Current Events > Stock Market General #46

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah, I'm still putting a little bit in here and there. I'm not making large buys like I used to mostly because I'm trying to focus more of my money on paying off debts. My car should be paid off in 2023, and then I plan to pay off a couple of other things I've bought. Then I'll likely be putting most of my money in cash on hand savings, but still investing more with the money I've freed up every month.

Ford is a good buy IMO, cheap with a $0.60/share dividend and once the supply shortage bullshit is done theyre gonna make a shitload of money on Maverick sales

I agree about Ford. I think it might drop further though. With peoples savings dwindling, interest rates super high, and most EV manufacturers increasing EV prices the same as the tax credit amount, I'd imagine demand for cars goes down.

Rumor is several major banks are over leveraged on derivatives and fucked.

Also gonna try and load up on cash through the end of the year, just tossing $100 a month at stonks for now.

Would like to hit about $10k in savings, havent ever done before lol

Tyranthraxus posted...

Rumor is several major banks are over leveraged on derivatives and fucked.

Where r you hearing this?

Since I first mentioned SQQQ and my negative sentiment posts...sqqq is your from 35 to almost 60. I think it's gonna go more. If the June peak was 66 were gonna hit 80+ IMO.

Anony1125 posted...

man I should have just hidden my money under my mattress
this isn't working at all the way I thought it would

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/9/3/7/AAO7dSAADvPh.png

That's sobering.

Dan_Haren- posted...

Where r you hearing this?

https://twitter.com/TrackInflation/status/1576344922017628161?s=19

Credit Suisse is reportedly fucked as well.

Next few months gonna make the banking crisis from 2008 look like a "lol whoops" overdraft fee

Tyranthraxus posted...

https://twitter.com/TrackInflation/status/1576344922017628161?s=19

ELI5?

What is a derivative?

CableZL posted...

What is a derivative?

A derivative is a thing that is based on another thing and when that thing does well the derivative does well. Things are not doing well right now.

Edit: options are a type of derivative.

IronTusk posted...

How did you add $50,000 into your 401k this year? The yearly max contribution is $20,500.

And what are your 401K's positions if it's actually green in 2022? Stocks, bonds, indexes... unless you're shorting with an inverse ETF or something they're all blood red. Unless you mean that you're green all-time, which if you started contributing between 2009 and 2021 I'd certainly hope so.

Ah, I knew this would have people intrigued. I have contributed over 16k myself, and my employer put in over 33k (back in March for '21's profit sharing) and yes, green all-time, which makes sense, yes ?

Tyranthraxus posted...

https://twitter.com/TrackInflation/status/1576344922017628161?s=19

Should I be worried about this even though my bank is FDIC insured?

Blue_Thunder posted...

Should I be worried about this even though my bank is FDIC insured?

Yes because this is depression zone

Blue_Thunder posted...

Should I be worried about this even though my bank is FDIC insured?

don't need to worry when you have no money ^_^

My stonks are up today

What madness is this

littlebro07 posted...

My stonks are up today

What madness is this

Give it a day

Tyranthraxus posted...

https://twitter.com/TrackInflation/status/1576344922017628161?s=19

Does this impact credit unions?

SergeantGander posted...

Does this impact credit unions?

Credit unions are NPOs and won't have anywhere nearly as much invested in contracts. But the issue isn't really whether it affects your bank. This is literally poised to be a repeat of 2008 which affected everyone regardless of bank use.

If something can end up at a status of negative quadrillion, I have to imagine it's just agreed upon that nothing will happen to the banks, they'll just sit on their debt or whatever until it rebounds

tldr the banks are not "fucked," nothing will actually happen. remember this is america and all this money is fake

Should be getting a $4200 refund on my student loan I paid off mid-2020 soon, dropping it all into my emergency fund as soon as it gets deposited

AngelsNAirwav3s posted...

I just bought in a bunch of GUSH today at $114, hopefully this is the bottom!

Up to $142 today, not bad. We will see what this OPEC production cut is going to look like.

So short everything now?!

Sexypwnstar posted...

So short everything now?!

Best time to short wouldve been a year ago, but maybe youll still get some gains now if were in for more hell.

I think theres growing concern over the treasuries market. Fed is selling because of QT. Foreign economies suffer from a strong dollar, driven by the fed raising rates, so they sell treasuries to protect their currency. All of this results in increased supply of treasuries => decreased prices => increased rates. That instability in the treasury market is why some people think the fed might stop selling and maybe even buy to stabilize prices, which is counterproductive to the inflation fight. BoE did the same thing last week. All of this is leading people to speculate a premature letting off the breaks by the Fed. Its a bad cycle overall though.

On top of all of the issues we have, now if Opec cuts production, estimated to be about 1% of their total production, that could raise prices, and increase inflation, and hurt business growth.

