Current Events > What did Dems do to have such a high possibility of losing the House?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Mia_K97 posted...

I've been to a trump rally before and I didn't see any of this. This is fake news and a blatantly offensive. How is this not moddable?

Im not Republican.

Will_VIIII posted...

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/09/944385798/poll-just-a-quarter-of-republicans-accept-election-outcome

Yup, so my default stance is that if you're a 2020 Trump voter, you're likely an extremely stupid individual.

Note that this covers everything from "Lord Emperor Trump FOREVER!!!!" to "facebook told me there were 'irregularities' in Arizona"

Mia_K97 posted...

Easy to say this in an echochamber

You don't understand numbers huh

Questionmarktarius posted...

Note that this covers everything from "Lord Emperor Trump FOREVER!!!!" to "facebook told me there were 'irregularities' in Arizona"

There's no reason to differentiate them when they all come to the same conclusion that it was illegitimate

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

And he never will

Please stop feeding Mia, people. Dude literally made a topic whining about CE having a left leaning bias after he got modded for telling people to cry more over GOP policies stripping certain individuals of their rights.

Now admits hes been to Trump rallies. Says that Nazis supporting the GOP is fake news.

if it quacks like a duck, etc.

Because this is our president:

https://youtu.be/H6uingtAWbk

Mia_K97 posted...

I've been to a trump rally before and I didn't see any of this. This is fake news and a blatantly offensive. How is this not moddable?

Neo Nazis and the KKK have been verified to be present at the Charlottesville rally, 1/6, the convoys, the recent DeSantis rally, and numerous MAGA rallies. They aren't asked to leave either so it's a reasonable to conclude that their presence is tolerated by the rest.

Will_VIIII posted...

There's no reason to differentiate them when they all come to the same conclusion that it was illegitimate

There's a bit of difference between fanatical and gullible.

The only people more stupid than conservative trolls on this board is everybody responding to them as though they're interested in debate or a fair-minded discussion.

BearlyWilling posted...

Please stop feeding Mia, people. Dude literally made a topic whining about CE having a left leaning bias after he got modded for telling people to cry more over GOP policies stripping certain individuals of their rights.

Now admits hes been to Trump rallies. Says that Nazis supporting the GOP is fake news.

if it quacks like a duck, etc.

Luckily I can reply all I want because it looks like he put me on ignore and not block lmao

Questionmarktarius posted...

There's a bit of difference between fanatical and gullible.

Maybe, but both fall under the category of being stupid

Will_VIIII posted...

Maybe, but both fall under the category of being stupid

fair

I will say, regardless of how things shake out, having been plugged in to left-leaning/Democratic grassroots groups, if the Dems don't win next week, it won't be due to lack of trying.

They're definitely engaged and fighting for every vote, I'll say that for them lol

It's important to keep in mind how the seats allocated heavily favor Republicans.

Like Wyoming and California having equal power in the Senate is absolutely absurd in this day and age.

Will_VIIII posted...

Like Wyoming and California having equal power in the Senate is absolutely absurd in this day and age.

the 17th amendment was a mistake

This topic gets made once a week or once every two weeks. The answer is always that due to redistricting democrats lost seats and republicans are gaining seats

It's going to be extremely telling in states where a Democrat governor wins but the seats and courts end up with Republicans.

I'm a conservative, and so I am not invested in the success of the Democratic Party in any respect. That said, as a political scientist, I think that I can provide a somewhat unbiased analysis of the situation and why it is almost certain that the Democrats will lose the House this year, and probably the Senate as well.

Historically, the party of the President is typically punished in midterm elections. This is not always due to any success or lack of success on the President's part, but has more to do with the fact that the base of the party in opposition is a lot more motivated to turn out than is the more complacent base of the party in power. The midterm election year being dreadful for the President's party is a bipartisan truth, applying with equal force against Bill Clinton in 1994 and (to a lesser extent) 1998, George W. Bush in 2006 (2002 is one of the few exceptions to this trend in modern political history, and is explainable with 9/11 generating more support for Bush's Presidency in its earlier years), Barack Obama in 2010 and 2014, and Donald Trump in 2018.

