Board 8 > * The Show EP 2 - Epic Breakdown of World's Biggest Bracket!, w/ yo & Leon *

(+) Yeah! (+)

azuarc posted...

NowItsAngeTime posted...

I'm asking yoblazer for HIS opinion on it

I linked to it because it's a discussion topic for the game, with spoilers. I figured it makes more sense to post thoughts there, whether you're yoblazer or anyone else.

I already read it and Ultis
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Oh. I guess I need to take Ulti off ignore since contest > Hearthstone.
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I think I've about finalized my picks. Considering flipping from Simon to Hayabusa, but I'm close enough to 50/50 on that that I don't know if I want to change my bracket finalization time for the purposes of leaderboard listings (I always end up editing at the last second and then not being on the leaderboard forever despite being tied for a rank that's on it).
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if you start listening right now by the time you finish it'll be only 30 minutes until the first contest match
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I'll have you know, I'm taking your recommendations extremely seriously, Leon. You better not let me down.
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i modeled my 2013 bracket after leon's opinions but changed a few things and i came really close to winning Guru

fucking charizard

#fraud
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can you bring back "infidel and divine prophet of the week?"

With the music
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hey I had Zelda > Charizard so don't blame me for that one in particular...!
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when i recorded my episode NG said he had switched to a new recording software that didn't allow him to play music during the episode, so it might be a little hard to have music mid-ep now
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LeonhartFour posted...

hey I had Zelda > Charizard so don't blame me for that one in particular...!

i'm not! that was a complete zen fuck up
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You can always have music... in your heart!
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Well on the one hand SB's really encouraging (forcing?) picks for all 4 characters, which will be nice for votals. On the downside we've got default match pics at least for R1... and it appears Poll of the Day is going to continue all through the bracket? Little awkward, hope people don't see that and scroll past the actual matches without realizing they're going on, or my high votal pred is RUINED!


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oops i thought the contest started tomorrow I didnt do guru/spread/oracle/streak
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Ngamer64 posted...

Well on the one hand SB's really encouraging (forcing?) picks for all 4 characters, which will be nice for votals. On the downside we've got default match pics at least for R1... and it appears Poll of the Day is going to continue all through the bracket? Little awkward, hope people don't see that and scroll past the actual matches without realizing they're going on, or my high votal pred is RUINED!

I suspect that only today's PotD will continue to run normally (ending at its usual time of 12:00 AM), and then the PotD should disappear for the rest of the contest (with the exception of the 6 day Thanksgiving break). During the 6 day Thankgiving break, I expect the PotD to return again while there are no matches going on.
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Looks like we're going to continue having the Poll of the Day during the contest, the first time that's ever happened. Given the early vote on today's poll, I see no evidence to suggest that the regular poll is getting higher vote totals because more people are checking out the homepage because of the contest.
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btw if you'd like me as a guest on any episode i would be happy to oblige! If not and you're already overbooked thats ok too!
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I would also like to be a guest
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I would really like to be on, but y'all gotta get to me ahead of time so I can make it work with my work schedule.
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Your multiple Top 2 UotY finishes should get you on eventually.

I have been waiting 3000 years, but I will keep up my tradition of signing up and being passed over until this website shuts down.
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we've got 2 months' worth of content to fill so I doubt Ng's overbooked yet
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no Show Curse yet
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LeonhartFour posted...

we've got 2 months' worth of content to fill so I doubt Ng's overbooked yet

There are probably dozens of people who would accept an invite, though.
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"Dozens" is probably a bit too generous.
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swirIdude posted...

Your multiple Top 2 UotY finishes should get you on eventually.

I have been waiting 3000 years, but I will keep up my tradition of signing up and being passed over until this website shuts down.

I feel like they go by me being entertaining when I'm on the show, but my UoTY history probably helps.
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there are dozens of us!
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LeonhartFour posted...

"Dozens" is probably a bit too generous.

