Current Events > Majority of Americans not seeing change in paychecks from GOP tax cuts

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://t.co/55j7On7Qmx

A majority of Americans is not yet seeing President Trump's tax cuts reflected in their paychecks, according to a new poll.

A CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds 52 percent of respondents say they haven't seen a change.

Just 32 percent of respondents report taking home more money due to the tax cuts, which Trump signed into law late last year.

Of that percentage, 38 percent say the extra pay they helps them a "great deal" or a "fair amount." Another 40 percent say the extra pay helps "some" or "just a little" and 22 percent report that the extra pay "does not help much at all."

The poll was conducted from March 17 to 20 among 800 Americans. Its margin of error is 3.5 percent.

The Treasury Department and IRS released new guidance earlier this year that adjusted the amounts that companies set aside from their employees' paychecks for federal taxes.

Employers were instructed to adopt the new withholding tables by Feb. 15.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said that 90 percent of wage earners would see bigger paychecks due to the guidance.

Helen Kennedy

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@HelenKennedy
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More Helen Kennedy Retweeted The Hill
Meanwhile stock buybacks are averaging $4.8 billion per day, according to CNBC, enriching shareholders and goosing executive bonuses.

Winning.
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@Caution999 @Mal_Fet
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explain to me why this isn't biased

who was polled? what area of the country are they from? what jobs do they have? what is their cost of living?
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@Coffeebeanz
@darkjedilink
@DifferentialEquation
@HypnoCoosh
@ToonLinkWithGun
@Vertania
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A payroll provider should be able to release information about withholdings and the average change since the changes were implemented by income level.

That would be better than a poll of 800 people.
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This is the lesson the "ten guys at a bar" parable is desperately trying to teach.

My take home pay increased.
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Damn_Underscore posted...

explain to me why this isn't biased

who was polled? what area of the country are they from? what jobs do they have? what is their cost of living?

Yeah, I bet the CEO's and companies weren't included properly to try and push their biased points!
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I'm making about 3 cents more an hour

Before taxes

Because of my company as per a union agreement that I had no idea happened but is proof that my union actually exists beyond simply collecting dues from my third paycheck of every month
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SK8T3R215 posted...

A payroll provider should be able to release information about withholdings and the average change since the changes were implemented by income level.

That would be better than a poll of 800 people.

800-1000 people is the gold standard for representative random samples and suggesting the poll is invalid on basis of population size is not reasonable; seeking a full release of all payroll providers nationwide would not be viable from a cost standpoint. this is the most efficient way to capture the data.

the only real issue is whether these people are actually aware of whether their salaries are rising or not

also it's interesting to note that more people have turned positive on the tax cuts than have been impacted by them
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Darkman124 posted...

SK8T3R215 posted...

A payroll provider should be able to release information about withholdings and the average change since the changes were implemented by income level.

That would be better than a poll of 800 people.

800-1000 people is the gold standard for representative random samples and suggesting the poll is invalid on basis of population size is not reasonable; seeking a full release of all payroll providers nationwide would not be viable from a cost standpoint. this is the most efficient way to capture the data.

the only real issue is whether these people are actually aware of whether their salaries are rising or not

also it's interesting to note that more people have turned positive on the tax cuts than have been impacted by them

Gold standard by who?
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My tax refund didn't change. I think it went down. Not sure about my take home pay.
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P4wn4g3 posted...

My tax refund didn't change.

Because, Trump's tax cuts didn't begin until this year.

Think I got an extra $20 per paycheck.
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All I have is anecdotal evidence of tax cuts increasing pay.

All my friends and family have reported getting larger pay checks after the cuts.

Not sure why democrats and liberals are so against tax cuts.
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HypnoCoosh posted...

Not sure why democrats and liberals are so against tax cuts.

People who are better off, are less likely to vote for the party that promotes dependence on government.

HypnoCoosh posted...

All I have is anecdotal evidence of tax cuts increasing pay.

