Board 8 > Rigged Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1275

(+) Yeah! (+)

Harvest Moon is cool and good and you should play one of the early versions (or Stardew Valley, actually just play Stardew Valley instead).

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages
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Rigged
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*shakes fist* RIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGED!
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Super happy to get 2001 right today, but if Goldeneye and Mario Kart 64 were in the match I'd probably get it wrong.

Live by the pics, die by the pics. #2000 #2006
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So pic factor is real you assume.
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2001 is the better year anyways
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ya go my besaid aurochs
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Lightning Strikes posted...

In the case of Undertale it was receiving dramatic counter-rallying until the last match where everyone rolled over. Not to mention I find it hard to believe that FFVII wouldn't push Melee as hard as CT.

Of course, the fact that SSBM/FFVII got so many more votes absolutely suggests a stronger rally. Now, you could say that it was affected by the Undertale rally and that helped FFVII, but that runs counter to the idea that FFVII underperformed against OoT because of Undertale's rally spillover. Rallies are not chaos, we can get info out of them. Either way, the bonus matches show a remarkable consistency between the FFVI matches. I can't imagine the result of those were altered by rallying for a Smash Bros. game.

SSBM vs FF7 getting more votes is meaningless because of the Undertale rally going on at the same time. It is impossible to say how many votes came from an SSBM rally and how many came from the Undertale rally at the same time. Regardless of which game they supported, it would boost the overall vote total relative to SSBM vs CT so you can't use the difference in vote total between SSBM vs CT and SSBM vs FF7 to show that SSBM rallied more against FF7. As for which game Undertale supporters voted for in SSBM vs FF7, it doesn't really matter. The SSBM rally would more or less scale to absorb the effect.
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Safer_777 posted...

So pic factor is real you assume.

It's been real for a long time.
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What a fantastic result. 2001 is better.

Sure 1997 got picture screwed, but I'll take it!
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Ok hypothetically how bad would 1998's pics need to be for people to jump on the 1994 > 1998 train. Assume Allen is going full crazy and is willing to take out OoT/RBY/etc and substitute them for Gex: Enter the Gecko.

replace all of 98's pictures with one large pic of gex and i still take 98
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SBAllen rigging this contest for his own victory is what he should do after everyone shat on him for 2013.
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2001 doesn't have Halo, to be fair, which may be a bigger omission than Goldeneye and definitely Mario Kart 64.

And of course there is a huge list of other games you could give 2001 like Silent Hill 2 or Baldur"s Gate 2, what a good year. Will be voting for it in the finals.
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2001 would be losing right now if it had Halo
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Lightning Strikes posted...

2001 doesn't have Halo, to be fair, which may be a bigger omission than Goldeneye and definitely Mario Kart 64.

And of course there is a huge list of other games you could give 2001 like Silent Hill 2 or Baldur"s Gate 2, what a good year. Will be voting for it in the finals.

Maybe by many standards but not by this site's, which is all that matters as far as the contest is concerned.
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I now think there are four matches where, even within the constraints of SBAllen's chosen format, the loser may at least plausibly bring up the point of pictures costing them the match:

2006 vs 2011
1996 vs 2000
1991 vs 1994
2001 vs 1997

I'm sure somewhere, there exists a person whose only four misses are the ones above. You have my sword, sir.

(I'm 2-2 myself so I'll hereby stop complaining about that 2000 match)
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I now think there are four matches where, even within the constraints of SBAllen's chosen format, the loser may at least plausibly bring up the point of pictures costing them the match:

2006 vs 2011
1996 vs 2000
1991 vs 1994
2001 vs 1997

I'm sure somewhere, there exists a person whose only four misses are the ones above. You have my sword, sir.

(I'm 2-2 myself so I'll hereby stop complaining about that 2000 match)

If you're throwing 1991 vs. 1994 in there, you can argue that 1995 would've beaten 2001 with the PS1 in the pic.
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Mac Arrowny posted...

If you're throwing 1991 vs. 1994 in there, you can argue that 1995 would've beaten 2001 with the PS1 in the pic.

And no PS1 games for the year? Doubtful. Plus, 2001 has three systems that were all excluded. I think a picture that showcased the GC + Xbox + GBA could have helped 2001 become even stronger. I think 95 reached its peak in R3 when it got awesome pictures of four SNES games.
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Safer_777 posted...

So pic factor is real you assume.

Of course it's real. And likely bigger this contest than ever.

Lightning Strikes posted...

2001 doesn't have Halo, to be fair, which may be a bigger omission than Goldeneye and definitely Mario Kart 64.

Hahahahaha what!???

