Board 8 > Sir Chris Music Mafia Topic 16: Everybody...hurts...

(+) Yeah! (+)

Does no one else see that most of Zachs arguments are complete WIFOM?
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ColZach posted...

Is it actually a decent idea to no lynch and force scum to kill so we have as much info as we can get??

And if nobody dies again what then?

Either you or tange came to the conclusion that your chances of survival were better with me alive. Its a lot harder to get 3/3 town to lynch scum than 2 of 2.

In both cases it could have been expected that i would have been most likely to vote ben. But you didn't expect that i would have reasoned that he had the least to gain from not killing me.
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Tange, your argument doesnt go farther than theres no mafia janitor godfather!

And like Ive said you will lose town the game on that hill

ColZach posted...

Tange, your argument doesnt go farther than theres no mafia janitor godfather!

And like Ive said you will lose town the game on that hill

Thats a hill Im willing to die on

But its still not me spending time and wasting posts going well Id never do THAT as scum
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The thing i really didn't consider enough from the "scum ben" perspective is what impact his teammates would be likely to have on the kill decision. Im assuming that Ben has the least to gain from leaving me alive because im approaching that from a scenario where Tange and zach are still most likely to aim for each other.

Tange in particular has seemed to have his mind made up about Zach, which would be the easiest final 3 imaginable for Ben.

But that's assuming ben doesn't give them a reason to radically change their mind which the hammer could have done.

But what choice does scum ben have there? Han had just started to outline a plan where we lynch ben instead yesterday and han was so confident that he would be an auto lynch in final 3 if ben was town. So ben panics. And he hammers.

And suddenly the final 3 is not so cut and dry. Maybe things would still work out... but maybe not. So the decision gets made to keep it a final 4 which makes a correct lynch significantly less likely.

And this does feel like a decision red or leo might push for. "Don't kill tonight and you will buy yourself time to see where everyone stands now".

Not only that but Ben has been angling for a NL today. And why not? It just takes 1 other person to force a no lynch and then i can be killed tonight like was originally planned. He would know that tange's vote would still be right where he wants it tomorrow based on what's has gone down so far today.

Hell i think I've actually brought myself around on Ben. It puts the suggestion to NL perfectly into perspective. Town can not possibly gain from a NL. Scum would go into tonight armed with more certain information than they had available last night so they can make the kill that allows them to win in final 3.

@DoubleTangicide are you STILL in a mindset where Ben can't possibly be scum? The puzzle pieces are difficult to see, but they are there if you look.
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Well im going to bed, but in want to give this more thought.

My initial reaction was rooted in the idea that ben would have coasted to victory after killing me and thus it couldn't be him in spite of everything Han pointed out. But maybe he (or they) were not confident enough after han forced the hammer so this more methodical plan of using an extra day to be certain was devised.

:thinking:
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Ive also advocated for a no lynch today as well. Hes not the only one.

Yes, Ben could have had that same decision made from Red or Leo

But Zach could have had that as well.

Again. No one. Not Han, not death, not ben, not Zach and not you, FD have given me any kind of reasonable explanation as to how ben can be scum and also be a godfather janitor that makes sense

Until that happens I have no reason not to believe that a godfather janitor does not exist in this game

What if we no-lynch today and I get killed tonight, FD?

Actually, I want everyone to answer that. If We no lynch today and I am killed tonight, who do you vote for?
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Easy, i vote for ben. He is not modkill confirmed like zach.

DoubleTangicide posted...

given me any kind of reasonable explanation as to how ben can be scum and also be a godfather janitor that makes sense

The reasonable explanation exists, you are ignoring it.

It goes like this.

Town has a lot of strong roles.

Scum has not flipped a lot of scum roles.

An innocent scanning janitor would be a very strong role that would close the clear gap that exists in the balance of the game.

And it isn't that he would "be scum AND a janitor godfather" like those are two separate things. He would be an innocent scanning janitor...who was scum.

It also explains why sheep wasn't blocked or killed until after Ben was scanned which was a mystery on day 3/4.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

Scum has not flipped a lot of strong* roles.

Im too tired to prof read. We need to figure this out tomorrow though. Zzz time for reals this time.
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DoubleTangicide posted...

ColZach posted...

Tange, your argument doesnt go farther than theres no mafia janitor godfather!

