Board 8 > Stock Topic 25

(+) Yeah! (+)

I bought back a very small stake in GME at $183. I've seen so many articles in the media today confidently predicting it will go down after earnings that I feel like it's probably going up. If it does plunge, not the end of the world. If it goes to the moon I want to have participated, even if it wasn't with very much money.

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Same, bought a little more GME

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After hours share price looking good so far. Though I didn't see anything exciting in the earnings report. Conference call coming up in a bit.

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Now we're plummeting.

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My put spreads are happy

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GME down 15% after hours despite DFV not selling

This is all backwards. DFV should be the one driving the stock, not the earnings
Wtf

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Nanis23 posted...

GME down 15% after hours despite DFV not selling

This is all backwards. DFV should be the one driving the stock, not the earnings
Wtf

Uh, the earnings should have a much bigger impact than one person with a $30 million-ish position. But more important than the earnings is what wasn't announced - Ryan Cohen as CEO or something exciting like that.

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How worthwhile is this? For a $108,000 investment, Id make $32,000. Granted its almost two years out, but thatd be an average of a 16% gain two years in a row.

Sunroof posted...

How worthwhile is this? For a $108,000 investment, Id make $32,000. Granted its almost two years out, but thatd be an average of a 16% gain two years in a row.

Considering that you recently thought a 900% gain or something like that was too low, I'm surprised you're happy with 16% a year now.

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When did I think 900% gain was too low lol

Now that I think about it, the stock is likely to be either up or down 32% in that time range. If its down, then Id collect $32k and could sell the stock to break even. If its up, then Id collect the $32k and could sell for a tiny profit (since I bought it at $117.74). Which would have been the same profit I would have made had I never made the covered call.

So how do I win? If the stock is under 32% gain or over 32% loss.

When you were discussing investing in Chris's business.

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The difference there was that he GUARANTEED profit for himself. He should be so lucky to have my money! And I think that was *only* 500%

This is the Put version. This would be an abominable move because the stock could plummet by 2023 and if it does Id have $100k worth at $120, hardly offset by the $38k (which is impressively higher than the calls 32k)

Does anyone want to tell him that companies literally exist to make a profit lol. Mine is no different!

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Chris, I jest. I was being unreasonable

Upon further reflection, the Put would actually be better than the Call because in either example I would be owning the stock at $120 if it plummeted. Might as well make the higher premium?

I do not plan on doing this in either case, but Im still trying to understand all the aspects of both.

Charge your phone. Those screen shots are making me anxious.

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red sox 777 posted...

Uh, the earnings should have a much bigger impact than one person with a $30 million-ish position. But more important than the earnings is what wasn't announced - Ryan Cohen as CEO or something exciting like that.

A normal stock would act like that, sure
But GME is different. The current price is so disconnected with reality and it's just pure social media hype rally

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Nanis23 posted...

A normal stock would act like that, sure
But GME is different. The current price is so disconnected with reality and it's just pure social media hype rally

That would be more like GNUS. GME has some seriously weird fundamentals (short interest and nowadays mostly options interest). GME also has this weird thing where some people are valuing it as a decaying brick and mortar retailer and other people are valuing it as a high growth ecommerce startup.

I actually think that the market in general has gone overboard on valuing ecommerce businesses so much more than brick and mortar retail, and GME is the perfect illustration, since it has people using both valuation approaches with a single stock, creating the dissonance. Like, why is SHOP valued at 449 times its earnings? Why is the business Ryan Cohen started, Chewy, valued at $35 billion? They sell pet food online (and no, they apparently don't turn a profit yet).

Perhaps I'm missing something, but the way I see it, if Gamestop's transition to ecommerce is successful, it should be more valuable than Chewy owing to the greater market size of gaming compared to pet food and higher growth rate of the industry. Maybe twice as valuable looking briefly at the industry sizes? A $70 billion market cap for GME would put the share price at approximately $1,000. So another way of saying this is that the current valuation predicts about a 20% chance of a successful transition (assuming the legacy business is worth basically nothing). Or another way would be- supposing GME's legacy business did not exist, and it was a startup with net equity on its balance sheet (more assets than debts)- I don't think the market would bat an eye at it being valued at $12 billion.

I mean, the answer, again in my opinion, is probably that there is something seriously bubbly about the current market valuation of ecommerce businesses. Shopify, Amazon, etc. I also don't hear many people calling them a bubble, which is itself a sign of a bubble.

