Board 8 > Dems | 1.91 mil | 50.42% | Reps | 1.82 mil | 48.37% [Today's GA Senate Runoff!]

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Ngamer64 01/05/21 6:29:54 AM #1:	The numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for the Republicans in today's Georgia runoff election (for control of the US Senate through 2022). The Republican candidates (Perdue and Loeffler) have been considered favorites to survive these challenges and keep the Senate total at 52 GOP, 48 Democrat. And I completely understand why. All the polling in the state has been too close to call, and given how much Trump overperformed versus most polls, that's a good position to be in as a Republican. Perdue finished over 88k votes ahead of Ossoff head to head in November, and the GOP candidates combined outpaced the Dem options in the Warnock/Loeffler special election. Plus Republicans have always overperformed in GA runoffs versus the general election. When you combine all of the above with how well the Senate races went for the GOP overall in November, it seems like an open and shut case. The only problem is... the numbers are in, and frankly, they look brutal. No prior Georgia runoff has ever received more than 2.2 million votes, but over 3 million have already been cast in this race! Over 967k mail in ballots have been returned (and that number will continue to climb) while more than 2 million people voted in person. But big deal, right? The state had more than 4 million early votes cast in November, and the final margin was still razor thin. Here's where we come to the one important difference between the two elections. *This time, Donald Trump isn't on the ballot.* Ummmm okay, but does that really matter? I'll let you be the judge. As you can see, we've reached 73% of November's total when it comes to votes cast by mail. Surprisingly, a larger portion of white people are choosing to use this method for the runoff, bumping their representation by .66%. That's dwarfed by black voters boosting their numbers by 1.77%, but less interest from Hispanic and Asian voters should mean that Democratic gains in this area are pretty limited. Now it's time to check the Early In-Person results, and here's where things get ugly. The first thing you notice is how much more popular this method of voting has been- double the number of ballots and a stronger 77% of November's total. That wouldn't be a problem expect, whoa are black people ever turning out to the polls (up nearly 4%) while representation from white voters has fallen off a cliff (down 1.5%)! A slight dip in the Latino vote isn't going to do nearly enough to cover up for those losses. Alright, that's nice and all, but what does this change in voter demographics really mean? Let's do a thought experiment and try to assign hard numbers to the above. Based on the results in November, we know that a Georgia voter's race was huge indicator for what candidate they were likely to support. The final breakdown was Based on the above, we can use November's racial results breakdown to estimate that Joe Biden won Georgia's Mail In Voting 690k to 609k, 52% to 46% a 81k vote margin, or 6.15% That was about as expected. More surprisingly, it would indicate Biden ALSO managed a tight victory for the GA Early In-Person Voting 1.34 million to 1.32 million, 49.7% to 48.9% a 22k vote margin, or 0.83% Now let's assume that for the most part Biden voters will go Warnock/Ossoff today while Trump voters will side with a Perdue/Loeffler ticket. If so, here are the current standings for the Mail In Runoff The Dems increase their win from 6.15% to 6.74%, however because this voting method was less popular, their margin falls to only 65k votes in this area versus Biden's 81k. That's okay, but isn't going to be enough to erase the ~88k gap we saw in Perdue/Ossoff last time around. Luckily for them there's still the Early In-Person results to tally, and boy howdy! From .83% this advantage has exploded to 3.94%. When you combine that with how much more important this area is (remember, twice as many votes), the race has been blown wide open! Now the Democrats are favored to win this category by 82k votes instead of Biden's 22k, and the result is drastic. Biden entered Election Day with a slim lead of 103k votes, or 2.58%, and accordingly Georgia came down to the wire with crucial votes still being tallied a week later. However for this runoff, the Democrats enter today with a lead of 147k votes, or 4.83% of all votes cast so far. (And remember, that's with quite a few mail in ballots still to arrive.) It's going to take an enormous Election Day turnout to erase that advantage. Can it be done? Sure, but the thing to remember is... no one wants to wait in long lines during a pandemic. Only 985k Georgians cast their ballots in person on Election Day, representing just 19.7% of total votes cast and making it by far the least popular of the three voting options. The good news for Republicans: they performed very well with those who DID show up, with Trump getting 54% of ED support to Biden's 45%. Even so, that only erased 92k votes from Biden's advantage, which explains how Trump finished 11k behind overall. If Republicans once again dominate Election Day voting by 9.3% today, but the same 19.7% end up turning out (aka ~747k new voters), they will only be able to eliminate 69k from the Democrat's lead. That would give us a final result of 3,787,027 Votes Cast 1,909,285 for the Democratic Candidates (50.42%) 1,831,887 for the Republican Candidates (48.37%) a 77,398 vote margin of victory, or 2.04% With mail in voting trending downward it would appear that fewer Georgians are concerned about COVID now versus November, so it's certainly possible for the Election Day turnout to surge above 20% and if so the final result could be closer than what you see above. I don't think the ED crowd is going to go tooooo crazy though... everyone's aware of November's Election Day and employers