All my friends and family have reported getting larger pay checks after the cuts.

Not sure why democrats and liberals are so against tax cuts.

It's because it goes against their basic philosophy. You're the one that worked for the money, therefore it should go to someone else instead of you.
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They are just so angry and fabricate reasons to justify their hate.

End of the day my paycheck is bigger and that's a good thing. Not sure how they could be interpreted as a bad thing.
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rookieplayer03 posted...

Gold standard by who?

Professional statisticians.
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The issue is that most people aren't aware of how much they paid in taxes in the first place. Take somebody making $35,000 annually.

https://smartasset.com/taxes/income-taxes#Mikbj5ax80

Changes to Your Federal Income Taxes Under the Trump Tax Plan
Your marginal federal income tax rate will change from 15.00% to 12.00%.
Your effective federal income tax rate will change from 9.21% to 7.34%.
Your federal income taxes will change from $3,224 to $2,570.

That person is saving $650. That's a lot. Split that between 52 pay checks and that's $12.60 per. That's not a lot.

As far as the poll goes, was anyone able to find the actual poll? The Hill, a site that colluded with the Clinton campaign reporting on an NBC poll, a source that reports 93% negatively on Trump that NBC doesn't seem to want to actually divulge. Probably because if we look at the sampling data, we'll find they over sampled it with Democrats or people who don't actually have jobs.
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r4X0r posted...

The issue is that most people aren't aware of how much they paid in taxes in the first place.

I think you are correct about this, and your breakdown of the numbers is accurate.

r4X0r posted...

Probably because if we look at the sampling data, we'll find they over sampled it with Democrats or people who don't actually have jobs.

I think this is wild and nonsensical speculation. Pollsters who want to maintain their reputation collect data on who they sample, and weight the results to match national statistics, in order to maintain accuracy of their random sample.

Also, approval ratings on the poll are consistent with pollster aggregates, so it's unlikely that republicans were undersampled.

Appears that the raw data isn't being posted online, but CNBC has made contact info available for those who control the data.

https://tinyurl.com/y9q6hyws
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This shouldn't surprise anyone that isn't a moron
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Darkman124 posted...

I think this is wild and nonsensical speculation. Pollsters who want to maintain their reputation collect data on who they sample, and weight the results to match national statistics, in order to maintain accuracy of their random sample.

Wild speculation? This was exposed during the 2016 campaign when the Podesta emails revealed statistical oversampling going on.

Let's find the poll and take a look at what they asked and who they asked it to. I've been looking for a while now and can't find it. All I see is The Hill saying "NBC has a poll and it says this" and NBC saying "We have a poll and it says this" but no actual poll.
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Take-home pay is only one piece of the picture. People won't really know how they are affected until they file their 2018 taxes next year. Conveniently AFTER the midterms.
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r4X0r posted...

Wild speculation? This was exposed during the 2016 campaign when the Podesta emails revealed statistical oversampling going on.

Let's find the poll and take a look at what they asked and who they asked it to. I've been looking for a while now and can't find it. All I see is The Hill saying "NBC has a poll and it says this" and NBC saying "We have a poll and it says this" but no actual poll.

Contact info for those involved in the poll can be found here:

https://tinyurl.com/y9q6hyws

Poll covered many subjects; its results are consistent with national aggregates of trump's popularity so what you are wildly speculating about is highly unlikely.

Also, I'd like to request you highlight which aspect of the Podesta emails revealed 'statistical oversampling' as I was unaware of this. Was this in a specific pollster, all pollsters?

You hit on the key point already: people's perception of their income rise has a high variance in its accuracy. I did the math and the tax cut raised my taxes (due to my high itemized deductions) but my annual raise was substantially more than the cut cost me.
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So they're not willing to publish their actual poll data. That's sketchy as all hell. If they're not willing to publish their polling methodology and sample information, their poll is fake news with nothing to back it up.