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EVRI up 3% so far. Im just going to sell at open. Until one of you tells me you also invest in EVRI every time i say its under $15, Im going to be upset.

After a while of serious investing, I decided to go take a gamble on GME today.

Only one share. Currently down by $5. This is more fun than losing $5 on a hand of blackjack, so it's fine. Interesting to see how volatile this is.

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Oh wow all my stocks just turned red. Wtf

Wow.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Charge your phone. Those screen shots are making me anxious.

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Sold some covered CODX

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Nasdaq just keeps getting pummeled.

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Buy EVRI if you havent already!

Bad news for chinese stocks today so Nio down 10%

I admit defeat
I was a fool to believe in it
I am dumb. I apologize. Please give me my money back :(

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I think I lost $15k today

Yeah, today is a pretty painful day. SCHW and F are my only green stocks today.

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Airlines -______-

it hurts bad

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Also I hope someone listened to me about amc puts. I am making bank.

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Yikes, I haven't had this much of a drop in portfolio value since I started 2 months ago.

This is also my first time playing with GME and I'm down $37. Might as well hold, though. I gambled on AMC and won like $45 and I guess most of it is being lost on GME.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Also I hope someone listened to me about amc puts. I am making bank.

My understanding of puts is that you buy the stock if it hits a certain low price?

yes, although I just sell contracts that are profitable.

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Zachnorn posted...

Yikes, I haven't had this much of a drop in portfolio value since I started 2 months ago.

This is also my first time playing with GME and I'm down $37. Might as well hold, though. I gambled on AMC and won like $45 and I guess most of it is being lost on GME.

buy disney. don't gamble

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(also especially buy disney today, dips in disney are a godsend)

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Nice double bagger on GME puts - wish I put more money in! Especially since my account is still down today. This is getting old. Luckily I closed one more position for profits recently. Didn't pull the trigger on closing DNN and waiting til around 1 or under to buy back and now I regret it.

Still trying to execute my plan to close all my positions with profits short term because going long in almost anything seems unwise over the next couple of months. Would rather day and swing trade in a market like this.

I just want to also add that IEA warrants at these prices are the easiest 3x your money buy in history right now. They were just at 6 a couple months ago - no way in hell those don't hit 10 or very close to it at some point this year; mark this post. The infrastructure bill will send IEA rocketing.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

buy disney. don't gamble

What's funny is that a few months ago, I sold Disney and among the things I bought, I bought meme stocks.

With that said, memes make up a small part of my portfolio now. Of what I have left of AMC and GME, it's less than $150 of a $5,400 portfolio. Most of my money is in ETFs like QQQ, VOO, and SPY.

I bought a bunch of QQQJ today because it dropped again to about $31.60 when I bought it (now $31.36). I'm seeing it go in cycles and I'm hoping I can sell it when it eventually goes back up to $33 again. Already set a conditional trailing stop limit order to sell half at > $33.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

yes, although I just sell contracts that are profitable.

So you sold AMC puts that didnt result in you buying AMC? How does that work? I thought you only dont but the stock if the strike price isnt reached, meaning theres probably a low premium.

I bought Disney like a week ago and am down around 10%.

Sunroof posted...

Upon further reflection, the Put would actually be better than the Call because in either example I would be owning the stock at $120 if it plummeted. Might as well make the higher premium?

I do not plan on doing this in either case, but Im still trying to understand all the aspects of both.

Yes selling puts have higher downside protection.

Generally though when you sell puts its to make money off of time decay. Time decay really kicks in about 45 days before expiration so I wouldn't advise going longer than that.

There's other reasons to sell puts as well but thats the main reason I do it at least.

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Im thinking of selling everything once my expirations hit and just doing one week puts. I dont want to own anything.

Sunroof posted...

So you sold AMC puts that didnt result in you buying AMC? How does that work? I thought you only dont but the stock if the strike price isnt reached, meaning theres probably a low premium.

Well let's say I bought a put for a dollar a share

The stock tanks, and now the puts are more valuable and are being sold at 2 dollars a share. I sell right then and there and make a dollar a share.

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Yeah, you can sell the puts instead of exercising them.

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That sounds different from what I learned about doing. Confused.

Okay. So you mean you buy a put like you regularly would to wait for Friday. But mid-week you see the stock tanks so you sell your out for a profit?