Board 8 > Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XIX: Discussion Topic Part 7 [smfffc]

(+) Yeah! (+)

FFDragon posted...

guys what do I do now

it's been forever since I haven't had something to push in the top ten

Kind sir.

May I suggest Cloud?
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you've got me in the rounds of 4 and 3

beyond that probably not
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FFDragon posted...

you've got me in the rounds of 4 and 3

beyond that probably not

So I just need to get him to day 97?
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Is there anyone besides Kain that we can say factually can't make top 5?

Like anyone else who is just tapped out here and doesn't have enough?
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squall
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kain's gonna be offering nrs in the final to pull out the win at the last second
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FFDragon posted...

squall

Leon said he got more support yesterday though.

He should be stronger.
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I would be floored if Laguna outlasted Squall at this rate tbqh
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FFDragon posted...

the mistake was not having her outlast squall

... well I do concede that I might've been able to do this if I remembered I was changing which server I ran my ping script on

Tidus is not making top 5 imo
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SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

Leon said he got more support yesterday though.

He should be stronger.

I'm pretty sure Squall picked up exactly Wolf. Who missed last round when Rinoa went out by one vote (and has said will miss more rounds).

Not exactly hype.
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sounds like squall, laguna, tidus, and kain are all too weak to even bother continuing so we should just eliminate them all right now
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fair
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All I know is Lightning is taking it all.
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The Mana Sword posted...

sounds like squall, laguna, tidus, and kain are all too weak to even bother continuing so we should just eliminate them all right now

So Cloud, Barret, Lightning, Lulu Vanille, and Minwu top 6 and just skip 4 rounds?
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everyone should just join team barret imo
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captaincanadian posted...

everyone should just join team barret imo

I'm all about everyone joining team VII

I would have no issue with Barret Cloud Finals.
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Kain is so screwed
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You say that but I'm not sure if I believe it
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The Kain Train isn't gonna just disappear today.
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1. Lightning
2. Kain [brought by Lightning supporters after she was saved first in final 3]
3. Cloud
4. Lulu
5. Vanille
6. Barret
7. Minwu
8. Laguna
9. Tidus
10. Squall
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Betting Odds*

Please note, this is not a ranking of where each character is expected to place, but speculation on their chance of victory. This takes into account their chances of reaching the top two + chance of winning any matchup they may face.

SMFFFC Grand Prix Classic

Cloud - 7/4

At 7/4, Cloud is the overall favourite in my book but with those kinds of odds, he's not worth betting much on. Stick him in a CFC or CTC or try to hedge your bets using him.

Lightning - 5/1

Confidence in Lightning to place is strong, an E/W bet is one of the top recs. Look to combine her as the placement in a SFC parlay.

Tidus - 6/1

I would try and avoid this one, as much as I like Tidus, there's not much value in backing him even as part of tricast. There's not enough of a payout to justify the risk.

Squall - 8/1

I know I have placed all the main characters at the top, but that's how it goes. At that price, I'm not gonna touch Squall. He's not gained too much momentum of late, but a respectable finish is still possible.

Laguna - 8/1

Both FFVIII characters are inspiring the same level of confidence right now, but again I would not back either to win or place. Laguna could sneak in if you go for a STC type of bet but that's about it.

Vanille - 12/1

Theoretically the lesser of the two FFXIII characters, has been building strong momentum of late. I would def put her in a RFC, the odds are long enough to make it worth it.

Minwu - 12/1

I love this pick, I would try and hedge by going with a to win outright and do a CTC, the payout could be solid even if he doesn't win.

Lulu - 20/1

Now Lulu's price reflects the confidence you have in her to make the top 2. Since most of the simple types of bets would have her reach the top 2, this isn't really worth it. Now if you think she makes top 3 you could look like a genius, depending on the type of bet you structure. I say she's fools gold, but bigger outsiders have won before (Hello Leicester 5000/1)

Barret - 25/1

Confidence in Cloud hurt Barret really badly. With the assumption Cloud takes one of the top 3 slots, the likelyhood of 2 FFVII characters in the top 3 is very low. Avoid like the plague, unless you think Cloud is going to crash and burn.

Kain - 33/1

Kain's ceiling appears to be just outside the top 3, so no point backing him, unless you're going all in on CHAOS.

To give some perspective, 33/1 would mean Kain is about as likely to win this contest, as Jared Goff is to win MVP. You don't ever back these with confidence, but when you win, you get to gloat for at least a day.

E/W 1/5 1-2

Odds close once round is up, odds always change to reflect ongoing events, but this is just for fun.

Everyone has 100 Virtual bucks to spend.
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100 bucks on Kain
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Gatarix posted...

1. Lightning
2. Kain [brought by Lightning supporters after she was saved first in final 3]
3. Cloud
4. Lulu
5. Vanille
6. Barret
7. Minwu
8. Laguna
9. Tidus
10. Squall

No.

I don't mean this to be arrogant, because they are stronger than us, and the favorite by a wide margin I'll fully admit to win it all.

But the Lightning backers are in NO way strong enough that if the top 3 is Cloud, Lightning and Kain they could overpower us enough to bring Kain over Cloud.
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can we bet against

I'd love to lay 6:1 against Tidus winning
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The Top 3 is EXACTLY the place where they can overpower you.