And like Ive said you will lose town the game on that hill

Thats a hill Im willing to die on

But its still not me spending time and wasting posts going well Id never do THAT as scum

Its almost like no matter what I post youre just gonna ignore it and cover your ears

Ben if you are the last scum you honestly should have blasted FD last night cause Tange would have mislynched me on a silver platter and asked if you wanted dessert

Which is a point in bens favor as town to be honest
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Tag
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Who benefits most from a no-kill last night?

Ben doesnt benefit as scum.

If ben is scum, he kills FD and lynches Zach with me to win the game

It doesnt benefit me.

Im in the same boat as Ben. Yes, he was backing off of our theoretical pact, but I still think if it was him, Zach and I, we lynch Zach.

FD doesnt benefit as scum.

He could easily kill me and frame Zach, kill Ben and frame me, or kill Zach and frame me.

Zach DOES benefit as scum from a no-kill.

It sows doubt among the rest of us and has us infighting and being distracted
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DoubleTangicide posted...

Ive also advocated for a no lynch today as well. Hes not the only one.

Yes, Ben could have had that same decision made from Red or Leo

But Zach could have had that as well.

Again. No one. Not Han, not death, not ben, not Zach and not you, FD have given me any kind of reasonable explanation as to how ben can be scum and also be a godfather janitor that makes sense

Until that happens I have no reason not to believe that a godfather janitor does not exist in this game

What if we no-lynch today and I get killed tonight, FD?

Actually, I want everyone to answer that. If We no lynch today and I am killed tonight, who do you vote for?

FD. 100%
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DoubleTangicide posted...

FD doesnt benefit as scum.

He could easily kill me and frame Zach, kill Ben and frame me, or kill Zach and frame me.

Zach DOES benefit as scum from a no-kill.

It sows doubt among the rest of us and has us infighting and being distracted

I do agree that Zach doing it would make sense for those reasons and because he would be afraid of our pact.

I don't think that framing would be the first thing on a scum FD's mind, though. The first thing on his mind would be that him not dying is going to look suspicious. Framing is something that would need to happen in the discussion after the fact, but when he has to pick the night kill, he probably wants to do whatever avoids the most immediate reactions of us suspecting him

I dont know man. If this was scum's trap then I fell for it, but i really don't think it was meant to be a way to make FD look bad at all.
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Yeah, If Tange or Zach were scum, they would NOT expect FD to ever be suspected given the lawyer thing, even if they kept him alive. So he was not at all kept alive so that he could look suspicious. It's not scum's trap. I still think the biggest benefit of keeping it at 4 was FD's survivial. The only other argument you could make was that he was kept alive as a vote to use in mislynching me.
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And yes I DO hope that FD is killed if we no lynch. But not because I'm scum. I expect no one to die though. Still, we'd get more time
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I was never afraid of the pact tbh

Ben was clearly pro-town for me yesterday. I was more scared of Tange just dropping a vote on me without thinking in a final 3 without even giving me the chance to express why I am definitely not scum.

But this no kill really has thrown me for a loop

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Okay, I'm home.

Let's start with the superficially obvious analysis of who stood to gain from the NK the most.

Ben trusted Zach implicitly, but also pacted with Tange. If he was scum he would have his choice of who to hammer since Tange was displaying naked disregard for Zach yesterday. Han's posts yesterday were very convincing and Ben's hammer was very suspect, BUT I think of everyone a scum Ben has the easiest final 3 with me out of the picture.

Tange trusted Ben implicitly, BUT Ben showed a confident trust in Zach. In a Tange/Ben/Zach final 3 Tange has a pretty high likelihood of being lynched. However I was receptive towards Han's iso of ben and would not necessarily go along with a Tange lynch.

Zach considered Tange to be the scummier between Ben/Tange. But Tange was very vocally anti-Zach so his only chance would be a Tange lynch. Ben might come around because he considered Zach town, but he might also just stick to the pact leaving scum zach high and dry. If the pact fear was real then Zach potentially keeps me alive to introduce an element of chaos into the end game. Between Ben and Myself who both consider Zach town via "icky lack of modkill meta" zach would be pretty safe.

That is what I see as far as "people keeping me alive because it increases their chance to not-be-lynched".

I want to dig a little deeper but right now I'm seeing Tange with the most to gain, Zach with some to gain, though not as obviously. And in the distant rear Ben with very little to gain.

fd is clearly the last bad guy, what are you people doing?
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Host instruction to ignore post #119 and not to meta it in any way, shape or form as it comes from someone simply trolling. Thanks.
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i thought this was free for anyone to figure out, my bads
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So I get back from class and...that.

