Current Events > increases in the minimum wage lead to higher grocery prices

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Balrog0
12/05/17 1:34:07 PM
#1:


https://sites.google.com/site/tobiasrenkin/research

The Pass-Through of Minimum Wages into US Retail Prices: Evidence from Supermarket Scanner Data
with Claire Montialoux and Michael Siegenthaler

We study the impact of increases in local minimum wages on the dynamics of prices in local grocery stores in the US during the 20012012 period. We find a significant impact of increasing minimum wages on prices in grocery stores. Our baseline estimate of the minimum wage elasticity of grocery prices is 0.02. This magnitude is consistent with a full pass-through of cost increases into prices. We show that price adjustments occur mostly in the months following the passage of minimum wage legislation rather than at the actual implementation of higher minimum wages. This forward-looking pattern of price adjustments is qualitatively consistent with price-setting models that feature nominal rigidities. We find no differential price effect for products consumed by poorer and richer households, and no evidence for demand effects. Our results suggest that consumers rather than firms bear the cost of minimum wage increases. Moreover, poor households are most negatively affected by the price response. Price increases in grocery stores alone offset at least 10% of the nominal income gains of the poorest households.


interesting finding. no peer-review yet, but I have the whole paper if anyone wants it.
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Were_Wyrm
12/05/17 1:36:58 PM
#2:


I was working at Wal-Mart when the last federal wage jumped and I can tell you one month to the day before the new wage went into effect we raised prices on almost every item in the store.
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 1:39:27 PM
#3:


Balrog0 posted...
Our results suggest that consumers rather than firms bear the cost of minimum wage increases.

No shit.

It's no coincidence, given that retail isn't very easy to automate, apart from those self-checkouts everyone hates and won't let you buy booze or smokes anyway.
Especially so in grocery, where the margins are razor thin already.
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Balrog0
12/05/17 1:41:56 PM
#4:


Questionmarktarius posted...
No shit.


you say that as though that is a foregone conclusion, when there are multiple channels of adjustment available to employers

the full pass-through effect they find here is actually really remarkable; most other studies do not show price increases so close to the additional cost of labor

http://www2.gsu.edu/~ecobth/IZA_HKZ_MinWageCoA_dp6132.pdf

here the pass-through was only 2/3 to prices -- other things that got cut were performance bonuses for management, for instance, which is an example of the consumer not paying for the price increase of labor (at least not fully)
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Darkman124
12/05/17 1:43:35 PM
#5:


Balrog0 posted...
Price increases in grocery stores alone offset at least 10% of the nominal income gains of the poorest households.


i don't really see this as an issue so long as it's not offsetting >100% of the nominal income gains of said households

i think we can generally recognize that certain product areas with ultra-low profit margins are so inelastic that goods prices are forced to rise when labor costs are forced up by regulation

but so long as this benefits all minimum wage categories, including products whose primary consumers aren't poor, the net effect is a progressive wealth transfer

also goods with larger profit margins, that are more elastic, are also sold by minimum wage workers and cannot simply hike prices and call it a day--the risk of reduced sales would hurt the company more than giving up the profit.
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 1:44:57 PM
#6:


Balrog0 posted...
you say that as though that is a foregone conclusion, when there are multiple channels of adjustment available to employers

If anything, the trend will be a reversion to pre-Piggly-Wiggly, enabled by modern technology, where you just pick up your groceries after ordering them online.
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Darkman124
12/05/17 1:48:41 PM
#7:


Questionmarktarius posted...
Balrog0 posted...
you say that as though that is a foregone conclusion, when there are multiple channels of adjustment available to employers

If anything, the trend will be a reversion to pre-Piggly-Wiggly, enabled by modern technology, where you just pick up your groceries after ordering them online.


i think a step further that will afford some role for employees.

grocery delivery is being embraced by costco et al

it's a tipped job that involves a worker walking through the store (future: through the warehouse) putting together your order then bringing it to you

it just needs a bit more logistics improvements to break the grocery store model with cashiers forever

and being a tipped job it can skirt min wage laws. people will pay the difference to the employee for the convenience of not giving up 2 hours of your life at the store
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 1:50:01 PM
#8:


Darkman124 posted...

i think a step further that will afford some role for employees.

grocery delivery is being embraced by costco et al

That too. May well be even more lucrative than pickup.
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creativerealms
12/05/17 1:51:51 PM
#9:


They are raising as it is.
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DevsBro
12/05/17 1:51:59 PM
#10:


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josifrees
12/05/17 1:58:41 PM
#11:


Need to tie wages to the cost of living. At least that way luxury goods will be the ones with rising prices instead of necessities
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Sativa_Rose
12/05/17 2:00:43 PM
#12:


Questionmarktarius posted...
where the margins are razor thin already.


