Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1373

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah Vivi's rise basically ate Squall's strength for lunch. A lot of 2nd tier (strength-wise) FF characters have had it rough for a while and the lack of 1v1 contests just covered up the steady decline.

I'm not even convinced Remake/Rebirth will do much to staunch the bleeding, since so much of the competition around the those characters are Nintendo, and we're in the middle of a Nintendo boom.

Of course I'm talking in theoretical contests we assuredly aren't getting.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3281-division-3-round-2-vincent-falco-scorpion-gordon

I'd guess Scorpion finishes second now and probably makes Vincent look a little bad in the process.

At this point, Gordon probably takes last too.

Gordon's fall from grace is sad. He worked so hard to shake the stigma of GFNW. Guess that's what 14 (now 19) years without a game will do.

LeonhartFour posted...

this just reminds me what a bummer it was that Sonic got announced for Brawl mid-contest in 2007 because otherwise Squall beats him and now he'll never get that Noble Nine win that Auron got over Sonic just a year later

Take solace. You still correctly picked Squall > Auron.

It's just further evidence that my belief in that take is correct.

Heck, he might have even beaten Mario in 2013 if Vivi doesn't get in the way...!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3282-division-4-round-2-crono-amaterasu-l-block-ryu-sf

Theoretically L-Block should be the weakest one here now, but I wonder if multiways favor it because there's a certain chunk of the site who will vote for it no matter what. I'd be curious to see if Ryu could bounce back from how bad he looked in 2018 with how well received SF6 has been and take second place now.

I believe this was when save_us.rat became a thing.

Combined with the next match's result, yes

For one match, Pikachu got to be the hero

Yeah, I think Ammy still takes last here, but it might be more competitive this time around.

Joke characters would probably still look better in 4 ways

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7357-division-8-final-sephiroth-vs-ryu
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7348-division-8-semifinal-sephiroth-vs-amaterasu

Should we be talking about Ryu vs L-block or Amaterasu over them both!?

I'd be surprised if Ammy could actually beat Ryu straight up regardless of what those results say

We just had a continent poll today, which I'm surprised no one has mentioned yet:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9352-

A lot has changed in the 10 years since our previous continent poll. Before today's poll, I always suspected the Europe vote had increased during the past 10 years with a decline in North America, and it seems like I was correct. I'll post trend charts once this poll ends.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3283-division-4-round-2-alucard-falcon-pikachu-arthas

Pikachu defeating Alucard despite Falcon leaching was definitely a sign of things to come. Block beware.

LusterSoldier posted...

We just had a continent poll today, which I'm surprised no one has mentioned yet:

because still only you care about this!

_SecretSquirrel posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3283-division-4-round-2-alucard-falcon-pikachu-arthas

Pikachu defeating Alucard despite Falcon leaching was definitely a sign of things to come. Block beware.

I wonder if Alucard wins this match now with his newfound Netflix strength.

Poll updates and trend charts for yesterday's continent poll:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C3ICrSky2a0fQKBYw6Alhi9Z4Kk1FPXflRvonTo_bKM/pub?gid=2

In the overall results, the biggest change from 2013 was Europe doing about 4% better, with North America doing almost 4% worse. South America has also gone up since 2013 as well, while Asia has dropped off slightly and Oceania losing more than 0.5% in the past 10 years.

Asia and Oceania largely have similar trends, faring best during the night vote and dropping off in the morning. Both options fare worst during the ASV. Asia has a less severe drop off in the morning and holds up better during the ASV compared to Oceania, which can be explained by Asia covering a larger number of time zones than Oceania.