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I now think there are four matches where, even within the constraints of SBAllen's chosen format, the loser may at least plausibly bring up the point of pictures costing them the match:

2006 vs 2011
1996 vs 2000
1991 vs 1994
2001 vs 1997

I'm sure somewhere, there exists a person whose only four misses are the ones above. You have my sword, sir.

(I'm 2-2 myself so I'll hereby stop complaining about that 2000 match)

Well it's not about 2-2, it's about points.

Though I think many are like me, and care more about our favorites winning than our bracket. I have 2001 in my bracket but really wanted 1997 to win, and I'm fairly sure it would've won with a fair pic. Not 100% sure but pretty confident.

Getting Halo 3 vs. Super Mario Sunshine flashbacks here.

Underestimating Halo is almost as destructive a force as overestimating Halo!

But yes, Halo > Mario Kart 64 any day. Halo is evidently slightly weaker than Goldeneye, but I might actually take it to win in a match.

Edit: I'll be totally honest. I think the people complaining about fair pics aren't considering strengthening both sides, and are only focusing on disproportionately strengthening the weaker side. 2006 vs. 2011 was the worst example of this.
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Lightning Strikes posted...

Getting Halo 3 vs. Super Mario Sunshine flashbacks here.

Underestimating Halo is almost as destructive a force as overestimating Halo!

But yes, Halo > Mario Kart 64 any day. Halo is evidently slightly weaker than Goldeneye, but I might actually take it to win in a match.

I'd take both those games to kill Halo.

Edit: well, easily win anyway.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Halo is evidently slightly weaker than Goldeneye, but I might actually take it to win in a match.

And by "slightly weaker" you mean, "will get more than doubled" right? Because that's how far apart they are.
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Would you take it over Sunshine? I would not do either.
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Halo has gotten way weaker since 2010. Sunshine probably wins at this point.
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Lightning Strikes posted...

Edit: I'll be totally honest. I think the people complaining about fair pics aren't considering strengthening both sides, and are only focusing on disproportionately strengthening the weaker side. 2006 vs. 2011 was the worst example of this.

What's the strongest game that missed 11? Mario Kart 7?
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I now think there are four matches where, even within the constraints of SBAllen's chosen format, the loser may at least plausibly bring up the point of pictures costing them the match:

2006 vs 2011
1996 vs 2000
1991 vs 1994
2001 vs 1997

I'm sure somewhere, there exists a person whose only four misses are the ones above. You have my sword, sir.

@CaptainOfCrush


In the immortal words of Tidus:
HA HA HA HA HA

Edit: All joking aside, I'm slightly pissed off. I could very well win the contest if the pics weren't the way they were.
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Ouuuuch. Don't blame ya bud, I'd be salty too.

That's not to say that all four of those results would have reversed if every year got what the board considers to be its "top pics," but I think at least a case can be made for each.
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Before the match went up, 91's pic had a pretty favorable response, didn't it?
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I think 91/94 is the least likely result to flip (91 got six great pictures and 94 was missing MMX, likely its #3 game). However, if there's one console that MIGHT have been able to swing a match, it's the SNES. If both years are coming in at full strength, I can't totally discount the X-factor that one console represents.
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Yeah I don't believe 1994/1991 would have flipped. Some of us may have been misled about consoles being in the picture, but considering none of them made an appearance in any year it's safe to say they weren't going to make an appearance.

In terms of pictures. 1991 may have suffered with Final Fantasy IV being so low, but 1994 was missing Mega Man X and had Sonic & Knuckles low as well
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wait, why would 91 flip?

I have the 2006/2000/1997 trifecta with zero misses otherwise
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Because the SNES was suppose to make a difference
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then you should bury 1996, 1985, 1995 and half the contest.
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85 was tripled, there was no saving that year
95 gets PS1 = 01 getting three systems that were a bigger deal in 01 than the PS1 was in 95
96 gets N64 = 00 actually getting its four best games. I think that easily swings it, especially since at that point, 96 would be tripling down on Nintendo appeal while facing really popular Zelda and Pokemon games

If we give each year their absolute best pictures within the format, I don't think any of those results above would flip. But I think 91/94 might have, certainly with a higher likelihood than the matches above.
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I like how no one cares about the PS2
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Halo would get fucking murdered by Goldeneye and Mario Kart 64. People are dumb.
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OrangeCrush980 posted...

I like how no one cares about the PS2

True, and I think that definitely extends to the PS1. Sony consoles need a year to get cooking. Nintendo consoles have almost always released with a killer app and immediate hype.
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or 06 getting the wii/ps3, or 1989 getting its trifecta

the console argument has been the worst argument this contest.
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OrangeCrush980 posted...

I like how no one cares about the PS2

I didn't even know the PS2 was released in 2000 until this contest started.