Ben why did you feel the need to roleplay murdering the shit out of han like an actual comic book villain?

inb4 that's a Zam alt

Okay we're running out of time, so if anyone is opposed to trying out NL, make it known quickly. And I'd like to hear from FD if he actually came to any results, because his stance seems the most unexplained right now
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ColZach posted...

Ben why did you feel the need to roleplay murdering the shit out of han like an actual comic book villain?

Excitement. The feeling of a game winning hammer was too good. And I just thought his entire plan to get me lynched that day was so scummy that he deserved a painful death
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Im in favor of a no lynch today
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##vote: no lynch

benjamin3740 posted...

ColZach posted...

Ben why did you feel the need to roleplay murdering the shit out of han like an actual comic book villain?

Excitement. The feeling of a game winning hammer was too good. And I just thought his entire plan to get me lynched that day was so scummy that he deserved a painful death

This and your hammer still just rub me the wrong way. I wish you hadnt done that, because it genuinely points me in the direction of suspicion on you. I dont think town that confidently stabs the shit out of someone.

I know it looks bad now that he flipped town >.< But I really didnt expect it. I was insanely confident at the time. The only players left were confirmed Zach, lawyer FD, scanned Innocent Tange, and Han. I considered Tange based on his play during the Tiebreaker, but the more Han said the scummier he seemed to me. And as soon as he offered HIMSELF to die, I knew he had to be desperate to get one more kill and thought for sure he was scum with another EK. That fit perfectly with the knowledge he was Janitor, I thought.
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Current Votals(Last #126)

[2] - No Lynch - Ben, Zach

[1] - Zach - Tange

with 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Day ends 10:19(?) PM EDT on Tuesday
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A little over an hour left. FD you're not opposed to No Lynching? No worry of dying tonight or anything?
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Im at work like i am nearly every day from 330-11pm. My work schedule doesn't change just because im at lylo in a forum game.

Im on break for 30 min though so im here.

benjamin3740 posted...

A little over an hour left. FD you're not opposed to No Lynching? No worry of dying tonight or anything?

What?? Im incredibly opposed to no lynching. I felt i made that very clear earlier.

Its either you or tange. And in either case the lines in the sand have been drawn today so a NL is only going to help whichever of you is scum. By now scum knows exactly who to kill to win a final 3 which is something that might not have been clear yesterday in the chaos of the hammer+flip.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

Im at work like i am nearly every day from 330-11pm. My work schedule doesn't change just because im at lylo in a forum game.

Im on break for 30 min though so im here.

benjamin3740 posted...

A little over an hour left. FD you're not opposed to No Lynching? No worry of dying tonight or anything?

What?? Im incredibly opposed to no lynching. I felt i made that very clear earlier.

Its either you or tange. And in either case the lines in the sand have been drawn today so a NL is only going to help whichever of you is scum. By now scum knows exactly who to kill to win a final 3 which is something that might not have been clear yesterday in the chaos of the hammer+flip.

Scumslip?
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Well I asked because if you are opposed you should be trying to convince others who to lynch instead. Keeping it at "either you or Tange" is not a very definitive opinion. If you think it's either of us and havent decided who, with an hour left in the day, then shouldn't you want a No Lynch?
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Simple logic says its Tange if you don't read too far into the NK.

Complex WIFOMy logic says Ben if you make some predictions about how the hammer and other members of the scum team could have shaped the night action.

The fact that tange is so single mindedly focused on zach with a sureness that town would not possess has me favoring him.

But if the choices are between a lynch that has a chance to be right and a NL that will allow scum to dictate final 3 with complete information? Well that's not much of a choice at all.

##Vote: Tange
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Nah we know there's one scum left, so it's right to call this Lylo.
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I think its telling that everyone but FD wants a no lynch
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Think about it though

We all expect FD to die tonight

What happens when I die? Or ben dies? Or Zach dies?
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##Unvote
##Vote: FD
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DoubleTangicide posted...

Scumslip?

How is that? If we lynch the wrong person we lose.

If we no lynch we don't lose immediately but scum gets their ideal final 3 so we lose anyways.

.

benjamin3740 posted...

Well I asked because if you are opposed you should be trying to convince others who to lynch instead. Keeping it at "either you or Tange" is not a very definitive opinion. If you think it's either of us and havent decided who, with an hour left in the day, then shouldn't you want a No Lynch?

Yeah and im typing on my phone so it takes a minute to adequately express my thoughts.
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DoubleTangicide posted...

I think its telling that everyone but FD wants a no lynch

Because im the only one logical enough to see why a NL is a bad thing in this situation.
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lol that countervote though.

