Current Events > If you have a 1/100 chance to draw a card and don't draw it in 99 tries

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bloodydeath0
02/02/18 10:53:14 AM
#1:


What are the REALISTIC chances that you will draw it on your 100th draw?

Checkmate, angstheists
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ThyCorndog
02/02/18 10:53:51 AM
#2:


are the cards replaced or not?
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bloodydeath0
02/02/18 10:54:35 AM
#3:


Yes
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pieisthebest
02/02/18 10:55:57 AM
#4:


1/100
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MysticMismagius
02/02/18 10:56:40 AM
#5:


Then its a 1/100 chance to draw your card on the 100th pull.
The outcome of the previous pulls does not influence the probability of getting a specific outcome.
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ThyCorndog
02/02/18 10:57:06 AM
#6:


bloodydeath0 posted...
Yes

then it's 1/100. the draws are independent and always have the same probability
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Muffinz0rz
02/02/18 10:58:04 AM
#7:


If the cards are being replaced, then 1/100
If not, then 100/100
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KainWind
02/02/18 10:58:48 AM
#8:


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DevsBro
02/02/18 11:25:47 AM
#9:


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Panthera
02/02/18 11:27:49 AM
#10:


About tree fiddy
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bloodydeath0
02/02/18 1:43:44 PM
#11:


KainWind posted...
Did I complain on gamefaqs first? This is proven to increase odds.

Correct
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AverageCEgal
02/02/18 1:44:42 PM
#12:


there is no statement that states how many cards total there are
the puzzle is unsolbable
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UnholyMudcrab
02/02/18 1:44:55 PM
#13:


I was gonna say it depends on whether you trust in the heart of the cards or not, but you clearly don't if you haven't gotten the right card for 99 straight draws. You're never gonna get that card.
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uwnim
02/02/18 1:47:26 PM
#14:


Muffinz0rz posted...
If the cards are being replaced, then 1/100
If not, then 100/100

Eh, if there are 100 cards and they are not replaced, then on the 100th, it would really be 1/1. First is 1/100, then 1/99, 1/98, etc.
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ThyCorndog
02/02/18 1:47:54 PM
#15:


uwnim posted...
Muffinz0rz posted...
If the cards are being replaced, then 1/100
If not, then 100/100

Eh, if there are 100 cards and they are not replaced, then on the 100th, it would really be 1/1. First is 1/100, then 1/99, 1/98, etc.

100/100 = 1/1
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Mizznox
02/02/18 1:50:43 PM
#16:


If the cards are not being replaced, then it depends on the total # of cards. 1/100 doesn't mean there's necessarily one goal card and 100 cards total. Could be 5/401 at that point, or 8/701, etc.

But yeah, if the cards are being replaced, then it's always 1/100.
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hollow_shrine
02/02/18 1:51:40 PM
#17:


bloodydeath0 posted...
What are the REALISTIC chances that you will draw it on your 100th draw?

Checkmate, angstheists

It's 1/100.
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Mikablu
02/02/18 1:52:33 PM
#18:


AverageCEgal posted...
there is no statement that states how many cards total there are

If there's a 1/100 chance to draw a card, that means there's 100 cards.
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DevsBro
02/02/18 1:53:09 PM
#19:


If you have 99 tries to draw a card and you don't draw a card, you should probably get an F in art class.
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Weezy_Tha_Don
02/02/18 1:54:15 PM
#20:


AverageCEgal posted...
there is no statement that states how many cards total there are
the puzzle is unsolbable


nice
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Bloodychess
02/02/18 1:55:16 PM
#21:


ThyCorndog posted...
are the cards replaced or not?

this guy gets it
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DevsBro
02/02/18 1:56:15 PM
#22:


If there's a 1/100 chance to draw a card, that means there's 100 cards.

Not necessarily. Maybe there are 200 cards and 2 of the one you want. Or maybe it's the one on top.
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Unsugarized_Foo
02/02/18 1:56:19 PM
#23:


Mikablu posted...
AverageCEgal posted...
there is no statement that states how many cards total there are

If there's a 1/100 chance to draw a card, that means there's 100 cards.

I guess if you have the same card more than once, it'd be x/100x times, thus 100x cards
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Mizznox
02/02/18 2:12:25 PM
#24:


Mikablu posted...
AverageCEgal posted...
there is no statement that states how many cards total there are

If there's a 1/100 chance to draw a card, that means there's 100 cards.

