Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 10

(+) Yeah! (+)

Corrik7 posted...

Why do you keep saying this with absolutely nothing to back it up with?

weren't you saying "the belgium numbers are wrong but so are the new york numbers" earlier? now you're saying the belgium numbers are undeniably correct?

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

weren't you saying "the belgium numbers are wrong but so are the new york numbers" earlier? now you're saying the belgium numbers are undeniably correct?

I said you are saying the Belgium numbers are incorrect for things new York and PA did also. You are providing zero proof they are incorrect. You just keep repeating it over and over.


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Corrik7 posted...

I said you are saying the Belgium numbers are incorrect for things new York and PA did also. You are providing zero proof they are incorrect. You just keep repeating it over and over.

the belgium numbers are incorrect because they - like new york and pennsylvania - also count the deaths that are only suspected to be covid deaths. if you do it that way, it's obviously wrong to say "we're 100% sure these are all covid deaths."

also, i'm basing this on the wikipedia article about covid deaths in belgium. so i don't have "absolutely nothing to back it up with."

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

the belgium numbers are incorrect because they - like new york and pennsylvania - also count the deaths that are only suspected to be covid deaths. if you do it that way, it's obviously wrong to say "we're 100% sure these are all covid deaths."

also, i'm basing this on the wikipedia article about covid deaths in belgium. so i don't have "absolutely nothing to back it up with."

Post Belgium's excess deaths for the time period subtracted by covid-19 claimed deaths and see if the expected deaths is negative. If not, you can possibly assume that the number is actually underreported, like people suggest is true in New York and elsewhere.


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https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1285793901954162689?s=20

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https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1286021116193058817?s=20

California will have the most cases in the USA very soon if not already.

https://www.ksby.com/news/coronavirus/who-is-holding-people-accountable-atascadero-man-says-roommate-kept-covid-19-diagnosis-secret

In reinfection news.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/health/covid-antibodies-herd-immunity.html


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Another 250k day

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http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/prevention-risks/covid-19-and-sex

If you want to have sex, glory holes is a good idea according to this.

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Damn, cases are suddenly exploding in my county (Kern, CA). It had been staying around mid 100s to low 200s per day, but over the past week it's jumped to 400-500, then to 800-900, and now today it's over 1120. Fuck.

They're also doing a very terrible job of getting through the tests in a timely manner. The county website shows the cases based on when the tests were performed, and hundreds of these newly confirmed cases are still being added to days in June.

So I guess it's not a sudden explosion of new cases so much as a very delayed explosion.

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mnkboy907 posted...

Damn, cases are suddenly exploding in my county (Kern, CA). It had been staying around mid 100s to low 200s per day, but over the past week it's jumped to 400-500, then to 800-900, and now today it's over 1120. Fuck.

They're also doing a very terrible job of getting through the tests in a timely manner. The county website shows the cases based on when the tests were performed, and hundreds of these newly confirmed cases are still being added to days in June.

So I guess it's not a sudden explosion of new cases so much as a very delayed explosion.

No reason to panic. Looks like another place that simply missed out on any real spread during the "first wave" and is only now seeing significant community transmission.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/kern-county/



This is going to happen everywhere. You either deal with it now, or deal with it later. But you have to deal with it eventually.

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Forget 250k were gonna hit 275k. Fridays update will be b-a-n-a-n-a-s

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I feel like deaths/hospitalizations should be the key factor rather than positive cases.

As it becomes easier and easier to get tested, more of the people with no to mild symptoms are going to find out they are positive and increase the numbers. These people were positive for COVID before expanded testing, they just never got tested, so they never knew....I feel like deaths and hospitalizations are a better way to analyze if things are getting better or worse in your area.

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Well, a lot of states have backlogged results which are making the new cases hard to decipher for trends and curves.

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guffguy89 posted...

I feel like deaths/hospitalizations should be the key factor rather than positive cases.

governments have typically been using hospitalizations as the key measure.

With an eye on positive % as this is one of the key indicators of increases spread.

Deaths are a bad stat to look at because if you react to deaths you are already too late due to the incubation period. Even hospitilizations are a bit laggy, hence the need to look at stats that the virus is spreading faster.

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Corrik7 posted...

http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/prevention-risks/covid-19-and-sex

If you want to have sex, glory holes is a good idea according to this.

https://twitter.com/bethanylindsay/status/1286062720031363077

"Today at YouPorn, we sent a letter to Honorable Adrian Dix, Minister of Health of British Columbia, for a $100K grant to support the building of glory holes across the province, further promoting 'socially distant' safe sex."


