Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1276

(+) Yeah! (+)

LeonhartFour posted...

Link 2003 > Link 2002

We're the only two people on the planet that still care about x-stats that long ago... (just slightly) =P

Something that I've been stumped over for a long time: How strong was Tidus in 2003?

Tidus 2002 (adjusted): 30.4%
Tidus 2004 (adjusted): 27.19%

True, 2003 Tidus could have been somewhere inbetween those numbers, but you could make a case for his being equal to both 2002 and 2004.

A reason to believe Tidus 2003 = Tidus 2004 is Magus' opponent, Sam Fisher. Sam proved to be far weaker than originally anticipated the next two years. If Sam Fisher was the same strength in 2003 and 2005, note that Magus did slightly better than Donkey Kong against Sam Fisher. Using the adjusted 2005 Donkey Kong, 2003 Magus is at 28.50%, just slightly above 2004 Tidus. It's crazy how well that fits.

Another reason to consider the above is Magus. If Tidus 2003 = Tidus 2002, Magus tumbles in strength between 2003 and 2005, while Crono moves in the opposite direction. This is assuming Knuckles overperformed against Squall in 2005.

Or.... maybe Magus really did stay constant and Knuckles was actually as strong as his x-stat in 2005 (he was at 32% instead of the usual 27%)? If so, TIdus 2002 = Tidus 2003 would almost certainly be the case. But I don't think that's right, because that would mean a HUGE fall for Magus by 2007... as if the fall wasn't big enough already.

A reason to believe Tidus 2003 = Tidus 2002 is Ganondorf. If this wasn't true, Ganondorf goes from 28% to 32% to 35% (adjusted) in just two years. That's a big increase! Zelda went from 30.29% to 33.71% in that same period. Kinda weird how Ganondorf overtakes Zelda...

Who knows where the fluke matches were (aside from the obvious Link/Magus). For all we know, Tidus overperformed against Sonic in 2002, meaning Tidus might have been at the same level all along.

I'm siding towards Tidus 2003 = Tidus 2004 at this point. Thoughts, Leon? (probably nobody else will bother)
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Magus overperformed on Link, but the fact that Ganondorf gained so much in 2004 due to TP hype masked it. I used Sam Fisher as one of my prime examples to prove Magus 2003 was overrated and thus Squall would beat Magus in 2005 (and DK smashing Sam Fisher by nearly the same margin in 2005 only further reinforced it).

Knuckles definitely overperformed against Squall in 2005 (no surprise considering the magnitude of his upset against Magus). It makes everything else in the Devil Division make sense.

I seem to recall someone saying there were several hours of site downtime (or at least lag) in Sonic/Tidus 2002, but they never bothered to rerun it since it wasn't close enough.
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That doesn't really answer my question. Even if Tidus 2002 = Tidus 2003, Magus' four-pack was still highly overrated. Magus would be at 31.00% compared to Squall's pre-adjusted 31.72%, enough for Squall to beat Magus with 51% in the year 2003. If you adjust Squall up, the margin of victory is even greater.

Obviously Squall was capable of a larger margin than that in 2005, but part of the question was whether Tidus and Magus were stronger in 2003 than in 2005.

I'm guessing you meant to say that Tidus 2003 = Tidus 2004, though.

But now I realize that Tidus AND Magus falling by a similar amount is fishy... yeah, I'm even more convinced that Tidus 2003 = Tidus 2004. Pretty confidently now.
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There's really no way to tell the difference between 2003 and 2005 with Magus and Ganondorf because SFF ruins the whole thing. I'd say that 2004 Tidus is probably very close to what he was in 2002 and 2003. He didn't really have much reason to shift in those three years.

the best thing about the 2003 X-Stats is that Tidus and Shadow were proportionately overrated, which only further cemented the Magus deception until it was gloriously exposed
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And don't forget Frog! Frog was the final piece of the Magus deception... after all, if Frog is at 32% on BL, then surely Magus is stronger than that!
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Frog's overperformance on Snake sealed the deal, yeah.

hard to believe we actually thought Liquid Snake was anywhere near Solid Snake in popularity

that should've been a humongous red flag

also hard to believe that I argued against pics mattering for a long time too

man I was dumb
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I had GTA IV winning the GotD 2010, so.....yeah
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LeonhartFour posted...

