Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 168: Chemical Attacks are Syria's Business

(+) Yeah! (+)

James Comey's on ABC in about twenty minutes, by the way.
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comey time
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How's comey time?
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They just got done talking about how hard it was for him to do what he did before the election when his family wanted the first female President.

They're about to go into his final meeting with Donald. Pretty interesting so far.
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lot of going through events we already knew

still adamant he did the right thing about clinton's emails

some funny detailed description of the orange skinned man with white eyes and an peculiar floating tuft of hair
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4/16/2018
TWITTER - Carole Cadwalladr (Guardian, Observer)

BREAKING: Invoice shows Cambridge Analytica did do work on Brexit. A year of denials and legal letters and a hugely convoluted payment mechanism. But here it is....

https://t.co/IJSTixfDy5 https://t.co/N4yQcF3ulg

*PICTURE OF INVOICE*

*BEGINNING OF THREAD*

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/985287648288870406?s=19

I guess I thought this was confirmed already, but here it is.
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Comey is going to spend the rest of his life defending the way he handled the email investigation (especially the letter at the end).
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Yeah, I don't fault him for June 2016, but October 2016 changed an election and it's not like Hillary's faced jailtime since then.

Unless you count making her watch the news as jail. That has to feel like her own personal hell to her, worse than other losing candidates.
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https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2018/apr/16/my-under-10-matches-are-the-worst-no-end-in-sight-to-youth-referee-abuse

What do you guys make of this? Only vaguely related but I didn't want to make an actual topic about it
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#BlackAndWhiteLivesMatter
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More seriously, when Blue Lives Matter was picking up steam with their anti-discrimination laws against cops (who already have special protections), I argued that other jobs should be considered if this angle's being pursued -- including refs. I think I also mentioned judges and IRS workers at the time, hard to remember.

If society's ready to say people who enforce rules are discriminated against, we can have that conversation -- I just like it less when we do it just for one career.

And in the case of cops when they pushed for this first, it also felt like they were hijacking the movement that was protesting them. If they step up for this broader type of enforcement discrimination that involves other careers, that would feel more sincere to national concerns of upholding rules.
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4/16/2018
WASHINGTON POST - Poll: Democrats advantage in midterm election support is shrinking

The poll finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year. At the same time, there has been a slight increase in President Trumps approval rating, although it remains low. Measures of partisan enthusiasm paint a more mixed picture of the electorate in comparison to signs of Democratic intensity displayed in many recent special elections.

One potentially new factor in the mix of midterm issues is gun policy, which has emerged as a major voter consideration two months after the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. More than 4 in 10 registered voters say it is extremely important that candidates share their views on gun issues. Fewer voters say its critical that candidates share their views on Trump or House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), leaders who are most likely to be targets in partisan messaging this fall.

With the Republicans House majority at risk, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43 percent favor the Republican. That four-point margin compares with a 12-point advantage Democrats held in January. Among a broader group of voting-age adults, the Democrats margin is 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent.

Republicans owe part of their improved standing to Trumps thawing job ratings. The Post-ABC poll finds that 40 percent approve of the president, up slightly from 36 percent in January to his highest level of support since last April. Still, Trump continues to face majority disapproval at 56 percent, higher than any president at this stage since the dawn of modern polling, an indication that he remains a significant liability for Republicans on Novembers ballot.

The survey shows the GOP making a more pronounced shift among white voters, who now prefer Republicans by a 14-point margin over Democrats, up from five points in January. Republicans lead by 60 percent to 31 percent among white voters without college degrees, slightly larger than an 18-point GOP advantage three months ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-democrats-advantage-in-midterm-elections-
has-been-cut-more-than-half/2018/04/15/5450d99e-3f6e-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html

Don't get comfortable with the Big Blue Wave (tm) narrative.
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HaRRicH posted...

One potentially new factor in the mix of midterm issues is gun policy, which has emerged as a major voter consideration two months after the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla.

Told you all that this would backfire on the Dems!
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HaRRicH posted...

One potentially new factor in the mix of midterm issues is gun policy, which has emerged as a major voter consideration two months after the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. More than 4 in 10 registered voters say it is extremely important that candidates share their views on gun issues. Fewer voters say its critical that candidates share their views on Trump or House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), leaders who are most likely to be targets in partisan messaging this fall.

Phrasing!
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

HaRRicH posted...

