Board 8 > * 2018 CBX Guru Contest - Results, Discussions and Eliminations, Part One *

(+) Yeah! (+)

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Man, I am not even considered for an elimination yet this season! This contest is mine!

Me too!

Too bad I'm gonna be eliminated at the very end when Mario destroys Cloud. At least that's what I think I need to be elim'd.
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Eliminations for the current battles:

Link+Cloud Strife:
Ngamer
TRE
MarioSuperstar
Sniperdog

Link+Crono:
Ngamer
dimi
linkhatesganon
hylianknight3
BK_Sheikah00
XIII
cyko
trogita
Advokaiser
handsomeboy
Sniperdog
OrangeCrush980
Xuxon
DrFootball
alblito
MMXcalibur
CasanovaZelos

Pikachu+Cloud Strife:
dimi
TRE
linkhatesganon
MarioSuperstar
cyko
Xuxon
MMXcalibur

Pikachu+Crono:
dimi
linkhatesganon
hylianknight3
BK_Sheikah00
cyko
Advokaiser
handsomeboy
OrangeCrush980
Xuxon
DrFootball
alblito
MMXcalibur

Finally the end of the road for me. My bracket has been effectively dead for a long, long time due to backing Snake but I'm still a bit sad to finally be officially eliminated.
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Fun fact: The only Guru with a technically nonzero chance of scoring full points tomorrow is Mr. Bad Picks.
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You know what I just realized? I'm going to get officially eliminated by a match where I actually picked the (presumptive) correct winner. I am really not sure how to feel about this.

MetalmindStats posted...

You know what I just realized? I'm going to get officially eliminated by a match where I actually picked the (presumptive) correct winner. I am really not sure how to feel about this.

I think that's mathematically impossible. Are you sure?
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

MetalmindStats posted...

You know what I just realized? I'm going to get officially eliminated by a match where I actually picked the (presumptive) correct winner. I am really not sure how to feel about this.

I think that's mathematically impossible. Are you sure?

I'm not 100% confident, but I'm pretty sure Samus eliminating Snake from the loser's bracket will knock me out, given all the matches I had him winning, particularly the grand finals. I did pick Samus in that loser's round 3 match, but I had Geralt getting there on the other side and Snake putting together a much better run in the legends bracket.

Wow, up to elimination just now! Good thing I'm safe now given how the matches are going.
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

I think that's mathematically impossible. Are you sure?

I don't know much about it but I'd guess it might be possible if Bracket A had Character C losing next round while Bracket B had Character C losing much later, Character C winning a match that Bracket A and Bracket B both had Character C winning could be worse for Bracket A if the two brackets are otherwise close enough.
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Nooooooooo! Well I couldn't have asked for anything more- between the nostalgic sprite, Surprised Pikachu, the hot-selling new game, and the cool new movie Pika's never going to peak higher. And he STILL can't keep The King under 60! Not a bad way to go down.


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Ngamer64 posted...

Nooooooooo! Well I couldn't have asked for anything more- between the nostalgic sprite, Surprised Pikachu, the hot-selling new game, and the cool new movie Pika's never going to peak higher. And he STILL can't keep The King under 60! Not a bad way to go down.

If the rumors about the Detective Pikachu movie being rated PG-13 become reality, Pikachu has the opportunity to say "fuck".

That would absolutely boost him in CBXI because we would never forget the moment Pikachu became hardcore.
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swirIdude posted...

Ngamer64 posted...

Nooooooooo! Well I couldn't have asked for anything more- between the nostalgic sprite, Surprised Pikachu, the hot-selling new game, and the cool new movie Pika's never going to peak higher. And he STILL can't keep The King under 60! Not a bad way to go down.

If the rumors about the Detective Pikachu movie being rated PG-13 become reality, Pikachu has the opportunity to say "fuck".

That would absolutely boost him in CBXI because we would never forget the moment Pikachu became hardcore.

I mean, it blew our minds that Pikachu just recently spoke at all for the first time. If the rat starts cursing, the sky is the limit.
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Hopefully everything's accurate. I eliminated the picks that are impossible.
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scaryice posted...

Hopefully everything's accurate. I eliminated the picks that are impossible.

Basically this spreadsheet needs to show what results need to happen for every Alive person to win?
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swirIdude posted...

Ngamer64 posted...

Nooooooooo! Well I couldn't have asked for anything more- between the nostalgic sprite, Surprised Pikachu, the hot-selling new game, and the cool new movie Pika's never going to peak higher. And he STILL can't keep The King under 60! Not a bad way to go down.

If the rumors about the Detective Pikachu movie being rated PG-13 become reality, Pikachu has the opportunity to say "fuck".

That would absolutely boost him in CBXI because we would never forget the moment Pikachu became hardcore.

Yeah that could be the difference between this and a contest win

Question: would Samus beating Mario help me here? Because Mario then drops to losers like I said, but I had Mario losing to Snake a round later.
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Those are just the actual picks for everyone.
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OrangeCrush980 posted...

INTERWEBUSER posted...

