Board 8 > Marvel Snap Topic 11: Shuri You Can't Be Serious

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lopen posted...

It's only easily tested if you have all the data and know what you're actually testing.

Which is the case for the people who actually tested this, and definitely not the case for the anecdotal people

wtf is Stegron

Hes usually a Spider-Man villain. He worked with Curt Connors and when he saw what accidentally happened to turn Connors into the Lizard, he did it on purpose to himself with stegosaurus DNA.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/5/8/7/AAGQPmAAEanT.jpg Free cube

Had a guy Thanos emote snap on me and play Doc Ock on Bar With No Name. That lost me that location, but I had the right locked for an easy win and turn 6 I drew Giganto and won the left lane so I Thano emoted back

foolm0r0n posted...

Which is the case for the people who actually tested this, and definitely not the case for the anecdotal people

The people who have tested this either

1. Are players who think they have all the data but are ignorant of what they need to test.
2. Devs who don't want the playerbase to know the matchmaking isn't pure and are probably lying because why wouldn't they.

WazzupGenius00 posted...

Hes usually a Spider-Man villain. He worked with Curt Connors and when he saw what accidentally happened to turn Connors into the Lizard, he did it on purpose to himself with stegosaurus DNA.

Burying the lede here of somehow being in possession of stegosaurus DNA in the first place

I think I'd be very tempted to buy Stegron if I didn't know the High Evolutionary is coming in about a month.

I could see some surprise wins with Zabu + Stegron and Absorbing Man or something.

I finally unpinned Negasonic Teenage Warhead hoping itd let me pin Jeff, and it didnt

Ooooh I have Master Mold pinned but maybe Negasonic is a better idea. I can wait until she's 3000 tokens.

I'm almost a third of the way to Galactus.

Okay this thread on Reddit is actually pretty impressive:

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarvelSnap/comments/12yf8st/just_played_against_this_card_when_did_it_get/

Jakyl25 posted...

Burying the lede here of somehow being in possession of stegosaurus DNA in the first place

He got it from the Savage Land, that place is overflowing with dinosaurs

Just bought Kang so now I have all 3 Big Bads.

Time to save up for High Evolutionary and/or Living Tribunal I suppose. Do we have any official confirmation on their Big Bad status?

Living Tribunal isn't exactly a villain but I could see him and High Evolutionary going into the permanent series 5 list.

Devs said that the decision to make a card permanently series 5 isn't really based on anything except maybe card complexity.

Tribunal isn't complex but it's definitely a build around card.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/0/1/0/AAAqtIAAEat6.jpg

A good mystery variant? Is that legal?

Thinking about Jeff but I'm not sure he really enables any decks and he probably drops to series 4 pretty quick

Might just buy Galactus. There are interesting takes I can do on it I think. But I'm not sure it'd be super fun. Maybe Thanos would be more fun.

I think Thanos is a lot more fun than Galactus personally. You can do a lot of stuff with the stones: zoo, destroy, Lockjaw, bounce, Dino ongoing.

There's like 2 different Galactus decks and they're both easily countered or you win 1 or 2 cubes.

Got Knull as my latest card.

Just got Skull. I want to slot him in but 4 cost is just too much for an unreliable tech card.

oh no not a location that buffs patriot

Lopen posted...

The people who have tested this either

1. Are players who think they have all the data but are ignorant of what they need to test.
2. Devs who don't want the playerbase to know the matchmaking isn't pure and are probably lying because why wouldn't they.

This theory has exactly 0 data points. So can it even be called a theory?

foolm0r0n posted...

This theory has exactly 0 data points. So can it even be called a theory?

It actually has a ton of data points but people who think they're intelligent and don't understand how the scientific method actually starts are discarding them all as anecdote.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/0/9/2/AANZX9AAEavM.jpg this felt dirty

I cant even tell what happened there?

Gambit killed everyone

Gambit killed everyone but due to hazmat, scorpion, beast and absorbing man I prevented them from being able to actually gain any score when they placed cards.

Lopen posted...

It actually has a ton of data points but people who think they're intelligent and don't understand how the scientific method actually starts are discarding them all as anecdote.

Give 1

If you mean the overall theory, literally everyone who has noticed matched cards change significantly when they change decks. Really smart and intelligent people are putting their fingers in their ears and saying lalala anecdote but I don't think it would be noticed on quite as large a scale if it wasn't actually a thing that is happening.

If you mean
"Players who don't have all the data are doing attempted statistical analysis" plenty of YouTubers who don't actually have all the data such as RegisKillbin have attempted to determine if it was happening by just tallying his games. Probably tons of highly intelligent players like yourself have in internet forum arguments as well.

"Devs are probably lying" while we don't have direct evidence they have lied to us yet we have clear motive for them to, no real conclusive way for them to be caught, other game devs who have lied about the mechanics of their game, and some poor form moves such as nerfing Shuri right when she drops to pool 3 that doesn't give me a ton of faith that this dev team is some sort of paragon of morality that would never lie to their playerbase.

Yeah I was looking for actual examples like RegisKillbin, so that's 1, thanks. But what did he miss?