Another factor to consider is the fact that the House of Representatives, unlike the Senate, has short two year terms for office, and every last individual member is up for election or re-election at the same time. This results in a situation in which there are many, many "safe" districts that are either overwhelmingly Republican or overwhelmingly Democratic and not contested at all, but also a significant amount of swing districts that tend to go to more moderate candidates on either side of the isle. Moderate candidates are probably good for the country in many ways, but the problem they have is that they do not really generate robust support from the base in favor of their reelection. On the other hand, the opposition party is no less incentivized to turn out and vote against the moderate than they are the doctrinaire, for their vote is less about the individual candidate and is more about opposing the President whom they detest. This is a bad situation for the Democrats in this election because, in 2018, they picked up a lot of seats with more moderate candidates and these same seats are likely to transition to the GOP for the above reasons.

A third factor to consider is the nature of the primary system, or the procedure by which nominees are selected to run for office. Many of these aforementioned "moderate" candidates faced primary challenges from more extreme, true believers in their own party. While opposition to moderates is often based upon real principle and a general detestation that people have for squishes who fail to stand up for anything, the problem it entails is that the voters of either party are given information that depresses their enthusiasm for the moderate incumbent, and since the primary challenges usually fail in their goal of replacing the moderate incumbent with a doctrinaire, the net effect is to depress the enthusiasm of the party regulars for their candidate. Obviously, primaries impact both parties in this same way in every election. But the GOP has an important advantage right now that the Dems do not. Think of the case of the Pennsylvania Senate race. Dr. Oz won his primary very narrowly, and the election was extremely polarized and a sizable contingent of Republican voters were unhappy with him as a candidate. And yet, we have seen in recent weeks the polls tighten in the Pennsylvania Senate race as Republican voters are "coming home" to their candidate, less out of any real love for Dr. Oz and more because they want so badly to stick it to Biden. The Democrats retain the disadvantage to party unity caused by primaries but, in this election at least, do not have the same incentives that Republicans have to turn out and stick with candidates they do not like very much.

Lastly, it should be remembered that, as much as the liberal Democratic base adores Barack Obama, his Presidency saw incredible defeats for the Democrats in the different state legislatures, and this has continued to resonate and effect political elections even into our own day. Democrats haven't held more state legislatures than the Republicans since before the 2010 election hollowed out their power in massive ways. The state legislature elections do not garner the same attention that federal races do for obvious reasons, but the state legislatures draw congressional districts and thus have a great effect on federal elections. With them having been in the hands of Republicans for over a decade, the districts have been skewed somewhat (or "gerrymandered") in favor of the GOP. Though the Democrats might cry out about how "unfair" this is, it needs to be remembered that throughout their history they as much as the Republicans have engaged in gerrymandering to entrench their political power when they have held the state legislatures. They'd be stupid not to do so, and we should expect that for all the complaints about gerrymandering on their side today, they would engage in it immediately should the political situation in the states change tomorrow.

There are probably more reasons that the Democrats will lose as well, but these four factors are, I think, the most decisive. I would also say that the Democrats are marred right now by the association of their party with very extreme social liberalism, but that's more disputable and we will probably have to wait for the election to see if this holds true. The red flags are there, however, since in the blue state of Virginia a Republican candidate won the Governorship only a year ago by focusing on critical race theory in education and the gender constructivism promoted by the Democrats. These views, the Democrats will say, are correct and moral, but it needs to be remembered that even if this were so, they may not be winning issues with the majority of the nation's electorate, especially the voters outside of California and New England. Many of the crucial swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, have huge numbers of white working class voters who like the welfare state, but who are more traditional on social issues and who are usually religious, and if the Democrats want to pitch their party to them by focusing on abortion, transgender rights, gun control, etc. then they are in for an uphill battle. Ohio and Iowa went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 by huge majorities when the focus was on health care, pro-labor policies, and economic liberalism, but it is increasingly difficult to imagine them voting for Democrats at the federal level right now on account of how focused the Democratic Party is on social issues that are less palatable to white working class, swing voters.

SolaFide posted...

Ohio and Iowa went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 by huge majorities when the focus was on health care, pro-labor policies, and economic liberalism, but it is increasingly difficult to imagine them voting for Democrats at the federal level right now on account of how focused the Democratic Party is on social issues that are less palatable to white working class, swing voters.

Oh how I wish voters were able to differentiate between politicians and their policies, and what non politicians do. I mean, they do know how to differentiate, but only for Republicans.
For democrats, what a random person on Twitter says is equivalent to the policies actually pushed by democratic officials in power.

no matter what the pendulum always swings back the other way, a republican could win in 2024 but he won't have a republican house coming in.

