Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 10

(+) Yeah! (+)

There was a good article a week ago or so about how some of the countries that had successfully contained the virus have gotten new outbreaks again. This virus, the way it behaves and spreads, it's really impossible to permanently eradicate it until we get a vaccine.

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I think some of us are just pessimists and for some reason that reads to some of you as "wanting bad things to happen"

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ShatteredElysium posted...

I don't think the NBA bubble will fail but they have not been consistent in the length of time players have to quarantine for breaching the bubble.

Richaun Holmes crossed the bubble line by like 10ft to grab delivery food - 10 Day Quarantine

Lou Williams leaves bubble for a funeral (and goes to a titty bar) - 10 Day Quarantine

Zion Williamson leaves bubble for a family matter - 4 Day Quarantine

Realistically Zion should have had to quarantine for longer in my opinion.

They base it on possible interactions. If Zion just went to his house with his family who has been in quarantine, then it would be 4 with a negative test result also of course. If to a big event, 10-14. That's why Caruso skipped his sister's wedding.

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Tom Bombadil posted...

I think some of us are just pessimists and for some reason that reads to some of you as "wanting bad things to happen"

There are pessimists and then there are people who are simply attached to bad outcomes

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1. Wear your DAMN masks
2. wash your DAMN hands
3. Do not go in populated areas
4. 4. Stay at home and quarantine

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guffguy89 posted...

There was a good article a week ago or so about how some of the countries that had successfully contained the virus have gotten new outbreaks again. This virus, the way it behaves and spreads, it's really impossible to permanently eradicate it until we get a vaccine.

Outbreaks in the tens, or hundreds.

We are tens of thousands and have been for months.

guffguy89 posted...

There was a good article a week ago or so about how some of the countries that had successfully contained the virus have gotten new outbreaks again. This virus, the way it behaves and spreads, it's really impossible to permanently eradicate it until we get a vaccine.

I posted the article in this topic. It's from CNN. Likely just 50 or so posts back if that.

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weren't you arguing before that japan was doing great despite minimal lockdown measures?

My overall point has always been "the only way out is herd immunity."

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Even abandoning all restrictions we would not reach herd immunity before having a likely vaccine.

We would just kill more people and actually cripple the economy.

Mississippis Republican Governor Tate Reeves on why herd immunity isnt a good solution.

1) "Let's talk about herd immunity. I've listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I'm not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:"
2) "The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let's assume they're wrong (it's certainly possible, they have been before.) Let's assume they're being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity."
3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"
4) "Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again."
5) "On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we'd need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day -- every day -- for a year."
6) "I'm not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I'm pretty skeptical by nature. That's healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was."
7) "Unless you're willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They're a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!"

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/15/politics/tate-reeves-mississippi-coronavirus-herd-immunity/index.html

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Leafeon13N posted...

Even abandoning all restrictions we would not reach herd immunity before having a likely vaccine.

We would just kill more people and actually cripple the economy.

That's one theory. It is also based on numbers of infected we likely will never fully know. It also is based on vaccine turnarounds that have never happened in history before also.

We have zero idea reliably how many actually have been infected in areas like say NYC in conjunction to what could constitute here immunity. We also have never seen a vaccine that possibly is coming in under a year compared to typically a 10 year cycle.


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Even abandoning all restrictions we would not reach herd immunity before having a likely vaccine.

New York has already reached herd immunity.

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SmartMuffin posted...

New York has already reached herd immunity.

No they havent. Its not herd immunity unless they could go back to life as normal and not go back to exponential growth.

They may have had 20-30% of the city get the disease, which certainly helps stop the spread a lot (reducing R by a factor of .7-.8), which brings them below 1 when combined with their currently sustainable level of distancing, mask wearing, etc. But they had to go through a completely unacceptable level of death and suffering to even get to that.

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SmartMuffin posted...

New York has already reached herd immunity.

Factually incorrect. There's no expert opinion out that to support such a wild claim.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

No they havent. Its not herd immunity unless they could go back to life as normal and not go back to exponential growth.

They may have had 20-30% of the city get the disease, which certainly helps stop the spread a lot (reducing R by a factor of .7-.8), which brings them below 1 when combined with their currently sustainable level of distancing, mask wearing, etc. But they had to go through a completely unacceptable level of death and suffering to even get to that.

