Current Events > Ukraine War Topic Part VIII

(+) Yeah! (+)

texanfan27 posted...

still surprised Putin hasnt been put down yet by insiders.

Russia has a long and storied history of taking down a tyrant just to end up with someone worse.

Prigozjin has released an 11 minutes message on Telegram about what happened.
Basically he says that he did it because of the injustice of Wagner, it was never about any coup d'tat.
He just wanted to save Wagner.
He said that Wagner soldier was attacked by Russian helicopters and missiles, with 30ish deaths.
The attack was seen as Russia trying to destroy the group, so they decided to march towards Moscow.
He mentions those contracts that Russia demands them to sign, which they didnt, and that those would destroy Wagner the first July if they would sign them.
The march showed serious security problems in Russia, so they turned back to prevent a bloodbath.
He says that Lukasjenko contacted him and wanted to find a solution that would keep Wagner alive.

...weren't there reports that he had weapons stockpiled for months for this scenario?
Just can't buy his explanation.

Requiem posted...

...weren't there reports that he had weapons stockpiled for months for this scenario?
Just can't buy his explanation.

Weapon stockpiling is always a good decision, especially if Russia is your supplier. Their breakup was certainly a long time in the making.

As for his explanation, I'm sure he's leaving out some important details but overall I buy it. I don't know much about him personally but he doesn't seem like someone who wants the throne. He's been bitching and moaning about command since the war started and it definitely seems like he just wanted a way out of the war for him and his guys. He just needed an excuse. It was a helluva gamble and the only real question is how he thought he was going to get away with it.

Requiem posted...

...weren't there reports that he had weapons stockpiled for months for this scenario?
Just can't buy his explanation.

He also said back then that 2000 soldiers died, so he is clearly making it look better than what it was.

i think if prigozhin would have had enough institutional support he likely would have marched on moscow. for that to work he would have needed people high up in the government and military though. he probably had some tentative allies that saw how real it got and decided they didn't wanna go through with it.

i am sure there are people treacherous and ambitious enough to think they could depose putin and cease power. the kremlin had the gray cardinal who crafted the propaganda and basically invented the modern russian domestic political situation. there may be someone machiavellian in the background pulling strings.

that could all be a fantasy i invented from reading too many books and playing legend of heroes games too much but it is interesting to think about regardless lol

as long as russia is having major domestic issues that will always be good for ukraine so hopefully more shit happens to destabilize the russian state even more

https://twitter.com/ArturRehi/status/1673410169345040384

Humble_Novice posted...

https://twitter.com/ArturRehi/status/1673410169345040384

According to Peskov, it will determine the fate of Russia.

If Lukashenko and Putin are planning concurrent/consecutive addresses, this can't be good.
Rough guesses, in decreasing order of likelyhood:

Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus, Wagner absorbed into Russian army
Belarus is merging with Russia, "voluntarily" but totally not
Russia is offering peace with Ukraine, at current lines
Russia is getting the fuck out of Ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/26/ukrainian-troops-reportedly-reclaim-territory-in-kherson-province

Questionmarktarius posted...

If Lukashenko and Putin are planning concurrent/consecutive addresses, this can't be good.
Rough guesses, in decreasing order of likelyhood:

Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus, Wagner absorbed into Russian army
Belarus is merging with Russia, "voluntarily" but totally not
Russia is offering peace with Ukraine, at current lines
Russia is getting the fuck out of Ukraine

At some point hes going to realize that there is no way Putin lets him live. That and that a disturbingly large amount of Russian troops are mercenaries. His mercenaries.

There's a reason Lukashenko's family fled to Turkey over the weekend. Shit's goin' down.

There's a brutal video out there of 47th trying to get out of a mine field... tough to watch as these are casualties and you see numerous medics.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14jmqqs/ukrainian_troops_get_caught_in_a_minefield_in/

Humble_Novice posted...

Karma for the Russian invaders: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14imewq/the_russians_dropped_a_prohibited_asphyxiating/

https://i.imgur.com/eVPejlX.gif

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14jdoud/ukraine_uses_cardboard_kamikaze_drones/

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1673509067640434689

Prigozhin sent out a press release explaining his reasoning for the march on Rostov and Moscow, and his reasoning for backing down before reaching Moscow. He also states that he did everything as peacefully as he could and that the intended goal was never to overthrow the government, but to protest against the efforts of the Russian MoD to dissolve the Wagner Group and show the MoD what an organized force is able to achieve.

