Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1293

(+) Yeah! (+)

I can't stop thinking about the most hilarious outcome: Vincent goes from nearly embarrassing himself here to invoking FF-SFF and beating Auron next round.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

LapisLazuli posted...

Auron, a character designed to be the most generic stock badass they could think of because they realized the entire rest of the cast was just a bunch of losers.

That's about as casual as it gets.

We need a Final Fantasy X-Zero so bad.

That sounds like a...

...wonderful idea! Jecht showed a surprising amount of strength when we got him into the bracket, too, and Auron has always been the strongest FFX character. A prequel to FFX would be amazing.

But, nope, Square just wants to release a bunch of spinoffs to each of their newest Final Fantasies. Even XV already has one, right?

Speaking of Square, the infrequency of Contests means we never got anything Bravely Default-related into a contest. I doubt it would've been that strong even when it was current but at least it might've stood a chance of being high fodder in 2014.

Well, okay, there's still GotD in 2020.
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Claire still pulls it off with her constipated face look!
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Auron isn't exactly impressing here, I thought he would be closer to 70%. Vincent can definitely beat him, FFVII>any other FF has usually been the case
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abdou posted...

Auron isn't exactly impressing here, I thought he would be closer to 70%. Vincent can definitely beat him, FFVII>any other FF has usually been the case

You have to remember the Lucina we saw in 2013 was pre-SSB4 and she wasn't horrible back then.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I can't stop thinking about the most hilarious outcome: Vincent goes from nearly embarrassing himself here to invoking FF-SFF and beating Auron next round.

I'm not buying it. Vincent isn't even a required character, and FFVII itself doesn't look quite as untouchable as it used to.

I know people used the "not even a required character" argument to doubt Vincent before he'd made his contest review, but I still feel like it could be a factor in why he's seemingly decayed faster than the other FFVII characters.

(Also because Dirge of Cerberus was horrible and could actually work against him.)
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abdou posted...

Auron isn't exactly impressing here, I thought he would be closer to 70%. Vincent can definitely beat him, FFVII>any other FF has usually been the case

Yeah, I feel that either Vincent or Magus can walk into Round 2 with some intangible advantages despite likely being weaker than Auron against a static opponent.

And a Vincent R2 win might make him more prone to anti-votes in R3 whiBAYONETTA DIVISION CHAMPION
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abdou posted...

Auron isn't exactly impressing here, I thought he would be closer to 70%.

I'm still expecting him to clear 65 at least
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Claire's doing better than I thought. Maybe she could win after all.

Considering that Tidus got crushed by DK, I think Auron's doing okay... he may be a bit weaker than he used to be, but nothing huge. I'm 97% sure Auron will beat Vincent. Also, Auron beat Aeris a few years ago, so the FFVII > FFX logic doesn't necessarily work.

Aeris vs. Vincent! Who wins?
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Wow, somehow everyone manages to look like shit here. The Smash boost is disgusting, in that all of these 5th tier characters are now viable midcards.
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Whoa, I just noticed that Claire is the Guru upset.

What the hell are you all smoking?
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Haste_2 posted...

Aeris vs. Vincent! Who wins?

I think 55 on Waluigi might be more impressive than 50 on Magus. Man, 2018 is weird.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Whoa, I just noticed that Claire is the Guru upset.

What the hell are you all smoking?

weed
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Whoa, I just noticed that Claire is the Guru upset.

What the hell are you all smoking?

man getting a 48-52 match wrong is never shameful
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Whoa, I just noticed that Claire is the Guru upset.

What the hell are you all smoking?

People thought Joker was going be referred to as Ren and get no votes
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Yeah, this is starting to look like Vincent and Claire are soaring ahead.

Magus just cut three updates in a row!

abdou posted...

Auron isn't exactly impressing here, I thought he would be closer to 70%. Vincent can definitely beat him, FFVII>any other FF has usually been the case

Underestimate FE at your own risk. It's far from an elite franchise but I think it's finally become mainstream enough that its top characters avoid being fodder! ...Though it's hard to tell because most of the characters with enough strength to make a bracket also have Smash on their side.

