Current Events > Stock Market General #46

(+) Yeah! (+)

Long term philosophy is just buy and don't look back until a couple decades from now. And in that philosophy you really can't look at the day to day stock market.

If ur a fundamentalist then that works. IMO there is a very obvious recession coming and I think it will span all if '23. So I rather hold cash until late '23 then buy a bunch if VOO. Although technically that's timing the market which you shouldn't do. But I'm gonna do it anyways because I'm a new investor. 5 years from now if the same thing happens I'm not even gonna bat an eye and just keep everything where it's at.

littlebro07 posted...

Can't buy TSOI cause it's a penny stock and my money is still on hold til Thursday :(

GOD DAMN IT OF COURSE IT GOES UP 32% THE NEXT DAY

and it was up nearly 100% at one point earlier in the day

uwheuithaweuihafnfeawfefaf

Damn. Too late now

I don't think today's press conference should have any relevance to the market.

Interest rates have been increasing...all we've seen thus far is the markets reaction to it and not the actual effect of the interest rate....that will take many months to years.

So they can increase by 0 or 100 either way it wouldn't mean that the Outlook is good or bad, there just hasn't been enough time.

But tsoi is very intriguing to me

Down and down she goes!

lol Fidelity is trying to save me from myself
just sent me an email that they "... noticed youre invested in a passively-managed ETF and wanted to share a potential blind spot that he's discussed with some of his clients recently. We wanted to see if you would be interested in scheduling some time to discuss the blind spot and potential options for your portfolio in the upcoming weeks?"
I'm assuming they have concerns about my propensity to leverage myself in a time of great market volatility. They can't, uhhh, liquidate my positions, can they?

They are just trying to get more fees from you.

theAteam posted...

They are just trying to get more fees from you.

Oh, like they're trying to get me to switch over to an actively-managed portfolio by capitalizing on market stress? I hadn't thought of that but it makes sense, that's pretty sneaky if true.

My NLY and CIM holdings are getting wrecked right now

but ENZC is flying

Sqqq to 53, I bought 35 sold 45, rebought at 50, I'm gonna hodl for a while now

I dunno how to short so this is my poor man's short.

littlebro07 posted...

My NLY and CIM holdings are getting wrecked right now

but ENZC is flying

Nah, not really.

C6Driver posted...

Nah, not really.

To be fair it was up like 25 percent at open.

Dan_Haren- posted...

Sqqq to 53, I bought 35 sold 45, rebought at 50, I'm gonna hodl for a while now

I dunno how to short so this is my poor man's short.

It's 56 and booming

What happened to civi today?

NVM, all oil is down big

Damn it's a bloodbath today. Gonna DCA in some now

Help Im ded

I just bought in a bunch of GUSH today at $114, hopefully this is the bottom!

CIM lowered their quarterly dividend from $0.33 to $0.23

Of course they do this right after I buy 100 shares

Maybe I should just stick to throwing all my money at VTI/VOO lol

Brehs, now is not the time for stocks....

I'm hoping SMD goes back up.

I feel like I've gotten a hang of the general trend of the economy. I'm gonna keep studying this stuff in detail. Right now I'm reading about bonds and trying to master bond investing. Plan is eventually when I feel confident enough, I will start plotting out economic/geopolitical issues and how everything else will react to these scenarios. I feel like most retail investors try to think 3 steps ahead, they don't think 100 steps ahead like these hedge fund guys do. Thats why at the blink of an eye they can tell you what the likely outcome will be of any scenario, because they are constantly studying it. Of course I have a friend who is equally as interested as me.

Just browsing reddit and twitter, seems like alot of long-term investors think its a good time to buy because they think prices are down. They are actually more encouraged DCA'ing because they think every buy from here on out is a good one.

It just makes absolutely no sense to me, it just sounds completely idiotic. This isn't some kind of correction. The fed has literally told you its targeting a higher unemployment. They have literally told you there will be pain and suffering...now in back to back press conferences. Everyone shit on the fed a year ago for being dovish, now they are hawker than the hawkiest hawks.

All we've seen is the market trying to price the rate hikes. We have not seen the actual effect of the rate hikes slowing down growth. Literally every indicator in existance that points to recession is pointing to recession. We're seeing huge sell-offs and we're seeing big money go into short calls.

I may be talking crazy and might be completely wrong. But I've looked at all this repeatedly at different angles and I've failed each time to see how I'm the one in the wrong.

I follow the oil and gas market a lot closer than the rest of the stock market, but I am thinking the market has already priced in a significantly worse recession than what will actually happen. The economy has to go to almost Great Depression levels to justify this demand destruction they are forecasting, no way oil should be below $80 right now. A lot more bad stuff than just super high inflation is needed for the recession to be that bad

Or I am wrong and we are fucked lol

These posts starting to scare me lol.

Yeah I see what you guys mean because some people really believe itll be a good time to get in on the stock market once it crashes even more but eh I dont have a say in it

CompatibleGreet posted...

These posts starting to scare me lol.

Yeah I see what you guys mean because some people really believe itll be a good time to get in on the stock market once it crashes even more but eh I dont have a say in it

People who got in sheen covid decimated it made out like a bandit, why would that not happen again?