Humble_Novice posted...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14jdoud/ukraine_uses_cardboard_kamikaze_drones/

.labo is getting out of hand

Slayer_22 posted...

Yeah, I was gonna say this. Best case scenario, they move some dudes to a Belarus and nothing happens, while basically looking like fools. Worst case scenario...well, Ukraine advanced pretty damn far in a single day so I guess this was the worst case scenario.

There was no benefit to this.

There was benefit. It made Ukraine and Lukashenko look good.

https://time.com/6290143/belarus-lukashenko-russia-wagner-group/
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/26/alexander-lukashenko-is-the-clearest-beneficiary-of-wagners-mutiny
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/6/27/what-is-belarus-gaining-from-helping-quell-wagner

Although Lukashenkos family still fled to Turkey.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2022/05/03/why-turkey-could-become-the-next-haven-for-russian-oligarchs-fleeing-sanctions/


Chev427BB posted...

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1673509067640434689

Prigozhin sent out a press release explaining his reasoning for the march on Rostov and Moscow, and his reasoning for backing down before reaching Moscow. He also states that he did everything as peacefully as he could and that the intended goal was never to overthrow the government, but to protest against the efforts of the Russian MoD to dissolve the Wagner Group and show the MoD what an organized force is able to achieve.

Interesting considering that Wagner was implied to be under the impression that Putin would be deposed.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672511322083270659

Theres a few theories/hypotheses that could explain this:

1. Prigozhin is lying about his intentions/aim/goal
2. Prigozhin changed his mind after things didnt go exactly as whatever his initial plan was.
3. Wagner wasnt told everything about whatever Prigozhins plans were.
4. The whole thing is a sham/false flag operation/part of a secret plan to nuke Kyiv and blame it on someone or something else. Hence Belarus getting a nuke, the same country that Prigozhin and Wagner are allegedly going to.
5. Prigozhin is banking/hoping that other people would pick up the pace and escalate it of the groundwork that Prigozhin laid of his protest.

Kibouno posted...

There was benefit. It made Ukraine and Lukashenko look good.

https://time.com/6290143/belarus-lukashenko-russia-wagner-group/
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/26/alexander-lukashenko-is-the-clearest-beneficiary-of-wagners-mutiny
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/6/27/what-is-belarus-gaining-from-helping-quell-wagner

Although Lukashenkos family still fled to Turkey.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2022/05/03/why-turkey-could-become-the-next-haven-for-russian-oligarchs-fleeing-sanctions/

Was more talking to Russia. They benefit nothing from this.

Slayer_22 posted...

Was more talking to Russia. They benefit nothing from this.

Putin may not have had a choice, other than wasting resources putting down an armed rebellion.

And that makes me think. If Russia didnt pull any troops off the frontline for Prigozhin's attempted putsch, does that mean they have no operational reserves? Is literally everything they have split between the Svatove line, Bakhmut, and Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk? That would certainly explain Ukraine's slow initial progress, but...I don't want to gove into the cope so easily.

Xenogears15 posted...

And that makes me think. If Russia didnt pull any troops off the frontline for Prigozhin's attempted putsch, does that mean they have no operational reserves?

That's been a general consensus for quite awhile, given Russia's recruiting and conscription desperation.

Xenogears15 posted...

Putin may not have had a choice, other than wasting resources putting down an armed rebellion.

And that makes me think. If Russia didnt pull any troops off the frontline for Prigozhin's attempted putsch, does that mean they have no operational reserves? Is literally everything they have split between the Svatove line, Bakhmut, and Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk? That would certainly explain Ukraine's slow initial progress, but...I don't want to gove into the cope so easily.

...you're not getting my point. There was no benefit to Russia to stage this.

That's it.

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1673511536671830016

Humble_Novice posted...