Will_VIIII posted...

It's going to be extremely telling in states where a Democrat governor wins but the seats and courts end up with Republicans.

Getting the ammo ready ahead of time. Smart.

tremain07 posted...

no matter what the pendulum always swings back the other way, a republican could win in 2024 but he won't have a republican house coming in.

He probably will.

He won't lose it until 2026

It's not almost certain the Dems will lose the House. In fact, there's a decent chance they keep it. It has come out in the past week the polls can't be trusted. Plus early voting numbers are high. High turnout tends to favor Dems.

IMO Roe v Wade being overturned created a wildcard situation.

I'd have guessed the gop winning the house due to the DDIQs falling for the gas price and inflation nonsense otherwise

Will_VIIII posted...

IMO Roe v Wade being overturned created a wildcard situation.

Probably a wash, between "hell yeah" and "oh hell no"

Will_VIIII posted...

IMO Roe v Wade being overturned created a wildcard situation.

I dunno, abortion doesn't seem something people care about compared to seeing their money being drained away by gas an high food prices

tremain07 posted...

I dunno, abortion doesn't seem something people care about compared to seeing their money being drained away by gas an high food prices

Something like 70% of voters support abortion rights to some capacity. Now, that does include the people who are okay with it until the 6 week mark.

"Dems are bad at stopping Republicans, therefore I'm going to vote Republican"

Sadly, this is how many Americans think

Southernfatman posted...

Nothing. Too many Americans are just gullible idiots.

And practically all social media is owned by right-wing nutjobs.

Voted for Biden in 2020, sit down trolls. God forbid I don't choose to live in an echochamber.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Quit trying to bait me into a moderation and I went to A Trump Rally, not I GO to Trump Rallies

Mia_K97 posted...

Quit trying to bait me into a moderation and I went to A Trump Rally, not I GO to Trump Rallies

Don't you have to pay to get into Trump rallies?

Why go to a Trump rally if you don't support Trump?
Why go to a BLM rally if you don't support BLM?
Why go to a nazi rally if you don't support nazis?

Mia_K97 posted...

Quit trying to bait me into a moderation and I went to A Trump Rally, not I GO to Trump Rallies

How is he baiting you when hes just asking you what "questionable groups" solely support Democrats?
Are you scared of answering it?

"You can't fix stupid" -old proverb.

AloneIBreak posted...

Eager to see how this topic goes. I bet most posts are just vapid everyone is stupid except me comments that dont really answer the question.

Many people being stupid is literally the answer to the question. Republicans annd their online troll helpers openly lie in ways that are easily checked or even just reasoned out with basic logic. People believe them. Other people are so stupid they see the economy is bad now, see the democrats are in power, and then stop thinking any further.

thats it. Thats the answer.

Doesn't this give Republicans an incentive to keep the prices high and inflation going for as long as possible, too? things are shit now, imagine them getting worse with Biden up for re-election in 2 years, the public aren't gonna hear "The Republicans actively blocked Biden's attempts to fight inflection" they're gonna hear "Biden's inflection caused you to lose your car, your job, your house, your lifestyle, do you really want 4 more years of him? Vote Republican!" We know corporations are looking forward to inflation because it gives them an excuse to jack up their prices even higher and line their pockets and especially to help get rid of Biden in 2024 after he came out threatening to tax them.

Bishop9800 posted...

How is he baiting you when hes just asking you what "questionable groups" solely support Democrats?
Are you scared of answering it?

Come on, @Mia_K97

pls respond :^)

BearlyWilling posted...

Come on, @Mia_K97

pls respond :^)

EDIT: Cant tag so Im guessing they ignored/blocked me. Not surprised the duck doesnt like being called out on its quacking.

Suspended

emblem-man posted...

Oh how I wish voters were able to differentiate between politicians and their policies, and what non politicians do. I mean, they do know how to differentiate, but only for Republicans.
For democrats, what a random person on Twitter says is equivalent to the policies actually pushed by democratic officials in power.

and Democrats are still pushing for all that stuff, republicans just refuse to even try to come to any agreements because they don't want Dems to get credit for anything good

People have been talking about the Dems losing for a year now. Its literally the media trying to manipulate. I wouldnt be surprised if the media spreading that is averting people from caring to vote.

I voted all blue. But I live in practically the bluest state, so my votes hardly will matter.