One potentially new factor in the mix of midterm issues is gun policy, which has emerged as a major voter consideration two months after the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla.

Told you all that this would backfire on the Dems!

I also said this.

Even if its a fringe minority, calling for the repeal of the 2nd Amendment is a surefire way to energize the Right.
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I mean, the only notable person who called for the second to be repealed was a Republican, so of course it's the dems' fault
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oh my god this hearing about cohen's raided documents is incredible

they were trying to avoid naming one of cohen's other clients because of confidentiality reasons and the judge wasn't having it

the client is sean hannity

I can't
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The Mana Sword posted...

oh my god this hearing about cohen's raided documents is incredible

they were trying to avoid naming one of cohen's other clients because of confidentiality reasons and the judge wasn't having it

the client is sean hannity

I can't

Amazing!
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HaRRicH posted...

The poll finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year.

I'm too lazy to find it, but this is consistent with historical trends.

There was a handy graph I saw a while back that compared the historical average of the generic congressional ballot against the 2018 polls and it matched to that point (maybe a month ago?) Just the 2018 polls were obviously better for the opposition party, but in terms of when it rose and fell and by how much was consistent with trends.

Long story short: The generic ballot tightens around January to now, with it getting to its closest at about Tax Day and then it widens in support of the opposition party the entire rest of the way to election day.

I think based on that it projected something like D+7 or 8 if it followed the trend, but I'm doing this from memory.

I guess what I'm saying is, this isn't something worth hitting the panic button over yet.
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here is the handy graph

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Da6k1BgV4AEFr_v.jpg
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Ah yes, that appears to be it. I forgot about that little bump around the 50 day mark though.
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Cool graph, thanks.

And Hannityyyyyyyyyyyyy.
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I love real-life plot twists
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HaRRicH posted...

Cool graph, thanks.

And Hannityyyyyyyyyyyyy.

This would literally be thrown out as too unrealistic if pitched as a movie idea
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https://twitter.com/leahmcelrath/status/985966491072909312

hahahahahahaha
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So just to be clear:

Cohen and Donald have been working together for many years, Cohen and Broidy were co-Financial Chairs of the RNC, Cohen's had Hannity for a secret client, and Donald and Hannity provide feedback to each other.

I don't know how implicated this makes Hannity, but depending on the evidence gathered this is an interesting foot in the door to potentially investigate him and even Fox.
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Maybe Im missing something, but I dont get why its funny?

Is it just because its journalistically shameful to not disclose that he was a client of Cohen when he discussed the raid?
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Just confirming that fox had additional incentives to be state sponsored media
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Jakyl25 posted...

Maybe Im missing something, but I dont get why its funny?

Is it just because its journalistically shameful to not disclose that he was a client of Cohen when he discussed the raid?

Discussing the raid plus saying that Rosenstein/Mueller are criminals that should be fired

(Not that I think Hannity wouldn't have done the same without the explicit conflict of interest)
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I find it funny because of course Hannity would use the same "lawyer" as Trump.

Sure, it was ethically wrong to not disclose that stuff during his show, but he's also not actually a journalist so whatever to that part.

It also means that there may have been shady shit dug up on him during the FBI raid which would be great IMO!
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It sounds like the start of Hannity's radio show today was quite the train wreck which isnt too surprising I guess. I can't imagine having to go live on air after it is revealed the lawyer involved in the stories I have been railing against is revealed to also be my lawyer.
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Honestly, if the timelines match (dunno if they do), my money would be on Trump/Hannity communicating through Cohen, expecting attorney-client privilege to keep those communications secret given Trump's twitter tantrums about that topic since the raid.

That, of course, begs the question of what they were talking about and why it needs such secrecy.

If you want to follow the rabbit hole, we can dig that story about Julian Assange contacting a Hannity Impersonator via twitter and draw that line, but I'm not buying that yet. Would be hilarious if true though
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The Mana Sword posted...

It also means that there may have been shady s*** dug up on him during the FBI raid which would be great IMO!

Wouldnt that ACTUALLY fall under Attorney-client privilege though, unless it was related to the crimes Cohen is being investigated for?