encourage people to take long lunch breaks and vote, it's a national tradition. Today's just a random Tuesday in January, I think if you were super fired up to do your patriotic duty you'd be more likely to have already stood in line and voted sometime last month. Alright so there you have it; take this Ng Deep Dive for what you will. If anyone's trying to place a bet on the result or win a guessing competition, I'd recommend picking Warnock to run slightly ahead of what you see listed above while Ossoff runs slightly behind (but still manages a win). Good luck, America! --- which would be completely ridiculous, by the way Georgia Statewide Numbers as of November 3rd 1914 new COVID infections being reported per day 25 new COVID deaths being reported per day 1745 patients hospitalized with COVID symptoms Georgia Statewide Numbers as of Today 8305 new COVID infections being reported per day 37 new COVID deaths being reported per day 5514 patients hospitalized with COVID symptoms --- Spreadsheet in case anyone would like a closer look at the numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing --- Congrats to azuarc, Mario Kart 64 AND GameFAQs Contest Legend! board8.fandom.com/wiki/The_Show \| thengamer.com/xstats <cite>Ngamer64 posted [p:949122020] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>The numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for the Republicans in today's Georgia runoff election (for control of the US Senate through 2022). The Republican candidates (Perdue and Loeffler) have been considered favorites to survive these challenges and keep the Senate total at 52 GOP, 48 Democrat. And I completely understand why. All the polling in the state has been too close to call, and given how much Trump overperformed versus most polls, that's a good position to be in as a Republican. Perdue finished over 88k votes ahead of Ossoff head to head in November, and the GOP candidates combined outpaced the Dem options in the Warnock/Loeffler special election. Plus Republicans have always overperformed in GA runoffs versus the general election. When you combine all of the above with how well the Senate races went for the GOP overall in November, it seems like an open and shut case. The only problem is... the numbers are in, and frankly, they look brutal. No prior Georgia runoff has ever received more than 2.2 million votes, but over 3 million have already been cast in this race! Over 967k mail in ballots have been returned (and that number will continue to climb) while more than 2 million people voted in person. But big deal, right? The state had more than 4 million early votes cast in November, and the final margin was still razor thin. Here's where we come to the one important difference between the two elections. This time, Donald Trump isn't on the ballot. Ummmm okay, but does that really matter? I'll let you be the judge. As you can see, we've reached 73% of November's total when it comes to votes cast by mail. Surprisingly, a larger portion of white people are choosing to use this method for the runoff, bumping their representation by .66%. That's dwarfed by black voters boosting their numbers by 1.77%, but less interest from Hispanic and Asian voters should mean that Democratic gains in this area are pretty limited. Now it's time to check the Early In-Person results, and here's where things get ugly. The first thing you notice is how much more popular this method of voting has been- double the number of ballots and a stronger 77% of November's total. That wouldn't be a problem expect, whoa are black people ever turning out to the polls (up nearly 4%) while representation from white voters has fallen off a cliff (down 1.5%)! A slight dip in the Latino vote isn't going to do nearly enough to cover up for those losses. Alright, that's nice and all, but what does this change in voter demographics really mean? Let's do a thought experiment and try to assign hard numbers to the above. Based on the results in November, we know that a Georgia voter's race was huge indicator for what candidate they were likely to support. The final breakdown was Based on the above, we can use November's racial results breakdown to estimate that Joe Biden won Georgia's Mail In Voting 690k to 609k, 52% to 46% a 81k vote margin, or 6.15% That was about as expected. More surprisingly, it would indicate Biden ALSO managed a tight victory for the GA Early In-Person Voting 1.34 million to 1.32 million, 49.7% to 48.9% a 22k vote margin, or 0.83% Now let's assume that for the most part Biden voters will go Warnock/Ossoff today while Trump voters will side with a Perdue/Loeffler ticket. If so, here are the current standings for the Mail In Runoff The Dems increase their win from 6.15% to 6.74%, however because this voting method was less popular, their margin falls to only 65k votes in this area versus Biden's 81k. That's okay, but isn't going to be enough to erase the ~88k gap we saw in Perdue/Ossoff last time around. Luckily for them there's still the Early In-Person results to tally, and boy howdy! From .83% this advantage has exploded to 3.94%. When you combine that with how much more important this area is (remember, twice as many votes), the race has been blown wide open! Now the Democrats are favored to win this category by 82k votes instead of Biden's 22k, and the result is drastic. Biden entered Election Day with a slim lead of 103k votes, or 2.58%, and accordingly Georgia came down to the wire with crucial votes still being tallied a week later. However for this runoff, the Democrats enter today with a lead of 147k votes, or 4.83% of all votes cast so far. (And remember, that's with quite a few mail in ballots still to arrive.) It's going to take an enormous Election Day turnout to erase that advantage. Can it be done? Sure, but the thing to remember is... no one wants to wait in long lines during a pandemic. Only 985k Georgians cast their ballots in person on Election