Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1294

(+) Yeah! (+)

---

Once again - SMASHFEAR is Real.

Now just wait for King K.Rool to beat Shepherd in two days...
---

cyko posted...

Once again - SMASHFEAR is Real.

Now just wait for King K.Rool to beat Shepherd in two days...

I think I'd still take Shepard over Ocelot and Dedede over K. Rool

but this same darn thing happening almost every match is enough to make you have to worry about it anyway
---

Starting to worry that K. Rool will break 40% on Shepard. K. Rool's cool but Shepard doesn't deserve that ignominy.
---

In my opinion TIfa should be the favorite next round. I think she's proving today that her performance in 2013 was legit, or at least close to it. I figure Tifa overperformed a little against Samus. Even accounting for that overperformance I would say she's worth about 42% on Samus (which is what I would expect SONIC to get), and I don't think she could be much weaker than that. I think she has a great shot at winning the division. (Of course, Luigi and Mega Man X have a great shot too) I can't count Mewtwo out, of course... it's just that his potential floor is so much lower than Tifa's.

And about Dedede/Ocelot... what a match this is! Ocelot absolutely will not give up here. Go Ocelot!
---

I've already got my "Shephard put down the controller at the credits" joke for Why Did They Lose in case K Rool pulls the upset.
---

Sephiroth will either lose to Ryu or lose to Mario and then again to Luigi.
---

Sephiroth losing to Ryu would be a pretty insane decrease in strength from 2013. There's only so far FF7 can fall...I think.
---

Current fun with numbers!

If Luigi = Tifa = Mewtwo = Mega Man X

Geno beats Edgeworth with 60.35%
GlaDOS beats Edgeworth with 68.67%
Edgeworth beats Isabelle with 56.17%
GlaDOS beats Geno with 60.71%
Geno beats Isabelle with 65.06%
GlaDOS beats Isabelle with 72.54%
---

If Sephiroth fell as much as Vincent has, where would that put Sephiroth?
---

NFUN posted...

---

Tifa is doing well enough to where I am feeling a bit more better I took her over Mewtwo as one of my last switches, was feeling terribly about that until today, this gives her a decent chance vs Mewtwo next round.

Ocelot is still keeping it close for now, for better or worse we got a good match here today.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

If Sephiroth fell as much as Vincent has, where would that put Sephiroth?

the question is how much has Vincent actually fallen?

we won't really have an idea until round 2
---

So, did I miss some good talk on how beastly MMX looks right here?

I'll preemptively disagree with the notion that "literally no one cares about Isabelle" - not in the year of the Smash boost and mere weeks after she got her own trailer. This is also, I believe, the biggest percentage beatdown we've seen so far.

MMX finally proving to the doubters that he's Noble 9 tier.
---

CaptainOfCrush posted...

So, did I miss some good talk on how beastly MMX looks right here?

I don't think there was any to be found

the fact that Mega Man X can get 80% when literally nobody else has been able to is impressive but it also means Isabelle really sucks

both parties have to be complicit in this performance so I wouldn't overreact to it too much
---

the way I take K rool's strength is I take DK and then remove like 2-3 points from the xst, since the same guys that'd vote DK would probably vote Rool

what would y'all pin DK to score on Shepard? Like, 45%?
---

MMX is merely SFFing Isabelle, as I expected, so it's hard to get a good read based on that.

Mewtwo continues to tumble.... yep, I'm glad I took Tifa next round. TIfa vs. Pikachu - who would you expect to win?

Ocelot is slowly but surely chipping away at Dedede... intense. I'm expecting Ocelot to barely pull through to victory as he should be getting the night vote. I want Ocelot to win because he's the better character. Also, if we have Mega Man X vs. King Dedede next round it will most likely be another SFF fest, and the stats guys don't like SFF matches!

As for DK vs. Shephard, I might actually choose DK there. Waluigi exposed Aeris' weakness, and that in turn means Shepard was overrated, too... and I figure Shepard has fallen just like everyone else....
---

Haste_2 posted...

MMX is merely SFFing Isabelle

what
---

Ughhhhh, Dedede is on the move again
---

Ytterbicide posted...

the way I take K rool's strength is I take DK and then remove like 2-3 points from the xst, since the same guys that'd vote DK would probably vote Rool

what would y'all pin DK to score on Shepard? Like, 45%?

There's no way K. Rool is anywhere close to DK's strength.
---

LeonhartFour posted...

Haste_2 posted...

MMX is merely SFFing Isabelle

what

Haven't you seen what Mega Man characters in the past have done to weak Nintendo characters?
---

Pikachu would beat Tifa. And Mewtwo. And Luigi. And MMX.
---

Haste_2 posted...

Haven't you seen what Mega Man characters in the past have done to weak Nintendo characters?

key word here being weak

no need to call for SFF when Isabelle probably just sucks

it's not like it matters either way since Isabelle's a total unknown
---

ugh Restallver Lossalot has reared his ugly head
---

How did Ocelot go from barely losing to Red to barely losing to Dedede
---

LeonhartFour posted...