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1673511536671830016

Who didn't see that coming?
...well, apart from Russia.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1673598304398065670

what's so difficult for you all to understand about prigo? should it be put in game lingo to make more sense?

putin hired mercenaries. these mercs, like any merc, care about money, their loyalty is weak, and their leader has a trait of being loud and rebellious. as the war continued, their loyalty/confidence got so low they basically went berserk and putin lost control of their movements and actions. the same way any chaotic hired unit can go berserk and you can lose control of them.

so putin had choices. either wipe out the chaotic unit, which is not good because it's a really strong unit that can be useful. conform the unit into your main army, but that would take special actions (threaten, payment) to achieve, which they ultimately did. or let them roam free, which is bad because they can easily destroy all of your bases and possibly also the enemy's.

so putin played the special action card. got the leader of the chaotic unit to separate himself from the actual useful 50k units. and now you have this special unit to move around at your will, with some complications of (for now) being attached to this loud and rebellious figure.

it wasn't planned. it was a unit that went out of control. but what russia proved was that it had the methods (blackmail, threats, things that would be considered illegal in most other countries) to stop it before it got out of hand. if there was any benefit, it was for ukraine. but hopefully absorbing the unit into the army didn't do anything bad for the ukrainian side in the future.

https://twitter.com/MontyBoa99/status/1673605227931488256

so...

Questionmarktarius posted...

Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus, Wagner absorbed into Russian army

GuerrillaSoldier posted...

what's so difficult for you all to understand about prigo? should it be put in game lingo to make more sense?

putin hired mercenaries. these mercs, like any merc, care about money, their loyalty is weak, and their leader has a trait of being loud and rebellious. as the war continued, their loyalty/confidence got so low they basically went berserk and putin lost control of their movements and actions. the same way any chaotic hired unit can go berserk and you can lose control of them.

so putin had choices. either wipe out the chaotic unit, which is not good because it's a really strong unit that can be useful. conform the unit into your main army, but that would take special actions (threaten, payment) to achieve, which they ultimately did. or let them roam free, which is bad because they can easily destroy all of your bases and possibly also the enemy's.

so putin played the special action card. got the leader of the chaotic unit to separate himself from the actual useful 50k units. and now you have this special unit to move around at your will, with some complications of (for now) being attached to this loud and rebellious figure.

it wasn't planned. it was a unit that went out of control. but what russia proved was that it had the methods (blackmail, threats, things that would be considered illegal in most other countries) to stop it before it got out of hand. if there was any benefit, it was for ukraine. but hopefully absorbing the unit into the army didn't do anything bad for the ukrainian side in the future.

they aren't absorbing wagner into the army. they are offering contracts to the wagner troops that didn't participate in the insurrection, but that is the minority of them. the majority of wagner troops are following prigozhin to belarus.

https://www.politico.eu/article/yevegeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-russia-ukraine-war-mutiny/

andel posted...

they aren't absorbing wagner into the army. they are offering contracts to the wagner troops that didn't participate in the insurrection, but that is the minority of them. the majority of wagner troops are following prigozhin to belarus.

https://www.politico.eu/article/yevegeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-russia-ukraine-war-mutiny/

but part of the reason the little revolt happened is because they were going to force all of them to sign with the military, which basically destroys Wagner because a private army with no soldiers is nothing

andel posted...

they aren't absorbing wagner into the army. they are offering contracts to the wagner troops that didn't participate in the insurrection, but that is the minority of them. the majority of wagner troops are following prigozhin to belarus.

Shoigu's July 1 deadline does, in all but name.
Prigo is stuck in Belarus, while the Wagner guys basically become some sort of "independent contractors" for the Russian army.

Somehow, Shoigu comes out the winner in all of this, and may get a nasty case of elevator shaft soon.

thronedfire2 posted...

but part of the reason the little revolt happened is because they were going to force all of them to sign with the military, which basically destroys Wagner because a private army with no soldiers is nothing

yes but that is a concession wagner got when they agreed to end the insurrection.

Questionmarktarius posted...

Shoigu's July 1 deadline does, in all but name.
Prigo is stuck in Belarus, while the Wagner guys basically become some sort of "independent contractors" for the Russian army.

