Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 198: The Manchinian Candidate

(+) Yeah! (+)

Jakyl25 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

In other legal news, The Situation just got sentenced to 8 months in prison

Pardon him!

Whatever he did, Im sure Kavanaugh can relate

Tax evasion

So a presidential pardon is not outside of the realm of possibility!
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I can't imagine many people are disappointed by Collins since Manchin was a yes already so unless Flake had another visit from Jimminy Cricket her vote wouldn't matter in the slightest.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I can't imagine many people are disappointed by Collins since Manchin was a yes already so unless Flake had another visit from Jimminy Cricket her vote wouldn't matter in the slightest.

Do we have literally any evidence Manchin would be a yes in the event that only 49 Republicans voted Yes?

Yes what the leaker did was unconscionable. I can't believe they'd take advantage of Dr. Ford in that way. Good thing Collins is standing up to the person who traumatized her life like that!
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People should maybe wake up and realize that threatening senators with massive donations to their opponents isn't a good way of convincing them to vote with you. It's too bad that Democrats don't seem to understand any persuasion technique other than force these days.
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Susan Collins: "We must listen to survivors"

"(...and then ignore them for whatever is more politically convenient for me)"
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I believe Ford

except for her having 100% confidence it was Kavanaugh, that can't possibly be true she must be messed up
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*check twitter*

Oh dear, this is the saltiest it's been since 11/9/16
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

In other legal news, The Situation just got sentenced to 8 months in prison

Pardon him!

Whatever he did, Im sure Kavanaugh can relate

Tax evasion

So a presidential pardon is not outside of the realm of possibility!

Nah Trump makes profits off of our taxes

Hes stealing from Donalds pockets!
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CelesMyUserName posted...

I believe Ford

except for her having 100% confidence it was Kavanaugh, that can't possibly be true she must be messed up

It's literally the fucking Ed Whelan doppleganger theory and now it's the mainstream GOP position
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WlTNESS
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Manchin announced he was also a yes pretty much immediately after Collins
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Joe Manchin announces that he's a yes

THAT'S ALL FOLKS
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Enjoy the wedding Senator Daines! Don't need ya!
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"Don't be stupid, SEP, Manchin won't vote it"
"Iunno he's hardcore Trump in his local ads, I think he will"
"You're stupid, SEP"

Hmm.
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HashtagSEP posted...

"Don't be stupid, SEP, Manchin won't vote it"
"Iunno he's hardcore Trump in his local ads, I think he will"
"You're stupid, SEP"

Hmm.

Reg posted...

Do we have literally any evidence Manchin would be a yes in the event that only 49 Republicans voted Yes?

(I mean, I agree with your larger point but...)

LordoftheMorons posted...

Manchin announced he was also a yes pretty much immediately after Collins

kinda hilarious how blatantly opportune this timing is announcing it just after Collins makes a huge speech about it and take the cover for him
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Bipartisan support for future Justice Brett The Hitman Kavanaugh!
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HashtagSEP posted...

"Don't be stupid, SEP, Manchin won't vote it"
"Iunno he's hardcore Trump in his local ads, I think he will"
"You're stupid, SEP"

Hmm.

^^^

Manchin was and has been a yes for a long time, like Collins.

The interesting ones were Murkowski and Heitkamp. Thought those two would be yes as well.
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Like I said before, Manchin doesn't need Trumper support and yet he's so desperate for them anyway that his campaign ads are practically him giving them a reach-around
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Bipartisan support for future Justice Brett The Rapist Kavanaugh!

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Suprak the Stud posted...

The interesting ones were Murkowski and Heitkamp. Thought those two would be yes as well.

Makes me think Murkowski knew he'd get confirmed and took that as reason to appease her base. Sexual assault is a huge issue in Alaska.

I think she walks away from this squeaky clean.
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That said, Manchin may have just screwed himself over

All the local ads are pushing how Trump supports/endorses his opponent. So if he loses Democrat support at all... lol
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I've thought we was going to pass with 53 or 54 (all reps (+ or - Murkowski because despite her R shes more of an I in practice) + Donnelly/Heitkamp/Manchin)votes before the allegations came out

I stand by my initial analysis. I think the GOP is going to pay a price long term for having stood by Kavanaugh and for no real gain vs withdrawing him and nominating say Amy Barrett.
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Manchin will win by 15+
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Sexual assault is a huge issue in Alaska.

