Current Events > Ukraine War Topic Part VII

(+) Yeah! (+)

Regardless of the outcome it looks like this was just the kind of distraction the Ukrainians needed because theyve launched heavier offensive operations across the entire front, possibly including across the Dnipro in the Kherson region.

Could this be a trick to make Moscow calm down before a Zerg rush?

VFalcone posted...

At first people didn't believe it was a ruse. Then it started to not look like a ruse. Now it's starting to look like it actually was a ruse again.

Lmao...

More likely it's some combination of their families being hostages and someone involved in Moscow getting cold feet. Yesterday when shit was really getting started Russian troops occupied Wagner's Saint Petersburg Office/HQ. That office contains correspondence, personnel files, all the kind of shit that you would need to know who is in Wagner, where they live, who their families are, shit like that. It's all just speculation at this point but that's my guess.

It's unlikely that it was a ruse (anything is possible though) because this was still massively destabilizing/demoralizing for Russia's civilians in the region not to mention the confusion in military channels.

Humble_Novice posted...

Well, that's one way to keep an angry mercenary force under your thumb: https://twitter.com/AureliaCotta/status/1672669314040643586

ScazarMeltex posted...

More likely it's some combination of their families being hostages and someone involved in Moscow getting cold feet. Yesterday when shit was really getting started Russian troops occupied Wagner's Saint Petersburg Office/HQ. That office contains correspondence, personnel files, all the kind of shit that you would need to know who is in Wagner, where they live, who their families are, shit like that. It's all just speculation at this point but that's my guess.

It's unlikely that it was a ruse (anything is possible though) because this was still massively destabilizing/demoralizing for Russia's civilians in the region not to mention the confusion in military channels.

Honestly, if their families being in danger is enough to get them to stop then they were never gonna do shit from the beginning lol.

What did they expect to happen?

VFalcone posted...

Honestly, if their families being in danger is enough to get them to stop them they were never gonna do shit from the beginning lol.

What did they expect to happen?

this
They've been in the business for a quite a while now, employed by Russia.
They must have known Putin's response.

Did they hope that Putin would fold and flee to Venezuela without a fight?

Requiem posted...

Yeah... now with the twitter about fsb, just getting so confused.
Why would a guy in control of a large PMC within 300 miles of Moscow, after months of planning, decide to give up in less than 24 hours?

And this guy has been in the business for quite a while, so it's not like he's some random CoD player who suddenly lost nerves or didn't anticipate Putin's reactions.

Like I said, could be anything. Could be that some of their backers in Moscow got nailed or got cold feet. There is an explanation we just don't have the information we need to figure it out, we are just trying to figure out what the puzzle is supposed to be with only 15% of the pieces. It could take weeks or months for everything to shake out.

https://twitter.com/020644/status/1672671392205004804

VFalcone posted...

Honestly, if their families being in danger is enough to get them to stop then they were never gonna do shit from the beginning lol.

What did they expect to happen?

Oh I don't disagree. When you commit to a course of action like this you have to see it through. Granted that's easy for me to say, it's not my family that FSB is gonna put up against a wall.

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1672658854381858816

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

On the bright side, all this served as a distraction to help Ukraine in the long run.

This echoes my current take on the situation. The initial coup might be over but this whole thing has fucked up Russia's politics in ways that we've yet to see.
https://twitter.com/War_Takes/status/1672671375486484482

I give up.

This 4D chess between Putin and Prigoschin is simply above my mind, I can't comprehend this at all.

Even my confusion is confused by now.

Putin will absolutely not forgive and forget this. Everyone in Wagner will be executed or driven out.

I expected this all to fizzle out anticlimactically, but I didn't expect it to happen quite that quickly.

https://twitter.com/SouthAsiaIndex/status/1672670782848385027

So Prigo planned this for months and didn't account for the families of his men being targeted, when Russia all along has targeted families more than the enemy troops?
God he's fucking stupid, if true.

ScazarMeltex posted...

It's unlikely that it was a ruse (anything is possible though) because this was still massively destabilizing/demoralizing for Russia's civilians in the region not to mention the confusion in military channels.

Eh... Maybe that's the point?
If *I* was a brutal dictator clinging to power via fear, I'd stage at least one "false hope" event during my reign. Where someone either secretly in cahoots with me, or some hapless moron I'm secretly providing arms and (not-so-loyal-after-all) troops to, rises up against me and gives the people hope, only to be swiftly and pathetically defeated and the (actual) conspirators viciously executed.
Then when an actual noble and capable revolutionary comes along wanting to depose me, the people will be jaded and apathetic about it, and suspect it's another trick to dupe them into their own early graves.
Just saying.

Even if Prigo fails here this is still extremely damaging for Russia.

Trying to figure out exactly what Lukasjenko could have said that changed this.
They must have known that Putin would go after their families, so why didnt Wagner empty their HQ on information if it was planned so long?
Because it was an acceptable loss?
What if they were promised full amnesty, on everything they have done, a new HQ, homes and their families safely moved to Belarus or Turkey, with a promise to never be extracted to Russia?

https://twitter.com/OLDUKIEDUDE/status/1672675410725965824

I assume the money that the FSB took was meant to facilitate the coup

of course you can buy off and threaten mercenaries. they're mercenaries. hire them to fight somewhere else for more money, and they're going to go there. put guns to their families chins and they'll absolutely run there with whatever flag you want them to hold.

As I said elsewhere, Prigo basically won't be able to return to Russia after this if he gets to Africa. After this and with how paranoid Putin is his head is barely on his shoulders.

A new defense minister will be...concerning to say the least. Depends on who gets promoted.

Lmao Prigo going to have a window or radium related accident in the next couple years. What a fucking moron.

