Current Events > New poll suggests Trump stands no chance for re-election in 2020

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/20/poll-just-36-percent-of-americans-indicate-they-would-vote-for-trump-in-2020/23312862/

Only about a third of Americans say that they will definitely or probably vote for Donald Trump if he runs for reelection in 2020, while half indicate that theyll definitely or probably support his Democratic general election challenger, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

The poll found that just 18 percent of those surveyed believe that they will "definitely" support Trump if he runs in the next presidential election, with another 18 percent saying that theyll "probably" choose him. But a significant chunk 38 percent say theyre dead set on voting against the GOP commander-in-chief, with an additional 14 percent saying that theyll probably vote for the Democrat on the ballot.

While even the most nascent stages of the 2020 presidential race are likely at least a year away and, of course, its unknown who will run for and win the Democratic nomination, how a possible primary challenger to Trump might fare and even whether Trump will ultimately decide to pursue another term at all the numbers are striking when compared to the nations mood about then-President Bill Clinton after the first year of his presidency.

I wonder how Obama fared at this same point in his presidency.
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Old poll suggest Trump stands no chance for election in 2016.
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B-b-but @southcoast09 told me Trump's a LOCK for 2020! He can't lose!!
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s0nicfan posted...

Old poll suggest Trump stands no chance for election in 2016.

This one time a poll was wrong so we shouldnt discuss them
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Remember Trump's election day predictions?
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Says the same old discredited sources that said Trump stood no chance for election in 2016.
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That's what they said last time. I think all these news outlets really underestimate how many angry racists there are in the middle of the country.
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Sounds like every liberal poll in 2016.
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polls said he had no chance in the first election
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TheVipaGTS posted...

s0nicfan posted...

Old poll suggest Trump stands no chance for election in 2016.

This one time ten thousand polls were wrong so we shouldnt discuss them

Fixed that for you.

The Admiral posted...

Sounds like every liberal poll in 2016.

even polls are liberal now huh
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ9Z7ybXSnM
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Usually those people end up coming home. Maybe in this case they won't, but in general there were plenty of Republicans who took a bitter pill in 2016 and I don't necessarily see any reason why they would not double down in 2020.
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Hilldawg better run again
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I'll believe it when I see it. 2016 showed that the polls are not always completely accurate, though for what it's worth, he DID lose the popular vote.

The Admiral posted...

Sounds like every liberal poll in 2016.

I'm pretty sure even conservative polls said the same thing.
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A lot of Trump trolls get upset about math on this board
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBQdhR--cmY

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-elections-over-hillary-clinton-won-2016-10-06

https://www.thenation.com/article/trump-cant-win/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/11/trump-cant-win-election-america-political-earthquake
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A_Good_Boy posted...

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/20/poll-just-36-percent-of-americans-indicate-they-would-vote-for-trump-in-2020/23312862/

Only about a third of Americans say that they will definitely or probably vote for Donald Trump if he runs for reelection in 2020, while half indicate that theyll definitely or probably support his Democratic general election challenger, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

The poll found that just 18 percent of those surveyed believe that they will "definitely" support Trump if he runs in the next presidential election, with another 18 percent saying that theyll "probably" choose him. But a significant chunk 38 percent say theyre dead set on voting against the GOP commander-in-chief, with an additional 14 percent saying that theyll probably vote for the Democrat on the ballot.

While even the most nascent stages of the 2020 presidential race are likely at least a year away and, of course, its unknown who will run for and win the Democratic nomination, how a possible primary challenger to Trump might fare and even whether Trump will ultimately decide to pursue another term at all the numbers are striking when compared to the nations mood about then-President Bill Clinton after the first year of his presidency.

I wonder how Obama fared at this same point in his presidency.

Polls said hed never get the nomination or win the presidency too

mario2000 posted...

even polls are liberal now huh

guess you didn't pay attention to the last election
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davyheinz posted...

A lot of Trump trolls get upset about math on this board

You're just so adorable!
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Lol, the democrats don't even have anyone big enough to beat him. Who the fuck are they going to run, some no name?
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>poll suggests Trump can't win an election that he's currently running unopposed

>Addy continues having a meltdown lol
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darkphoenix181 posted...

mario2000 posted...

even polls are liberal now huh

guess you didn't pay attention to the last election

Polls were wrong during an election cycle =\= polls are liberal.
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Literally AOL
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Let's see who the Dems put up before we start celebrating eh?
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A_Good_Boy posted...

>poll suggests Trump can't win an election that he's currently running unopposed

>Addy continues having a meltdown lol

> You get rekt by evidence of polls that said the same thing last year
> Cry that others are having a meltdown

As oblivious as these pollsters
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Lol polls

CarlGrimes posted...

some no name?

Absolutely. Less baggage the better. God forbid liberals have to deal with sullying their ballots on someone experienced like Hillary.
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EducatedGuy posted...

A_Good_Boy posted...

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/20/poll-just-36-percent-of-americans-indicate-they-would-vote-for-trump-in-2020/23312862/

Only about a third of Americans say that they will definitely or probably vote for Donald Trump if he runs for reelection in 2020, while half indicate that theyll definitely or probably support his Democratic general election challenger, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

The poll found that just 18 percent of those surveyed believe that they will "definitely" support Trump if he runs in the next presidential election, with another 18 percent saying that theyll "probably" choose him. But a significant chunk 38 percent say theyre dead set on voting against the GOP commander-in-chief, with an additional 14 percent saying that theyll probably vote for the Democrat on the ballot.