There's a 1/13 chance of drawing an ace in a standard deck of cards. There are more than 13 cards.
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annax0
02/02/18 2:12:31 PM
#25:


there's a 50% chance

you either draw it or you dont
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bloodydeath0
02/03/18 10:53:54 AM
#26:


I said realistic chances

If you dont draw it in 99 tries, but you have a 1% chance of drawing it, then on your 100th draw you have a really high chance of drawing it like probably 60%
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Doe
02/03/18 10:54:59 AM
#27:


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AceAttorneyist
02/03/18 11:00:20 AM
#28:


bloodydeath0 posted...
I said realistic chances

If you dont draw it in 99 tries, but you have a 1% chance of drawing it, then on your 100th draw you have a really high chance of drawing it like probably 60%


Nah
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Tmk
02/03/18 11:01:06 AM
#29:


If there's a deck of 100 cards and you need to draw one specific card in it, and the deck is reshuffled every draw, and you failed to draw the card 99 times, there's a 1% chance you draw the card on your 100th attempt. Additionally, the compound probability of failing to draw that card 100 times in a row is 36.6%. Failing to draw it 200 times in a row would be 13.3%. 300 times in a row, 4.9%.

Meaning it's more likely to fail to draw that card 300 times in a row, than to draw it on your first try.

Compound probability: a fun way to figure out ahead of time how fucked you mathematically are before you start farming some rare bullshit in a game.
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Doe
02/03/18 11:03:58 AM
#30:


Tmk posted...
Meaning it's more likely to fail to draw that card 300 times in a row, than to draw it on your first try.

Compound probability: a fun way to figure out ahead of time how fucked you mathematically are before you start farming some rare bullshit in a game.

I think your logic is a bit flawed
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Tmk
02/03/18 11:04:17 AM
#31:


Doe posted...
I think your logic is a bit flawed

How so?
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CapnMuffin
02/03/18 11:11:23 AM
#32:


It means the universe hates you and you should probably give up.
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littlebro07
02/03/18 11:12:36 AM
#33:


annax0 posted...
there's a 50% chance

you either draw it or you dont

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ChouBF
02/03/18 12:00:33 PM
#34:


Mizznox posted...
There's a 1/13 chance of drawing an ace in a standard deck of cards. There are more than 13 cards.


That's because there are four aces. -_-

If you change it to the odds of getting the ace of hearts, it becomes 1/52, THE NUMBER OF CARDS IN THE FUCKING DECK ISN'T MATH JUST SO FUCKING MAGICAL
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Medussa
02/03/18 12:05:17 PM
#35:


DevsBro posted...
If there's a 1/100 chance to draw a card, that means there's 100 cards.

Not necessarily. Maybe there are 200 cards and 2 of the one you want. Or maybe it's the one on top.


it's implied in the phrasing of the question that there is one success out of 100 cards.

If you have a 1/100 chance to draw a card and don't draw it in 99 tries

What are the REALISTIC chances that you will draw it on your 100th draw?


don't get me wrong, it's a good thought. I just don't think it applies here.
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dj1200
02/03/18 4:27:45 PM
#37:


AverageCEgal posted...
there is no statement that states how many cards total there are
the puzzle is unsolbable


it is... UNSOLBABLE.
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ghettoraider81
02/03/18 4:32:16 PM
#38:


Mikablu posted...
AverageCEgal posted...
there is no statement that states how many cards total there are

If there's a 1/100 chance to draw a card, that means there's 100 cards.


No.

There could be 2 identical cards out of 200.

That breaks down to 1/100 but if cards are not replaced then the next pull would be 2/199.
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DocileOrangeCup
02/03/18 4:33:02 PM
#39:


Muffinz0rz posted...
If the cards are being replaced, then 1/100
If not, then 100/100

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Kaname_Madoka
02/03/18 4:33:04 PM
#40:


shut the fuck up

its a 50/50 chance

it either happens or it doesnt
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SophieLuvsTofu
02/03/18 4:37:39 PM
#41:


I'd say like 48/100.

Since the chances are 1/100 but you already went 99 times I'd say your chances are higher than a 1/100 from a fate perspective.

But mathly speaking 1/100.
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kingdrake2
02/03/18 4:51:25 PM
#42:


those odd's remind me of the time i tried to farm a world of warcraft mount.

there's something that was called "Deathcharger's Reins" that had a 1% droprate from the final boss. took well over 297 times before it dropped i had some seriously bad luck.
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Paragon21XX
02/03/18 5:11:13 PM
#43:


If the cards are not replaced after each draw, then the chance that you won't draw it until the 100th try is 1%.
If the cards are replaced, then the chance that it won't be drawn until the 100th attempt is about 63%.

But if it's already known that you failed to draw the card 99 times in a row, then the chances are 100% and 1% respectively.
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