And imagine if Allen put a PS2 game up for 2000's match pic.
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If we're talking about putting years at their strongest and allowing consoles, why not allow rereleases? Don't see why we can't allow, say, 1999 to have Pokemon Yellow since it is a distinct game from Red/Blue.

1999 with Pokemon Yellow as its lead and Final Fantasy VIII + Smash Bros backup could seriously threaten 1997 imo.

transience posted...

or 06 getting the wii/ps3, or 1989 getting its trifecta

the console argument has been the worst argument this contest.

Why are you lumping it under one umbrella "argument"? There aren't many entrants in this contest; it's easy to examine them individually.

The NES was a huge deal in 1985 (though not big enough to reverse a tripling).
The SNES was a huge deal in 91.
The N64 was a huge deal in 96.

Apart from the Wii (which hasn't aged well), I'm not sure if there are any consoles that were that hyped in their launch year. I think the voters would have recognized that, which is why I feel the SNES is a much bigger deal for 91 than the PS1 would have been for 95.
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Maybe I'll submit Crystal for 2001....
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squexa posted...

If we're talking about putting years at their strongest and allowing consoles, why not allow rereleases? Don't see why we can't allow, say, 1999 to have Pokemon Yellow since it is a distinct game from Red/Blue.

1999 with Pokemon Yellow as its lead and Final Fantasy VIII + Smash Bros backup could seriously threaten 1997 imo.

Sure, but I'm trying to examine this within the rule constraints that SBAllen gave us at the start of the contest. It was pretty clear that re-releases (apart from full-fledged remakes like, well, REMake) would not be allowed, while consoles would be. Consoles were mentioned with enough frequency that people logically assumed they'd be a big part of this contest. They were almost invisible.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

squexa posted...

If we're talking about putting years at their strongest and allowing consoles, why not allow rereleases? Don't see why we can't allow, say, 1999 to have Pokemon Yellow since it is a distinct game from Red/Blue.

1999 with Pokemon Yellow as its lead and Final Fantasy VIII + Smash Bros backup could seriously threaten 1997 imo.

Sure, but I'm trying to examine this within the rule constraints that SBAllen gave us at the start of the contest. It was pretty clear that re-releases (apart from full-fledged remakes like, well, REMake) would not be allowed, while consoles would be. Consoles were mentioned with enough frequency that people logically assumed they'd be a big part of this contest. They were almost invisible.

Did Allen explicitly ban rereleases and explicitly allow consoles? I'm not doubting you. I just can't remember.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

transience posted...

or 06 getting the wii/ps3, or 1989 getting its trifecta

the console argument has been the worst argument this contest.

Why are you lumping it under one umbrella "argument"? There aren't many entrants in this contest; it's easy to examine them individually.

The NES was a huge deal in 1985 (though not big enough to reverse a tripling).
The SNES was a huge deal in 91.
The N64 was a huge deal in 96.

Apart from the Wii (which hasn't aged well), I'm not sure if there are any consoles that were that hyped in their launch year. I think the voters would have recognized that, which is why I feel the SNES is a much bigger deal for 91 than the PS1 would have been for 95.

I question whether the voters would have recognized which console had good launch titles. I don't think they would have.

Having the launch games in the pic would be the same effect. But I don't think "this console had killer apps at launch" would be a factor otherwise.

transience posted...

or 06 getting the wii/ps3, or 1989 getting its trifecta

the console argument has been the worst argument this contest.

Yeah this. No one gives a shit when a console comes out. It's about games.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

transience posted...

or 06 getting the wii/ps3, or 1989 getting its trifecta

the console argument has been the worst argument this contest.

Why are you lumping it under one umbrella "argument"? There aren't many entrants in this contest; it's easy to examine them individually.

The NES was a huge deal in 1985 (though not big enough to reverse a tripling).
The SNES was a huge deal in 91.
The N64 was a huge deal in 96.

Apart from the Wii (which hasn't aged well), I'm not sure if there are any consoles that were that hyped in their launch year. I think the voters would have recognized that, which is why I feel the SNES is a much bigger deal for 91 than the PS1 would have been for 95.

It's about games. Look at the game snes launched with. Mario world. Look at what ps1 launched with. Friggin RIIDGE RACERR

I'm sure the ps1 launch would have meant more if it launched with final fantasy VII.
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squexa posted...

If we're talking about putting years at their strongest and allowing consoles, why not allow rereleases? Don't see why we can't allow, say, 1999 to have Pokemon Yellow since it is a distinct game from Red/Blue.

1999 with Pokemon Yellow as its lead and Final Fantasy VIII + Smash Bros backup could seriously threaten 1997 imo.

Of course it couldn't. But it wouldn't have got blown away.

99 is fairly weak let's be real. Though it did have donkey Kong 64
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