Day, representing just 19.7% of total votes cast and making it by far the least popular of the three voting options. The good news for Republicans: they performed very well with those who DID show up, with Trump getting 54% of ED support to Biden's 45%. Even so, that only erased 92k votes from Biden's advantage, which explains how Trump finished 11k behind overall. If Republicans once again dominate Election Day voting by 9.3% today, but the same 19.7% end up turning out (aka ~747k new voters), they will only be able to eliminate 69k from the Democrat's lead. That would give us a final result of 3,787,027 Votes Cast 1,909,285 for the Democratic Candidates (50.42%) 1,831,887 for the Republican Candidates (48.37%) a 77,398 vote margin of victory, or 2.04% With mail in voting trending downward it would appear that fewer Georgians are concerned about COVID now versus November, so it's certainly possible for the Election Day turnout to surge above 20% and if so the final result could be closer than what you see above. I don't think the ED crowd is going to go tooooo crazy though... everyone's aware of November's Election Day and employers encourage people to take long lunch breaks and vote, it's a national tradition. Today's just a random Tuesday in January, I think if you were super fired up to do your patriotic duty you'd be more likely to have already stood in line and voted sometime last month. Alright so there you have it; take this Ng Deep Dive for what you will. If anyone's trying to place a bet on the result or win a guessing competition, I'd recommend picking Warnock to run slightly ahead of what you see listed above while Ossoff runs slightly behind (but still manages a win). Good luck, America! --- which would be completely ridiculous, by the way Georgia Statewide Numbers as of November 3rd 1914 new COVID infections being reported per day 25 new COVID deaths being reported per day 1745 patients hospitalized with COVID symptoms Georgia Statewide Numbers as of Today 8305 new COVID infections being reported per day 37 new COVID deaths being reported per day 5514 patients hospitalized with COVID symptoms --- Spreadsheet in case anyone would like a closer look at the numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Janus5k 01/05/21 7:07:09 AM #2:	Interesting calculations, though I'll believe a Dem win when I see it and not before. --- As a guru, only azuarc could ever find forever. <cite>Janus5k posted [p:949122440] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Interesting calculations, though I'll believe a Dem win when I see it and not before. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
xp1337 01/05/21 7:11:00 AM #3:	Janus5k posted... Interesting calculations, though I'll believe a Dem win when I see it and not before. Yeah. I know some of the early data has been promising and the kind of thing you'd need to see materialize for a Dem win to happen but I'm also firmly in "believe it when I see it" mode here for purely emotional reasons. can't be let down as hard if you keep your hopes low after all I do agree with you that Warnock is running ahead of Ossoff though. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:949122494] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Janus5k posted... </cite> <quote>Interesting calculations, though I'll believe a Dem win when I see it and not before.</quote>Yeah. I know some of the early data has been promising and the kind of thing you'd need to see materialize for a Dem win to happen but I'm also firmly in "believe it when I see it" mode here for purely emotional reasons. can't be let down as hard if you keep your hopes low after all I do agree with you that Warnock is running ahead of Ossoff though. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Crescent-Moon 01/05/21 7:26:57 AM #4:	A Democrat has never won a runoff election in the state of Georgia on any political level. Janus5k posted... Interesting calculations, though I'll believe a Dem win when I see it and not before. So, this. --- So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten! <cite>Crescent-Moon posted [p:949122736] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>A Democrat has never won a runoff election in the state of Georgia on any political level. Janus5k posted... </cite> <quote>Interesting calculations, though I'll believe a Dem win when I see it and not before.</quote>So, this. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
_stingers_ 01/05/21 7:58:27 AM #5:	Crescent-Moon posted... A Democrat has never won a runoff election in the state of Georgia on any political level. So, this. Don't runoff elections usually get practically no votes though? This one is pretty different for obvious reaaons --- Congrats Black Turtle! <cite>_stingers_ posted [p:949123236] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Crescent-Moon posted... </cite> <quote>A Democrat has never won a runoff election in the state of Georgia on any political level. So, this.</quote>Don't runoff elections usually get practically no votes though? This one is pretty different for obvious reaaons </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
