From: SubDeity | #2207 Oh jeez I hadn't noticed the percent pick thing until now. That changes everything...now I need to figure out what to play for. Going for 1% is a longshot but necessary if other people are playing it safe. If I lot of people play it risky (or drop due to not paying attention), though, I could sneak into a prize spot simply by being careful.
Yeah, the game theory type dynamics are very interesting here :) Will most people try too hard because they feel forced to take a big risk, thus making taking a big risk not a good idea because almost all of them will be wiped out? Or do you really need to take a big risk to win?
I think the latter is more likely - though I think the 1% thing is a very bad idea. The odds of that are very low, especially with Link/Mario and chaotic SFF. Nailing with 5% seems pretty doable though.
Vcharon you are right.The semi-finals are much better than the final match.Man what a dissapointing contest...
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Eh, I wouldn't say the odds on 1% are impossibly low. I'd say there's near 100% certainty that Link finishes with between 55 and 70% of the vote, and that gives you a 1 in 15 chance of nailing it if you choose randomly from that range. That's not great, but on the other hand...a 1 in 15 chance of winning a whole contest isn't all that bad.
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SubDeity wants to vote for Calvin Coolidge. [Evil Republican] Play Der Langrisser.
I'm not sure what would cause Link not to be within 60-70% honestly. He beat Mario 1v1 in 2010. "Rivalry factor" is pretty meaningless when it comes to Link I think, but if anything he's looked stronger with Ganondorf than without him. I wouldn't be shocked to see him outdo the performance in 2010, which might give people with that chance a shot at guessing between 65 and 70, a 20% chance to win the entire contest.
Man excluding this final match(if Link wins the semifinal)what was the other final match that had the most difference?I mean we are talking about at least a doubling here,I am not sure I remember another final that the winner had this much.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
Yeah 62% is really low for not to break.But anyway the final match will be stupid.So we will end with only 2 perfect brackets after all(I thought they would be more)and 60 perfect battlers.That is impressive actually.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
If they can keep Link/Ganon under 53% or so then the rest of the world may push them to victory but if they get crushed 57-42 in the US then they are toast. Lets hope they win some fans with the rivalry factor.
creativename posted... From: Haste_2 | #854 If L/G matches C/S, it means the Snakes are worth 70.43% on Alucard/Dracula. I haven't been around for a week, but I suppose there's still not a lot of expectation of Cloud/Sephiroth doing anything? You know that's actually very interesting, because Solid really is expected to get about 70% on Alucard, or extremely close to it. So the Snakes being worth 70% on Alucard/Dracula might actually be plausible - assuming no melty art or sprites of course!
The 2010 stats do indeed have Snake getting 69.67% on Alucard. However, as someone mentioned earlier, Snake's rivalry takes a serious hit compared to Snake himself due to being limited to MGS1 and being unable to draw from the rest of that series or Brawl, while Alucard's rivalry doesn't suffer from this as much because it still draws strength from all the same sources that Alucard normally draws from. And would you really expect Pac-Man to break 30% on Snake ordinarily?
If they can keep Link/Ganon under 53% or so then the rest of the world may push them to victory but if they get crushed 57-42 in the US then they are toast. Lets hope they win some fans with the rivalry factor.
That's the only reason FFVII loses these close matches. Friggin America with it's blowouts. IF FFVII can keep US to below 54% then FFVII has a real big shot at winning. IT nearly always wins everywhere else except NA.
IF Cloud can keep Link down to even to 54%...it would be an exciting match.
FFVII lost to OoT by 56%, Link beat cloud by 57%. The final results were 53.5 and 52.7. US makes such a big difference but if there was some way that the US vote was closer...some way....
The only other way for Cloud is Gamefaqs to become a much more bigger and more popular site outside NA.
From: Not_Wylvane | #463 I hope the Trainers smash C/S. Like, so bad that it makes Mario look indirectly stronger than Link.
That's never ever going to happen. and it should never happen either. I would be best if they get smashed by Cloud because they've over performed this contest. Enough to look great and the tournaments Stars but a reality check...you ain't getting past the Elite.
Doing better in Europe would also be a big help. 53% is okay in Europe, but Cloud/Sephiroth would be better off getting above 55% or more in Europe to affect the overall result more.
-- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
I'm surprised there will be, at most, 1 perfect for what has been a fairly predictable contest. At least 2 out of 4 perfects got today's wrong (GranzonEx, based on the guru bracket entered and Sentsuizan) and the other two have different winners tomorrow. Could even be no perfects depending on who the other two perfects chose today.
Some of those on 127 before today therefore may still be in with a shot of winning, it is known at least three have Link>Mario finals.