Okay, we need to figure out how strong Fire Emblem is without Smash behind it. Starting the Hector for CBXI rally right here and now.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Whoa, I just noticed that Claire is the Guru upset.

What the hell are you all smoking?

I mean if it's a Joker pic then the result could probably flip

I picked Claire, but I wouldn't be embarrassed for picking Ren by any stretch of the imagination

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Yeah, this is starting to look like Vincent and Claire are soaring ahead.

Magus just cut three updates in a row!

abdou posted...

Auron isn't exactly impressing here, I thought he would be closer to 70%. Vincent can definitely beat him, FFVII>any other FF has usually been the case

Underestimate FE at your own risk. It's far from an elite franchise but I think it's finally become mainstream enough that its top characters avoid being fodder! ...Though it's hard to tell because most of the characters with enough strength to make a bracket also have Smash on their side.

Okay, we need to figure out how strong Fire Emblem is without Smash behind it. Starting the Hector for CBXI rally right here and now.

Tharja barely won in 2013 over Tiny Tina. Fire Emblem without Smash still has a long way to go.

Welp, if these current percentages hold, I'll be 4/4 for today.

G'nite all.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Haste_2 posted...

Aeris vs. Vincent! Who wins?

I think 55 on Waluigi might be more impressive than 50 on Magus. Man, 2018 is weird.

Except which of those wins is more impressive is irrelevant to how an actual 1v1 would go, because indirect strength =/= outcomes of direct SFF matches. Pretty sure that even in his Noble Nine-breaking prime Vincent would've still struggled with Tifa or Aerith.
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Speaking of which...

- Leon looked great
- Jill performed well against a Fox who's probably favored to beat Aeris
- Claire may get her first contest win against a (handicapped and weak) 2-seed
- Wesker could look respectable against an anti-voted elite

May be a good contest for ol' RE!

(don't ask about the boulder puncher)
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Im legit wondering if Bayonetta has a shot at winning the division
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VeryInsane posted...

Im legit wondering if Bayonetta has a shot at winning the division

i'm okay with this if it happens
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Hey Subby, could you do me a solid and go above 60 for the spread, please?
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Speaking of which...

- Leon looked great
- Jill performed well against a Fox who's probably favored to beat Aeris
- Claire may get her first contest win against a (handicapped and weak) 2-seed
- Wesker could look respectable against an anti-voted elite

May be a good contest for ol' RE!

(don't ask about the boulder puncher)

... Huh. I honestly didn't realize that Claire didn't have a win yet. Looking back at her history, she's never really done badly in a match either.

And it's funny, Jill's performance against Fox was what ultimately led me to switch my Oracle to match my bracket (which is to say, to pick Joker.) The name controversy only led to me increasing my percentage for him. I thought that seemed like a bad performance for her. I mean, I love Star Fox 64 but Nintendo's handling of the franchise since then rivals anything that Square's done (though it still pales in comparison to Capcom) and Fox will forever be associated with those weirdos who think that tournament-level Smash is the only Smash.

...Oh, right, 90sFAQs. SF64 is all Fox needs.
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Fox is in Claire's camp in that he's never had many opportunities to showcase his strength. He was thrown to Cloud and Link in the early years when those guys could triple anything, then he's been in a bunch of wonky SFF matches since then. The match against Jill was, believe it or not, his first 1v1 match against another micarder and he did great.

He'll have another opportunity to shine in R3, and I think he will. If Nintendo is boosting as much as the last few weeks lead us to believe, then Fox will be a beneficiary for sure. The dude's been on the Nintendo B-Team for 25 years.
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Vincent was the official Noble Nine breaker, defeating Crono in a close match from 2007.

And now this. Wow.