Isnt it a huge issue everywhere?
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Eddv posted...

I stand by my initial analysis. I think the GOP is going to pay a price long term for having stood by Kavanaugh and for no real gain vs withdrawing him and nominating say Amy Barrett.

Collins wouldn't have confirmed Amy Barrett

This is an overall massive win on all fronts

Conservatives have been trying to win a true majority on the court for 60+ years
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

The interesting ones were Murkowski and Heitkamp. Thought those two would be yes as well.

Makes me think Murkowski knew he'd get confirmed and took that as reason to appease her base. Sexual assault is a huge issue in Alaska.

I think she walks away from this squeaky clean.

It is definitely a devastating problem in Alaska, particularly amongst the native population where it is higher than any other group in the country if the numbers I read last time I looked into this are still current. That's a very significant part of her base, so she was likely listening to her constituents on the issue.

I don't know how Murkowski votes at 49 for if she's the decider, but I feel like this is what she wanted to do. Same with Manchin. Like I understand that they're both politicians, but this is also just who their history shows them to be.

And yeah, Murkowski is an institution in Alaska and has wide support from even democrats there, so she's likely untouchable. Republicans would be crazy to put forward a primary challenge on here over this, because she'd just run as an independent and crush them again.
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As long as you're an R, it's only an issue if you get caught.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Manchin will win by 15+

Manchin may be the next Byrd in that if he coasts this easily now, that seat is his seat until he dies or retires.

Very disappointed by this vote, but there is absolutely nothing the democrats can do about it.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Sexual assault is a huge issue in Alaska.

Isnt it a huge issue everywhere?

It is actually worst in Alaska by a frightening margin. Definitely an issue everywhere, but it is grotesquely bad in Alaska.

https://www.cnn.com/2014/02/03/opinion/sutter-alaska-rape-list/index.html

These numbers are what I was thinking of earlier, so I'm not sure how much it has changed in four years.
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HashtagSEP posted...

That said, Manchin may have just screwed himself over

All the local ads are pushing how Trump supports/endorses his opponent. So if he loses Democrat support at all... lol

I don't think there's that much "democratic" support there in that sense. Like, I would be surprised in Heitkamp gained in the polls now since the same thing could be argued there.

Which is a shame because I quite liked Heitkamp and we're never going to get another ND democrat in the Senate. She made the right choice on Kavanaugh in spite of the political advantages that voting yes would have, which is admirable.
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That was a very thorough and great speech by Collins.
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Thing is, I really do think Republicans could have gotten 60+ votes on a pair of justices had they done the process more correctly.

I think there are enough moderates who want a return to normalcy in Senate leadership that they'd have gone along with it short of one of the judges turning out to be a mercurial rapist like they did (woops)
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I was going to post earlier that whomever loses the Kavanaugh battle would get a huge boost for the midterms.

Seeing the responses, I believe it even stronger now.

The GOP could have gotten their seat AND taken the Republicans dont care about women card away from the Dems with Barret.

I think theyll hurt bigly for this, but who can really say until November.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

HashtagSEP posted...

That said, Manchin may have just screwed himself over

All the local ads are pushing how Trump supports/endorses his opponent. So if he loses Democrat support at all... lol

I don't think there's that much "democratic" support there in that sense. Like, I would be surprised in Heitkamp gained in the polls now since the same thing could be argued there.

Which is a shame because I quite liked Heitkamp and we're never going to get another ND democrat in the Senate. She made the right choice on Kavanaugh in spite of the political advantages that voting yes would have, which is admirable.

2012 wasn't exactly another lifetime, I do think things will eventually calm back down.

Nate Silvers analysis on this was pretty spot on - a vote Yes after how much she spoke on her opposition to him likely would have played a cravenly politically motivated move and would have been the "safe" play in a race that she is losing , at best, by 8 points in.

This is a move that stays true to herself (and her brand) and is definitely the higher variance move which is the smart play because even though it probably won't work its better than playing conservative and losing by 8 pts anyway.
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Eddv posted...

Thing is, I really do think Republicans could have gotten 60+ votes on a pair of justices had they done the process more correctly.

I think there are enough moderates who want a return to normalcy in Senate leadership that they'd have gone along with it short of one of the judges turning out to be a mercurial rapist like they did (woops)

Even if Collins doesn't vote Barrett like Seph says, I would think Heitkamp and Donnelly both do without much hesitation. I don't think they hit 60, but I imagine it is not very dramatic and then you don't have the democratic base fired up even more about this.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I was going to post earlier that whomever loses the Kavanaugh battle would get a huge boost for the midterms.