Why are you acting like you know the r0 there or how much current measures are doing for the spread?

You can't possibly know any of that which you said, nor how many effectively have had the disease (nor muffin can).

It is all theory at this point.

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Corrik7 posted...

Why are you acting like you know the r0 there or how much current measures are doing for the spread?

You can't possibly know any of that which you said, nor how many effectively have had the disease (nor muffin can).

It is all theory at this point.

The scientific consensus is that R0 is in the 2-3 range. It's certainly not less than ~1.4, which is what you would need for herd immunity even in the case where 30% of the population had been infected. Iirc serology testing has found antibodies in ~20-30% of NYC residents.

The combination of mitigation measures and partial herd immunity has self evidently brought the effective R below 1 since new cases have been decreasing there.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

The scientific consensus is that R0 is in the 2-3 range. It's certainly not less than ~1.4, which is what you would need for herd immunity even in the case where 30% of the population had been infected. Iirc serology testing has found antibodies in ~20-30% of NYC residents.

The combination of mitigation measures and partial herd immunity has self evidently brought the effective R below 1 since new cases have been decreasing there.

Antibodies fade quickly and are not reliable indicators of who all had the virus because you could have no antibodies and still have had it. The T Cell response remains after your antibodies fade within many people as little as 3 weeks later.

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Also there is no consensus on the r0. They can't even agree on the r0 for measles lol.

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I have seen no one seriously arguing that it's below 2. I know there are some scientists that argue that it's above 3.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I have seen no one seriously arguing that it's below 2. I know there are some scientists that argue that it's above 3.

There have been studies that said 2. 2.2. 2-2.5. 2-3. 5-6. 5.8 6.6

Point is that there is absolutely zero consensus to it yet you acted like there was. You are providing "consensus"and facts that don't exist.

We don't know what % of New York has been infected. All we do know that it is definitely higher than their reported cases. Likely drastically much much higher.


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No they havent. Its not herd immunity unless they could go back to life as normal and not go back to exponential growth.

They may have had 20-30% of the city get the disease, which certainly helps stop the spread a lot (reducing R by a factor of .7-.8), which brings them below 1 when combined with their currently sustainable level of distancing, mask wearing, etc. But they had to go through a completely unacceptable level of death and suffering to even get to that.

They have, and they could.

Their pathetic level of excess death compared to virtually everywhere else (including places like Sweden that had no lockdowns and no masks) is due entirely to Cuomo freaking out TOO MUCH and ordering infected patients back into nursing homes, because he was preparing the hospitals for a deluge of young and healthy people which never materialized.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

I'm no medical expert, but don't a lot of common diseases (and covid is absolutely going to be one) not care about herd immunity?

Vaccine is how you get herd immunity

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v_charon posted...

Factually incorrect. There's no expert opinion out that to support such a wild claim.

you're insinuating muffin isn't an expert?!

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https://twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1287718300340891649

Here's a chart plotting government COVID response intensity versus deaths per million. Spot the correlation!

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SmartMuffin posted... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html

New outbreak rising in Japan. Must be because those science-hating rednecks refuse to wear masks.

Actually Japan may be one of the few places where fewer people are wearing masks now then when then pandemic began, because it's hot. Also a lot companies have started sending their employees back to work, leading to crowded rush hour trains (my company did this for two weeks before letting us go back home once cases starting approaching 100 per day in Tokyo again). Everything has pretty much opened back up too. So the rise is really not surprising.

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SmartMuffin posted...

I've harped on inter-sport comparisons before (why is soccer supposedly safe, but football definitely not?), so here's a new one

Why is it safe for baseball to travel around the country and play in everyone's home stadium, but not safe for hockey or basketball to do that?

This aged well. We are already seeing just how safe it was for baseball to return. The fact that they let players who tested positive still play is also baffling

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1287755381083701249

Still no mandatory masks in Denmark. Guess they're just a bunch of Trump-worshiping science haters, too!

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SmartMuffin posted...

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1287755381083701249

Still no mandatory masks in Denmark. Guess they're just a bunch of Trump-worshiping science haters, too!

not sure why you keep harping on this point - is anyone arguing that the only people who refuse to wear masks are american trump-worshiping science hating rednecks? sweden has already proven that's clearly not the case.