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charmander6000 posted...

https://twitter.com/bethanylindsay/status/1286062720031363077

"Today at YouPorn, we sent a letter to Honorable Adrian Dix, Minister of Health of British Columbia, for a $100K grant to support the building of glory holes across the province, further promoting 'socially distant' safe sex."

Haha. Too funny.

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I mean sex absolutely is something important during a pandemic.

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/health/cdc-coronavirus-school-guidelines-new/index.html

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https://nypost.com/2020/07/23/dr-fauci-flattens-curve-straight-into-ground-on-opening-day-first-pitch/

Still more accurate than his COVID estimates!

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SmartMuffin posted...

https://nypost.com/2020/07/23/dr-fauci-flattens-curve-straight-into-ground-on-opening-day-first-pitch/

Still more accurate than his COVID estimates!

Yeah I remember when we were talking about just 60,000 dead by August..

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Yes, it's absolutely a fact that early on, everybody (including the experts you insist I worship) dramatically underestimated COVID. And then they immediately flipped to dramatically overestimating it. And they were wrong both times. That's actually pretty impressive.

Almost as impressive as me being right both times! I prepped and told others to do so in early March, then by May, correctly realized it was all a big panicmongering exercise designed to advance progressive political ends...

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https://twitter.com/jeffreyatucker/status/1286458377749626887

Oh, and this is probably an underrated aspect of our collective delusion. Trump, personally, is famous for his gemophobia. God only knows how many other deranged people we've placed in positions of power...

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SmartMuffin posted...

Almost as impressive as me being right both times! I prepped and told others to do so in early March, then by May, correctly realized it was all a big panicmongering exercise designed to advance progressive political ends...

if it's all a big panicmongering exercise designed to advanc progressive political ends, how were you right in march about prepping being a super big deal

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The benefits will officially end this weekend and I have no idea what theyre planning to do about that.

if it's all a big panicmongering exercise designed to advanc progressive political ends, how were you right in march about prepping being a super big deal

Because in March it wasn't clear. It looked risky. And the primary reason to prep was to avoid supply chain issues (toilet paper, which happened) and economic devastation (layoffs happened for many, but fortunately not me).

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PerfectChaosZ posted...

The benefits will officially end this weekend and I have no idea what theyre planning to do about that.

They aren't releasing details of republican end of it until Monday.

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They can literally afford to wait

Corrik7 posted...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/health/cdc-coronavirus-school-guidelines-new/index.html

Really sad to see the CDC fall to political pressure.

Of course, at this point, even if conditions do improve to the point where that would be their honest recommendation, their credibility will be shot.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Really sad to see the CDC fall to political pressure.

Of course, at this point, even if conditions do improve to the point where that would be their honest recommendation, their credibility will be shot.

Pretty much every other country that did a study on it agreed with the same findings.

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Corrik7 posted...

Pretty much every other country that did a study on it agreed with the same findings.

1. The risks increase as the level of infection in the general population increase
2. The CDC very clearly changed their recommendations due to direct political pressure from Trump
3. Israel's experience has shown that there are dangers to reopening schools even when the virus is present at low levels in the surrounding community.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

1. The risks increase as the level of infection in the general population increase
2. The CDC very clearly changed their recommendations due to direct political pressure from Trump
3. Israel's experience has shown that there are dangers to reopening schools even when the virus is present at low levels in the surrounding community.

There is more areas than Israel that reopened schools and they are fine. You are picking and choosing data to support what you want the finding to be.

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https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1286714336573104128

The "second wave" (aka the south's first wave) has peaked and will be over within another 1-2 weeks. Schools can safely reopen in September, guaranteed.

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Florida appears to have plateaued on cases. Deaths have been near highs or close lately at around 120-170 a day. Hospitalizations are continuing to rise from what I have seen with about 400 new hospitalizations a day (not sure how many discharged). However, not exponentially growing though.

5 minors have died in Florida now. The youngest being 9 years old.

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If we want to reopen schools that badly we should shut everything down for 3 to 4 weeks.

But we really just want to send kids to school to force parents to go to work because it's really just for the economy.

Leafeon13N posted...

But we really just want to send kids to school to force parents to go to work because it's really just for the economy.

I want my kid to go to school so his learning isn't stunted from missing out on a learning environment.