xp1337 01/05/21 8:08:11 AM #6:	Yeah, runoff elections see reduced turnout, and that'll still be true here. It's really a matter of which base sees its turnout drop least. All that said, where I would break from Ngamer's analysis is that I would expect the Election Day vote to be more lopsided than it was in the general, so I feel the Dem candidates would need a larger lead coming into today to withstand election day voting. If it's really only 147k like Ngamer is predicting I think they're doomed. I wouldn't feel great even if it were 200k. Now, some preliminary data during early voting has been promising for Dems, but largely in a way that "Dems need x,y, and z to happen to have a chance" and so far x, y, and z are holding but that's positive in a "well they aren't clearly doomed like you'd expect them to be a runoff; this is still in play" way. That said, I think Dems have basically left it all out on the field here while Republicans (mostly Trump) are seemingly doing everything they can to lose so if the Republicans still win here I think it just shows this was basically an impossible challenge for the Dems. FWIW, Purdue in particular got more votes than Ossoff in November to begin with he just failed to clear 50% to avoid this runoff. It's very much uphill in a lot of ways. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:949123408] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Yeah, runoff elections see reduced turnout, and that'll still be true here. It's really a matter of which base sees its turnout drop least. All that said, where I would break from Ngamer's analysis is that I would expect the Election Day vote to be more lopsided than it was in the general, so I feel the Dem candidates would need a larger lead coming into today to withstand election day voting. If it's really only 147k like Ngamer is predicting I think they're doomed. I wouldn't feel great even if it were 200k. Now, some preliminary data during early voting has been promising for Dems, but largely in a way that "Dems need x,y, and z to happen to have a chance" and so far x, y, and z are holding but that's positive in a "well they aren't clearly doomed like you'd expect them to be a runoff; this is still in play" way. That said, I think Dems have basically left it all out on the field here while Republicans (mostly Trump) are seemingly doing everything they can to lose so if the Republicans still win here I think it just shows this was basically an impossible challenge for the Dems. FWIW, Purdue in particular got more votes than Ossoff in November to begin with he just failed to clear 50% to avoid this runoff. It's very much uphill in a lot of ways. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Crescent-Moon 01/05/21 8:10:26 AM #7:	My thought this whole time is the Republicans win fairly comfortably but not nearly as comfortably as they like and we just get more squabbling out of it despite them winning. --- So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten! <cite>Crescent-Moon posted [p:949123452] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>My thought this whole time is the Republicans win fairly comfortably but not nearly as comfortably as they like and we just get more squabbling out of it despite them winning. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 01/05/21 8:14:58 AM #8:	I leave Georgia and within five years everything's gone to pot --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:949123540] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>I leave Georgia and within five years everything's gone to pot </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik7 01/05/21 8:28:04 AM #9:	Early voting always is towards the democrat and democrat registered voters always outnumber republicans. Day of voting will favor the Republicans. Independents will be the key to who wins as always. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik PSN User Name - Corrik7 Currently playing: Control (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:949123767] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Early voting always is towards the democrat and democrat registered voters always outnumber republicans. Day of voting will favor the Republicans. Independents will be the key to who wins as always. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Eddv 01/05/21 9:07:54 AM #10:	https://xkcd.com/1122/ Crescent-Moon posted... A Democrat has never won a runoff election in the state of Georgia on any political level. So, this. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason https://imgur.com/AWY4xHy <cite>Eddv posted [p:949124568] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote> https://xkcd.com/1122/ Crescent-Moon posted... </cite> <quote>A Democrat has never won a runoff election in the state of Georgia on any political level. So, this.</quote> </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
redrocket 01/05/21 9:28:43 AM #11:	Eddv posted... https://xkcd.com/1122/ No Democrat incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. seems legit --- It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest <cite>redrocket posted [p:949125055] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Eddv posted... </cite> <quote>https://xkcd.com/1122/</quote> No Democrat incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. seems legit </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 01/05/21 10:21:06 AM #13:	Ngamer, can you find more votes for the Dems please? Just say you recounted. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:949126392] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Ngamer, can you find more votes for the Dems please? Just say you recounted.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jakyl25 01/05/21 10:23:53 AM #14:	But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:949126461] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 01/05/21 10:30:10 AM #15:	Jakyl25 posted... But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout Based on all my Georgia Trump supporters I've seen on Facebook, this hasn't happened among them. Small sample size, of course. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:949126626] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Jakyl25 posted... </cite> <quote>But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout</quote> Based on all my Georgia Trump supporters I've seen on Facebook, this hasn't happened among them. Small sample size, of course. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jakyl25 01/05/21 10:32:46 AM #16:	Leonhart4 posted... Based on all my Georgia Trump supporters I've seen on Facebook, this hasn't happened among them. Small sample size, of course. Is there cognitive dissonance regarding the election, or do they not really buy that November was stolen from them? --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:949126694] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Leonhart4 posted...