Knuckles definitely overperformed against Squall in 2005 (no surprise considering the magnitude of his upset against Magus). It makes everything else in the Devil Division make sense.

Was Knuckles > Magus really that big of an upset to the general GameFAQs voters?

Sure, to Board 8, it was a massive upset that literally no one saw coming, but Board 8 was a drop in the hat to nearly 100,000 voters, most of whom had no idea of the significance of a Round 1 match between two side characters that one third of the site still picked correctly anyway.
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Knux > Magus was the biggest upset of round 1, even bigger than Pac-Man > Ocelot. Only 35% of brackets had it.

I mean, you can downplay it all you want, but Knuckles has never been that strong before or since, so what's the most likely explanation?
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Magus being overrated in 2005 had some merit and I remember exploring the option back then before going against it and taking Magus to win the division and Tidus > Kirby. Still, the worst case scenario for Magus still had him over Knuckles with some breathing room and the general idea back then was that Chrono Trigger was either stagnate or going up. We probably wont ever know what happened because both characters missed 2006 and in 2007 there was a format change and it was clear both Chrono Trigger and Sonic characters were weaker.

I may do a small write-up when I have my stats with me.
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My research actually put Magus below Knuckles in one scenario, but even then, I still didn't think of pulling the trigger on the upset.
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Yeah, it's a pretty hard upset to call even if you do find a situation where it might happen.
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Definitely tracking today's poll since there's the potential for huge trends (AIM should be less commonly used outside the US).
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Please, let's do GotD2.

Just with the decade being the 90s.

No, no more OoT > FFVII in the finals!

Although... actually, things have changed in the last 8 or so years. FFVII has lost a lot of power and Chrono Trigger has picked up a lot of steam. Hmm...

Either way, I don't think we were getting that many new entrants, and they wouldn't matter anyway. Let's just wait for BGE3 and hope that we get some fun contests in the meantime.
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By the way...

pjbasis posted...

I hope the reason we're not getting contests is more than just being scared of rallies

I got myself thinking... How many contests in the history of GameFAQs did not come with a prize? I'm assuming Allen also wants participants to have an incentive to participate, but since videogames have been getting so freaking costly, maybe that's also an issue.
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Advokaiser posted...

How many contests in the history of GameFAQs did not come with a prize?

Sitewide contests? Zero.

I don't think money is the issue. The last two contests have had rather generous prizes.
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Huh, we haven't had a favorite Mortal Kombat character poll since 2004. That one only had the playable characters, but this one has Goro, Reptile, and Shang Tsung.
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oh and speaking of Reptile

didn't HaRRicH want him in a Character Battle at one point

'whoops'
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I still wished we got to see a third Mortal Kombat character
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I think this poll is demonstrating that's not really necessary.

Shao Kahn would be your best bet at a third MK character at this point, I think.
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LeonhartFour posted...

oh and speaking of Reptile

didn't HaRRicH want him in a Character Battle at one point

'whoops'

Similar Ninja Factor.
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I would just think who the fuck another sub zero ripoff that isn't even Scorpion.
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literally losing to Liu Kang

get out
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Smoke for the next Character Contest plz
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By Smoke, you mean Big Smoke, who could easily get rally votes over a drive thru order

(that's the only chance GTA would ever have at winning anything)
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A "Best GTA" poll would be good at this point. V > SA > VC > IV > III would be my bet.
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Oh! Hey, guys...

Kefka vs. The Joker

Who ya got?
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Portal playrate poll today:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6862-
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That's an interesting way to phrase the first option because I don't think everyone who loved Portal 1 automatically loved Portal 2, too.
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Both are classics, but yeah, it's not necessarily agreed upon in unison. Portal is a hard game to follow-up on though for many reasons and Portal 2 was a more than admirable attempt to follow up on that.
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Advokaiser posted...