Haste_2 posted...

Haven't you seen what Mega Man characters in the past have done to weak Nintendo characters?

key word here being weak

no need to call for SFF when Isabelle probably just sucks

it's not like it matters either way since Isabelle's a total unknown

Yeah, but you'd think there'd be SOME residual energy from Smash cred and troll character rallying. Makes me wonder how CATS would've done against X.
---

squexa posted...

How did Ocelot go from barely losing to Red to barely losing to Dedede

Red didn't look that good in 2010 either.
---

KamikazePotato posted...

Pikachu would beat Tifa. And Mewtwo. And Luigi. And MMX.

MMX??? are you crazy??
---

Don't doubt the rat.

We asked him to save us in 2008 and he stole L-Block's power.

We made a mistake we can't take back.
---

Logience posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Haste_2 posted...

Haven't you seen what Mega Man characters in the past have done to weak Nintendo characters?

key word here being weak

no need to call for SFF when Isabelle probably just sucks

it's not like it matters either way since Isabelle's a total unknown

Yeah, but you'd think there'd be SOME residual energy from Smash cred and troll character rallying. Makes me wonder how CATS would've done against X.

CATS would be getting 85-15ed at the very least. X could probably even outdo Link, because that joke is dead in 2018.
---

I voted Ocelot out of apathy since I had him in my bracket, but if I knew there was an upset I would have gone Dedede. If he wins, its the most surprising result do far
---

is Ocelot underachieving and choking ever a surprise
---

SuperNiceDog posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Pikachu would beat Tifa. And Mewtwo. And Luigi. And MMX.

MMX??? are you crazy??

Pikachu has done nothing but bust heads for like three contest years straight, so yeah I'm fairly confident in that.
---

Pikachu was basically even with Crono last contest. I don't see why he can't beat X, especially if the rumors of Crono's decline have been severely exaggerated.
---

Crono would beat X with room to spare. X is being sorely overestimated here. He's strong, but he's not Noble Nine tier. He's more on par with guys like Luigi.
---

LeonhartFour posted...

is Ocelot underachieving and choking ever a surprise

Last time we saw Dedede, he lost to a pre-Uprising Pit. It's surprising to see the power of Smash 4 + Ultimate overcome that.
---

swirIdude posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

is Ocelot underachieving and choking ever a surprise

Last time we saw Dedede, he lost to a pre-Uprising Pit. It's surprising to see the power of Smash 4 + Ultimate overcome that.

Both Pit and Dedede were strong enough to stay above 10% despite causing a close match with Zero and Hayabusa (thus both were Last Place Factored as a result), so that match may not have been that bad for either of them.
---

So I've been refreshing every 5 minutes because I'm doing work at the computer so why not, and an interesting (but unsurprising) pattern I've seen is that DeDeDe's and Geno's updates are more or less in sync with one another. When DDD does well, Geno does well. When DDD doesn't, Geno doesn't. Kind of fun to see the shared fanbase come and go at certain times.

They might also be in sync with Mewtwo and Isabelle but I stopped paying attention to those matches.
---

Tom Nook had a very pitiful performance against Mega Man X and was part of the reason why I thought MMX/Isabelle would be SFF... granted, Tom Nook may have been a victim of 4th place factor.
---

KamikazePotato posted...

So I've been refreshing every 5 minutes because I'm doing work at the computer so why not, and an interesting (but unsurprising) pattern I've seen is that DeDeDe's and Geno's updates are more or less in sync with one another. When DDD does well, Geno does well. When DDD doesn't, Geno doesn't. Kind of fun to see the shared fanbase come and go at certain times.

They might also be in sync with Mewtwo and Isabelle but I stopped paying attention to those matches.

Actually, I noticed the same thing.If you look at 23:16 to 23:40, Geno, Dedede, and Isabelle all made a huge jump in percentage. But not Mewtwo. Perhaps a mini Smash rally somewhere?
---

And of course the Smash rally would hurt Mewtwo because Mewtwo is low-tier! Okay, so Dedede is as well, I think, forget I said anything.
---

it's because Mewtwo is a fraud
---

Haste_2 posted...

And of course the Smash rally would hurt Mewtwo because Mewtwo is low-tier! Okay, so Dedede is as well, I think, forget I said anything.

in Smash 4, Mewtwo is (currently) top tier, although he was low tier when he was released, and Dedede's bottom tier

weird thing.
---

LeonhartFour posted...

it's because Mewtwo is a fraud

We heard you the last 886 times.
---

that's the joke
---

wait i fucked up the loss dammit
---

https://imgur.com/ALyasg1 WISH I COULD TURN BACK TIME
---

Ocelot you've gotta stop getting caught reloading
---

NFUN posted...

wait i fucked up the loss dammit

I thought that was supposed to be "six shots, more than enough to kill anything that moves."
---

Dedede's lead finally breaks 200.
---