I thought this match was just set up as a troll move...didn't really expect it to be a good match. We still need to see Frog and Crono to compare with CT's boosting, but also 57% on Waluigi and 50.2% on Magus are not acceptable numbers from the FF7-power we once knew. Cloud should be okay with SSB, but Sephiroth is in bad trouble and I don't think First Crush Factor alone will save Tifa either.
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Hey, Claire was #13 in the 2002 x-stats! Maybe Joker is an elite character that got a horrible draw!
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Sephiroth may have been unceremoniously dumped from the Legends bracket, but he won the main bracket lottery. He'll face opponents who may take advantage of anti-voting to embarrass him a little (Falcon, Amaterasu, maaaaybe Wesker), but the only one in Division 8 with even an outside shot at the upset is Ryu... and man would that be sad.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Hey, Claire was #13 in the 2002 x-stats! Maybe Joker is an elite character that got a horrible draw!

Heh, I do remember that. First stats are best stats.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Sephiroth may have been unceremoniously dumped from the Legends bracket, but he won the main bracket lottery. He'll face opponents who may take advantage of anti-voting to embarrass him a little (Falcon, Amaterasu, maaaaybe Wesker), but the only one in Division 8 with even an outside shot at the upset is Ryu... and man would that be sad.

Sad, you say?

I'd 1,000% rather watch Seph lose to Ryu than fucking Luigi or have his perfect record against Mario take a blemish.
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If only Ryu had a big new game since the last contest--OH WAIT STREET FIGHTER 5 SON

oh and also Smash

I wanna see the rest of this round to be safe, but today is the first day Ryu > Sephiroth made sense for me.
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HaRRicH posted...

I wanna see the rest of this round to be safe, but today is the first day Ryu > Sephiroth made sense.

Let me tell you son if I come full circle and win the contest because I picked Sephiroth to LOSE, that will be a better redemption story than Magus.
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How ironic would it be if it was Tifa who was in fact the fraud
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Wait what? There's a new Street Fighter Game?

Oh, right, there's a Street Fighter 5 and it's been out for years, but that's still since our last contest. Damnit Allen!
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naw, my bracket is such a mess elsewhere that if I get Ryu > Seph right it will just pull me back up from the grave.
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Vivi > Ganon is that for me
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Leon > Vivi will have me ahead of you by that point! =P
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I'm taking a trip down contest memory lane, and apart from letting Kratos beat her in 2008 (because Seph was in the poll and laid an SFF beatdown), Tifa has never had a match match. She dispatches midcarders with ease, obliterates fodder, and only loses - and very respectably - to Noble 9ers. Be a shame if such a bountiful history were deflated by a Pokemon 60/40.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

(But seriously, SMT is a great series. I tend to favor the obscure stuff over mainstream stuff anyway so it's no surprise that I'd like it!)

SMT is awesome. The easy Final Fantasy combat just doesn't do it for me any more, by comparison.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Leon > Vivi will have me ahead of you by that point! =P

lol...good luck with that
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The UK is going pretty hard for Vincent, it's hard to think Magus builds any kind of lead at night. Canada looks like they are countering them. The US is going 50/50 so if the nation breaks for one character that'll be the end of it.
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The nature of this low voting affair probably means Magus/Vincent will be in the running for greatest amount of time with a tiny vote differential?
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How the fuck is Magus not beating the everliving shit out Vincent? Come on guys! Its Chrono Trigger vs FFVII here, whats the competition? There is none!
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is there a rally going on, the votals seem a bit high
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Claire going to pull the match beyond Joker's reach, hard to see Joker come back from this now.

Magus really needs to be building a lead to have any chance of getting through the tankage that CT characters seem to have coming up, though who the hell knows, I feel like this is a combo of CT boosting with FF7 falling even further on top.

I feel like if the old trends hold Vincent is probably favorite, but I am rooting for my bracket to lose hard here, want Magus to win so bad.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Lots of blue in Europe. Joker probably comes back before the morning vote kills him.

The UK is solidly red though, which is what really matters, so I think Joker's about done.
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We're a few hundred ahead of yesterday.
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Heh, Magus and Vincent had back-to-back 62% updates.
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