Too many people don't even think at this basic level. They just hate.
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 2:01:09 PM
#13:


josifrees posted...
At least that way luxury goods will be the ones with rising prices instead of necessities

Then, we'll all fight and complain about what's "luxury" and what's not.
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Darkman124
12/05/17 2:02:05 PM
#14:


Questionmarktarius posted...
josifrees posted...
At least that way luxury goods will be the ones with rising prices instead of necessities

Then, we'll all fight and complain about what's "luxury" and what's not.


will we? cold groceries are exempt from sales tax

everything else is treated as a luxury, incl hot groceries.
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Balrog0
12/05/17 2:03:28 PM
#15:


Darkman124 posted...
i don't really see this as an issue so long as it's not offsetting >100% of the nominal income gains of said households

i think we can generally recognize that certain product areas with ultra-low profit margins are so inelastic that goods prices are forced to rise when labor costs are forced up by regulation

but so long as this benefits all minimum wage categories, including products whose primary consumers aren't poor, the net effect is a progressive wealth transfer

also goods with larger profit margins, that are more elastic, are also sold by minimum wage workers and cannot simply hike prices and call it a day--the risk of reduced sales would hurt the company more than giving up the profit.


Sure, but there are less labor intensive processes that could respond by cutting hours or pay more than groceries or fast food are able to do, also. And even the, the poor are diverse and include people on fixed incomes or who are unemployed and would not benefit, unless we expect there to be induced demand from the higher pay which I find questionably.

It likely is an overall positive wealth transfer since most poor people spend most of their money on things that are fairly fixed (like housing and transit) but it's not an unambiguous transfer.

josifrees posted...
Need to tie wages to the cost of living. At least that way luxury goods will be the ones with rising prices instead of necessities


I don't think that's how it would work

edit:

Darkman124 posted...
Questionmarktarius posted...
josifrees posted...
At least that way luxury goods will be the ones with rising prices instead of necessities

Then, we'll all fight and complain about what's "luxury" and what's not.

will we? cold groceries are exempt from sales tax


depends entirely on where you live
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Darkman124
12/05/17 2:04:32 PM
#16:


Balrog0 posted...
but it's not an unambiguous transfer.


I think this is the crux of your point and I do agree with you. I think gradual increases in min wage, such as tagging it to inflation, work best for this reason.
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Balrog0
12/05/17 2:06:41 PM
#17:


I actually don't view myself as having a strong opinion on the minimum wage, but it is one area where I do not see anyone but mindless conservatives talking about the potential downsides and so I try to inject some skepticism into the conversation when I can. Overall I think the evidence is good that we should raise minimum wages, but basically yeah, the implementation and overall level of the min. wage is more important than people seem to admit at least.
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 2:15:15 PM
#18:


Balrog0 posted...
Overall I think the evidence is good that we should raise minimum wages, but basically yeah, the implementation and overall level of the min. wage is more important than people seem to admit at least.

But, the critical flaw is that there's no obligation to hire or continue employing. It punishes the very people it's intended to help, if their labor isn't worth the mandatory price floor, by making them effectively unemployable.
http://www.aei.org/publication/thomas-sowell-on-the-cruelty-of-minimum-wage-laws/

...and also provides an easy vector for institutional racism:
http://www.aei.org/publication/thomas-sowell-on-the-differential-impact-of-the-minimum-wage/
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r4X0r
12/05/17 2:16:16 PM
#19:


josifrees posted...
Need to tie wages to the cost of living. At least that way luxury goods will be the ones with rising prices instead of necessities


You want to tie wages to living? So people should work whatever jobs they're capable of, and be compensated based on what they need?
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r4X0r
12/05/17 2:17:30 PM
#20:


Balrog0 posted...
I actually don't view myself as having a strong opinion on the minimum wage, but it is one area where I do not see anyone but mindless conservatives talking about the potential downsides and so I try to inject some skepticism into the conversation when I can. Overall I think the evidence is good that we should raise minimum wages, but basically yeah, the implementation and overall level of the min. wage is more important than people seem to admit at least.