You really should have stuck to zach and kept pretending to be an unreasonably stubborn town.
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Explain how it's bad. Give an example based on each of us getting nightkilled.

Because with the way my reads are now, I think whatever scum chooses to do will benefit me. Unless they just straight up kill me of course. But then I think that would help you all. With all of us acting so lost and not agreeing on the last scum, I think we need the playing field smaller
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And given that I think all of that, i really expect scum to just no kill. Which is still great because we get more time

And woah. Well if Zach is scum he'll hammer FD so.... LETS WAIT AND SEE. THIS IS SO EXHILARATING
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Oh wait no he cant hammer. I forgot I voted no lynch already
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Current Votals

[1] FD - Tange
[1] Tange - FD
[1] - No Lynch - Ben

Day ends at 10:19 PM EDT
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

DoubleTangicide posted...

Scumslip?

How is that? If we lynch the wrong person we lose.

If we no lynch we don't lose immediately but scum gets their ideal final 3 so we lose anyways.

.

benjamin3740 posted...

Well I asked because if you are opposed you should be trying to convince others who to lynch instead. Keeping it at "either you or Tange" is not a very definitive opinion. If you think it's either of us and havent decided who, with an hour left in the day, then shouldn't you want a No Lynch?

Yeah and im typing on my phone so it takes a minute to adequately express my thoughts.

It's really weird to me that you're more worried about scum getting their ideal final 3 than just mislynching today and losing the game immediately. Unless you are confident on the final scum between me and Tange, you should prefer No Lynch. But you only slightly favor Tange. Are you not worried of losing the game that way?
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If ben is scum then the no kill was evidence of uncertainty going into final 3. But tange has made his choice of zach abundantly clear today in spite ofb yesterday's events. So FD gets killed and Ben wins. Easily.

If Tange is scum he knows that ben and i both consider zach confirmed. But after today he knows that i see why scum ben might have nokilled and he can fan the flames of ben's janitor-role-theif theory. So zach is removed tonight and Ben votes FD at some point and Tange wins.

If zach is scum he knows that ben and i consider him confirmed for 'reasons'. He also knows that tange has been unrelenting towards him. So zach kills Tange and its only a matter of time before he can hammer after Ben or in place a vote.

I mean honestly im the only one who wouldn't directly benefit from a NL. If im killed then im dead and if someone else is killed then im a good mislynch target.

See why it's bad?
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Those are some scary looking votals. What happens if there is a tie between No Lynch and a player? That still counts as a proper tie at least, right?
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No Lynch wins any ties
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benjamin3740 posted...

Unless you are confident on the final scum between me and Tange, you should prefer No Lynch. But you only slightly favor Tange. Are you not worried of losing the game that way?

I see very clearly the logic in both cases. If i can see both sides then how can i possibly be 100% sure in either case? Unlike one of you i don't have inside information to be so sure. Like i said already:

Forceful_Dragon posted...

if the choices are between a lynch that has a chance to be right and a NL that will allow scum to dictate final 3 with complete information? Well that's not much of a choice at all.

I see NL here resulting in a town loss almost 100% of the time. it doesn't take a PhD in mathematics to figure out which is better.

And my break is ending now so i guess that's it. Its up to you now Ben unless @ColZach is around. If it isn't you its tange so please make the right decision.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

If ben is scum then the no kill was evidence of uncertainty going into final 3. But tange has made his choice of zach abundantly clear today in spite ofb yesterday's events. So FD gets killed and Ben wins. Easily.

If Tange is scum he knows that ben and i both consider zach confirmed. But after today he knows that i see why scum ben might have nokilled and he can fan the flames of ben's janitor-role-theif theory. So zach is removed tonight and Ben votes FD at some point and Tange wins.

If zach is scum he knows that ben and i consider him confirmed for 'reasons'. He also knows that tange has been unrelenting towards him. So zach kills Tange and its only a matter of time before he can hammer after Ben or in place a vote.

I mean honestly im the only one who wouldn't directly benefit from a NL. If im killed then im dead and if someone else is killed then im a good mislynch target.

See why it's bad?

That is a good point that No Lynch inherently worries you a lot more than it worries me. I can't exactly agree that it's bad. If someone like Zach does die instead of you, it's not like I'm going to blindly vote you though. I'm not looking for someone to get killed so that I can figure out who would make that kill, because at this point scum knows exactly which trick to pull. But I do want no lynch because I want more time, and more focus.
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