As far as oversampling goes, I'm stunned you're ignorant of this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

Gives an excellent example of how statistical oversampling that's rampant with left wing sources works and then goes on to highlight the emails.
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r4X0r posted...

So they're not willing to publish their actual poll data. That's sketchy as all hell.

"I'm not able to find it to disprove your conspiracy theory" is pretty different from "They're not willing to publish it." It might be out there; for expediency in allowing you to do your own due dilligence I've provided you with contact email for someone you can ask for it (or directions to it).

Go look for it yourself and stop making up bullshit until you have something to actually validate.
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Not really surprising. I don't think most businesses are keen to pay their employees more if they can just picked the profits.
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Conspiracy theory? I already showed you that poll oversampling happens all the time. Now we have a bunch of left wing sources proven to be liars all reporting on an NBC poll that doesn't seem to exist. I don't have anything to validate, NBC does. When they publish the actual polling information, they'll have real news.

This is liberal logic for you. NBC publishes an article citing a poll that doesn't exist, I point that out and somehow I'M the one peddling bullshit.
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Questionmarktarius posted...

P4wn4g3 posted...

My tax refund didn't change.

Because, Trump's tax cuts didn't begin until this year.

I mean that's what I thought but people keep talking like it is retroactive.
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P4wn4g3 posted...

Questionmarktarius posted...

P4wn4g3 posted...

My tax refund didn't change.

Because, Trump's tax cuts didn't begin until this year.

I mean that's what I thought but people keep talking like it is retroactive.

That's because they want to somehow put a negative spin on having more money as a direct result of Donald Trump.
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r4X0r posted...

P4wn4g3 posted...

Questionmarktarius posted...

P4wn4g3 posted...

My tax refund didn't change.

Because, Trump's tax cuts didn't begin until this year.

I mean that's what I thought but people keep talking like it is retroactive.

That's because they want to somehow put a negative spin on having more money as a direct result of Donald Trump.

It's usually types like you tbh.
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r4X0r posted...

Gives an excellent example of how statistical oversampling that's rampant with left wing sources works and then goes on to highlight the emails.

to talk to the ABC poll that the ZH article begins to discuss: as i said, weighting results is a typical practice. i'd be very surprised and disappointed if the ABC poll didn't use weighting to adjust their results to the national average of dems/republicans/independents. it is telling that ZH didn't bother to give the reader this data.

what was the national partisan gap, btw?

http://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

2016 Oct 5-927(R)36(I) 32(D)

5 points. So, some oversampling clearly occurred, but it looks like it was independents, not republicans, who were undersampled. Weighting would be needed to adjust for undersampling of independents, which is a standard practice for pollsters, and ZH makes no comment whatsoever on how to weight.

The podesta emails you reference, unless I'm mistaken, appear to be for internal democratic party pollsters providing campaign models. I'm not seeing anything of the project directly messing with outside pollsters; the language 'making the most of media polls' seems one that ZH (and you) were eager to run with, but not one that conclusively defines a link.

Atlas project is a fairly well-known left leaning, dem-affiliated organization after all; direct collusion between them and major media pollsters would destroy the pollsters' reputation. No such collusion has been directly presented; only speculation and conspiracy theory.
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I've seen the change already, it just wasn't very much.
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Questionmarktarius posted...

HypnoCoosh posted...

Not sure why democrats and liberals are so against tax cuts.

People who are better off, are less likely to vote for the party that promotes dependence on government.

More like you need the tax revenue to pay for the government programs so that the national debt doesn't increase and eventually gets us hemorrhaging and owing money to places like China.

But yeah, what the fuck is good about a balanced budget?

You people talk of dependence and clearly our education system failed you.

Then again, I think Coosh isn't American either.
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Kineth posted...

You people talk of dependence and clearly our education system failed you.

Then again, I think Coosh isn't American either.

Clearly, as I'm well in the 90th percentile of wage earners in the US and my wife and I combined are well over that.