I think that's mathematically impossible. Are you sure?

I don't know much about it but I'd guess it might be possible if Bracket A had Character C losing next round while Bracket B had Character C losing much later, Character C winning a match that Bracket A and Bracket B both had Character C winning could be worse for Bracket A if the two brackets are otherwise close enough.

In this case the elimination would have happened prior to this match. Because eliminations can only occur taking into account different picks between Brackets A and B, with the deficit (Score A - Score B) too large to overcome from the remaining picks that are different between the two brackets.
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Tomorrow's eliminations:

Zelda+Samus Aran:
chocoboslayer

Zelda+Mario:
Ranticoot
Wreath
cyko
trogita
CasanovaZelos

Sonic the Hedgehog+Samus Aran:
hylianknight3
handsomeboy
DrFootball
chocoboslayer

Sonic the Hedgehog+Mario:
Ranticoot
hylianknight3
Wreath
cyko
trogita
handsomeboy
DrFootball
CasanovaZelos

i like this world where it's this far in a contest and i'm not dead and buried
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scaryice posted...

Hopefully everything's accurate. I eliminated the picks that are impossible.

Wow, I'm the only one who has Cloud beating Mario?

This is bad...
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

OrangeCrush980 posted...

INTERWEBUSER posted...

I think that's mathematically impossible. Are you sure?

I don't know much about it but I'd guess it might be possible if Bracket A had Character C losing next round while Bracket B had Character C losing much later, Character C winning a match that Bracket A and Bracket B both had Character C winning could be worse for Bracket A if the two brackets are otherwise close enough.

In this case the elimination would have happened prior to this match. Because eliminations can only occur taking into account different picks between Brackets A and B, with the deficit (Score A - Score B) too large to overcome from the remaining picks that are different between the two brackets.

No, no, I get it.

If he had Samus winning that match, but no further matches, while Snake he had losing his first match later and then winning multiple losers' bracket matches, it'd be better for his bracket to get that wrong than to get it right.
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Why are the points so out of whack with the official leader board
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I think all of the legends bracket stuff is being counted double
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Ah, isn't that a bit problematic?
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The scoring algorithm is goofed, I'll fix it as soon as I get a SPARE SECOND.

EDIT - But that's just for the site, Shadow's scoring system is correct so you can trust all eliminations posted.
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so who's favorite to win now? Spike?
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SuperNiceDog posted...

so who's favorite to win now? Spike?

Only if mega man wins tomorrow. He has mm going quite far in his loser bracket.
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Looks like Zelda is clear. Since Samus is right at the border of being out of it but not completely dead, I included that battle again to cover all bases.
Samus Aran+Mega Man+Bowser:
dimi
linkhatesganon
SecretSquirrel
BK_Sheikah00
Wreath
trogita
Advokaiser
DrFootball
MMXcalibur
chocoboslayer

Samus Aran+Mega Man+Crono:
linkhatesganon
trogita
handsomeboy
OrangeCrush980
Xuxon
alblito
MMXcalibur
chocoboslayer
CasanovaZelos

Samus Aran+Pikachu+Bowser:
dimi
SecretSquirrel
BK_Sheikah00
Wreath
Advokaiser
DrFootball
chocoboslayer

Samus Aran+Pikachu+Crono:
linkhatesganon
handsomeboy
OrangeCrush980
Xuxon
alblito
MMXcalibur
chocoboslayer
CasanovaZelos

Mario+Mega Man+Bowser:
Ranticoot
dimi
linkhatesganon
BK_Sheikah00
Wreath
cyko
trogita
Advokaiser
DrFootball
MMXcalibur
CasanovaZelos

Mario+Mega Man+Crono:
Ranticoot
linkhatesganon
Wreath
cyko
trogita
handsomeboy
OrangeCrush980
Xuxon
alblito
MMXcalibur
CasanovaZelos

Mario+Pikachu+Bowser:
Ranticoot
dimi
BK_Sheikah00
Wreath
cyko
trogita
Advokaiser
DrFootball
CasanovaZelos

Mario+Pikachu+Crono:
Ranticoot
linkhatesganon
Wreath
cyko
trogita
handsomeboy
OrangeCrush980
Xuxon
alblito
MMXcalibur
CasanovaZelos

@NowItsAngeTime - double checked my list of living brackets against the list on the guru site, and fpce666 should be dead right now (from Zelda > Aerith). Everything else matches though.

INTERWEBUSER posted...

SuperNiceDog posted...

so who's favorite to win now? Spike?

Only if mega man wins tomorrow. He has mm going quite far in his loser bracket.

Counterpoint - if Pikachu wins (and even if pikachu keeps winning), no one of consequence makes up those points on him, so who cares?

As far as favorites, I'd probably say SpikeDragon, then dimi at this point - if SecretSquirrel had Link > Mario in grand finals, that bracket would have a good shot too.

That being said, wait until we get Pikachu > Cloud and Zelda > Samus in 145/146 and nobody gets any points there!