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is anyone arguing that the only people who refuse to wear masks are american trump-worshiping science hating rednecks?

In the US, nearly everyone believes this.

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I know that most of my friends and family in England are pissed about the masked orders that are going in place there and think it's ridiculous they have to do it. I've seen very little in support of it on Facebook and probably 75-80% of my friends list is based in the UK

The biggest "surge" we have is a surge in negative tests, lol.

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We couldn't make it 4 days before baseball is canceling games, but yes,

Corrik7 posted...

You just want things to fail for some reason

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Aecioo posted...

We couldn't make it 4 days before baseball is canceling games, but yes,

They are just postponing games. Why would you have thought this wasn't a possibility? They didn't cancel the season.

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A baseball game delayed? UNPRECEDENTED! OBVIOUS PROOF THAT ALL OF SOCIETY MUST BE TOTALLY SHUTDOWN FOR 5 YEARS!!!

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Corrik7 posted...

They are just postponing games. Why would you have thought this wasn't a possibility? They didn't cancel the season.

I'll just let you keep posting. It will be fun to look back on in the future

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Aecioo posted...

I'll just let you keep posting. It will be fun to look back on in the future

Um ok? Lol.

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https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1287783752677183488

For all the people who keep baselessly insisting that the Florida data must be lies...

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muffin: we have no evidence that the US numbers are right.
also muffin: look at this perfect florida data!

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That's a stupid characterization of my position and you know it.

I'm okay with either of the following: Trusting all the data we have (because even if it's not perfect, it's the best we've got), or admitting that all of the data is likely flawed in such a way that we cannot draw reliable conclusions.

YOUR position, and that of the mainstream media, seems to be something like "Any data that makes left-wing politicians look good or right-wing politicians bad should be trusted, but any data that does the opposite is definitely flawed and probably a lie." THAT is dishonest and unsustainable.

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Spain supposedly had 6k+ new positives over the weekend. Not confirmed yet.

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Guess they didn't lock down enough. That or they aren't wearing masks. Those are the only possible explanations.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-to-keep-employees-home-until-summer-2021-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-11595854201

Google is having employees work from home until July 2021. Damn.

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SmartMuffin posted...

I'm okay with either of the following: Trusting all the data we have (because even if it's not perfect, it's the best we've got), or admitting that all of the data is likely flawed in such a way that we cannot draw reliable conclusions.

i guess i can agree that it's very likely all the data is flawed to a certain extent, but why the fuck are these the only two possbilities? this is a false dichotomy if i ever saw one.

it's definitely possible that certain countries have less reliable data because they do shit to their data that other countries don't do. like, for instance, underreporting covid deaths to make themselves look better (there was a long time when people accused russia of doing this). there's absolutely no logical reason to go "EITHER 100% OF THE DATA IS GOOD OR IT ALL SUCKS!"

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i guess i can agree that it's very likely all the data is flawed to a certain extent, but why the fuck are these the only two possbilities? this is a false dichotomy if i ever saw one.

Those aren't the only two possibilities - but they are the only two fair possibilities.

Yes, in reality, the actual state of affairs is that some countries are probably overstated, some are probably understated, and some are probably reasonably accurate. But as it stands today, we have no real way of knowing who is who. We can speculate, on a case by case basis, all we want. But it's also trivially easy to notice that the most common speculations correlate perfectly with political bias. CNN hasn't accused a single Blue-state governor or progressive European nation of under-counting deaths. Nor have they accused any red-state of overcounting deaths. Do you suppose that is a coincidence?

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8564247/Are-masks-giving-men-licence-stare-Women-report-rise-aggressive-eye-contact.html

masks are cancelled

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SmartMuffin posted...

Yes, in reality, the actual state of affairs is that some countries are probably overstated, some are probably understated, and some are probably reasonably accurate. But as it stands today, we have no real way of knowing who is who. We can speculate, on a case by case basis, all we want.

this is reasonable. but it baffles me that you're able to understand this but ALSO flood this topic with graphs, statistics and data on which you base wild claims like "new york has reached herd immunity" and "lockdowns do more harm than good."

i'll admit that i've probably drawn too many conclusions on the available data. if you want to attack me (or CNN) for this, fair enough. but it doesn't come across as a believable attack when you're doing the exact same thing.

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Smuffin out here posting tabloid links now

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