Dont get me wrong, Hannity going down in flames would be wonderful; I just want to understand whats genuinely in play here.
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I wrote about this last month about Media Matters' report -- this looks a lot worse for Hannity in hindsight:

The Hannity Factor

Those examples above are specific moments, so lets look at some of Hannitys stats for a broader picture of how Fox dodges bad press for Donald. Media Matters tracked Hannity for three and a half months last summer and got these episode-based percentages:

61% - Donalds personal lawyer Jay Sekulow was on his show.
51% - opening monologue suggested Donald didnt collude with Russia.
41% - opening monologue accused Hillary of colluding with Russia.
11% - opening monologue said to terminate Robert Muellers investigation.

https://us17.campaign-archive.com/?u=40b35ab3e6c83f389457bf3e9&id=22173679f8
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I mean, I sort of agree with you that the revelation is probably being overblown right now, given the information we have.

That being said, Hannity is out there claiming Cohen never represented him for anything, he was just a friend who chatted about law questions with him from time to time, which would null any attorney-client privilege, I think.

Edit: THAT ALSO BEING SAID, no one is going to go to someone like Cohen for just random legal questions, so who knows.
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It's possible Trump recommended Cohen to Hannity.
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The Mana Sword posted...

I mean, I sort of agree with you that the revelation is probably being overblown right now, given the information we have.

That being said, Hannity is out there claiming Cohen never represented him for anything, he was just a friend who chatted about law questions with him from time to time, which would null any attorney-client privilege, I think.

Edit: THAT ALSO BEING SAID, no one is going to go to someone like Cohen for just random legal questions, so who knows.

Just a random lawyer he looked up in the phone book Im sure
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Its just funny because its fucking Hannity.

Hes only relevent because Trump likes him and here we have the possibility that hes complicit with whatever Trump has done
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Also I see literally zero motive for Cohen to invent a deeper relationship with Hannity than really existed.

So I presume Hannity is the one lying.

Unless calling to chat for free counts as being a client.
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Has it been made clear yet how long Cohen and Hannity have partnered up?
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Jakyl25 posted...

Also I see literally zero motive for Cohen to invent a deeper relationship with Hannity than really existed.

So he can try and pretend he's a real lawyer. Which, I believe, is a reason being used to waive attorney-client privilege in the raid documents - the fact that he doesn't actually do any real lawyer stuff for his 'clients'.
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https://twitter.com/davidbix/status/985973280933908480?s=21

Trying to figure out whos telling what truths between Hannity and Cohen...is this what its like to play Mafia?
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/davidbix/status/985973280933908480?s=21

Trying to figure out whos telling what truths between Hannity and Cohen...is this what its like to play Mafia?

Maybe, if one person is a jester and the other a serial killer
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It's like if scum is pretending to be a cop and they got tracked to the guy who died overnight, and the actual cop scanned them as guilty, and their teammates can't decide whether to throw them under the bus or not.
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HaRRicH posted...

4/16/2018
WASHINGTON POST - Poll: Democrats advantage in midterm election support is shrinking

The poll finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year. At the same time, there has been a slight increase in President Trumps approval rating, although it remains low. Measures of partisan enthusiasm paint a more mixed picture of the electorate in comparison to signs of Democratic intensity displayed in many recent special elections.

One potentially new factor in the mix of midterm issues is gun policy, which has emerged as a major voter consideration two months after the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. More than 4 in 10 registered voters say it is extremely important that candidates share their views on gun issues. Fewer voters say its critical that candidates share their views on Trump or House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), leaders who are most likely to be targets in partisan messaging this fall.

With the Republicans House majority at risk, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43 percent favor the Republican. That four-point margin compares with a 12-point advantage Democrats held in January. Among a broader group of voting-age adults, the Democrats margin is 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent.

Republicans owe part of their improved standing to Trumps thawing job ratings. The Post-ABC poll finds that 40 percent approve of the president, up slightly from 36 percent in January to his highest level of support since last April. Still, Trump continues to face majority disapproval at 56 percent, higher than any president at this stage since the dawn of modern polling, an indication that he remains a significant liability for Republicans on Novembers ballot.

The survey shows the GOP making a more pronounced shift among white voters, who now prefer Republicans by a 14-point margin over Democrats, up from five points in January. Republicans lead by 60 percent to 31 percent among white voters without college degrees, slightly larger than an 18-point GOP advantage three months ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-democrats-advantage-in-midterm-elections-
has-been-cut-more-than-half/2018/04/15/5450d99e-3f6e-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html

Don't get comfortable with the Big Blue Wave (tm) narrative.