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Our second grader really needs to go back to school. The third grader can probably make it until the vaccines but the cancellation of outside activities and limited socialization has taken a toll. The fifth grader will be fine. I really would like the kids to go to school, but, I also don't want the school to be a mess and teachers not buying in, kids messing with masks and not being able to get real socialization etc. I worry for school faculty.

We also don't have plans for things like "if a kid has a sick family member, do they have to stay home? how will they make up time?" and so on. We still have time to iron out plans, but what I've seen so far is poorly thought out. It's been hard to find good discussion because it's become so politicized about the election/economy.

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Send K-5 back. Have K and 1 in 1 building with 1 start time. 2 and 3 in another building with a different start time. 4 and 5 in another building with a different start time. Allow to watch virtual classes if they wish to opt out.

Use gymnasiums, cafeterias, etc for much larger spaces to space out kids in each school. Busses are socially distanced via the spread out across times and schools. Classes are distanced. 6-12 learns remotely. And people can still opt their kids out and watch classes remotely from home if uncomfortable. If family or they are sick, tune into the virtual feed!

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/world/coronavirus-response-resurgence-wave-intl/index.html

Hmmm.

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Can't you achieve all that by having everyone learning virtually?

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charmander6000 posted...

Can't you achieve all that by having everyone learning virtually?

Young kids with no structure in learning environments learning virtually? That's not the most feasible idea.

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charmander6000 posted...

Can't you achieve all that by having everyone learning virtually?

There is no question we have to get kids back to school. The problem is making it safe for teachers and caretakers, many of which are grandparents.

using middle/high schools to spread out elementary school kids is actually an interesting idea

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Corrik7 posted...

Young kids with no structure in learning environments learning virtually? That's not the most feasible idea.

How's that any different than learning in a classroom? Teachers can't exactly do anything physical to make a kid listen/not misbehave.

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charmander6000 posted...

How's that any different than learning in a classroom? Teachers can't exactly do anything physical to make a kid listen/not misbehave.

*Sigh* trying not to lose my patience with you.

Kids tend to conform to the authority right in front of them and with others that are following the rules around them. Kids who have had no structure in a learning environment and are in houses surrounded by their TV's, toys, games, etc, are much harder to get to learn and follow instruction. This also compounds in development throughout their life and can cause a learning deficiency.

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charmander6000 posted...

How's that any different than learning in a classroom? Teachers can't exactly do anything physical to make a kid listen/not misbehave.

Its an association thing. Especially younger children associate school with an expectation of having to learn and pay attention. Whereas home they associate with play and relaxation.

Corrik7 posted...

*Sigh* trying not to lose my patience with you.

Kids tend to conform to the authority right in front of them and with others that are following the rules around them. Kids who have had no structure in a learning environment and are in houses surrounded by their TV's, toys, games, etc, are much harder to get to learn and follow instruction. This also compounds in development throughout their life and can cause a learning deficiency.

I'm not trying to be mean or anything, just having a discussion...

I'm just not seeing the difference, classrooms for K-3 all have toys and even play time in their curriculum, not including recess/lunch (at least at my elementary school). I don't think you are giving kids enough credit. If they can know the difference between "playtime" and "schoolwork time" in the classroom, they can also do the same at home.

There's also the added benefit of more parental support. It's well known in schools with high levels of parental support kids tend to perform better.

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charmander6000 posted...

I'm just not seeing the difference, classrooms for K-3 all have toys and even play time in their curriculum, not including recess/lunch (at least at my elementary school). I don't think you are giving kids enough credit. If they can know the difference between "playtime" and "schoolwork time" in the classroom, they can also do the same at home.

There's also the added benefit of more parental support. It's well known in schools with high levels of parental support kids tend to perform better.

This is just fantastical thinking. If you keep non-homeschooled kids home, they are not going to do as well in remote learning situations. Plus you're also bringing in parents, who may or may not have the ability, temperment or time to monitor a full day of school.

colliding posted...

This is just fantastical thinking. If you keep non-homeschooled kids home, they are not going to do as well in remote learning situations. Plus you're also bringing in parents, who may or may not have the ability, temperment or time to monitor a full day of school.

I mean, if schools decide to enact social distancing the children aren't going to do well regardless, the added stress of essentially avoiding your friends and classmates will do that. Two meters may not be a huge distance, but mentally for some people its akin to social isolation.

Also parents don't need to be present, even popping in and out to make sure the kid is participating would do wonders.

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I think its okay to say there is no good solution to the school situation and the kids are kinda fucked. Charge it to the game

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