A "Best GTA" poll would be good at this point. V > SA > VC > IV > III would be my bet.

I'd take III over IV in a match, but the game may be SFF by SA and VC in a favourites poll, relatively speaking.
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LeonhartFour posted...

That's an interesting way to phrase the first option because I don't think everyone who loved Portal 1 automatically loved Portal 2, too.

The wording of that option makes this poll useless for Portal 2's playrate, but the poll can still be used to figure out Portal 1's playrate.
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charmander6000 posted...

Advokaiser posted...

A "Best GTA" poll would be good at this point. V > SA > VC > IV > III would be my bet.

I'd take III over IV in a match, but the game may be SFF by SA and VC in a favourites poll, relatively speaking.

I've read and heard at least twice recently that people have agreed overtime GTA IV > V, but I guess that's just hardcore fans talking.

Then again, although Brawl > Melee was the popular opinion for years, the hardcore fanbase that Melee represented eventually outspoke the rest.
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I figure GTAIII would be able to avoid last place simply for being the... "original" GTA for a lot of people.
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GTAIV was the blacksheep of the family though
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Yeah GTA IV is by far the worst game of all the relevant GTAs
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GTAV seems to have had the best showings so I'd back it in a best GTA poll.
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Pokemon GSC ownership poll today:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6866-

However, I wouldn't treat this as a playrate poll even if the last 2 options would exclude most of the people who haven't played it. There's still the chance that someone could have played the game without ever owning a copy. And I personally wouldn't treat the HGSS option as having played GSC, since we're interested in likely playrate of the original GSC and not their remakes.
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It just occurred to me that the HGSS option might very well count towards GSC's likely playrate, since most of the people who have played HGSS have probably played the original GSC as well. There's still that small chance someone could have played HGSS and not the originals, along with those who played GSC without owning an original copy of the game (like borrowing from a friend). The poll also doesn't factor in people who might have played it illegally on an emulator, which is another issue here.

As of right now, the first 4 options in this poll gives GSC a potential playrate of 68.60%, although the likely playrate is expected to be in the range of 69-72%.



Also, finally got around to adding Portal 1's playrate result to this page:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Have_You_Played

Portal 1 finished with a playrate of 62.31% in its playrate poll, though the poll is completely useless in figuring out Portal 2's playrate due to the way it was designed.
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While I think most people who played HGSS on this site have already played the original GSC, the fourth option seems to mostly be for those who played HGSS but not the originals.
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Advokaiser posted...

Oh! Hey, guys...

Kefka vs. The Joker

Who ya got?

C'mon, I wanna know.
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It makes no sense for Kefka to ever beat the Joker, so that's exactly why Kefka would win.
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There's absolutely no way Joker would win.
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People hardcore overestimate the strength of non-VG properties here. Besides Batman and maybe a few Star Wars characters, I don't see any of them giving NNers trouble. And I wouldn't be surprised if they just got blown out too.
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Kefka is a far cry from a Noble Niner.

We're pretty far removed from when that contest would've been interesting anyway, so whatever.
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Another Mario 1 playrate poll.

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6870-

Team Rocket Elite posted...

While I think most people who played HGSS on this site have already played the original GSC, the fourth option seems to mostly be for those who played HGSS but not the originals.

That's probably true. The overall complicated nature of the poll makes it difficult to even estimate the playrate of the original GSC. Factoring in people who might have played it on an emulator or those who borrowed the game from a friend, the playrate of GSC is probably in the range of 65-70% (adjusted downwards from an earlier estimate of 69-72%).
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That's a pretty high playrate for GSC. Can't imagine R/B/Y.

As for SMB, ~95% sounds about right for a gaming site.
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15-way favorite Final Fantasy poll happening today:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6872-

Hopefully we get a 1v1 Final Fantasy poll tomorrow between the top 2 games from today's poll (which is probably another FFVI/FFVII poll).
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this is gonna be sad for FFXV I fear
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can FF14 beat FF15?! oO

also hoping FF12 got a boost from the HD remaster, but that seems not the case.
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