Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders

(+) Yeah! (+)

WrestIeMania posted...

Senate +4
House -14
Governors -5

Enjoy the Red Wave today.

Thats quite a wave youve got there
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a million dem seats up for grabs

achieve a net gain of -15

RED WAVE
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Final PREDIX:

House: Dems +22ish.I know 538 has way more, but Im leaning more towards RCP for this. I usually like 538 but this is their first year doing this and I think theyre going to need a try to refine their formula as good as their other projections are. Im not sure how much all the extra stuff is going to play here. I know incumbent party in a midterm and all, but Trump has whipped up his base into a blind rage and panic and theyre going to turn out in a way I think will be unexpected in a midterm like this. I just have this feeling were going to be disappointed and come just sort of getting the house back.

Senate: Republicans +4 (maybe 3). They win all the obvious ones that arent really competitive in ND, TN, TX (although I do think TN will be closer than I thought). I think they hold both of their toss ups in AZ and NV (NV in particular will suck because we should win that easy if NV is staying blue in the future). AZ could go either way with the polling as it is, but I think Sinema falls just short which is a real shame. Then I think they win two democratic toss ups in MO, IN, and FL. I think we hold FL based on polling but the other two are likely losses. Im more certain of MO than IN but I think Indiana winds up being too red. THEN I think something weird will happen in one of MT, WV or maaaaaybe MI. I just dont think theres been nearly enough polling done in WV or MT to make me feel comfortable and the polls that were done showed MT close and WV tightening. And there has been some serious tightening in that MI race for some reason. I think thats still a hold but I am way more concerned today than two weeks ago.

I know that all sounds like worse case scenario and gloom and doom, but the polling hasnt given me a great reason to be optimistic and I never trust our side to show up when it matters.

BUT. I am optimistic about the governors. +10 for dems is my REACH PREDIX but I feel good about it for some reason. IL MI NM and Maine (ME?) are all gimmes. I think they sweep the lean dem toss ups of FL OH IA and WI. Wisconsin and Iowa are actually a bit less certain but polling has looked great in all those states. THEN I think they win two of NV, GA, Alaska (AK?), KS, SD (and maybe NH/OK instead). NV is a very slight dem lead and the others are all republican leans. But every single one of them outside of GA has been trending democrat for some time. And while Trump has been running around stumping for republican senators, the only two governors he has really targeted with the same fervor is Gillum and Abrams. I think this works to the Democrats favor and theyll wind up picking up some really competitive seats they normally wouldnt.

tl;dr
Yeah governors!
Eh house
BOO SENATE

Think you will get a few more house seats than you think and Senate seats.
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Anywhere in the range of +18 to + 35 wouldnt surprise me all that much in the house, so its possible! I am very not optimistic on the senate though and could even see us losing more than 4. Im hoping Im wrong obvi. Anywhere from -1 to -5 seems plausible.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/

Timeline of when all the important races close tonight!
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Im so upset.

Couldn't vote against Steve Chabot today. Forgot I live just outside district lines :/
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Suprak, you need to realize that if your prediction is right that the media is outright trying to push an agenda to brainwash Americans.

That said, I could see if polling errors exist that it would usually favor Republicans as they are the least likely to be on the internet or on cell phones than the democrats (who trend younger).
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What's a good site that live updates this stuff as it comes out?
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This topic
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I'm not gonna make any big numbers predictions. Don't really care to, and I'd mostly be making numbers up anyways.

But I will make one prediction for those of you who will be following results as they come in. If you're going to watch results for the Beto/Cruz race, keep an eye on the Tarrant County (Fort Worth) results in particular. I think the race as a whole will follow that county.

Reg posted...

I'm not gonna make any big numbers predictions. Don't really care to, and I'd mostly be making numbers up anyways.

But I will make one prediction for those of you who will be following results as they come in. If you're going to watch results for the Beto/Cruz race, keep an eye on the Tarrant County (Fort Worth) results in particular. I think the race as a whole will follow that county.

Cruz isn't losing. Wake up.
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Jakyl25 posted...

This topic

What if I don't want to see Ulti post in all caps every time a close race goes Red?
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LapisLazuli posted...

What's a good site that live updates this stuff as it comes out?

trump's twitter account
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

LapisLazuli posted...

What's a good site that live updates this stuff as it comes out?

trump's twitter account

LapisLazuli posted...

What if I don't want to see Ulti post in all caps every time a close race goes Red?

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touch
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wake up sheeple
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Ignore list?
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Ugh I just cleared it out to see what those idiots would say about the mail bombs.

Guess I could fill it back up again.
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LapisLazuli posted...

Ugh I just cleared it out to see what those idiots would say about the mail bombs.

Guess I could fill it back up again.

I imagine they complained about the medias feminist agenda for not calling them postal bombs.
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Just follow the 538 live feed.