If (as you admit), they are stronger, the round of 3 lasts an hour and change. So if Lightning gets saved first, the overflow voters get to decide who they drag along or keep out.

It's the reason why Doomtrain got bounced at 3 last year. He wasn't strong enough to get saved first and then got put away.
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I will never forgive Jeff Zero for that
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I'd say Cloud is currently even with Light

In fact, I'd say the Top 3 has had the absolute largest amount of overpowering and gatekeeping than every other round combined.

Like, the contest I remember most fondly:

1st Place - Zell Dincht
2nd Place - Yuffie Kisaragi
3rd Place - Vivi Ornitier

Vivi is obv the powerhouse of those three, but Zell had the edge in getting saved first and then we gatekept Vivi out because it would have probably been a bad loss.
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tennisboy213 posted...

can we bet against

I'd love to lay 6:1 against Tidus winning

I accept

Singles,
E/W Singles,
Straight Forecasts,
Reverse Forecasts,
Combination Forecasts,
Straight Tricasts,
Combination Tricasts

Tbh, the placements should go all the way to 3, I could do either top 2 at 1/4 odds or top 3 but 1/5 odds.
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FFDragon posted...

The Top 3 is EXACTLY the place where they can overpower you.

If (as you admit), they are stronger, the round of 3 lasts an hour and change. So if Lightning gets saved first, the overflow voters get to decide who they drag along or keep out.

It's the reason why Doomtrain got bounced at 3 last year. He wasn't strong enough to get saved first and then got put away.

They are (by my thought looking at the last 20 or so rounds) barely stronger than us though.

That's my point, I don't think the slight overflow they have would be enough to make up a massive difference (if there is one) between #2 and 3. Yes, if it's close between Cloud and whoever, then I think Lightning has enough strength to kill us, but if it's not that close I don't personally believe Lightning has that much more strength to put us away. I may be wrong. We'll see.
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(also I'm going to be honest and say I don't understand most of the words voltch used)
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It's funny because I distinctly remember the gatekeeping not happening in contest 11, because it was the anti-Gilgamesh people who got to pick who his opponent was (and picked wrong).
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swordz9 posted...

I'd say Cloud is currently even with Light

Nah. You get saved before us 2/3 of the time. And when we are saved before you, you are typically saved immoderately after. Where as there have been plenty of times the last 20 or so rounds where Cloud is one of the last 5. And one time I think he was even last 3 (Leon can correct me on that if wrong)
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I will parlay Tidus, Squall, and Cloud winning

Yeah you heard me

They'll find a way
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The Mana Sword posted...

It's funny because I distinctly remember the gatekeeping not happening in contest 11, because it was the anti-Gilgamesh people who got to pick who his opponent was (and picked wrong).

baaaaaaarely though
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Basically, you can bet not only on who wins, but also who places 2nd or even 3rd.

But when your selection places, instead of winning outright, the payout gets slashed. It's pretty much a way for people to become attracted into betting on outsiders.
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SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

swordz9 posted...

I'd say Cloud is currently even with Light

Nah. You get saved before us 2/3 of the time. And when we are saved before you, you are typically saved immoderately after. Where as there have been plenty of times the last 20 or so rounds where Cloud is one of the last 5. And one time I think he was even last 3 (Leon can correct me on that if wrong)

Let's not forget I've still been holding back Lightning floodgates for like 20 rounds

FFDragon posted...

(also I'm going to be honest and say I don't understand most of the words voltch used)

(oh good it's not just me)
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just put all your money on kain like me and let it ride
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Gatarix posted...

FFDragon posted...

(also I'm going to be honest and say I don't understand most of the words voltch used)

(oh good it's not just me)

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gmun-dono posted...

SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

swordz9 posted...

I'd say Cloud is currently even with Light

Nah. You get saved before us 2/3 of the time. And when we are saved before you, you are typically saved immoderately after. Where as there have been plenty of times the last 20 or so rounds where Cloud is one of the last 5. And one time I think he was even last 3 (Leon can correct me on that if wrong)

Let's not forget I've still been holding back Lightning floodgates for like 20 rounds

Gonna keep doing that?
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If we had multiple races involved, then I could have introduced Lucky15s, Yankees, Canadians, Goliaths, Patents, Trixies, Doubles, Trebles, Four-Folds and more. (and their E/W variants!)
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FFDragon posted...

The Top 3 is EXACTLY the place where they can overpower you.

If (as you admit), they are stronger, the round of 3 lasts an hour and change. So if Lightning gets saved first, the overflow voters get to decide who they drag along or keep out.

It's the reason why Doomtrain got bounced at 3 last year. He wasn't strong enough to get saved first and then got put away.

But Locke was saved and most of us were backing Doomtrain! I think he got eliminated in spite of the Locke crew trying to get him through/bounce Vivi, but maybe I'm remembering incorrectly
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so what's the vig on this action here

nah there were too many locke/vivi trades that sunk him
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all in on Kain
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SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

Gonna keep doing that?

I have literally nothing else to do in this contest so yes

Is there even anyone left to keep off of lightning?

Vis, probably?
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gmun-san posted...

SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

Gonna keep doing that?

I have literally nothing else to do in this contest so yes

So I owe you, right?
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