Board 8 > College Football Ladder Contest 2018: Week 7

(+) Yeah! (+)

I need to stop picking West Coast games. That's two weeks in a row that I've started out 2 for 2 and lost it on the final pick.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 3: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 4: First! Pick a winless team to get their first win or an undefeated team to suffer their first loss. If you are predicting a favorite to win, they must also cover the spread (a push is sufficient). You may also select "none" if you think that every game between two winless or two undefeated teams will result in the favorite winning but failing to cover the spread and that no other teams will get their first win or suffer their first loss. Also, for this level, only the team that you are predicting will lose must be from the FBS.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one team and move the line 7 points to your disadvantage.

Level 5:
turbopuns2
jcgamer107

Level 4:
KCF0107
Paratroopa1
ShatteredElysium

Level 3:
kevwaffles
5tarscream
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 2:
Jakyl25

Level 1:
baubeta
Eddv
SmartMuffin

Marquee Games:

Georgia (-7.5) @ LSU (O/U 50.5)
Washington (-3) @ Oregon (O/U 57.5)
Michigan State (+13.5) @ Penn State (O/U 54)
Texas A&M (-2) @ South Carolina (O/U 52.5)
Wisconsin (+7.5) @ Michigan (O/U 47.5)

Damnit, so close to being able to let my own judgment decide the fifth game. Michigan State literally got 1 point total between both polls, but that was enough to make it the fifth game. (I probably would've gone with another SEC match, because that's the only conference that's largely above the tangled web of everyone beating up on each other, though I have to admit that TCU-Texas Tech also looks intriguing--TCU actually is getting votes and my loss-based criteria suggest that Tech really still ought to be.)

Final note: with LSU and Kentucky losing last week, the American now has the most undefeated teams of any conference. Fortuitously enough, despite all being in the same division, none of them meet up in October, either--each of the final three weeks of the season will have two of the three playing each other. Can you feel the hype?
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I hate picking all road teams, but on the other hand, the adjustment that's made for home/road means you can usually get some clear favorites down to being roughly pick'em's.

Level 3:
South Florida -1 @ Tulsa
Florida -1 @ Vanderbilt
Central Florida +1.5 @ Memphis

Nine other teams were considered. Six of them were road teams as well. Come on, Sunshine State, don't fail me now!
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tag
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EDIT:

Level 3:
Florida -1 @ Vanderbilt
Central Florida +1.5 @ Memphis
Virginia Tech (PK) @ North Carolina

So, yeah, apparently I should've looked a little closer at USF (and at Tulsa--they managed to stay within 1 score of Texas at Texas!) before jumping to conclusions. I seriously considered sticking with the Bulls anyway for metagaming purposes, but I'd rather have a pick that I can be comfortable in and if I end up helping the people on Level 4, so be it. Besides, a lot of people don't pick until Saturday morning anyway and that's a Friday game.
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The more that I am stuck on this level, the more upset I am that I didn't go with my second or third options three weeks ago. I don't like any of my winless options. I don't really know much about Colorado, but I do know that I will never put my trust into USC. I am tempted to go with LSU over Georgia or Memphis over UCF, but those are my second and third options. I was already burned picking against them before, but...

Level 4:
Iowa St. hands West Virginia their first loss
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Level 5
Michigan (-14.5) vs Wisconsin

all in for Michigan baby c'mon let's goooo
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Bump
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L3
Washington
Alabama
West Virginia
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With Cincinnati, NC State, Clemson, and UTEP all on byes, I decided to run through a list of possibilities from least to most likely for level 4:

11. Alabama loses vs Missouri

lol

10. OSU loses vs Minnesota

Minnesota's kind of plucky but they're not going to beat Ohio State in Columbus.

9. ND loses vs Pitt

Not an absolute gimme but unlikely ND has trouble.

8. UCF loses @ Memphis

This game has been wild in the past but UCF should be fine.

7. SJSU wins vs Army

Army is getting way too many points on the spread here (-15!) and I would absolutely take a pleaser on San Jose State if I could, whose run defense is surprisingly competent and could potentially stop Army. Don't sleep on this.

6. Nebraska wins @ Northwestern

Could happen. Nebraska isn't nearly as bad as their record and Northwestern is vulnerable.

5. WVU loses @ ISU

I still don't really get the hype over West Virginia and it feels like they're due to fall from the unbeatens. Dunno if it happens here. It could.

4. Georgia loses @ LSU

Your guess is as good as mine what happens in these big time SEC games. Georgia should probably not be a 7.5 point favorite. Taking the spread on LSU seems straightforward. Maybe it's a trap, I don't know.