It has baby animals.
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https://twitter.com/miamidolphins/status/1059533537718734851?s=21

The NFL has priorities dammit
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https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1059837147132321794?s=21

Sharing this solely for the headline
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Just voted quickly and painlessly (besides my ballot having literally like 45 things on it)

Now to wait...!
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Long ass line here. I think it is safe to say bud cook has achieved victory.
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Why are we still as a nation so logistically unprepared for Election Day?
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Long lines discourage young people

Around here, it's not a bug, it's a feature
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You would think they would discourage everyone across all demos
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I don't know about other places, to be fair

But where I live, if you're middle aged or older, you sit around and draw a check, so they have nothing better to do, so it pretty much actively only discourages young people

My mom works a poll center and she's witnessed first hand how... Let's just say certain people purposely make things take forever.
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I voted at around 8 this morning and didn't have to wait at all.

Parking was a pain though because I swear they could not have hid the lot to this building better if they'd tried. You basically had to turn onto what looked like a park trail as opposed to a real road in order to reach the lot, and there were no signs or anything.
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HashtagSEP posted...

My mom works a poll center and she's witnessed first hand how... Let's just say certain people purposely make things take forever.

Damn furries
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Corrik posted...

Suprak, you need to realize that if your prediction is right that the media is outright trying to push an agenda to brainwash Americans

Huh?
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

Suprak, you need to realize that if your prediction is right that the media is outright trying to push an agenda to brainwash Americans

Huh?

You know full well what I am saying.
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https://twitter.com/bernstein/status/1059553015944876032?s=21

Sharing this for the amazing top reply
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"I'm pessimistic"

"So then the MSM is lying and making up false statistics to usurp the president! Aha!"
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Can we not have another day of statistics for morons please
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Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

Suprak, you need to realize that if your prediction is right that the media is outright trying to push an agenda to brainwash Americans

Huh?

You know full well what I am saying.

I literally have no clue what youre talking about or how you got to fringe conspiracy theory based on a conservative, pessimistic interpretation of the polls!
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as if trump's twitter wasn't obnoxious enough, he retweeted like 20 tweets he posted himself over the past few days.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Why are we still as a nation so logistically unprepared for Election Day?

I don't get why it's not a day off for everyone a la Christmas. Or just move it to Sunday.

Sunday might be an issue for some religions
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https://twitter.com/actioncookbook/status/1059847089167966208?s=21

(In all seriousness though Im happy if people who made mistakes in the past work to improve things in the present)
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Jakyl25 posted...

Sunday might be an issue for some religions

Some places vote in churches too.
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/miamidolphins/status/1059533537718734851?s=21

The NFL has priorities dammit

Sorry Dolphins, I voted yes.

Anyway, went to my polling station and voted within 10 minutes.

It was painless.
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There was practically no line for me, but I live in a suburban area and I went around 1:30 so perfect timing.

Voting against that piece of shit Marsha Blackburn felt as satisfying as I had hoped.
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Even though hes still going to win, it felt good to vote against Matt Gaetz again.

That guy sucks.
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StartTheMachine posted...

There was practically no line for me, but I live in a suburban area and I went around 1:30 so perfect timing.

Voting against that piece of shit Marsha Blackburn felt as satisfying as I had hoped.

*Shakes head*
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Oh god, he's role-playing now.

Just when you thought these topics couldn't get worse
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Corrik posted...

StartTheMachine posted...

There was practically no line for me, but I live in a suburban area and I went around 1:30 so perfect timing.

Voting against that piece of shit Marsha Blackburn felt as satisfying as I had hoped.

*Shakes head*

oh please do tell what you're shaking your head at corrik my friend
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StartTheMachine posted...

Corrik posted...

StartTheMachine posted...

There was practically no line for me, but I live in a suburban area and I went around 1:30 so perfect timing.

Voting against that piece of shit Marsha Blackburn felt as satisfying as I had hoped.

*Shakes head*

oh please do tell what you're shaking your head at corrik my friend

I am shaking my head at calling someone a "piece of shit" because they do not have the same political opinions as you. I just don't get why people get so vile in regards to politics.
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Corrik posted...

I am shaking my head at calling someone a "piece of shit" because they do not have the same political opinions as you.

is it fair to say a nazi is a piece of shit?
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Toss-ups according to Predict It!

Tennesse senator: 0.84 republican/0.22 democratic
Ted Cruz reelected: 0.79 for yes/0.21 for no
Arizona senator: 0.59 republican/0.47 democratic
Heller reelected: 0.39 yes/0.61 no

Stabenow reelected: 0.78 yes/0.22 no
Manchin: 0.76 yes/0.24 no
Tester reelected: 0.61 yes/0.39 no
Nelson reelected: 0.59 yes/0.41 no
Donnelly reelected: 0.53 yes/0.47 no
McCaskill reelected: 0.38 yes/0.62 no
Heitkamp reelected: 0.16 yes/0.84 no

Current net of -1 for Dems with plenty of close races
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