Europe fares worst during the board vote and SNV, best during the FNV, slightly below average during the morning. Europe also has a poor ASV. Compared to the previous 3 continent polls, Europe has seen a significant change to its trends. For comparison, these are Europe's trends from all 4 continent polls that I have tracked poll updates for:

Time | 2010 | 2012 | 2013 | 2023
EBV | 2.44% | 2.25% | 3.21% | 7.93%
PHV | 1.98% | 2.99% | 3.25% | 12.01%
FNV | 18.30% | 20.50% | 23.31% | 37.16%
BSV | 41.24% | 40.93% | 38.90% | 20.41%
DSV | 15.78% | 18.08% | 16.65% | 20.86%
ASV | 11.75% | 13.47% | 13.14% | 15.60%
SNV | 2.16% | 3.36% | 4.73% | 7.69%
Final | 15.51% | 17.48% | 17.89% | 22.00%

Although Europe finished around 4% higher in 2023 compared to 2013, it failed to properly translate into a stronger overnight thrashing of North America. Europe's best hours in the 2023 poll failed to exceed 50%, when it had previously achieved a 50%+ hour in both 2012 and 2013. Europe historically did best during the BSV time period, with the FNV as its second best time period. The 2023 poll was a departure from the previous polls where Europe significantly beefed up its terrible board vote and Power Hour (though still below average) and also performing slightly better during the DSV, ASV, and SNV. The biggest change for Europe was a huge drop off in its performance during the BSV, but it still finished about 4% higher than the 2013 poll because it got better in every other time period instead.

In the hourly trends, Europe's best hours happened from 2:00 AM to 6:00 AM during the 2023 poll. In the polls from 2010/2012/2013, Europe's best hours were from 4:00 AM to 8:00 AM. This difference could be explained by the 2023 poll being a weekday poll, so the European voters are waking up earlier than usual. The 2010/2012/2013 polls were all on the weekend instead. Another oddity with Europe in the hourly trends is a huge lull in its early morning performance, before surging again during the early afternoon hours.

North America performs best during the board vote and SNV, and still has an above average Power Hour. It performs worst during the FNV, and has an above average morning vote and ASV. This poll being on a weekday has a huge effect on North America's trends compared to the previous weekend polls. On the weekend, North America holds up far better with the FNV, but does worst during the BSV. A weekday poll favors a greatly improved BSV for North America at the expense of a weaker FNV.

South America performs worst during the board vote and FNV, and best during the BSV, ASV, and SNV. South America's trends do not appear to be significantly affected by whether the poll was on the weekend or weekday like what was seen for Europe and North America.

LeonhartFour posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3283-division-4-round-2-alucard-falcon-pikachu-arthas

Pikachu defeating Alucard despite Falcon leaching was definitely a sign of things to come. Block beware.

I wonder if Alucard wins this match now with his newfound Netflix strength.

I think Pikachu is still a bit out of Alucard's reach, even with the Falcon leaching. Pikachu traded wins with Mega Man. Alucard spent an entire day trailing behind Bowser. I don't see that flipping even with the LFF.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3284-division-5-round-2-cube-tidus-mega-man-nero

I'd guess this result mostly holds. Mega Man might get a higher percentage of the overall vote, but that's about it. I know Portal isn't what it used to be, but WCC probably benefits enough from the format to get past Tidus.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3285-division-5-round-2-ryu-h-zero-snake-vivi

I miss the days when Snake was this dominant. Also, I remember it was a pretty big surprise that Vivi nearly beat Zero, but I imagine he'd be the favorite now.

Hmm...would he?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7351-division-2-final-zero-vs-pikachu

That year, Pikachu=MM=Crono (essentially).

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7375-loser-bracket-round-2-crono-vs-bowser
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7350-division-1-final-ganondorf-vs-vivi

Depends on how you think Ganondorf vs. Bowser goes.

407 votes there kept me from winning an account bet with BT in the next round. I was betting on Snake and he was betting on Mega Man, but we previously agreed we'd cancel if Zero made the match.

Dammit Zero. Instead of that, BT stuck around like another fourteen years and the Weighted Companion Cube pulled an upset on the Blue Bomber. Did not like that timeline.

Pikachu/Yoshi was 55/45, and I have a hard time seeing Ganondorf lose to Yoshi.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3286-division-6-round-2-sora-fox-squall-yoshi

Perhaps the most outright hilarious result of the contest, back in the days when Sora was the guy who embarrassed other characters instead of routinely embarrassing himself.

This was also the match pic featuring Smiling Squall, in which Allen mirrored and changed the background of the picture submitted to him just so he could use this terrible picture, which was the real crime of his administration.