I suspect there are at least 24. 24 good choices, perhaps not, but certainly 24 if you set no qualifiers.
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Id probably be a guest, Ill just have to know ahead of time so Im not too drunk.
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It's a little humbling that Ng picked me to co-host after Ed stepped down. There are quite a few guests we've had over the years who I feel would do at least as good a job as me. And even if we can't fit everybody (I've really enjoyed the episodes where we've had 4 people chatting, but I could understand them feeling a little too cluttered), please know that I've had a fucking blast podcasting with everyone who's been on in the past.
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azuarc posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

"Dozens" is probably a bit too generous.

I suspect there are at least 24. 24 good choices, perhaps not, but certainly 24 if you set no qualifiers.

Well, there are probably dozens Ng would like to have on, but a lot of people don't want to be on.
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If today was any indication, the perfect tiebreaker for this season was

3.95 million

Well, at least Luster got us halfway there!


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Ah HA, so brackets were the only thing keeping Tidus from drowning in those first couples minutes.

That's it, I think I'm officially in love with doublevoting.


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Did someone say Being A Guest On The Show?
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7221 brackets sent in

8819 day one votes came in from GameFAQs users
8764 day one votes came in from randos off the street

Just as I suspected! SB's "1/3rd of votes cast are from GameFAQs people" quote took into account how that particular contest had gone off the rails with rallies post-Draven explosion. Under normal circumstances we're close to a perfect 50/50, giving the "Board 8 Factor" more of a bump than some people may have factored into their brackets.

81.71% for Dante
80.74% for Lightning
55.02% for Chun-Li
92.41% for Ganondorf

Jeepers that's a massive amount of respect for Cuphead versus a number one seed! Shame it didn't translate into votes... The low number for Chunners isn't bad when you consider she was stuck with a 12 seed. And impressive work from the casuals in not falling for a 50/50 split on the 8 versus 9 matchup.


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Ngamer64 posted...

If today was any indication, the perfect tiebreaker for this season was

3.95 million

Well, at least Luster got us halfway there!

Remember, the vote totals on the poll results page includes the registered user bonus already applied. The tiebreaker question asks you to guess the combined number of votes over all 150 matches (ignoring the registered user bonus). I've already figured out the actual vote totals for yesterday's matches without factoring in the registered user bonus.

Overall vote totals (without the bonus) on the first day of matches - 17575, 17581, 17578, 17581

That's roughly an average of 17579 votes for the first day of matches. With 150 matches, we are on track for a total of 2636850 votes for the entire contest. This is only slightly higher than the upper limit of my projected range. We should also see higher vote totals in the later rounds after we move from 4 matches per day to 2 matches per day.

Back in the 2015 contest, there was an increase in vote totals as a result of going from 4 matches per day to 2 matches per day. I imagine there was another increase in vote totals going from 2 matches per day to 1 match per day, but it was impossible to determine with all the rallying in the later rounds of 2015. But in the Years contest, we did get a boost in vote totals when going from 2 matches per day to 1 match per day.
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Oh YEAH I forgot about the doubled votes not counting for the purposes of the tiebreaker, my bad.

That means my TB is literally perfect (2.6 million). Thanks Luster!


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Ngamer64 posted...

7221 brackets sent in

Despite all of the effort that SB put into promoting this contest, we end up with a career low in brackets submitted for a Character Battle (Years had a lower overall total with 4102 brackets). We had a banner on almost every single page across the site promoting the contest, we even had a regular site alert for close to 2 weeks, and then we had a yellow site alert for roughly the final 24 hours of the entry period.

Ngamer64 posted...

Just as I suspected! SB's "1/3rd of votes cast are from GameFAQs people" quote took into account how that particular contest had gone off the rails with rallies post-Draven explosion. Under normal circumstances we're close to a perfect 50/50, giving the "Board 8 Factor" more of a bump than some people may have factored into their brackets.

We did have higher vote totals back in 2013 than we do right now, so the 2013 contest might have gotten more votes from random people visiting the site for the first time compared to this contest. Almost all of the collapse in vote totals we've seen since 2010 is the result of fewer and fewer first time site visitors voting in the polls.
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Yes here's more info on brackets submitted over time, for those fascinated by the subject.

https://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Most_Anticipated_Contests


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Based on the Tidus/DK match, the board vote was 78.16% registered users. This dropped down to 65.86% registered users by the end of the Power Hour. I have to guess some of the later time periods have to under 50% registered users as we were roughly at 50% registered users for yesterday's matches.