That is true.I wonder why Americans love Nintendo so much.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: Eternal_Debate | #469 I'm surprised there will be, at most, 1 perfect for what has been a fairly predictable contest. At least 2 out of 4 perfects got today's wrong (GranzonEx, based on the guru bracket entered and Sentsuizan) and the other two have different winners tomorrow. Could even be no perfects depending on who the other two perfects chose today.
Some of those on 127 before today therefore may still be in with a shot of winning, it is known at least three have Link>Mario finals.
It wasn't that bad for predictability. People are only complaining because the battle bracket means that people are more likely to get on board an upset train mid contest because their bracket depends on it. If there was no battle bracket, noone would have been advocating Trainers > Samus, even after the Ryu match.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
I disagree with that strongly. We've already seen evidence Pokemon can boost to stronger than usual levels the deeper they go into a contest. Picking Charizard over Bowser was a safe call before it happened, though obviously not prior to the contest itself.
Here picking Trainers over Samus was a very safe bet, even BEFORE the Ryu match. It was clear Pokemon was heading for another near elite run based on their early performances, and it was clear Samus was terrible in this format based on her performances.
Man, Pokemon's impressed against Mario multiple times recently. Red/Blue's currently got ~45.91% on Mario/Bowser after embarrassing Luigi/Waluigi in a debated match with 77.96%, Charizard got 54.73% on Bowser and 46.41% on Mario, Missingno got 51.51% on Yoshi after nearly doubling Toad in the vote-ins despite Mudkip and Jigglypuff, and Pokemon beat Mario in our last Nintendo-poll...
...I'd take Super Mario > Pokemon, but I'd still like to see how well Pokemon could do one-on-one against Super Mario. It's building a good resume for itself in such a match.
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A.
From: HaRRicH | #476 Man, Pokemon's impressed against Mario multiple times recently. Red/Blue's currently got ~45.91% on Mario/Bowser after embarrassing Luigi/Waluigi in a debated match with 77.96%, Charizard got 54.73% on Bowser and 46.41% on Mario, Missingno got 51.51% on Yoshi after nearly doubling Toad in the vote-ins despite Mudkip and Jigglypuff, and Pokemon beat Mario in our last Nintendo-poll...
...I'd take Super Mario > Pokemon, but I'd still like to see how well Pokemon could do one-on-one against Super Mario. It's building a good resume for itself in such a match.
Mario the series would 60-40 Pokemon. The series is stronger than the plumber, who is stronger than any Pokemon entity.
From: HaRRicH | #476 Man, Pokemon's impressed against Mario multiple times recently. Red/Blue's currently got ~45.91% on Mario/Bowser after embarrassing Luigi/Waluigi in a debated match with 77.96%, Charizard got 54.73% on Bowser and 46.41% on Mario, Missingno got 51.51% on Yoshi after nearly doubling Toad in the vote-ins despite Mudkip and Jigglypuff, and Pokemon beat Mario in our last Nintendo-poll...
...I'd take Super Mario > Pokemon, but I'd still like to see how well Pokemon could do one-on-one against Super Mario. It's building a good resume for itself in such a match.
Trainers/Luigi was debated?
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
From: HaRRicH | #476 Man, Pokemon's impressed against Mario multiple times recently. Red/Blue's currently got ~45.91% on Mario/Bowser after embarrassing Luigi/Waluigi in a debated match with 77.96%, Charizard got 54.73% on Bowser and 46.41% on Mario, Missingno got 51.51% on Yoshi after nearly doubling Toad in the vote-ins despite Mudkip and Jigglypuff, and Pokemon beat Mario in our last Nintendo-poll...
...I'd take Super Mario > Pokemon, but I'd still like to see how well Pokemon could do one-on-one against Super Mario. It's building a good resume for itself in such a match.
Wouldn't even be close. Mario series would crush Pokemon. When has Pokemon ever looked good in these contest that didn't involve 1st/2nd Gen characters/games? It hasn't. Because noone cares about it now.
It's a pretty good gain, I'm sure it'll slow down/stop with the ASV (even on a Saturday). Easy win though, and will probably end up where Charizard lost to Mario or somewhere near it.
They will not be able to survive the first hour or two the way Mario did though, but I still have no real doubts they can beat the Trainers. They've done pretty well this contest.
Would anyone like to see Trainers vs Link,Trainers vs Cloud,Mario vs Cloud as bonus matches?I mean yeah the final 4 all battling each other.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
Pokemon in the semifinals against a huge name, they challenged during the Power Hour, could have had a winnable situation with some rallies... and we're headed for right around 52,000 votes.
Save us Harry Potter.
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This match is getting less votes than Samus/Trainers. I figure with Mario being a bigger name than Samus, it would help out with bringing in the votes.
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