NewerShadow posted...

double checked my list of living brackets against the list on the guru site, and fpce666 should be dead right now (from Zelda > Aerith). Everything else matches though.

done
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NewerShadow posted...

As far as favorites, I'd probably say SpikeDragon, then dimi at this point - if SecretSquirrel had Link > Mario in grand finals, that bracket would have a good shot too.

@_SecretSquirrel Hmmmmm sounds like that could be a bit of a missed opportunity from the greatone...

Okay I've PERFECTED the scoring on the Guru site. (Or at least, it's showing the current score for both me and Spike, so I'll foolishly assume so.)

Hey Shadow, would the Cookie still be alive if it was a real person?

http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=2


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Ngamer64 posted...

@_SecretSquirrel Hmmmmm sounds like that could be a bit of a missed opportunity from the greatone...

Well, only if things go as expected. My Mario > Link hyper risk considered things like Smash's release causing disruptions to the Nintendo heiarchy, as well as Mario occupying the final three matches in a row, coupled with Final Match weirdness could cause a perfect storm of effects for a Mario runback on Link. None of these have been implicitly ruled out yet...

Though, I probably wouldn't have gone with this if I had known the rest of my bracket was good enough to stand as a plausible low-tier prize winner without the Mario upset.
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Ngamer64 posted...

NewerShadow posted...

As far as favorites, I'd probably say SpikeDragon, then dimi at this point - if SecretSquirrel had Link > Mario in grand finals, that bracket would have a good shot too.

@_SecretSquirrel Hmmmmm sounds like that could be a bit of a missed opportunity from the greatone...

Okay I've PERFECTED the scoring on the Guru site. (Or at least, it's showing the current score for both me and Spike, so I'll foolishly assume so.)

Hey Shadow, would the Cookie still be alive if it was a real person?

http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=2

Yes, it is still alive.
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Updated with today's results:


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Ngamer64 posted...

Hey Shadow, would the Cookie still be alive if it was a real person?

http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=2

Yes, but a Bowser > Crono result would eliminate it.

Question: Would I still be alive if I had Mario > Cloud in match 149?
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Advokaiser posted...

Question: Would I still be alive if I had Mario > Cloud in match 149?

Probably not. I think that match is keeping you alive right now, since youre currently 29 points back of SpikeDragon with only 32 points different, and cloud in 149 is 8 of those points.

This is my program's output for tonight's matches, assuming there isn't any Pikachu nonsense today:

Solid Snake+Tifa Lockheart:
dimi
hylianknight3
BK_Sheikah00
DrFootball

Solid Snake+Samus Aran:
hylianknight3
DrFootball

Sonic the Hedgehog+Tifa Lockheart:
dimi
MetalmindStats
BK_Sheikah00
DrFootball
COOKIE

Sonic the Hedgehog+Samus Aran:
MetalmindStats
DrFootball
COOKIE

Yes, DrFootball appears in all 4 branches. I'm not sure this is a mistake, I think it's just losers bracket weirdness. In the Snake branches, he loses to MetalmindStats; in the Sonic branches it's to XIII.

i was a dead man walking forever with D.Va winning the whole thing but finally actually eliminated. looks like i was the longest-lasting bracket that had a rally winner, if nothing else.
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Thinking ahead a bit... Let's assume that Snake/Samus win today, Link/Mario win over Cloud/Zelda, and Link wins the contest (beating Mario in the winner's final). That's 6/12 matches where the result is not too much in doubt, and assuming those results, only 4 people can win:

SpikeDragon
dimi
Advokaiser
BK_Sheikah00

That leaves 6 matches left, and all four have have Samus in match 144, so really only 5.

1) BK_Sheikah00 needs all the following results to win:

Chrono d. Mega Man
Chrono d. Cloud
Samus d. Zelda
Chrono d. Samus
Chrono d. Mario

Plus, all that would only tie him with SpikeDragon, and his tiebreaker is way too high.

2) Advokaiser needs:

Chrono d. Mega Man
Cloud d. Chrono
Cloud d. Samus/Snake/Zelda
Cloud d. Mario

3) dimi needs:

Chrono d. Mega Man
Cloud d. Chrono
Samus d. Zelda
Samus d. Cloud
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So let's say Zelda wins against Mario >_>;;;

Am I going to win if that happens?
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Itd be hilarious if COOKIE ends up winning the competition

Go COOKIE!
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would this be the first two time winner for BK_Sheikah if he does it again?
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

would this be the first two time winner for BK_Sheikah if he does it again?

That's right, we haven't had any repeat Guru winners.
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: (
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So... Am... Am I really one of the 4 potential winners?!

*puts on sunglasses*

Let's do this!
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Dr_Football posted...

: (

Sorry man, I feel your pain.
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Where to rally Crono besides gamefaqs.gamespot.com
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BK_Sheikah00 posted...

Where to rally Crono besides gamefaqs.gamespot.com

@Whiskey_Nick 's facebook page.
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So basically BKSheikah needs Crono, Advokaiser needs Cloud, dimi needs Samus, SpikeDragon needs Mario, XIII needs Zelda?
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