3. UCLA wins @ Cal

If UCLA were at home they should be favored imo. Like Nebraska, UCLA isn't as bad as their record (they have had the hardest SOS in the country) and they're showing signs of life. I would probably take UCLA in an upset here.

2. USF loses @ Tulsa

USF is the worst unbeaten in the country. Tulsa is probably the best 1-4 team in the country although I didn't compare every single one of them. I would be absolutely salivating over taking a pleaser on Tulsa to win straight-up here.

1. Colorado loses @ USC

I mean, USC is favored by 7 points. This just seems like it's going to happen.

I'll go ahead and take the boring route:

Level 4:

USC gives Colorado their first loss

but boy, if Colorado hangs on and Tulsa pulls off that upset, I'll feel stupid

Holy shit, I was lamenting not sticking with Tulsa and then they fucking BLEW it in the 4th

Texas A&M (-9) @ South Carolina

L3
Texas A&M (+4) @ South Carolina
Auburn (-8.5) vs Tennesee
GT (+4.5) vs Duke

I really wanna take LSU but I feel like that would be cursing them for sure.
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Man I never realized how incredibly shitty Jake Browning is.
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I could possibly go 0 for 3 on the damn teaser level.
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On holiday and forgot about this. Let's see what games I have to pick from at this time...

Level 4
Colorado lose to USC

It didn't even register with me when I saw the stat that Memphis was 3-0 ATS with 3 outright wins in their last three home games against ranked teams that that trend would screw over one of my picks if it continued.

They're now 4-0 against the spread...with three outright wins, UCF rallying from a big early deficit to win by a single point.
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A&M screws me for the 2nd consecutive week.

At least based on results, my list looks pretty good. (3, 4, and 5 were correct, 6-11 were not - 2 was incorrect but only because of an insane comeback.) Let's see if USC knocks Colorado from the unbeatens.

although man was I wrong about SJSU having a chance at stopping Army. boy did they ever not do that.

Michigan did it go blue baybeeeeeeeee
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And made it. Glad that I was out most of the day, though, because none of my 3 wins came easy; only Florida covered the actual line and that's because they scored 34 of the final 40 points of the game.
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Status of my level 4 list: "generally looks like he knows what he's talking about aside from a bizarre trust in san jose state to not be garbage"

Para if the Ducks go on to win the conference (and possibly make the playoffs) I am holding you PERSONALLY responsible
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Paratroopa1 posted...

At least based on results, my list looks pretty good. (3, 4, and 5 were correct, 6-11 were not - 2 was incorrect but only because of an insane comeback.) Let's see if USC knocks Colorado from the unbeatens.

Yeah that looks pretty good minus SJSU and UCF, but UCF really should have lost. I wish they had so we wouldn't have to keep pretending they're a Top 25 team.
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Without even looking at the spread I'm going to be taking the Cougs over the Ducks in the pleaser next week.

jcgamer107 posted...

Paratroopa1 posted...

At least based on results, my list looks pretty good. (3, 4, and 5 were correct, 6-11 were not - 2 was incorrect but only because of an insane comeback.) Let's see if USC knocks Colorado from the unbeatens.

Yeah that looks pretty good minus SJSU and UCF, but UCF really should have lost. I wish they had so we wouldn't have to keep pretending they're a Top 25 team.

UCF haven't been given nearly enough respect ranking wise until recently. When teams like Notre Dame or Clemson edge past people and are massively underwhelming it's fine but when UCF do it they are a bad team?

UCF probably aren't as good this season as last season but they are for sure a top 25 team. Actually they are probably fairly ranked right now. Only weirdness ranking wise is Oklahoma jumping them on a bye week but 10th for UCF is still pretty fair

They have zero chance of making the playoffs though even if they stay unbeaten. They basically need multiple 2 loss champions which looks very unlikely and hasn't happened for quite a lot of years now. Also need Notre Dame to lose too

And looking at the top end of the rankings I can see plenty of teams with blemishes on their records

Texas have a loss to Maryland and barely scraped past Baylor, Kansas State, Tulsa

Michigan almost lost to Northwestern

Notre Dame struggle against Vanderbilt, Ball State and Pittsburgh

Should all 3 be above UCF? Yeah probably due to the wins on the schedule but this game is UCFs first real bad game. UCF have also made a habit of playing badly first half and then doing what is needed second half. So I think they tend to play down to their opposition

The narrative that UCF had an ugly win is stupid. They played a decent team on the road and won. There is no such thing as an ugly road win unless your opponent is really bad, which Memphis isn't.

Clemson is the one that to me is massively overrated. Close calls against A&M (which is their strongest opponent now, and likely will be at the end of the year too) and Syracuse. Their only convincing wins have been against literal nobodies.
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