While even the most nascent stages of the 2020 presidential race are likely at least a year away and, of course, its unknown who will run for and win the Democratic nomination, how a possible primary challenger to Trump might fare and even whether Trump will ultimately decide to pursue another term at all the numbers are striking when compared to the nations mood about then-President Bill Clinton after the first year of his presidency.

I wonder how Obama fared at this same point in his presidency.

Polls said hed never get the nomination or win the presidency too

That's how polls work, they give the chances, not a for sure "candidate X will win /lose (at least good polls don't)." Looking at 538's aggregate, putting him at 28.6% chance of victory doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means the 28.6% happened.
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This poll is better


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btw

what makes you guys think Russian trolls aren't swaying this poll to give dems overconfidence again?

hmmm??
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UrCa1988 posted...

That's how polls work, they give the chances, not a for sure "candidate X will win /lose (at least good polls don't)." Looking at 538's aggregate, putting him at 28.6% chance of victory doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means the 28.6% happened.

.286 would be a solid batting average in baseball; no one would act as though the metric is flawed when that guy got a hit.
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tote_all posted...

Why are people blindly defending Trump? Is it mandatory that he is the Republican candidate in 2020 or something?

Pretty much. He is the sitting president so I doubt the party would run someone against him.
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Antifar posted...

UrCa1988 posted...

That's how polls work, they give the chances, not a for sure "candidate X will win /lose (at least good polls don't)." Looking at 538's aggregate, putting him at 28.6% chance of victory doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means the 28.6% happened.

.286 would be a solid batting average in baseball; no one would act as though the metric is flawed when that guy got a hit.

to be fair that's because baseball sees thousands of at-bat opportunities for the .286 event to occur

there will be between 1 and 2 instances in which trump is placed on the national stage to try to win the electoral college and become president

i would expect 1. marco rubio is clearly going to primary him in 2020. i expect marco will win, it will be messy, and they'll then be relying on the dem opponent to self-destruct
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CarlGrimes posted...

Pretty much. He is the sitting president so I doubt the party would run someone against him.

It's happened before; the party doesn't choose if someone runs against him (though they certainly can apply pressure in various ways).

My guess is a dipshit like Ben Sasse will run seeking to make a name for themselves as a bold opposition to Trump in between voting for everything Trump wants. Whether they'll actually pose a challenge depends on what happens in the next two years, but my feeling is those guys really misjudge what it is Republican voters like.
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Antifar posted...

UrCa1988 posted...

That's how polls work, they give the chances, not a for sure "candidate X will win /lose (at least good polls don't)." Looking at 538's aggregate, putting him at 28.6% chance of victory doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means the 28.6% happened.

.286 would be a solid batting average in baseball; no one would act as though the metric is flawed when that guy got a hit.

This is exactly what I came to ask about.

People saying "The polls were wrong last time" is kinda like people saying "I guarantee this baseball player will get two hits in a row. Stupid liberals playing the odds..."
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Yeah the polls said he had no chance in winning in 2016.
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CrimsonRage posted...

I hope Democrats don't make the same mistake and treat a 2020 win as a sure thing like they did in 2016. It doesn't matter how stupid and idiotic Trump is, they need to treat him like a real opponent and work to defeat him in 2020, should he run again. There must not be a repeat of the Tortoise and Hare story.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/24/politics/hillary-clinton-transition-planning/index.html
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I will not trust a single poll or article that diminishes Trump's chances. Not until its November 2020 and he's giving his concesson speech.

This is the exact same game that was played in 2016. "Everyone hates Trump! The nation is against him! There's no way he can win!"

Gosh, I hope the Democrats don't get too big a head just because Trump is a suck sandwhich. Hubris got us here and hubris can definitely make it 4 years longer.
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We've got a long way to go to 2020 and things are going to be VERY different.
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creativerealms posted...

Yeah the polls said he had no chance in winning in 2016.

Note: they didn't. Things tightened up a lot in the final week.
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Darkman124 posted...

i would expect 1. marco rubio is clearly going to challenge him in 2020

A sitting President will never get a real challenger from their party. This is stupid.
He's giving them the tax cuts,Judicial appointments, deregulation, there's no reason to oust him, there's no reason to think someone that's already beat* the Dems, is a worse shot in the primary than this theoretical challenger.
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Plus you guys are talking like we'll even make it to 2020.
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"The polls are always wrong" strikes me as a belief that will lead to hilarious missteps.
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Antifar posted...

"The polls are always wrong" strikes me as a belief that will lead to hilarious missteps.

It's not that they're wrong, it's that they're intentionally designed to be misleading. You can get a poll to say whatever you want by asking the right question to the right people, and the left was caught doing this red handed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples
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I think its a safe bet the House and Senate will flip. I think its also a safe bet to assume Trump wont be re-elected, for reasons similar to the Alabama election
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Antifar posted...

"The polls are always wrong" strikes me as a belief that will lead to hilarious missteps.

missteps like losing to Trump and having him our president in 2017?

oh wait..that was because the polls were believed as very accurate
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http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president

And stuff
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