Labor is a commodity. When you increase the cost of a commodity, you decrease the demand for it. When you increase the minimum wage, you put people out of work. This isn't... conjecture or voodoo economics, it's plainly observable.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/uw-study-finds-seattles-minimum-wage-is-costing-jobs/

You jack up the minimum wage, you put people out of work. If raising the minimum wage is a good idea, why not make it $100? Everyone will be rich!
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Squidkids
12/05/17 2:18:00 PM
#21:


DevsBro posted...
There's a shocker.

that, lol
yeah its so shocking how stuff costs 10 dollars that used to cost 1 in the 1970s... its like inflation exists, im so stunned
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 2:19:09 PM
#22:


r4X0r posted...
josifrees posted...
Need to tie wages to the cost of living. At least that way luxury goods will be the ones with rising prices instead of necessities


You want to tie wages to living? So people should work whatever jobs they're capable of, and be compensated based on what they need?

Even Karl Marx realized that would never work.
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sktgamer_13dude
12/05/17 2:20:19 PM
#23:


r4X0r posted...
Balrog0 posted...
I actually don't view myself as having a strong opinion on the minimum wage, but it is one area where I do not see anyone but mindless conservatives talking about the potential downsides and so I try to inject some skepticism into the conversation when I can. Overall I think the evidence is good that we should raise minimum wages, but basically yeah, the implementation and overall level of the min. wage is more important than people seem to admit at least.


Labor is a commodity. When you increase the cost of a commodity, you decrease the demand for it. When you increase the minimum wage, you put people out of work. This isn't... conjecture or voodoo economics, it's plainly observable.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/uw-study-finds-seattles-minimum-wage-is-costing-jobs/

You jack up the minimum wage, you put people out of work. If raising the minimum wage is a good idea, why not make it $100? Everyone will be rich!

With this logic, lets lower wages to $0.01!

I mean, think of how much demand there would be!!!
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FLUFFYGERM
12/05/17 2:21:24 PM
#24:


Balrog0 posted...
Our results suggest that consumers rather than firms bear the cost of minimum wage increases. Moreover, poor households are most negatively affected by the price response. Price increases in grocery stores alone offset at least 10% of the nominal income gains of the poorest households.


no fucking shit. who would have thought that basic laws of economics and mathematics are more credible than muh feelingz? once again liberal policies do more damage to the people they claim to be helping lmao
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Awesome
12/05/17 2:24:01 PM
#25:


i posted this happens years ago and the liberals here and on neogaf were in denial and said derp if you cant pay your workers then dont own a business

good job america
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 2:24:10 PM
#26:


sktgamer_13dude posted...
With this logic, lets lower wages to $0.01!

The true minimum wage is already zero. The real problem is the gap between what your work is worth, and the amount a prospective employer cannot legally pay you less than.

(that grammar seems awkward. please help)
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Balrog0
12/05/17 2:24:12 PM
#27:


r4X0r posted...
Labor is a commodity. When you increase the cost of a commodity, you decrease the demand for it. When you increase the minimum wage, you put people out of work. This isn't... conjecture or voodoo economics, it's plainly observable.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/uw-study-finds-seattles-minimum-wage-is-costing-jobs/


you are citing one recent study and ignoring the body of research evidence which does not show this to be the case -- in fact, the very article I posted the abstract of shows that the companies in question did NOT eliminate jobs or reduce hours.

They rose prices.

These are two different things, with two different implications for the general welfare. Which is also a response to your next question:

r4X0r posted...
If raising the minimum wage is a good idea, why not make it $100? Everyone will be rich!


Because the discussion is more complicated than that, obviously.