I will try to research the registered user percentage for every single hour of the match, and for the new time periods that Leon invented for this contest due to the new starting time.
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What I said in the Oracle topic, to get it on record-

Gosh this must be the most back-and-forth day in Oracle history, never seen so many picks for both sides in multiple matches. Usually matches are heavily debated in the bracket stage but a board consensus has formed by the time voting arrives... not seeing anything like that for these!


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It's crazy but somehow the number one talking point on a video game website in 2018 has become Pac-Man. Leon called him the ultimate fodderline pre-Contest in that everyone knows him and has decided on him so his strength hasn't changed since 2002. Yet now we're dealing with the Pac-Man Factor- everyone is being forced to vote in all four matches, resulting in a significant boost to recognizable, well known characters who can be immediately identified. (At least here in the early rounds, when they're going up against newer characters most of the site isn't familiar with.)

Sad news for my bracket: that means both of this year's dominant factors are trending against Monika. Doki Doki has done well for itself given its origins but it will still have a very low playrate, and although no one loves Wario it's not like anyone would have trouble picking him out of a police lineup either. Then he's got the Nintendo fanbase double voting and casual bracket double voting on top of that to seal the deal and put this out of reach.

Happy news for my bracket: I can't believe how passionate these Doki fans still are, even (perhaps?) a year or so after their game should have "peaked". They've made 50 new topics and something like 500 new posts on their subreddit just in the last four hours... and these aren't low effort one liners, it's all kinds of original art and edited art and weird memes and people trying to bake cookies that look like the four girls. Okay, full disclosure, SOME of it is pretty low content

I just argued with my dad for 10 minutes in a store for whether or not I could get a Monika shirt!

But shaking your head or not, you can't deny that young poster's passion!

All things considered I'm sticking with my bracket, as I think we're going to see some real fireworks tonight.


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Tonight's matches have me worried. Especially since I decided to ride the Monika train.

Ngamer64 posted...

Yet now we're dealing with the Pac-Man Factor- everyone is being forced to vote in all four matches, resulting in a significant boost to recognizable, well known characters who can be immediately identified. (At least here in the early rounds, when they're going up against newer characters most of the site isn't familiar with.)

As soon as I heard about this, I was wondering who it would end up biting in the ass the most. And the answer is obvious: niche characters who are up against mid- or low-tier Nintendo characters. i.e., Monika. I almost have to wonder if this was part of sb's plan to thwart rallies. If it wasn't, it sure worked out that way.
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the character who's really boned (well more than he already is) now is Kazuma

Bomberman gonna rack up those Pac-Man Apathy Votes like nobody's business
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Ngamer64 posted...

It's crazy but somehow the number one talking point on a video game website in 2018 has become Pac-Man. Leon called him the ultimate fodderline pre-Contest in that everyone knows him and has decided on him so his strength hasn't changed since 2002. Yet now we're dealing with the Pac-Man Factor- everyone is being forced to vote in all four matches, resulting in a significant boost to recognizable, well known characters who can be immediately identified. (At least here in the early rounds, when they're going up against newer characters most of the site isn't familiar with.)

Leon originally proposed "Voter Apathy Factor" for this thing you are talking about.

Forcing people to vote in all 4 matches might be okay for a Character Battle where someone can vote for the characters they recognize, but I don't think this would be a good idea for a Games Contest. With games, it's a lot harder to sell people on the idea of voting for a game they've never played, so this forced voting in all matches could hurt vote totals in the upcoming GotD 2020 contest. Especially when some of the games will struggle with playrate issues.
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What the heck- where's that passion I gave you credit for, Doki Doki People?
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Ngamer64 posted...

What the heck- where's that passion I gave you credit for, Doki Doki People?

They're too passionate. Since the format doesn't allow them to vote Just Monika, they're all abstaining out of protest for this travesty!
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don't speak too soon Ngamer....
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Whiskey_Nick posted...

don't speak too soon Ngamer....

yeah Monika spiked by 15 votes for one update and didn't even win it before getting rolled again the next update

it's coming
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You guys cost me on this one with your goddamn MonikaFear.
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I didn't...!
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