Never forgive, never forget.

Squall is just smiling because he got a terrible pic and still beat everyone's ass.

The glory days

Smiling Squall has always just looked like Squall to me. >_>

TeamRocketElite posted...

Smiling Squall has always just looked like Squall to me. >_>

The one used in his match with Auron was fine

The one used in this match was designed to make him look as derpy as possible, and I'm pretty sure Zen would admit that was his intention!

(Yes, I haven't forgotten that it was Zen who made that pic)

Smiling Squall was perfect. Silly enough to be memorable, but not so silly that it flipped the match result.

Well, I won't pretend it was the worst match pic that contest because the later rounds in 2008 had some doozies that I'll be glad to revisit when we get to them!

TeamRocketElite posted...

Smiling Squall has always just looked like Squall to me. >_>

Yup. No difference between smiling Squall and non-smiling Squall, match pic wise.

Using Leon from KH would definitely hurt recognizability more.

Eh, he had the KH Squall sprite from Chain of Memories against Auron, and he did just fine.

Unless you're arguing he should've beaten Auron by even more, which I'm all for.

Leonhart4 posted...

Well, I won't pretend it was the worst match pic that contest because the later rounds in 2008 had some doozies that I'll be glad to revisit when we get to them!

It's not even the worst picture of the round, TBH. Scorpion's picture could be any dude in a skull mask.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3287-division-6-round-2-cloud-midna-mewtwo-pac-man

Cloud dominates. Mewtwo picks up the scraps. Not really benefitting a Halloween match.

How far do you think Midna goes if she survives that - as far as Mewtwo?

That match should have convinced everyone that Mewtwo was a fraud ten years later but alas

2013 Mewtwo was hard to get past.

Leonhart4 posted...

That match should have convinced everyone that Mewtwo was a fraud ten years later but alas

Yeah but I'm sure you remember what happens next

KamikazePotato posted...

2013 Mewtwo was hard to get past.

And also obviously fraudulent...!

Hey, I had Tifa in my bracket! I also don't blame people for Pokefear, whether it's based on fraudulent results or otherwise. That lightning always strikes somewhere in the bracket.

The lightning usually strikes with the electric rat

But I never saw any real reason to fear Mewtwo based on literally every other performance we saw from him outside of 2013, which had sketchy results all over the place

I guess it depended on what people thought FFVII would be worth in 2018. He did fine on Ganondorf in 2010. I mean, I picked Tifa without thinking twice (but also picked her against Seph later).

But he hadn't really had bad performances before either. I think this Midna match in question is the only one he looks bad in.

I think perhaps the most misleading match he had was confortably beating Pikachu in 2013.

Once Mewtwo beats Sephiroth, you can throw all his results out. Pokemon in general was silly that contest, but they were also getting rallied almost every match.

I mean it's true obviously, but I don't really blame people for thinking the Mewtwo vs. Pikachu one was legit.

I guess, but we already saw Charizard perform over his head in 2010 and then come back down to earth in subsequent contests.

Yeah but that was somewhat explainable by HGSS release on Bowser match and then clear bandwagon.

I mean, Mewtwo was a fraud, you were completely right, but I don't blame people for putting him on Pikachu (who was not a fraud) levels or at least close to when they predicted the 2018 bracket.

Mewtwo was also pretty clearly bandwagoning by the time he got to Pikachu.

I just had seen enough of Mewtwo in 2007, 2008, and 2010 to safely discard anything I saw from him in 2013.

Leonhart4 posted...

Mewtwo was also pretty clearly bandwagoning by the time he got to Pikachu.

The idea would be that the bandwagon died when he was eliminated. Pikachu had a solid contest himself after all.

Also Mewtwo looked decent enough in the other contests. Depending on how people thought Ganondorf vs. Tifa would go on top of a predicted overall Pokemon (and maybe Smash) boost. I see where it gets close.

This is not meant to take anything away from you having been correct, on the contrary it makes it more impressive probably.

Also Mewtwo was pretty good in 2018 all things considered, Tifa was a very strong.