All my stonks were up today

The recovery is here

/s

Im up almost 9% today. Surely this cannot last?

literally every position is green.

that'll last.

hah

krazychao5 posted...

literally every position is green.

that'll last.

hah

Same. All green but SQQQ and UVXY of course

This is making me feel better for buying stocks the past few months

Theres no sound basis for this rally. Its purely speculative that people think inflation is coming down and that the fed will pivot. Part of that pivot reasoning is also so that the fed doesn't obliterate emerging markets. Bond yields coming down is a good sign in general. Other reasoning is that job openings are starting to decrease, housing is starting to come down, etc.

Again if ur long-term (>10 years), it makes sense to buy this "dip". But my opinion hasn't changed, I think a q4 rally is almost expected then '23 will be a shit show. The fed will keep hiking. Businesses booming is counterproductive to the inflation fight. Housing hasn't come down nearly as much as it should. Energy is now going to start going up as the US is no longer going to its strategic reservoirs (which artificially lowered gas prices this summer). If we're not going to our reservoirs and OPEC is cutting production, gas will shoot up again which worsens inflation. Prices for goods are still high and still have increased month to month. The key number is going to be wages. If wages keep rising and unemployment is low, then inflation will continue and the fed will continue to raise rates.

Personally I'm going to just ride the waves with x-multiplier leveraged etfs like tqqq, sqqq, gush, etc. Its been fairly easy to predict because it seems like the entire market moves together. Either everything is up or everything is down and these ups and downs aren't instant.

What exactly is driving this sentiment? Does the market really think the fed will start lowering rates again? I don't think there's any indication we've slowed inflation, in fact it seems to be getting worse around the rest of the world.

theAteam posted...

What exactly is driving this sentiment? Does the market really think the fed will start lowering rates again? I don't think there's any indication we've slowed inflation, in fact it seems to be getting worse around the rest of the world.

Its all based on bond yields. This video explains it well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfUc0-zY3VI&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

And heres the counter argument against that video from a legendary bond investor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7X4BXxhbZk&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

CableZL posted...

This is making me feel better for buying stocks the past few months

With all the gloom and doom, just look back at prices a year ago and say at least I didnt buy in then. Sure, things could keep going back down, but I do feel its pretty fair to say that things are on sale now so its definitely not the worst time to be buying. As long as youre not being reckless and going all in on anything, if things keep going down you would have certainly loss less than those who got in at the top of things and are now stuck.

And yeah, we have on awesome green day here. Maybe things go back to hell tomorrow? Maybe they dont and we scraped the true bottom? No one has any clue any which way, and if anyone tries to say they know for sure, theyre full of it. Everything is a guess at this point.

Just dont miss out on buying just a little bit now even, as the FOMO from hindsight when looking back and seeing these potential bottoms is all too real.

Dan_Haren- posted...

Its all based on bond yields. This video explains it well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfUc0-zY3VI&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

Wow I can't believe that's the same guy that Trump hired. Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

The second video I guess is where my thoughts are more geared towards. Obv the market disagrees this week but I will say we can get all the way back to 390-400 and still keep the longer downtrend intact so yeah I really don't know.

Further proof that me buying stocks makes them go down

Bought two shares of F today and it's the only stock I have that's down from when I bought it lol

Just transferred some more money to robinhood...doesn't get processed until next wednesday...WTF

Stocks are rallying because of potential fed pivot...yields are going down....I think it's all based on the Jolts report of lower employment figures.

Unemployment report comes out this Friday and CPI next week. Those are the key reports people will react to.

Turbulent seas

ADP reports more job hires than expected.

The tight job market saw another month of sizeable pay hikes, with annual pay trending up 7.8% from a year ago, according to ADP, which compiles the report in tandem with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. Those changing jobs saw a median change in annual pay of 15.7%, down from 16.2% in August for the biggest monthly drop in the three years ADP has been tracking the data.

as long as jobs remain strong and wages are rising, there will be no pivot in sight.

We still got a long way down, folks.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/3/3/1/AALUVDAADv07.jpg

1 dollar when? been thinking about putting in another 200 bucks to average down lol

^ If it meant as much as these tweets and releases are making it out to be, it wouldn't be a three cent stock.

Im not actually going to follow ENZC news. Im just gonna wait for my one thousand dollars to turn into one million.

Fuck it just asked for an extra 150 to be transferred then Ill be done for good with adding more.

TaylorHeinicke posted...

^ If it meant as much as these tweets and releases are making it out to be, it wouldn't be a three cent stock.

Ill be satisfied with like 8 cents tbh.

Averaging down on a junk stock isn't a solid strategy.

Thinking longer term calls on oil (at least January). OPEC is cutting 2 million barrels of production per day.

Makeveli_lives posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/3/3/1/AALUVDAADv07.jpg

1 dollar when? been thinking about putting in another 200 bucks to average down lol

https://twitter.com/godfathercap/status/1577640595128041474?s=46&t=ShSjV4BhKTOqFCWfNLQneQ

https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/enzolytics-reports-successful-completion-of-an-mtd-tolerability-study-of-its-itv-1

also does this mean anything to anybody or is it just unnecessary hype?

It has the potential to be huge

I need like $80k to be debt free other than the house so come on Twitter, do your thing and pump it up damn it. Only need like $2/share to walk away with that after taxes lol