Current Events > Nate Silver urges Biden: Reassure voters or 'stand down'

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Ideally yes but Trump's narrative push of rigged elections has almost assuredly driven some of his base away from voting.

It's the double edged sword to pushing stolen/rigged election claims. Some will just get discouraged and not vote "because its rigged anyways"

And it isn't that they're not fervent in their support. They'd gladly overthrow the government to install him, but rigged election narrative can be a negative drain on would be voters

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Says who? Trimp's base gets fired up by wearing merchandise, and plastering stupid fucking bumper stickers all over their cars, and flying ridiculous flags in their yards.etc.
You wanna know what Biden's base does? They show up to vote. Just like they did last time, and just like they will this time. We don't need to do all that other ridiculous shit because we're not a brainwashed cult. We just show up when it matters, and get on with our day.

His concern is noted.

Ronaldo posted...

The defense squad when Biden receives even a little pushback is wild.

*casts a meaningful glance at all the trumper chuds still carrying water for Trump in spite of 91 indictments that there is significant evidence in support of*

ItsNotA2Mer posted...

Says who? Trimp's base gets fired up by wearing merchandise, and plastering stupid fucking bumper stickers all over their cars, and flying ridiculous flags in their yards.etc.
You wanna know what Biden's base does? They show up to vote. Just like they did last time, and just like they will this time. We don't need to do all that other ridiculous shit because we're not a brainwashed cult. We just show up when it matters, and get on with our day.

Except Republicans are more consistent at showing up to vote than Democrats. Historically and currently.

ItsNotA2Mer posted...

Says who? Trimp's base gets fired up by wearing merchandise, and plastering stupid fucking bumper stickers all over their cars, and flying ridiculous flags in their yards.etc.
You wanna know what Biden's base does? They show up to vote. Just like they did last time, and just like they will this time. We don't need to do all that other ridiculous shit because we're not a brainwashed cult. We just show up when it matters, and get on with our day.

Remember when chuds were so sure Biden couldn't have won 2020 because "Trump had all these rallies with so many people at them!"?

Yeah. Gonna be the same thing here. Trump might even lose by a bigger margin this time, since all he's done in the intervening four years is bitch about 2020 and get indicted for crimes he did the last time he was in office.

Bottom line: the man is doing nothing to endear himself to anyone other than his fanatic, brainwashed, racist, bigoted moron base. And he lost by 8 million last time, before you factor in the continuation of covid deaths (that are majority republican) and Republicans that have soured on voting if Trump is the nominee, and things aren't looking good.

radical_rhino posted...

Except Republicans are more consistent at showing up to vote than Democrats. Historically and currently.

The 2020 election, (and the more recent special elections), tell a much different story.

radical_rhino posted...

Except Republicans are more consistent at showing up to vote than Democrats. Historically and currently.

Still not sure what that has to do with the claim that Trumps base being fired up is a bad thing for Biden. Most politicians dont have a cultish following. People just show up and vote for them, as they did for Biden in 2020.

mybbqrules posted...

Republicans that have soured on voting if Trump is the nominee,

I don't really think you can taking people that vote for republicans at face value
they will absolutely fall in line and vote down-ballot R when it gets down to crunch time

FearlessMango posted...

I don't really think you can taking people that vote for republicans at face value
they will absolutely fall in line and vote down-ballot R when it gets down to crunch time

I have a similar concern about Republicans who have soured on Trump. That without a proper GOTV movement, they might just stay home. Especially if the down ballot candidate's main appeal is "vouched for by Trump" which today might be growing to be more of a motivator for the opposition.

2024 isn't 2020 and 2020 wasn't 2016.

Trump holds sway. He'll still drive votes, but I think his sway has slipped in the past 4 years and if special elections are any indication, a Trump endorsement isn't enough to get people out to vote. Obviously him being on the ballot changes the dynamic, but if people aren't enthusiastic for who he's vouching for then they're probably not as enthusiastic (as they used to be) to go vote for him.

Not all Trump votes are MAGA types. Many are, yes, but there are still Bush era, hell even just tea party era, Republicans out there that are tired of the Trump circus dominating the GOP.

dems right now kind of feel like they are zombie walking into a meat grinder. Doesnt even feel like an election year

ultimate_reaver posted...

dems right now kind of feel like they are zombie walking into a meat grinder. Doesnt even feel like an election year

Because it's feb. Feb 2020, before covid shut everything down, there were still 8 people in the dem debates, and they had 2 or 3 debates that month and in March.

The fact is, it's not even election season, it's primary season where the top 2 contenders have been known for 4 years.

Silver got called out for his shitty polling, pulled a "no, the kids are wrong", and bow is embracing the right because he got his feelings hurt.

What a downfall.

ClayGuida posted...

Because it's feb. Feb 2020, before covid shut everything down, there were still 8 people in the dem debates, and they had 2 or 3 debates that month and in March.

The fact is, it's not even election season, it's primary season where the top 2 contenders have been known for 4 years.

Yeah, not every election season is going to feel like 2012, 2016, or 2020 even.

This is the first time in a long time we've actually had this kind of situation where everybody knew who'd be the candidates as soon as the last election ended.

Ronaldo posted...

The defense squad when Biden receives even a little pushback is wild.

That's because over 90% of the time, the "pushback" is either outright Republican ratfuckery or the so-called "liberal media" signal-boosting said Republican ratfuckery.

CyborgSage00x0 posted...

Silver got called out for his shitty polling, pulled a "no, the kids are wrong", and bow is embracing the right because he got his feelings hurt.

What a downfall.

He also had his company dropped by ABC because his methods worked for a couple elections and then absolutely tanked 4 consecutive election cycles.

ClayGuida posted...

He also had his company dropped by ABC because his methods worked for a couple elections and then absolutely tanked 4 consecutive election cycles.

In way, it's bot his fault, since polling is more dead and chaotic than it has ever been. But rather than embracing that, he died on that hill.

CyborgSage00x0 posted...

In way, it's bot his fault, since polling is more dead and chaotic than it has ever been. But rather than embracing that, he died on that hill.

On the other hand, what is his fault is that after 2016, he adjusted his model to be less data-driven, and has continued to do so after each following election that he predicted wrong. It's gotten to the point that he's not really doing analysis at all, he's just doing "vibes".