Somehow, Shoigu comes out the winner in all of this, and may get a nasty case of elevator shaft soon.

that isn't in effect anymore though. now wagner soldiers have the option of signing a contract with the russian armed forces but it seems like most are going to belarus with prigozhin.

andel posted...

that isn't in effect anymore though. now wagner soldiers have the option of signing a contract with the russian armed forces but it seems like most are going to belarus with prigozhin.

Depending on how loyal/grateful Prigozhin is to Lukashenko, Belarus may have a viable "out" in this war.

Humble_Novice posted...

https://twitter.com/MontyBoa99/status/1673605227931488256

Hell yeah!

If Ukraine can fight Russia in Zaporizhzia from both the east and west, that'd be a huge help. Didn't think a Kherson river crossing was even feasible.

Taking Crimea before Donbas is going to be a swift kick right in Russia's nutsack.

Or, I guess Crimea would be Ukraine's nutsack, soon after. I mean, just look at the thing.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/7/3/5/AAEhCpAAEm23.png

I'd love it if Ukraine took back all territory stolen by Russia, then Putin ends up getting ousted.

Why stop there? Go all the way to Georgia and Kazakhstan. Cut Russia off from the Black Sea entirely.

Questionmarktarius posted...

Taking Crimea before Donbas is going to be a swift kick right in Russia's nutsack.

Or, I guess Crimea would be Ukraine's nutsack, soon after. I mean, just look at the thing.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/7/3/5/AAEhCpAAEm23.png

I can't unsee that now. Thanks.

Questionmarktarius posted...

Shoigu's July 1 deadline does, in all but name.
Prigo is stuck in Belarus, while the Wagner guys basically become some sort of "independent contractors" for the Russian army.

Somehow, Shoigu comes out the winner in all of this, and may get a nasty case of elevator shaft soon.

You mean a case of tripping out a window. Has Russia even done a death by elevator shaft yet?

Takuya_Lee posted...

Has Russia even done a death by elevator shaft yet?

Oh, yeah. I don't think Russia even has elevators.

Questionmarktarius posted...

Oh, yeah. I don't think Russia even has elevators.

Your telling me they force those guys to walk up all those steps before they have to fall out of the window?

Questionmarktarius posted...

Oh, yeah. I don't think Russia even has elevators.

https://youtu.be/BiI5UuCiEoU

Elevators got banned after.

Just had the aftermath of the attack on Kramatorsk retweeted on my timeline.

I've seen worse retweets from this senseless War but still it's fucking outrageous that Russia continues to target innocent civilians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/27/deadly-russian-missile-strike-on-busy-pizza-restaurant-in-kramatorsk

RIA Pizza, the restaurant that was hit, is especially popular among foreign journalists who often use it as an office.

I doubt this is coincidence.

Chev427BB posted...

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1673509067640434689

Prigozhin sent out a press release explaining his reasoning for the march on Rostov and Moscow, and his reasoning for backing down before reaching Moscow. He also states that he did everything as peacefully as he could and that the intended goal was never to overthrow the government, but to protest against the efforts of the Russian MoD to dissolve the Wagner Group and show the MoD what an organized force is able to achieve.

Its statements like that has me convinced that Prigozhin is the Russian equivalent of Downfalls Fegelein.

Bet this is Prigozhins actual theme song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTSA_sWGM44

Questionmarktarius posted...

Taking Crimea before Donbas is going to be a swift kick right in Russia's nutsack.

Or, I guess Crimea would be Ukraine's nutsack, soon after. I mean, just look at the thing.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/7/3/5/AAEhCpAAEm23.png

lol

Questionmarktarius posted...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/27/deadly-russian-missile-strike-on-busy-pizza-restaurant-in-kramatorsk
I doubt this is coincidence.

That's horrible. But further pissing off the west by targeting journalists seems really stupid.

Humble_Novice posted...

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1673511536671830016

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/3/2/8/AAdZpjAAEnAI.jpg

Questionmarktarius posted...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/27/deadly-russian-missile-strike-on-busy-pizza-restaurant-in-kramatorsk
I doubt this is coincidence.

It was an accident! - Russia, probably

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Unsurprisingly considering the dynamic of how its going between them so far. That is one thing that didnt seem to change yet. They probably would keep going step by step.