</cite> <quote> Based on all my Georgia Trump supporters I've seen on Facebook, this hasn't happened among them. Small sample size, of course. </quote> Is there cognitive dissonance regarding the election, or do they not really buy that November was stolen from them?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 01/05/21 10:35:36 AM #17:	Eh, it's probably fairly split. There are definitely several who adamantly believe the election was stolen and haven't stopped posting about it for two months. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:949126767] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Eh, it's probably fairly split. There are definitely several who adamantly believe the election was stolen and haven't stopped posting about it for two months. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 01/05/21 10:37:59 AM #18:	Jakyl25 posted... But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout Totally different country, but in Turkey they reran the Istanbul mayoral election when the left-leaning opposition narrowly beat Erdogans party, citing irregularities, and the result of the rerun was a near-landslide for the opposition - it totally backfired on Erdogan. People do not like when parties guilty of shady business themselves claim that an election they lost was not legit. However, its the moderates who would flip in this scenario. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh azuarc <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:949126835] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Jakyl25 posted... </cite> <quote>But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout</quote> Totally different country, but in Turkey they reran the Istanbul mayoral election when the left-leaning opposition narrowly beat Erdogans party, citing irregularities, and the result of the rerun was a near-landslide for the opposition - it totally backfired on Erdogan. People do not like when parties guilty of shady business themselves claim that an election they lost was not legit. However, its the moderates who would flip in this scenario. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Crescent-Moon 01/05/21 10:39:39 AM #19:	Leonhart4 posted... Eh, it's probably fairly split. There are definitely several who adamantly believe the election was stolen and haven't stopped posting about it for two months. We'll be seeing this for the next four years and it will be a hot topic for the next Presidential election even if Trump isn't running. Part of the campaign will be based on 2020 being stolen and not letting it happen again. Like, this narrative is probably never going to go away. I don't think all of the damage done by it is fixable. I have never regretted my decision to refuse to make a Facebook or Twitter account~ It'd really surprise me to see the Democrats win the runoffs. It's possible, but I feel like media hype is making it feel more likely than it is. --- So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten! <cite>Crescent-Moon posted [p:949126887] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Leonhart4 posted... </cite> <quote>Eh, it's probably fairly split. There are definitely several who adamantly believe the election was stolen and haven't stopped posting about it for two months.</quote>We'll be seeing this for the next four years and it will be a hot topic for the next Presidential election even if Trump isn't running. Part of the campaign will be based on 2020 being stolen and not letting it happen again. Like, this narrative is probably never going to go away. I don't think all of the damage done by it is fixable. I have never regretted my decision to refuse to make a Facebook or Twitter account~ It'd really surprise me to see the Democrats win the runoffs. It's possible, but I feel like media hype is making it feel more likely than it is. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 01/05/21 10:40:37 AM #20:	Now I will say that I'd be stunned if Kemp won another term as governor. Conservatives in Georgia have definitely turned on that guy. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:949126918] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Now I will say that I'd be stunned if Kemp won another term as governor. Conservatives in Georgia have definitely turned on that guy. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 01/05/21 1:35:40 PM #22:	NGamer, we actually have the breakdown by vote type for the November election from the GA secretary of state's website though, and they show much bigger disparities based on vote type than your projected numbers based on race: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/detail/5000 Mail Absentee: Trump 451,157 Biden 849,729 Early In Person: Trump 1,419,161 Biden 1,250,509 Election Day: Trump 587,697 Biden 367,205 There were also about 11k provisional votes, which Biden won by about 3k. Not sure if this would change your analysis in a meaningful way as far as predicting the overall result goes. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:949132660] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>NGamer, we actually have the breakdown by vote type for the November election from the GA secretary of state's website though, and they show much bigger disparities based on vote type than your projected numbers based on race: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/detail/5000 Mail Absentee: Trump 451,157 Biden 849,729 Early In Person: Trump 1,419,161 Biden 1,250,509 Election Day: Trump 587,697 Biden 367,205 There were also about 11k provisional votes, which Biden won by about 3k. Not sure if this would change your analysis in a meaningful way as far as predicting the overall result goes. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons 01/05/21 2:22:35 PM #23:	Leonhart4 posted... Now I will say that I'd be stunned if Kemp won another term as governor. Conservatives in Georgia have definitely turned on that guy. I dont understand how all of these politicians that align themselves with Trump dont realize that hell throw them under the bus the second its convenient. Kemp was a huge Trumper, and now hes dead to them for the grave sin of not being willing to literally steal an election for him (and it looks like Pence is gonna have the same thing happen to him tomorrow!) --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:949134363] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Leonhart4 posted... </cite> <quote>Now I will say that I'd be stunned if Kemp won another term as governor. Conservatives in Georgia have definitely turned on that guy.</quote>I dont understand how all of these politicians that align themselves with Trump dont realize that hell throw them under the bus the second its convenient. Kemp was a huge Trumper, and now hes dead to them for the grave sin of not being willing to literally steal an election for him (and it looks like Pence is gonna have the same thing happen to him tomorrow!) </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 01/05/21 2:23:33 PM #24:	Oh yeah, Trump is already hinting that he's about to throw Pence to the wayside now that he doesn't need him for evangelical votes anymore. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:949134407] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Oh yeah, Trump is already hinting that he's about to throw Pence to the wayside now that he doesn't need him for evangelical votes anymore. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 01/05/21 2:24:00 PM #25:	LordoftheMorons posted... I dont understand how all of these politicians that align themselves with Trump dont realize that hell throw them under the bus the second its convenient. Kemp was a huge Trumper, and now hes dead to them for the grave sin of not being willing to literally steal an election for him (and it looks like Pence is gonna have the same thing happen to him tomorrow!) Of course he'll turn on them, but if they had opposed him they would already have lost their positions, or never acquired them to start with. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:949134420] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>LordoftheMorons posted... </cite> <quote>I dont understand how all of these politicians that align themselves with Trump dont realize that hell throw them under the bus the second its convenient. Kemp was a huge Trumper, and now hes dead to them for the grave sin of not being willing to literally steal an election for him (and it looks like Pence is gonna have the same thing happen to him tomorrow!)</quote> Of course he'll turn on them, but if they had opposed him they would already have lost their positions, or never acquired them to start with. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64 01/05/21 2:33:30 PM #26:	xp1337 posted... where I would break from Ngamer's analysis is that I would expect the Election Day vote to be more lopsided than it was in the general, so I feel the Dem candidates would need a larger lead coming into today to withstand election day voting. The Republicans might outperform the ~10% win I have drawn up for them today, but things are not looking promising in terms of total turnout. Chatham County saw a record early voting turnout but today, officials are seeing slow turnout. For example, a polling station at the civic center in downtown Savannah is seeing eight to nine ballots cast an hour, CNN's Martin Savidge reports. The voter turnout for today may be lower than projected. Sterling added that the average wait times theyve seen around the state have been between 1 and 5 minutes this morning. That's the kind of story we're hearing all across the state, so the Republicans are going to need to hope the current Democratic lead isn't actually as large as I calculated. Corrik7 posted... Early voting always is towards the democrat and democrat registered voters always outnumber republicans. Day of voting will favor the Republicans. Independents will be the key to who wins as always. That's all true, but it's also all accounted for in my data. Jakyl25 posted... But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout I think it has, and that the Early In-Person numbers reflect this new reality. --- Congrats to azuarc, Mario Kart 64 AND GameFAQs Contest Legend! board8.fandom.com/wiki/The_Show \| thengamer.com/xstats <cite>Ngamer64 posted [p:949134764] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>xp1337 posted... </cite> <quote>where I would break from Ngamer's analysis is that I would expect the Election Day vote to be more lopsided than it was in the general, so I feel the Dem candidates would need a larger lead coming into today to withstand election day voting.</quote>The Republicans might outperform the ~10% win I have drawn up for them today, but things are not looking promising in terms of total turnout. Chatham County saw a record early voting turnout but today, officials are seeing slow turnout. For example, a polling station at the civic center in downtown Savannah is seeing eight to nine ballots cast an hour, CNN's Martin Savidge reports. The voter turnout for today may be lower than projected. Sterling added that the average wait times theyve seen around the state have been between 1 and 5 minutes this morning. That's the kind of story we're hearing all across the state, so the Republicans are going to need to hope the current Democratic lead isn't actually as large as I calculated. Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>Early voting always is towards the democrat and democrat registered voters always outnumber republicans. Day of voting will favor the Republicans. Independents will be the key to who wins as always.</quote>That's all true, but it's also all accounted for in my data. Jakyl25 posted... </cite> <quote>But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout</quote>I think it has, and that the Early In-Person numbers reflect this new reality. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