Seeing the responses, I believe it even stronger now.

The GOP could have gotten their seat AND taken the Republicans dont care about women card away from the Dems with Barret.

I think theyll hurt bigly for this, but who can really say until November.

Doesn't even matter

This Court is now worth more than any ephemeral control of Congress, than any Presidency
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I was going to post earlier that whomever loses the Kavanaugh battle would get a huge boost for the midterms.

Seeing the responses, I believe it even stronger now.

The GOP could have gotten their seat AND taken the Republicans dont care about women card away from the Dems with Barret.

I think theyll hurt bigly for this, but who can really say until November.

Nah. Dont get your hopes up.
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https://twitter.com/AmbassadorRice/status/1048305496732491777

battle of the susans
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I mean, if McConnell doesn't McConnell and Trump puts forward Gorsuch with Garland on the bench, then yeah I could easily see 60-65 votes yes.

I fear those days are gone now though. I have a hard time imagining you get easy confirmations any more unless you have both the presidency and the senate.
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https://twitter.com/tonyposnanski/status/1048307153038135296
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Jakyl25 posted...

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I was going to post earlier that whomever loses the Kavanaugh battle would get a huge boost for the midterms.

Seeing the responses, I believe it even stronger now.

The GOP could have gotten their seat AND taken the Republicans dont care about women card away from the Dems with Barret.

I think theyll hurt bigly for this, but who can really say until November.

Nah. Dont get your hopes up.

The Dems were never taking the Senate, but this is the lowest I've seen their house chances on 538 since they started covering it. So...yeah. You have way more optimism than me. The polling isn't looking great and hasn't for the past week.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I mean, if McConnell doesn't McConnell and Trump puts forward Gorsuch with Garland on the bench, then yeah I could easily see 60-65 votes yes.

I fear those days are gone now though. I have a hard time imagining you get easy confirmations any more unless you have both the presidency and the senate.

Yep.

The Do-Nothing Congress under Obama followed directly by a President who openly mocks people for being weak and conceding, means the idea of bi-partisanship is fucked, probably until a President running specifically on bringing people together wins by a landslide.

Who knows how long that will take?
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Reg posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

I can't imagine many people are disappointed by Collins since Manchin was a yes already so unless Flake had another visit from Jimminy Cricket her vote wouldn't matter in the slightest.

Do we have literally any evidence Manchin would be a yes in the event that only 49 Republicans voted Yes?

Manchin being a yes is how we alrdy knew Collins was a yes.
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CelesMyUserName posted...

https://twitter.com/AmbassadorRice/status/1048305496732491777

battle of the susans

Dang, I was just wondering if there were any big names in Maine that would draw the sort of excitement needed to even challenge a big name like Collins.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Eddv posted...

I stand by my initial analysis. I think the GOP is going to pay a price long term for having stood by Kavanaugh and for no real gain vs withdrawing him and nominating say Amy Barrett.

Collins wouldn't have confirmed Amy Barrett

This is an overall massive win on all fronts

Conservatives have been trying to win a true majority on the court for 60+ years

The court isn't anymore a majority now than it was before.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

I mean, if McConnell doesn't McConnell and Trump puts forward Gorsuch with Garland on the bench, then yeah I could easily see 60-65 votes yes.

I fear those days are gone now though. I have a hard time imagining you get easy confirmations any more unless you have both the presidency and the senate.

Yep.

The Do-Nothing Congress under Obama followed directly by a President who openly mocks people for being weak and conceding, means the idea of bi-partisanship is fucked, probably until a President running specifically on bringing people together wins by a landslide.

Who knows how long that will take?

I don't see it ever happening. Kasich tried to campaign on that and republicans told him to go kick rocks. Now he's labeled as a RINO even though he's more conservative than Trump. Flake too. Flake got run out of the party and Trump's supporters view him as a traitor and a fake republican based on the fact he sometimes once in a while is critical of Trump and is friends with democrats. That's all it takes to be a RINO in politics now.

Trump would have to be soundly defeated in 2020 for any hope of that brand of Republicanism coming back, and I just don't see it. I think this is where we are now. And we're going to be here for a long time.
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