I'm down with lopping off expenses we don't need to balance the budget. I balance my budget why shouldn't the government.
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Darkman124 posted...

SK8T3R215 posted...

A payroll provider should be able to release information about withholdings and the average change since the changes were implemented by income level.

That would be better than a poll of 800 people.

800-1000 people is the gold standard for representative random samples and suggesting the poll is invalid on basis of population size is not reasonable; seeking a full release of all payroll providers nationwide would not be viable from a cost standpoint. this is the most efficient way to capture the data.

the only real issue is whether these people are actually aware of whether their salaries are rising or not

also it's interesting to note that more people have turned positive on the tax cuts than have been impacted by them

I mean, to me the issue is more about whether the pay increase is appreciable or not, less than whether it exists or not which we know to be true

but if you're on the exchange then that all got eaten up by your higher premiums due to the repeal of the individual mandate, for instance, so it isnt really much of a tax cut in practice
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I got a raise on Dec 28 so it's hard to tell from paycheck to paycheck what changed.
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Has inflation started?
My sources say it's at 10% a year.

Meager pay increases don't do shit for that, unless they are cumulative.
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Balrog0 posted...

but if you're on the exchange then that all got eaten up by your higher premiums due to the repeal of the individual mandate, for instance, so it isnt really much of a tax cut in practice

oh, definitely anyone on the exchange is seeing a net loss

i wonder how this will ripple into standard insurance rates as well

and i agree also on the broader point that any such gains are invisible to a typical recipient due to their size.

member that time paul ryan tweeted about a woman using her entire tax cut benefit for her costco membership as if that was a good thing?

i member.
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HypnoCoosh posted...

Not sure why democrats and liberals are so against tax cuts.

Because they need tax revenue to fund all their socialist polices, just look at California if you need a good example of social programs requiring high taxes on top of state income tax.
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I've already made money this year with an unscheduled raise, and there's just more to come. This poll conducted a month after the new year begins (hint, usually as conservatively spent as q4 for most companies) before you even have your full quarter trend is as useful as most posters on this site, lol.
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It's always hilarious to me when people who don't know anything about statistics try to criticize the sample size
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Bullet_Wing posted...

Anyone else find it funny that r4X0r just whined about media bias using zero fucking hedge to "prove" his point?

Talk about a conspiracy website, LMAO

i opted not to start by attacking the source directly but rather its choice to manipulate what information the reader was given

which should underline the point that the author had an agenda
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P4wn4g3 posted...

Has inflation started?
My sources say it's at 10% a year.

tell me more about your sources.
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How many of the people sampled pay much if anything in federal income taxes in the first place? Note also that a sizable portion of the sample did see an increase in their income due to the tax cuts. The news wrapped that up in biased rhetoric like "just 32%" but that doesn't mean 32% is a trivial number.

And I'd trust a payroll provider's data more than polls that aren't even readily available and published for scrutiny. Is there any payroll provider data out there? I doubt most people are going to notice smaller increases in the biweekly check even if it adds up to a sizable sum per year.
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Also, 32% of people seeing income increases due to the tax cuts (with potentially another 16% saying the same) is huge considering the left was adamant that nobody besides the ultra rich would see tax cuts.
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FLUFFYGERM posted...

How many of the people sampled pay much if anything in federal income taxes in the first place? Note also that a sizable portion of the sample did see an increase in their income due to the tax cuts. The news wrapped that up in biased rhetoric like "just 32%" but that doesn't mean 32% is a trivial number.

probably about half.

fwiw, the left's principal narrative was not that 'no one except the rich would see cuts' so much as 'no one except the rich would see cuts of note' which i think we can agree drives a fair portion of this, since whatever cut anyone gets is being divided by 12-52 since it's spread over all their paychecks.

the biggest gains certainly went to investors in the form of the market rally over the last year.
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Why was I tagged ITT?