masterplum 01/05/21 2:40:48 PM #27:	I don't pretend to know what will happen today. Both Democrats or Both Republicans could win by 5% and I wouldn't be surprised --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdWiElvIQAAQpBt.jpg <cite>masterplum posted [p:949135001] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>I don't pretend to know what will happen today. Both Democrats or Both Republicans could win by 5% and I wouldn't be surprised </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MarkS222222222222222 01/05/21 2:45:22 PM #28:	What's the source you're using for early results? --- This is quite a username I have here. <cite>MarkS222222222222222 posted [p:949135176] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>What's the source you're using for early results? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 01/05/21 3:04:00 PM #29:	Just had a friend post something along the lines of "they'll probably cheat but I voted anyway" --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:949135916] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Just had a friend post something along the lines of "they'll probably cheat but I voted anyway" </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 01/05/21 3:57:42 PM #31:	UltimaterializerX posted... Trumps biggest mistake was not naming Bernie his VP. That ticket would have won in a true landslide. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:949137885] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>UltimaterializerX posted... </cite> <quote>Trumps biggest mistake was not naming Bernie his VP.</quote> That ticket would have won in a true landslide. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Hbthebattle 01/05/21 4:01:36 PM #33:	Do you really think bernie would have accepted --- Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD Guru! <cite>Hbthebattle posted [p:949138031] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Do you really think bernie would have accepted </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 01/05/21 4:03:07 PM #34:	Bernie hasn't gotten any of his ideas passed through his whole career in Congress. This would have been a once-in-a-lifetime chance to actually get a lot of his ideas passed. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:949138086] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Bernie hasn't gotten any of his ideas passed through his whole career in Congress. This would have been a once-in-a-lifetime chance to actually get a lot of his ideas passed. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 01/05/21 4:07:47 PM #35:	I don't think Trump gets the massive evangelical support he received with Bernie as his VP although I guess you're arguing he wouldn't have needed it --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:949138264] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>I don't think Trump gets the massive evangelical support he received with Bernie as his VP although I guess you're arguing he wouldn't have needed it </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 01/05/21 4:16:16 PM #36:	Maybe he loses a little bit of evangelical support, but I don't think they have anywhere else to go. Hillary is a complete non-starter, but Biden isn't far behind. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:949138584] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Maybe he loses a little bit of evangelical support, but I don't think they have anywhere else to go. Hillary is a complete non-starter, but Biden isn't far behind. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 01/05/21 4:17:16 PM #37:	I think a lot of them just stay home. --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:949138621] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>I think a lot of them just stay home. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64 01/05/21 4:25:03 PM #38:	MarkS222222222222222 posted... What's the source you're using for early results? https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html --- Congrats to azuarc, Mario Kart 64 AND GameFAQs Contest Legend! board8.fandom.com/wiki/The_Show \| thengamer.com/xstats <cite>Ngamer64 posted [p:949138902] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>MarkS222222222222222 posted... </cite> <quote>What's the source you're using for early results?</quote>https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 01/05/21 4:43:07 PM #40:	Lincoln did it in 1864 and won. I think that's the last time it's been tried by a major party. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:949139571] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Lincoln did it in 1864 and won. I think that's the last time it's been tried by a major party. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MoogleKupo141 01/05/21 4:48:52 PM #41:	In 8 years, what is actually stopping Dan Crenshaw from running with AOC as his VP? Is there a rule against it? the thing stopping him is that theyre completely ideologically incompatible you cant complain about how evil socialism is and then chooses someone you consider a socialist to be your running mate. That would do more to convince republicans that Crenshaw has somehow been compromised than it would to encourage democrats to vote for him. --- For your Azuarc* .* At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza <cite>MoogleKupo141 posted [p:949139780] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote><quote> In 8 years, what is actually stopping Dan Crenshaw from running with AOC as his VP? Is there a rule against it?