Questionmarktarius posted...
But, the critical flaw is that there's no obligation to hire or continue employing. It punishes the very people it's intended to help, if their labor isn't worth the mandatory price floor, by making them effectively unemployable.
http://www.aei.org/publication/thomas-sowell-on-the-cruelty-of-minimum-wage-laws/


this is also cherrypicking one favorable study and ignoring all the rest. I do agree more with the next article, that the minimum wage disproportionately crowds out the low-skilled, younger, minority workers. The question is an empirical one, though, and they don't really do any empirical work here (the little bit they do ignores plenty of other things that were going on in labor markets at the time, like the fact that the industrial revolution happened in the timespan they are discussing lol)
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#28
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Balrog0
12/05/17 2:25:08 PM
#29:


FLUFFYGERM posted...
no fucking shit. who would have thought that basic laws of economics and mathematics are more credible than muh feelingz? once again liberal policies do more damage to the people they claim to be helping lmao


I really hope all of the people who are saying "obviously!" do not actually think these results are obvious since that is not the case based on prior research or even economic theory

I know that is not the case, though. ANything that confirms your bias is basic economics.
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 2:25:32 PM
#30:


Balrog0 posted...
I do agree more with the next article, that the minimum wage disproportionately crowds out the low-skilled, younger, minority workers.

Some day, I'll get you converted into a believer of the great wisdom of Thomas Sowell.
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Balrog0
12/05/17 2:25:42 PM
#31:


WhinyZach posted...
Is anyone actually surprised by this? If you can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time you should have enough brain power to realize this would be the out come of higher wages.


so do we raise prices as the obvious response to minimum wage increases, or do we cut hours, or do we fire employees? all of these obvious but different scenarios are confusing me!
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sktgamer_13dude
12/05/17 2:26:01 PM
#32:


FLUFFYGERM posted...
Balrog0 posted...
Our results suggest that consumers rather than firms bear the cost of minimum wage increases. Moreover, poor households are most negatively affected by the price response. Price increases in grocery stores alone offset at least 10% of the nominal income gains of the poorest households.


no fucking shit. who would have thought that basic laws of economics and mathematics are more credible than muh feelingz? once again liberal policies do more damage to the people they claim to be helping lmao

10% offset is not damaging rofl
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#33
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r4X0r
12/05/17 2:26:55 PM
#34:


sktgamer_13dude posted...

With this logic, lets lower wages to $0.01!

I mean, think of how much demand there would be!!!


The irony is that you're trying to be sarcastic but you're actually correct. Lots more unskilled jobs would open up, wages would probably settle around $5-$6 for unskilled high school kids, and we could do something about the disastrous youth unemployment rate.
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Balrog0
12/05/17 2:27:05 PM
#35:


WhinyZach posted...
all 3 lol


but only 1 of those were true here! :o
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r4X0r
12/05/17 2:28:09 PM
#36:


WhinyZach posted...


all 3 lol


In practice, yes, the damage is diversified by taking all three routes.
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FLUFFYGERM
12/05/17 2:30:06 PM
#37:


Balrog0 posted...
FLUFFYGERM posted...
no fucking shit. who would have thought that basic laws of economics and mathematics are more credible than muh feelingz? once again liberal policies do more damage to the people they claim to be helping lmao


I really hope all of the people who are saying "obviously!" do not actually think these results are obvious since that is not the case based on prior research or even economic theory

I know that is not the case, though. ANything that confirms your bias is basic economics.


it's pretty fuckin obvious that forcing wages to go up will mean higher costs for the consumer and lower employment for the employee, isn't it? over the long run
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 2:30:22 PM
#38:


Balrog0 posted...
WhinyZach posted...
Is anyone actually surprised by this? If you can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time you should have enough brain power to realize this would be the out come of higher wages.


so do we raise prices as the obvious response to minimum wage increases, or do we cut hours, or do we fire employees? all of these obvious but different scenarios are confusing me!

Some combination of all of the above, usually.
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Balrog0
12/05/17 2:31:58 PM
#39:


r4X0r posted...
WhinyZach posted...


all 3 lol


In practice, yes, the damage is diversified by taking all three routes.

