Current Events > how bout dat dere special election in GA-6?

(+) Yeah! (+)

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6
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early results are extremely encouraging for Ossoff

still young in the evening, but he is actually winning Cobb county which is very unexpected
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For the uninitiated, this is a "jungle primary": unless someone wins 50% there will be a runoff of the top 2
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why the hell is the runoff not until June?

Is it always that stupidly delayed or is this just blatant election rigging?
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Antifar posted...

For the uninitiated, this is a "jungle primary": unless someone wins 50% there will be a runoff of the top 2

thank you

Democrats see tonight as their real shot at winning the seat. Popular opinion is if Ossoff fails to garner 50% tonight, he'll have a much tougher time getting to it in June
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dems spent billions there and the reason is understandable: if he didn't win a majority his odds of winning in a 1v1 against a republican would be far less

here, his opposition is split so he would certainly win the plurality
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Darkman124 posted...

dems spent billions there and the reason is understandable: if he didn't win a majority his odds of winning in a 1v1 against a republican would be far less

here, his opposition is split so he would certainly win the plurality

I don't think his chances of winning 1v1 are as much worse as people have indicated, largely because the frontrunning Republican is not a very good candidate. But yeah it does make sense

Have they really spent billions, though? I kinda doubt that lol
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billions? wow did i say billions

i am tired

sorry

millions
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That district is 60% red according to past results.
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Balrog0 posted...

Have they really spent billions, though?

no lol.

The worry is that it's one dem vs like 7 Repubs, so if he can't hit 50% now, everyone who voted R will likely come together and vote R again later. So Ossoff will basically have the exact same turnout (or less if Dem voters are discouraged) while the Rs will have the same as well, but all voting for the same person.
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Darkman124 posted...

billions? wow did i say billions

i am tired

sorry

millions

I'm surprised at how much the GOP and conservative groups have spent so far, actually.

It seems like a lot for there not being a solid GOP frontrunner.

Tropicalwood posted...

That district is 60% red according to past results.

but Trump only won it by like 1% so its a big deal
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9vDNo2XUAIMeCo.jpg:large
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I used to live in Cobb county for about 13 years, the whole county is definately more republican than democrat, probably a 75/25 split just from how much vocal support i remember for both bushes around the area.

aw shit its down to 50.8%
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Darkman124 posted...

aw shit its down to 50.8%

He's barely above 50% now

Still good sign for dems

He'll get like 49% right?
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mission failed
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It was still a good result for democrats

just not that good
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Expected result expected.
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Balrog0 posted...

It was still a good result for democrats

just not that good

Ehhh, not sure how "good" the result is for them. They may well win the run off, but from what I heard Trump only won this district by a point or two anyway which seems to indicate there is a fairly close split in the district. These results would seem to agree with that conclusion. Not to mention democrats were far more energized for this special election and it didn't seem to amount to much.
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Gojak_v3 posted...

Balrog0 posted...

It was still a good result for democrats

just not that good

Ehhh, not sure how "good" the result is for them. They may well win the run off, but from what I heard Trump only won this district by a point or two anyway which seems to indicate there is a fairly close split in the district. These results would seem to agree with that conclusion. Not to mention democrats were far more energized for this special election and it didn't seem to amount to much.

the district is strongly republican, it just was less trump country as it's more highly educated than a typical trump-voting district

it's part of the DNC strategy to target upper middle class whites like me rather than working class whites

and honestly, it is a huge waste of resources. had this resulted in a majority win, it'd be great but i doubt he'll win the runoff. RNC has way more money.

separate note: i am on a bunch of email lists since I donate money to progressive campaign organizations and jesus christ they are all spinning his plurality as a huge victory and egg on trump's face

it's a really effective winfow into the spin that is politics
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Gojak_v3 posted...

Ehhh, not sure how "good" the result is for them. They may well win the run off, but from what I heard Trump only won this district by a point or two anyway which seems to indicate there is a fairly close split in the district. These results would seem to agree with that conclusion. Not to mention democrats were far more energized for this special election and it didn't seem to amount to much.

yeah, because there aren't many democrats in the district; most of his support was from outside the state and outside the district, which he doesn't even live in lol

there are a lot of ways you can read this but it's not a great result for Republicans

Darkman124 posted...

the district is strongly republican, it just was less trump country as it's more highly educated than a typical trump-voting district

it's part of the DNC strategy to target upper middle class whites like me rather than working class whites

and honestly, it is a huge waste of resources. had this resulted in a majority win, it'd be great but i doubt he'll win the runoff. RNC has way more money.

Did the DNC or DCCC even spend money in this race? Most of the outside spending was from GOP groups. Ossoff himself just raised a lot of money from the interwebs

I think the DCCC did end up spending something on it at the very end, but what would you rather they do?
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Balrog0 posted...

yeah, because there aren't many democrats in the district; most of his support was from outside the state and outside the district, which he doesn't even live in lol

there are a lot of ways you can read this but it's not a great result for Republicans

No, I agree with you here. I just don't think this is a "great" result for the democrats either. It's clear this is a referendum on Trump. He only won the district by a point or two. These results seem to indicate it's more or less where it was in November despite the attention.
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Balrog0 posted...

Did the DNC or DCCC even spend money in this race? Most of the outside spending was from GOP groups. Ossoff himself just raised a lot of money from the interwebs

I think the DCCC did end up spending something on it at the very end, but what would you rather they do?

they spent 8 million dollars

i'd rather they had spent it on the NE candidate who lost by 8% because he was flat-out denied DCCC money and was only asking for a couple hundred thousand
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Gojak_v3 posted...

I just don't think this is a "great" result for the democrats either

nah, it's just "okay"

Darkman124 posted...

they spent 8 million dollars

no they didn't, dude

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2017/04/outside-groups-pour-8-2-million-into-georgia-6th/
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This is bad for dems.

Cheeto did a 180 change on all his policies, forgets the name of dignataries, his spokesman denies the holocaust and coined the term "holocaust centers", he has more conflicts of interest than anyone in history, many of his close collaborators are involved in a Russia scandal, and even then the dems could not take a district that cheeto won by only 2 points before all of that craziness happened.

We have to admit that maybe most of the population does harbor some sort of racist/xenophobe/homophobe sentiment and elections from now on are all about demographics and therefore, politics, qualifications, policies and performance don't matter. Cheeto could piss himself in the middle of a speech, then deed in front of the cameras and the same people that voted for him would vote for him again because of demographics.

It's over.

the only thing I can find about the DCCC is that they did this: http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/10/politics/georgia-special-election-spending-jon-ossoff/

and let him use staffers, which I guess you could construe as some kind of in-kind thing assuming they didn't make him pay for them
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huh...that seems to be his total. only 5% of that was raised locally but a lot of it could well have been his campaign

i've been wrong on this twice so im gonna stop weighing in

i think i am bitter over DNC refusal to help sanders-type dems
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Balrog0 posted...

nah, it's just "okay"

I wouldn't even go that far. They were hoping to avoid a run off, yet the expected result happened. If anything this is basically status quo.
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Georgia has turned a good bit bluer (is that a word) I think Hillary actually got a higher perecentage of votes than Obama did in 2012, the bigger counties below the gnat line turning bluer and several of the ATL's suburban counties becoming more purplish means the state in the next decade could actually be in play in presidential cycle, hope the national party is paying very close attention.
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