</quote> the thing stopping him is that theyre completely ideologically incompatible you cant complain about how evil socialism is and then chooses someone you consider a socialist to be your running mate. That would do more to convince republicans that Crenshaw has somehow been compromised than it would to encourage democrats to vote for him.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jakyl25 01/05/21 4:58:17 PM #42:	UltimaterializerX posted... We need cross-party tickets anyway with Prez/VP willing to disagree on major policy if anyone wants to heal the divide. The divide has very little to do with policy though --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:949140138] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>UltimaterializerX posted...</cite> <quote>We need cross-party tickets anyway with Prez/VP willing to disagree on major policy if anyone wants to heal the divide.</quote> The divide has very little to do with policy though</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
xp1337 01/05/21 5:35:43 PM #43:	the prophet of georgia has returned https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html hail needle-senpai (Context for those who don't know, NYT's forecast needle was prescient in GA. Early on Election Night Nov 3 when things were looking good for Trump as Florida results were coming in strong for him and pundits thought it was looking like a repeat of 2016, it showed Biden favored in Georgia) Probably our best resource once results start coming in. Needle expects to activate after 7 Eastern. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:949141428] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>the prophet of georgia has returned https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html hail needle-senpai (Context for those who don't know, NYT's forecast needle was prescient in GA. Early on Election Night Nov 3 when things were looking good for Trump as Florida results were coming in strong for him and pundits thought it was looking like a repeat of 2016, it showed Biden favored in Georgia) Probably our best resource once results start coming in. Needle expects to activate after 7 Eastern. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Suprak the Stud 01/05/21 5:39:05 PM #44:	I think Crenshaw and AOC hate each other, and Trump and Bernie also hate each other. To get an actual cross party ticket, you'd need people that at the very least get along and could pretend to support each other. I dunno who that would be, but Crenshaw and AOC ain't it for sure. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:949141562] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>I think Crenshaw and AOC hate each other, and Trump and Bernie also hate each other. To get an actual cross party ticket, you'd need people that at the very least get along and could pretend to support each other. I dunno who that would be, but Crenshaw and AOC ain't it for sure. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons 01/05/21 5:44:31 PM #45:	Don't think AOC is gonna sign on to a ticket with the guy who was just found to have smeared a veteran who was sexually assaulted! --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:949141772] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Don't think AOC is gonna sign on to a ticket with the guy who was just found to have smeared a veteran who was sexually assaulted! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
xp1337 01/05/21 5:53:06 PM #46:	Also turnout today seems to be \()/ https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346576543783522304 DeKalb county (Atlanta suburb) has surpassed Nov 3 Election Day turnout. On one hand, that's obviously crazy high turnout... on the other, that's a heavily Dem area (Went 83-16 Biden) so you can read it either way. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:949142105] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Also turnout today seems to be \()/ https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346576543783522304 DeKalb county (Atlanta suburb) has surpassed Nov 3 Election Day turnout. On one hand, that's obviously crazy high turnout... on the other, that's a heavily Dem area (Went 83-16 Biden) so you can read it either way. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
UshiromiyaEva 01/05/21 6:03:59 PM #47:	It's a lot of hearsay, but it seems to be high in the cities and nearby counties and low in the more rural areas. So, like....everyrthing is theoretically lining up. <cite>UshiromiyaEva posted [p:949142544] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>It's a lot of hearsay, but it seems to be high in the cities and nearby counties and low in the more rural areas. So, like....everyrthing is theoretically lining up. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Suprak the Stud 01/05/21 6:04:38 PM #48:	Suburbs have been trending democratic though. Where you want it to be low is rural areas, I'd think? --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:949142568] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Suburbs have been trending democratic though. Where you want it to be low is rural areas, I'd think? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Suprak the Stud 01/05/21 6:04:50 PM #49:	Do polls close in one hour or two? --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:949142578] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>Do polls close in one hour or two? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
CasanovaZelos 01/05/21 6:06:01 PM #50:	1 hour --- My top 100 games (with write-ups): https://foolfantastic.com/top-100-video-games-project/ <cite>CasanovaZelos posted [p:949142621] in Dems \| 1.9... [t:79219630]...</cite> <quote>1 hour </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Board 8 > Dems | 1.91 mil | 50.42% | Reps | 1.82 mil | 48.37% [Today's GA Senate Runoff!] (+) Yeah! (+)

Board 8 > Dems | 1.91 mil | 50.42% | Reps | 1.82 mil | 48.37% [Today's GA Senate Runoff!]