Questionmarktarius posted...
Some combination of all of the above, usually.


literally not one single study of the three posted here show even 2 of these three things happening simultaneously, guys

the UW study doesn't even show a reduction in hours until the second increase in the minimum wage which is kind of my point, only packaged in a way that makes it seem unequivocally against min. wage increases
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r4X0r
12/05/17 2:32:35 PM
#41:


Balrog0 posted...

you are citing one recent study and ignoring the body of research evidence which does not show this to be the case -- in fact, the very article I posted the abstract of shows that the companies in question did NOT eliminate jobs or reduce hours.


The current body of minimum wage research says it doesn't have much effect because we've never doubled the minimum wage before. When we went from $2.00 to $2.10 in the mid seventies the effect was obviously different than going from $7.25 jumping up to $15. Because of that, the "body of research evidence" is irrelevant because what is happening is unprecedented.

http://beta.latimes.com/business/la-fi-seattle-minimum-wage-20170626-story.html

Minimum wage fight may heat up after new study finds jobs and hours fell in Seattle

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/columnists/dan-mcswain/sd-fi-minimum-wage-job-losses-restaurants-20170406-story.html

San Diego's new minimum wage already may be killing jobs

http://www.businessinsider.com/minimum-wage-leads-to-job-losses-2017-3

Minimum wage hikes are causing businesses to cut jobs

You're trying to talk theoretical economics while I'm looking at what's ACTUALLY HAPPENING around us as places do this.
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FLUFFYGERM
12/05/17 2:33:20 PM
#42:


r4X0r posted...
http://beta.latimes.com/business/la-fi-seattle-minimum-wage-20170626-story.html

Minimum wage fight may heat up after new study finds jobs and hours fell in Seattle

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/columnists/dan-mcswain/sd-fi-minimum-wage-job-losses-restaurants-20170406-story.html

San Diego's new minimum wage already may be killing jobs

http://www.businessinsider.com/minimum-wage-leads-to-job-losses-2017-3

Minimum wage hikes are causing businesses to cut jobs


again, this comes as a surprise to no one who wasn't already a leftist partisan hack of some sort lmao
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Romes187
12/05/17 2:35:14 PM
#43:


Balrog0 posted...
WhinyZach posted...
Is anyone actually surprised by this? If you can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time you should have enough brain power to realize this would be the out come of higher wages.


so do we raise prices as the obvious response to minimum wage increases, or do we cut hours, or do we fire employees? all of these obvious but different scenarios are confusing me!


we don't increase the minimum wage, we get rid of it.

:) but I could just be mindless
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Romes187
12/05/17 2:36:29 PM
#44:


in san diego food prices have NOTICEABLY gone up btw

my wife was a bartender when they started making the changes. Overnight the price of everything at the place she worked went up by like $2, and now everything is WAY higher.
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Anteaterking
12/05/17 2:37:02 PM
#45:


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LittleRoyal
12/05/17 2:46:03 PM
#46:


Lol so literally common knowledge
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emblem boy
12/05/17 2:46:54 PM
#47:


Tag
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 2:49:47 PM
#48:


r4X0r posted...
http://beta.latimes.com/business/la-fi-seattle-minimum-wage-20170626-story.html

Minimum wage fight may heat up after new study finds jobs and hours fell in Seattle

I'd venture the guess that Obamacare is more the cause of the 29-hour workweek than minimum wage.
The article is ambiguous (by omission) if this is total manhours, or individual hours. There's a hell of a lot difference between the two.
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sktgamer_13dude
12/05/17 3:32:57 PM
#49:


r4X0r posted...
sktgamer_13dude posted...

With this logic, lets lower wages to $0.01!

I mean, think of how much demand there would be!!!


The irony is that you're trying to be sarcastic but you're actually correct. Lots more unskilled jobs would open up, wages would probably settle around $5-$6 for unskilled high school kids, and we could do something about the disastrous youth unemployment rate.

Thats not how this works rofl

I was just showing how stupid your slippery slope was.
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Questionmarktarius
12/05/17 3:37:55 PM
#50:


sktgamer_13dude posted...
Thats not how this works rofl

Yes, yes it is.

http://www.freedomworks.org/content/compassion-means-rejecting-minimum-wage
In practice, its a federal edict that makes it illegal to hire workers not skilled enough to produce at least $7.25 per hour worth of goods or services.
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