Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 10

(+) Yeah! (+)

*sighs*

entropy wins

entropy always wins
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the anti-Cloud vote has always been an anti-favourites vote. when was the last time Cloud was the underdog besides Link?
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Ill at least take solace knowing that Link will skewer this asshole (if Zelda doesnt kill him first)
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I think there's no way Zelda doesn't clown him. It got lost among the shuffle, but that early vote against Link was legendary. The wind is in her favor.
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Yeah Zelda is the feelgood story over Mario.

KamikazePotato posted...

I think there's no way Zelda doesn't clown him. It got lost among the shuffle, but that early vote against Link was legendary. The wind is in her favor.

And now that Mario is the villain and loses the board vote to CLOUD, well...

Mario has always been the villain.
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Hmm. If you average out the last twenty minutes, this is actually a pretty decent start for Cloud
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The Mana Sword posted...

Mario has always been the villain.

A+ post

would read again
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eh, maybe theres a chance here. I doubt it but maybe.
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Mario is always the villain but right now Mario is the VILLAIN. When's the last time a result like that (that didn't involve rallies) actually brought out feelings of legitimate disgust among voters?
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so my assumpton before this match was that the top 10 looked something like this

Link

Zelda
Mario
Samus

Cloud
Snake

Mega Man
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic

with each tier being more or less equal to each other. Im thinking the numbers more or less show this with the possible exception of Snake?
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transcience posted...

so my assumpton before this match was that the top 10 looked something like this

Link

Zelda
Mario
Samus

Cloud
Snake

Mega Man
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic

with each tier being more or less equal to each other. Im thinking the numbers more or less show this with the possible exception of Snake?

I would put Sephiroth and Sonic on a lower tier than Mega Man and Crono.

Snake is a big question mark for me. He had three good matches (the Zelda result was redeemed when Zelda turned around and beat Mario), and then ended his run by getting crushed by Samus. The final number on that one doesn't sit well with me.

I think indirectly, with no bandwagon strength, it goes:

Link>Samus>Mario>=Zelda=Snake>Crono=Mega Man>Sephiroth>Sonic

Am holding off on ranking Cloud.
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Also, going purely by raw unadjusted stats, Sonic looks like absolute trash.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Also, going purely by raw unadjusted stats, Sonic looks like absolute trash.

Usually I would just go Lol x-stats but I think he really is terrible this time.

Come on Cloud. I do not want to see Mario leading Link even for a minute.
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41 on Mario isnt any better than Crono/Mega based on this result. theres still time to move, but yeah. maybe Sonic is off. its hard to say whats what with Zelda.
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Hmm, Sonic did worse on Auron than I thought. 54% on Auron isn't great, but I'm not sure how much worse that makes him than the division winners from the regular bracket.
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depends how strong Auron is

if he's still on Bowser's level that makes Sonic almost on par with Crono and Megaman

but that seems unlikely given the rather apparent nintendo boost all around

Go on?

>>>Off course
No, way
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this could happen
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LeonhartFour posted...

Go on?

>>>Off course
No, way

Going for 32,000 points baby
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People's Champion Cloud

I love it. He has been heel too long
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Gotta slow the momentum a bit, Cloud
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Sonic feels like he got to keep some dignity just because he didn't make news this contest. He didn't break the Noble Nine, he didn't choke a close match, he basically just did what he was supposed to and dropped out on schedule. Can't say the same for Mega Man or Sephiroth. Sonic could still be weaker than them, but at least he didn't embarrass himself.
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Sonic lost to Zelda
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I'm pretty sure Sonic recorded the worst 1v1 loss a Noble Niner has ever recorded to an outsider against Zelda.
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Sonic put up the worst Round 1 Legends performance out of any character, then got blew out by Zelda, then got blew out by Snake. I don't think I've seen a single post about Sonic for the last few weeks that wasn't some variation on "Sonic sucks".
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A solid third of the posts about Samus/Snake were about how much Sonic sucks.
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Yeah, Sonic didn't put up a single respectable performance this contest.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, Sonic didn't put up a single respectable performance this contest.

Sonic hasnt had a respectable performance since beating Crono
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Eh, I wouldn't say that's true. He honestly looked pretty solid in 2010 and 2013, all things considered.

Dunno what happened to him this year.
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Forever_Black posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, Sonic didn't put up a single respectable performance this contest.

Sonic hasnt had a respectable performance since beating Crono

Serves him right.
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the contest started just a week or so too early for Sonic

these days everyone is talking about him
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still the greatest successful comeback in contest history
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I picked Sonic so he had to die. That's just the rule of nature.
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LeonhartFour posted...

still the greatest successful comeback in contest history

I think that's Undertale vs. Mass Effect.
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I don't mean in terms of total votes

I mean in terms of quality
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I have to agree

Only because Frog Mario'd Chief out of his comeback though
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LeonhartFour posted...

I don't mean in terms of total votes

I mean in terms of quality

Oh. In that case Sonic/Crono was the worst!
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save us zelda
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its kind of crazy how many close matches weve had in this legends bracket. today might end up the 5th time weve had one end within 1%, and there have been two others within 2%.
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Im holding off on writing this one until I feel like its clear who Zelda is facing but looks like that wont happen!
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I went ahead and wrote it when it looked like Mario was going to pull away this morning

I'll just roll with it, why not
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Losers Bracket: Finals Zelda vs Cloud Strife or Mario

Monitars Analysis

Zelda
Legends Round 1 - 50.32% vs. Solid Snake
Legends Round 2 - 56.45% vs. Sonic the Hedgehog
Legends Round 3 - 50.91% vs. Mario
Legends Round 4 - 36.44% vs. Link

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono
Legends Round 3 - 39.48% vs. Link
Losers Round 4 - 57.79% vs. Crono
Losers Round 5 - 50.00% vs. Mario

Mario
Legends Round 1 - 59.25% vs. Sephiroth
Legends Round 2 - 51.42% vs. Samus Aran
Legends Round 3 - 49.09% vs. Zelda
Losers Round 4 - 50.03% vs. Samus Aran
Losers Round 5 - 50.00% vs. Cloud

See Kleenexs write-up below.