I saywait for the nadir which is likely mid next year

Makeveli_lives posted...

People who got in sheen covid decimated it made out like a bandit, why would that not happen again?

The fed isnt going to bail the market out this time. Itll come back eventually but we wont get the v shaped recovery we had back then.

Yup thats exactly why not again...the fed fucked up in 2020 by easing like never before. Everyone agrees they fucked up. Then they were adamant that inflation was transitory when they were clearly wrong and waited too long to do anything about it. They completely lost credibility from early 20 to early 22. This year they are on a missing to (1) control inflation (2) regain credibility. There may be some zig zagging and the worst thing they could do is enact policies that exacerbate the zig zagging instead of a gradual return to normal. Inflation is coming down faster than it went up -> some people think we're going to overshoot and get deflation. Then what....do they ease up? Then what happens when we get inflation back to 5-6%, do they tighten? What does everything think of the fed when we spend the next 2 years yo-yoing and prolonging our inflation volatility?

Dan_Haren- posted...

long-term investors

Maybe that's why?

I guess its not a bad play. I just think things are still overpriced and will continue to fall further.

I think this recession will resemble early 2000s rather than 2008. But I could be totally wrong. Its pure speculation but I think august would be a good time to start buying next year. Thats when I plan to buy a house actually.

It's another good day to be all cash.

ENZC about to drop below 3 cents

I'm very close to finally losing money on this after two years lmao

Shoulda bought gold

I'm waiting for another bear market rally so I can buy SQQQ when its low. Its at 57 right now. if it drops below 50 I'm going balls deep.

Dan_Haren- posted...

I'm waiting for another bear market rally so I can buy SQQQ when its low. Its at 57 right now. if it drops below 50 I'm going balls deep.

Will you go mid shaft if it gets to 53?

Full depth or nothing. I just pulled out.

With Sqqq in the last 6 weeks I've turned 600 to 770 bucks, about 28%.

Just transferred alot more money from my bank account to robinhood, it gets fully processed next week. Looks like there's a mini rally starting up now. Hopefully this continues for a bit.

ew Robinghood

Damn was hoping yday rally would last through next week until my deposit processes.

The year is not over, but I have over 50k put in my 401k this year. Yeah, I know, it's not the stock market, but closely associated w/ it.
At least that has been green all year.

C6Driver posted...

The year is not over, but I have over 50k put in my 401k this year. Yeah, I know, it's not the stock market, but closely associated w/ it.
At least that has been green all year.

How did you add $50,000 into your 401k this year? The yearly max contribution is $20,500.

And what are your 401K's positions if it's actually green in 2022? Stocks, bonds, indexes... unless you're shorting with an inverse ETF or something they're all blood red. Unless you mean that you're green all-time, which if you started contributing between 2009 and 2021 I'd certainly hope so.

Definitely need some clarification on that post...none of that stuff made sense.

Im assuming they meant their balance is 50k, but yeah not sure about the green all year comment.

401ks by nature never really allow investing in any inverses or wacky stuff like that.

Unless hes been letting it sit in a cash equivalent all year or something. Or hes factoring in net return, including employer match, on what hes personally invested.

man I should have just hidden my money under my mattress
this isn't working at all the way I thought it would

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/9/3/7/AAO7dSAADvPh.png

Gonna start buying more Ford and pray for the best

Bros..don't buy.

I just don't see any way the market recovers any time soon. I'd love to hear logical explanation for optimism...other than just "no one can predict and anything can happen".

Inflation still high, demand still high, people employed, etc. We have not yet seen the effects of high interest rates...all we've seen is the market trying to price in those effects and honestly it still hasn't reached a price-in nadir. We got a ways to go. Then once business profits are down, layoffs happen even more, and stock prices go down way further.

On top of all of our domestic issues. Europe is completely fucked not only by worse inflation, worse central bank policy, worse fiscal policy, worse leaders, worse business strength, worse everything. Europe is big time fucked, as is Asia and emerging markets.

We do alot of business in Europe so that will also hurt our economy further.

There's going to be a world wide recession...ours not as bad as Europe but it'll drag us down further than we initially projected.

Take my advise with a grain of salt cuz I'm just another guy on the internet but im absolutely dumbfounded by anyone still buying anything other than inverse etfs. I'd ur plan is very long term and ur just DCAing then sure. That's all.

And I totally understand DCA...I've read the bogleheads books. But I don't see the harm in putting DCAing on hold for 8-12 months because conditions are just so bad right now. If you absolutely need to invest in something then do ibonds. And once that's maxed do high rated corporate bonds or long term treasuries. If anything now is a great time to diversify with bonds and treasuries. Then late next year keep DCAing into stocks and etfs.

I mean, if theres stuff Im sitting on and companies I would like to own where current prices are already below my avg cost, Im gonna buy more.

Not going crazy, dont get me wrong, but a little bit here and a little bit there. I also am fine never selling and holding onto everything until I die, so thats just me. But yeah, I dont think anyone should get into this now and hope and pray for a quick turnaround anytime soon. Get in for the long haul, or dont get in at all.