Been telling you all along that when it comes to actual midterms, Repubs will show up. They simply do not know about or care about these piddling special elections.

The House and the Senate are both hard to capture for Dems. You will likely gain a few seats in the House, but Repubs will retain both majorities. There is way too many seats you need to retake in the house with barely more seats that are considered in play. You would almost have to sweep all Senate and House reasonably contested seats to take either.
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Corrik, we've said it in the past and we'll say it again: special elections specifically favor Republicans because they show up and Democrats do not (as you point out in the midterms). Yet the recent wave of special elections have gone distinctly in the opposite direction. If Republicans can't be bothered to show up to win what SHOULD be easy elections that favor their party's typical level of apathy (compared to the Democrats), why are you so unwilling to extrapolate that to a more mainstream election where they have to spend even MORE money over a larger swath of the nation?
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4/16/2018
REDDIT - Michael Choens third client is Sean Hannity

Here are all the occasions Hannity has mentioned Cohen on Twitter without disclosing that Cohen was serving as his attorney:

[4.11.18](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/984240145644818434)

[4.11.18](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/984242895300579330)

[4.10.18](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/983883478566653952)

[4.3.17](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/849091156248014850)

[3.15.17](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/842113183829643265)

[1.11.17](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/819348168190009344)

[1.10.17](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/819060455599640577)

[1.10.17](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/819066599520997377)

[1.10.17](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/819065140129787904)

[8.19.16](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/766826379417493505)

[8.4.16](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/761385502381527040)

[5.18.16](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/733108788899815425)

[4.18.16](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/722244351972081664)

[1.4.16](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/684214747168821249)

[8.24.15](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/636002610915315713)

[8.10.15 - GREAT PIC!!](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/630834524243427328)

[1.23.15](https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/624398874807898113)

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/8cpzr3/michael_cohens_third_client_is_sean_hannity/dxgx1h6?utm_source=reddit-android

This tweet from 1/11/17 might be worth watching out for:

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/819065140129787904

I assume Hannity didn't know the truth any more than whatever Cohen told him, but still -- this has been been disproven now.
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Inviso posted...

Corrik, we've said it in the past and we'll say it again: special elections specifically favor Republicans because they show up and Democrats do not (as you point out in the midterms). Yet the recent wave of special elections have gone distinctly in the opposite direction. If Republicans can't be bothered to show up to win what SHOULD be easy elections that favor their party's typical level of apathy (compared to the Democrats), why are you so unwilling to extrapolate that to a more mainstream election where they have to spend even MORE money over a larger swath of the nation?

This again is completely false. You keep saying it, but this is not true. Special elections favor those not in power. If you want to keep up your hope of a "blue wave" then by all means, do so. I am just saying when you are all beat up and disappointed you took neither branch, it is your own fault you did not see it coming.
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Midterms in general favor the opposition party too.
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Corrik posted...

Inviso posted...

Corrik, we've said it in the past and we'll say it again: special elections specifically favor Republicans because they show up and Democrats do not (as you point out in the midterms). Yet the recent wave of special elections have gone distinctly in the opposite direction. If Republicans can't be bothered to show up to win what SHOULD be easy elections that favor their party's typical level of apathy (compared to the Democrats), why are you so unwilling to extrapolate that to a more mainstream election where they have to spend even MORE money over a larger swath of the nation?

This again is completely false. You keep saying it, but this is not true. Special elections favor those not in power. If you want to keep up your hope of a "blue wave" then by all means, do so. I am just saying when you are all beat up and disappointed you took neither branch, it is your own fault you did not see it coming.

Midterms historically tend to favor the party not holding the presidency, which is especially bad for the Republicans given how wildly unpopular both Trump himself and the do-nothing Republican congress have been in the past year and a half. Furthermore, a LARGE number of Republican congressmen/senators are retiring before the midterms, removing their incumbency advantage from the equation.

You're basically claiming "Republican turnout is always higher in midterms than Democrats", which has historically been true, because Democrats are lazy and unmotivated. But then you're denying that special elections, which have wildly gone in the Democrats' favor, thus showing their enthusiasm/Republicans' lack thereof, have no impact.

Now, MAYBE you're right and despite everything, Democrats still won't take back the house (we all know the Senate is a lost cause in 2018 given the map). But at this point, it seems like you're pulling shit out of your ass just to be contrarian and troll liberals. What am I saying? Seems like? You ARE doing that.
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