Humble_Novice posted...

https://twitter.com/SouthAsiaIndex/status/1672670782848385027

The elite PMC that is the best in Russia and really needs to be taken seriously... defeated basically instantly.

Clap* clap*. Putin played them. Checkmate

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672672550005145600

Chev427BB posted...

Regardless of the outcome it looks like this was just the kind of distraction the Ukrainians needed because theyve launched heavier offensive operations across the entire front, possibly including across the Dnipro in the Kherson region.

Yup.

-Russian Morale somehow is now even deeper in the shitter.
-They lost several aircraft and likely dozens+ soldiers
-Citizens having the war spill even further into Russia itself through infighting will erode support.

And as you said it gave Ukraine an oppurtunity for a big push.

Foppe posted...

Trying to figure out exactly what Lukasjenko could have said that changed this.

He held up a phone with the KGB beating his family on the other end of the line I bet.

More good news for Ukraine: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14hrh5h/ukrainian_forces_take_control_of_several/

Unsuprised_Pika posted...

-They lost several aircraft and likely dozens+ soldiers

i heard about one helicopter and possibly a transport plane
was there actual firefights?

Block_that_Kick posted...

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672672550005145600

lol we would make so much money off of that political circus. the trials and everything for decades later, too. we would bank on it so hard.

Humble_Novice posted...

https://twitter.com/OLDUKIEDUDE/status/1672675410725965824

If Wagner is out of Ukraine that is tens of thousands of less bodies for Ukraine to deal with.

Unsuprised_Pika posted...

Yup.

-Russian Morale somehow is now even deeper in the shitter.
-They lost several aircraft and likely dozens+ soldiers
-Citizens having the war spill even further into Russia itself through infighting will erode support.

And as you said it gave Ukraine an oppurtunity for a big push.

Don't forgot Prigo hijacking Russian television and telling them that the war is a lie and that they are lying about the casualties.

Like how the fuck does that get resolved?

So how's Putin going to take care of this?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672681893710495748

Unsuprised_Pika posted...

If Wagner is out of Ukraine that is tens of thousands of less bodies for Ukraine to deal with.

Also the most competent and intact fighting force left on the Russian side.

Shadow_Don posted...

Don't forgot Prigo hijacking Russian television and telling them that the war is a lie and that they are lying about the casualties.

Like how the fuck does that get resolved?

"Uhhhhh....... Shoigu did it. He threw himself out a window so everything is good now ."

Humble_Novice posted...

So how's Putin going to take care of this?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672681893710495748

Better question is what are all of these protesters gonna do when they find out that Wagner has immediately abandoned the cause?

Shadow_Don posted...

Don't forgot Prigo hijacking Russian television and telling them that the war is a lie and that they are lying about the casualties.

Like how the fuck does that get resolved?

There's also all the individual soldiers and detachments across their journey that openly sided with Wagner, who are now effectively exposed as traitors to the official Russian military. No matter how things go down with wagner, I fully expect there to be a purge within the military in the coming weeks as they identify and eliminate anyone who even considered the possibility of the coup being real.

And all those oligarchs that took a plane straight to Turkey as soon as things were looking bad? They should probably get a ground floor apartment, or the very least board up their windows.

VFalcone posted...

Better question is what are all of these protesters gonna do when they find out that Wagner has immediately abandoned the cause?

Hopefully this

https://youtu.be/EzWNBmjyv7Y

Shadow_Don posted...

Don't forgot Prigo hijacking Russian television and telling them that the war is a lie and that they are lying about the casualties.

Like how the fuck does that get resolved?

Part of that video rant was him saying Shoigu has been lying to Putin.

Note: this is basically the plot of that famous Hitler angry rant from the Downfall (Der Untergang) movie. The military leaders had been lying to Hitler the entire time about the war effort and it finally boiled up to a point where Hitler tried to issue orders to a unit that didn't exist and the commander had to break the news to him.

VFalcone posted...

Better question is what are all of these protesters gonna do when they find out that Wagner has immediately abandoned the cause?

They better hide their faces.

Just like the FBI after 1/6 those people will individually be found by FSB. And probably end up in Siberia.

Even though it was 100% predictable it is still quite bizarre seeing conservative influencers and politicians call this a CIA coup to distract us from hunter biden.

If a hostile alien force invaded our planet they would blame it on the CIA and hunter biden.

Shadow_Don posted...

quite bizarre seeing conservative influencers and politicians call this a CIA coup to distract us from hunter biden.

did people even care that much about the Hunter Biden shit to begin with? There are actual real events taking place in the world and they think we care about tax shit and weapons charges for a person who isn't even a politician?

Gobstoppers12 posted...

did people even care that much about the Hunter Biden shit to begin with? There are actual real events taking place in the world and they think we care about tax shit and weapons charges for a person who isn't even a politician?

I think the latest conspiracy is that an IRS whistleblower (not the same one that they lost, this is a new one) claims that they IRS slow-rolled the investigation into Hunter and that the submarine and the coup are meant to distract from this story. Which hilariously contradicts their stance that the IRS should not be getting more funding and agents.

Yeah, at the end of the day this whole incident has pretty much further weakened Russia and made Putin look even more incompetent.

this is amazing for ukraine and shows how weak putin is, especially if he cut a deal with prigozhin that he doesn't have to face justice for an armed rebellion lmao. putins days are numbered and it wouldn't surprise me at all if someone in his government becomes the hatchet man in the next few months

ukraine gains massively from this. where are the morons that said supporting ukraine was the bad move? this is the biggest geopolitical win for the us by far since the soviet union imploded. biden has proven he is a master of foreign policy and nato and american influence is greater than it has even been in eastern europe.