He is not a dev so he doesn't actually know how matchmaking works thus doesn't know what to test and isn't running a thorough study without that.

Look up sampling bias for a start if youre still confused. Inherently because he's swapping between decks he uses and not random decks his data isn't valuable any moreso than players who are just making observations.

The fallacy is that observations are meaningless and trying to fu fu handwave them all as anecdote. Observations not matching expected behavior are literally the first step in starting any proper study. Hand waving people for not having enough data (they literally cannot have enough data for a proper study anyway as they don't have access to it) is just a masturbatory "look how smart I am I know what an anecdote is" and not productive at all. What we should be doing is prodding the developers for more data (if we care-- I personally don't as I see more benefits than drawbacks to deck based matchmaking anyway) not belittling people who are noticing it.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/3/5/9/AAAOt_AAEazX.jpg

Play a Shuri deck

Thats also play a Jubilee deck imo

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Gambit killed everyone but due to hazmat, scorpion, beast and absorbing man I prevented them from being able to actually gain any score when they placed cards.

Yeah it looked like they got Scorpion/Hazmatd but I was confused at the Hazmat still in your hand, lol.

Like if you want the non-tinfoil theory about deck matchmaking the "Collector Level" element of the matchmaking calculation is weighing in the collector level you obtained the cards in your deck rather than overall collector level.

In which case yeah you can trust the devs (if they're not lazy and are tracking the right data) to have properly tested it

Personally I see enough benefits to intentionally rigging up the matchmaking that I assume it's working as intended, but SOMETHING is definitely going on with it because there are way too many people noticing it for it to just be "oh no that's just how the randomness in the matchmaking is"

Lopen posted...

Observations not matching expected behavior is literally the first step in starting any proper study.

The reason why I don't scream about this is because all the observations are fully explained by the frequency illusion. There's no reason to investigate anything else.

Your position is the one that needs to prove that observations don't match expectations. You can't do that since by your own logic you don't know the matchmaking formula. That's why 95% of your words are pure speculation. So where is the scientific method?

btw you absolutely do not need to know the formula in order to prove that decks affect matchmaking. You can totally do it with proper testing and enough samples. Sounds like that YouTuber wasn't rigorous enough.

Lopen posted...

What we should be doing is prodding the developers for more data

How would fabricated data from lying devs help?

foolm0r0n posted...

How would fabricated data from lying devs help?

Data is hard to fake. They haven't produced any data just said it doesn't factor in.

Also if they gave us hard data we could establish a set to compare what we are observing to.

Right now just writing down what happens doesn't achieve a lot because our data set is low. We don't know the absolute frequency of a card like valkyrie actually is in matchmaking at where our collector level and mmr is so we can't be totally sure if 60% Valkyrie rate on a deck change is completely ridiculous or not.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/4/8/6/AAAqtIAAEa1W.jpg
Saw on reddit. Felt topical

I have never blamed the matchmaking for my rank for the record. My rank is honestly just always going to be in the 70-80 range until I get motivated to grind because that's about my natural movement in a season by doing dailies and the higher rewards aren't great anyway. I guess the 500 gold from 90 wouldn't be bad but if I hit 70 each season I'm pretty good
I just know that the decks you face change wildly and have things that situationally seem very convenient when you swap decks. Just observation of deck composition not even necessarily a good or bad thing for win rate.

Yeah I'm at 85 now and it's not the matchmaking holding me back anymore (it definitely did about a month ago). Now it's purely that you win ~50% of the time so climbing is just an incredible chore and slow progress.

Either they have done a lot better job of hiding bots or I am basically never running into them anymore either. And keeping idle against real players and farming cubes off bots is typically the easiest way to climb

I honestly blame my lack of cards and heavy-handedness on the snap for my rank. Both of which are self-inflected lol.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/5/9/5/AAe3nCAAEa3D.jpg

this is cool but also my trypophobia

Just leaving this here so I remember

When you copy real Mysterio with Sinister, he reveals as Fake Mysterio. Or rather he doesn't reveal at all and remains as Mysterio? rather than Illusion.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/8/9/8/AAAlMSAAEa7y.jpg

Ive had a weird influx of people using Giganto and playing him out naturally to the left side.

Lopen posted...

so we can't be totally sure if 60% Valkyrie rate on a deck change is completely ridiculous or not.

Yes you can. But no one cares enough to try. Either it's easily explained by frequency illusion, or the conspiracy is a comfortable blanket that maintains your enjoyment in the game.

I just saw Moon Girl & Devil Dinosaur show on Disney+ and I totally want to watch it because of this game. It also looks super good

foolm0r0n posted...

Either it's easily explained by frequency illusion

My whole point is if the base rate is sufficiently low "Frequency Illusion" is the warm complacency blanket here that people who don't understand statistics but love thinking they understand human psychology flock to.

If people are noticing things that are supposedly completely unlikely statistically often enough it becomes implausible to that it's a matter of Frequency illusion because even with biases you wouldn't have enough appearances of the rare event for people to notice it at that clip.

Cubes don't actually matter at Infinite, right?