Current Events > Stock Market General #48

(+) Yeah! (+)

TaylorHeinicke posted...

the government will literally never admit it because it's too politically damaging to do so.

we've been in one since Q2 2022 by definition, but nobody would admit it

Technically no, by definition we were in a recession in Q1-Q2, when GDP was negative for back to back quarters. Since then GDP has been positive.

And literally no one cares about the technical definition, only the colloquial definition which is just a bad run for the economy. Businesses are still doing well, unemployment is near all-time lows, lowest its been in 50+ years. Wage inflation is high, although real wages are still negative. Fed injected alot of money into the economy but those savings are only slowly going down. All of the drivers of inflation are still there. Ive been telling you guys for over 6 months now its a matter of time. Its just going to happen slower than what most people are saying. Interest rates starting rising in early 2022 and even then they were ultra low for most of 2022, as they were cranking it up. You don't even see the effects of these for years. When businesses have to refinance or obtain new capital, now they are fucked. We STILL have not seen the effect of that. All we've seen is the stock market try to price that in in q3-4 2022 and clearly they undershot. People think inflation will continue to go down and all is good and well. Nope, all the drivers of inflation still exist. And on top of that, high inflation = people spend more now than later => increased inflation. 0 inflation = no incentive to spend now. Thats why 2% is the target. Its a slipper slope on either side. These layoffs that were occuring q3-4 and now q1 are simply businesses trying to shed wait in anticipation of a bad recession.

It will come, most likely 2024-25. Something is going to crash, just a matter of time.

Recession, downturn, depression, etc are when regular people lose their jobs and have to sell low so that the rich can buy low. The real downturn hasn't happened yet.

1337toothbrush posted...

Recession, downturn, depression, etc are when regular people lose their jobs and have to sell low so that the rich can buy low. The real downturn hasn't happened yet.

Good point.

I wish they could have just let it all flush down in March 2020, but noooooooo, we just had to inject trillions worth of QE and get us in this stupid mess.

Maybe this will be a good week.

https://stocks.apple.com/A_aso0uvhRPmo5bmrYerdhw

we on Amazon soon guys. Lost money today for some reason.

Bump

Help

Up to 92 shares of Ford

lets gooooo

fuckers got rid of their shareholder discount on new vehicles though. Was considering a new Explorer with that deal

Probably going to put in a big order of Amazon next week.

Can't say I feel great about buying stocks with the 10Y peeking above 4% and the 2Y approaching 5.

Good week for me with CIVI and GUSH

AngelsNAirwav3s posted...

Good week for me with CIVI

Yes indeed

Dat_Cracka_Jax posted...

Yes indeed

Just sucks with tax season now having to pay taxes on all the fat dividends CIVI paid all year lol

AngelsNAirwav3s posted...

Just sucks with tax season now having to pay taxes on all the fat dividends CIVI paid all year lol

I am unsure about that. Is that ONLY if you don't reinvest ? Or it probably doesn't matter anyways, you'll get taxed, right ?

C6Driver posted...

I am unsure about that. Is that ONLY if you don't reinvest ? Or it probably doesn't matter anyways, you'll get taxed, right ?

If it is dividends from stocks you still get taxed on them, you should get a 1099-DIV from your broker w/ all your dividends. Looks like it is taxed less than ordinary income though, 15% or 20% (depending on your income)

When tf will I get all the money back that I've lost over the last 2 years?

I'm getting adds for "my first bear market"

Woooo

are we winning yet?

treasury yields going bonkers again today. market pricing in 50 bps rate hike.

I shorted Walgreens today... hopefully that works out. It's just 1 share, but I'm experimenting with shorting.

Got my profit sharing for last year. Came to 7500 after taxes. Ill probably just keep it in cash for now.

I get my bonus on Friday

Omg i lost 300 this week i so sad

Banks are getting rekt today might be the start of further trouble

Looks like things are getting worse, maybe just sell at a loss and buy back later so just keep on holding?

Dont sell at a loss just keep holding

fan357 posted...

Dont sell at a loss just keep holding

This

Hodl

Yeah I'm not selling shit because I'm not trying to time the market. I'll continue my pattern of buying

Just gonna keep loading up on AMZN.

I got some reinvested Ford dividends so now my share count is fractional and thats bugging the shit out of me lol

99.77 shares

so just buy .23 more and you're good to go.

It wont let me buy fractional shares T_T

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/4/4/5/AAb05zAAEAs1.png

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-is-shut-down-by-regulators-fdic-to-protect-insured-deposits.html

Trumpo posted...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-is-shut-down-by-regulators-fdic-to-protect-insured-deposits.html

Well there was a financial news story today, slightly unrelated, but equally concerning, a majority if banks lost today.

Be greedy when others are fearful

How can we capitalize on this bank nonsense?

fan357 posted...

How can we capitalize on this bank nonsense?

Continue to DCA into total stock index funds

Everything is pointing towards a crash the federal reserve has to direct us to a recession to bring down inflation. This economy is not sustainable in its current form and the housing market is reflecting that with debt going into default. I'd only be buying stock in companies that do alright in recessions like Coke cola. Otherwise I'd stay clear of major buying right now until the end of the month at least.

Gotta love days like today

*wakes up, sees awful news, and UVXY is up like 10%+*

.

*wait an hour, TQQQ is up 5%+ and all is green*

lol, yea but this was big news today....1 bank failed, leading to another bank failing and we didn't know a bailout was coming until sunday. But now they we know more details, theres nothing to be worried about.

I thought "second largest bank failure in US history" makes it sound bad but you could also say like "20th largest bank currently in the US has failed".

And its reasons for failing simply come down to dumb decisions. Nothing SVB did was corrupt or shady, just simply stupid decisions. Same with Signature bank although SVB failure probably did play a role.

Either way, its probably not going to lead to a string of bank runs since they are getting bailed out. And the bailouts are not going to use taxpayor money. So its not a major loss in the overall financial system.

If the bailouts didn't happen, then there would be risk of a string of bank runs leading to multiple bank failures and that could be the straw that breaks this economies bank.

fan357 posted...

How can we capitalize on this bank nonsense?

Don't try.

apocalyptic_4 posted...

Otherwise I'd stay clear of major buying right now until the end of the [year] at least.

ftfy

Cocytus posted...

Don't try.

but

It almost feels like this bank was a sacrifice to slow down rate hikes

Just gonna keep buying Ford

Moass is not here