Monitars Voting Tip of the Day: Sometimes when I talk to people who are impressed by my write-ups, they say things like 'I could never do that'. It's really depressing, you know? As someone who loves more than anything else to share the joy of exploring matches......it pains me when people think that being good just comes naturally. That's how it is with everything, not just write-ups.

When you try something for the first time, you're probably going to suck at it. It can be pretty disheartening to put so much time and effort into a write-up, and then you realize youre wrong. But that tends to happen when you're always comparing yourself to the top Crew members. When you reach right for the stars, they're always gonna be out of your reach, you know? The truth is, you have to climb up there, step by step. And whenever you call your first correct prediction, first you look back and see how far you've gotten...And then you look ahead and realize how much more there is to go.

So, sometimes it can help to set the bar a little lower...Try to find a match you think is pretty good, but not world-class. And you can make that your own personal goal. It's also really important to understand the scope of what you're trying to do. If you jump right into a huge match and you're still amateur, you'll never get it right. So if we're talking about writing, a novel might be too much at first. Why not try some easy matches? The great thing about easy matches is that you can focus on just one prediction that you want to get right. It's such a good learning experience and stepping stone.

Oh, one more thing...Write-ups aren't something where you just reach into your heart and something beautiful comes out. Just like drawing and painting, it's a skill in itself to learn how to express what you have inside. That means there are methods and guides and basics to it! Reading up on past Crew topics can be super eye-opening. That sort of planning and organization will really help prevent you from getting overwhelmed and giving up. And before you know it...You start sucking less and less.

Nothing comes naturally. Our society, our art, everything - it's built on thousands of years of human innovation. So as long as you start on that foundation, and take it step by step...You, too, can do amazing things.

Monitars Prediction of the Day: Zelda 50%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

With Cloud and Mario doing a bit of a repeat of their 2002 match, it's kinda impossible to forecast this one. Cloud and Mario are very different opponents for Zelda! Cloud already outperformed Zelda on Link but that's already a weird situation.

Zelda's worst performance was probably her match against Snake. I think Cloud would beat Snake, and so I kinda think Cloud beats Zelda. Then again, Zelda demolished Squall and I tend to use those kinds of comparisons when trying to figure out how the audience would shift. Mario beat Seph 59/41 and this match is 50/50 so maybe I should stop doing that.

As for Mario, I think everyone is collectively sick of his crap. It was a good feeling when he rocked Sephiroth so hard and seemed like a clear #2, but he went and barely limped over the finish line vs. Samus, lost a close one to Zelda and is now doing the same thing vs. Cloud. That's four matches in a row at 52/48 or closer. Mario's last second heroics yet again vs. Samus soured people on him, and seeing a Zelda/Mario runback would be pretty disappointing. If he wins here, I think he gets crushed under the Zelda bandwagon.

Barring Mario's BS, I think Cloud wins this match. The chances of Mario's BS is probably like 80%, but if Cloud wins here, I think that upset could propel him into the finals to get assassinated by Link again. Watch out for that plucky Final Fantasy VII underdog!

transience's predictions:

Zelda over Mario with 53.44%
Cloud over Zelda with 52.33%

Leonharts Analysis

Sadly, it looks like Cloud is going to fall short against Mario here. I guess theres still a chance he could pull it off, but its trending in the wrong direction currently, so Im assuming this is going to be Zelda vs. Mario at this point. I think Mario has a better chance of beating Zelda than Cloud does just because the hierarchy will let him keep it fairly close to start with, as well as the fact that he lost the first time. I think a rematch that was close the first time favors the loser, as we saw with Mega Man/Pikachu and Mario/Samus. At the same time, the once heroic Mario has become the villain in the eyes of many once again, so he may face some anti-voting from the registered users, which could make a difference when the match is bound to be close.

If Cloud is here instead, I honestly think his best chance to win is smart voters not wanting to see Link vs. Zelda again when we just saw it a couple days ago. On the other hand, seeing Link vs. Cloud again isnt exactly appealing either, which is another reason to favor Mario against Zelda since we at least havent seen that matchup yet this year.

Leonharts Vote: Zelda

Leonharts Prediction: Zelda with 51.44%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Zelda clowns either one of these fools. This is my Official Analysis.

Kleenex's Prediction: Zelda with 51%

Guest's Analysis - Luster Soldier

Zelda should likely win the next match, but it's not as clear if she can maintain her bandwagoned strength after losing to Link. The closest situation I could think of is Mewtwo in 2013 where he lost to Draven, but still appeared to keep his bandwagoned strength in the bonus match with Pikachu and Mega Man. That bonus match was very weird, as Mewtwo lost less than 2% for the rest of the match after the board vote, which isn't consistent with typical bandwagon trends.

The current Cloud/Mario match is still too close to say who moves on, but either one of them should lose to Zelda next. I don't really see Zelda losing the next match because hentai rallies will save her if it's very close.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Solid Snake

Luster Soldier's Second Chance Bracket: Cloud Strife

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Zelda - 50.64%

Crew Consensus: who knows but probably zelda
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Zelda gets 53% on whoever wins
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Another match where the crew doesn't know who 1 of the finalists are!
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