Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1274

(+) Yeah! (+)

Enjoy the last good match of the contest, folks!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages
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Save us 2001
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hmmm


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Last good match until the finals, you mean?
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redrocket_pub posted...

Last good match until the finals, you mean?

that'd be nice
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spoilers Jeff living with you and voting from your home disqualifies you :(
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okay, I thought way too much about trends and came to the conclusion that this match should be pretty flat. 2011 is a year that would probably suck early - check out 06/11 - and 91 didn't exactly light it up vs. 02 after the early vote. 1994 just started super high and therefore fell a lot more drastically in percentage.

the only thing making me pause is the lack of Mega Man X (argh) and that Sonic 1 gets top billing overnight while 94's game is last.
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GranzonEx posted...

spoilers Jeff living with you and voting from your home disqualifies you :(

yeah that's my concern
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why hello there night vote
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Yeah, just looking at the games should tell you there shouldn't be much trend variation here. Of course, it may end up close enough that such a minute difference might decide the match.

Or not, if 1994 wants to just shoot up now.
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so im still relatively new to this high level of analysis of these contests, what is considered an insurmountable lead in terms of votes? 200? what's the highest non rally comeback
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I don't think there's been a comeback of more than 100 votes yet.

but years aren't exactly trend-y things given how varied they are
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actually I think this is already a bigger lead than any comeback we've seen this year

what a contest
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time to make history
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Well if you assume there's going to be 20000 total votes and that the people voting now are representative of the entire day, you need

*calculates*

about ~1550 votes to be 90% confident that the current results are within 2% of their final total. Since they are further than that apart you can call the match now with about 90% confidence.

95% confidence will come around ~2100 votes and 99% confidence will come around 3500.
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I don't think a comeback on the level of Sonic vs. Crono is happening any time soon.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

I don't think a comeback on the level of Sonic vs. Crono is happening any time soon.

still one of the greatest matches ever

my annual ridiculous Sonic upset pick finally paid off
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yeah I'm feeling good enough to go to bed here

go FF6, save the night
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just need FFVI to bleed like Kefka used to do back in the day
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LeonhartFour posted...

just need FFVI to bleed like Kefka used to do back in the day

Lettuce doesn't bleed.
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lettuce definitely did plenty of bleeding in its day
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Updated Top 10

Top 10 Most Popular Polls
1. 2001 vs. 1995 – Round 3 – 19489
2. 1997 vs. 1996 – Round 3 – 19363
3. 1994 vs. 2004 – Round 1 – 17441
4. 1998 vs. 1993 – Round 1 – 17249
5. 2002 vs. 2010 – Round 1 – 17086
6. 1991 vs. 1988 – Round 1 – 16964
7. 2011 vs. 2006 – Round 1 – 16884
8. 1992 vs. 2016 – Round 1 – 16879
9. 1987 vs. 1985 – Round 1 – 16868
10. 1995 vs. 1986 – Round 1 – 16815

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes
1. 1995 – Round 1 – 14966
2. 1991 – Round 1 – 14850
3. 1998 – Round 1 – 14822
4. 2001 – Round 1 – 13966
5. 1996 – Round 1 – 13583
6. 1997 – Round 3 – 13389
7. 2009 – Wildcard – 12782
8. 1987 – Round 1 – 12549
9. 1997 – Round 1 – 12363
10. 2005 – Wildcard – 12343

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. 2003 vs. 2005 – Round 2 – 27.77%
2. 1994 vs. 2011 – Round 2 – 35.74%
3. 2001 vs. 1995 – Round 3 – 36.25%
4. 2005 vs. 2015 – Round 1 – 40.10%
5. 1996 vs. 2000 – Round 2 – 46.81%
6. 1994 vs. 2004 – Round 1 – 49.15%
7. 1997 vs. 1996 – Round 3 – 49.41%
8. 2003 vs. 2013 – Round 1 – 50.17%
9. 1991 vs. 2002 – Round 2 – 52.24%
10. 2011 vs. 2006 – Round 1 – 52.93%
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Hmm
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Maybe if 94 wins, I'll figure out a way to get Lettuce Kefka in next round's match pic.
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looks like this one is over baby


199 motherfucking 4!
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100 vote barrier broken.

If there is a successful comeback after being down by more than 100 votes, it will have to occur in this match as the remaining 3 matches before the final aren't going to be in question here.
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ending the Power Hour with a cut

I'll take that as a good sign
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Oof, gg

Really would love to know how this contest would have played it if Sailor Bacon had made the match pictures representative of the 'examples' he provided on the bracket entry form. I know for a fact I'm not alone in basing my bracket on what was shown there, and I would be damn near perfect right now if he hadn't pulled the rug out from under us.
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welp

goodnight sweet prince
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don't toy with my feelings like this 1991
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91s all like, I'm just going to stall here, but too lazy to do a real cut.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Oof, gg

Really would love to know how this contest would have played it if Sailor Bacon had made the match pictures representative of the 'examples' he provided on the bracket entry form. I know for a fact I'm not alone in basing my bracket on what was shown there, and I would be damn near perfect right now if he hadn't pulled the rug out from under us.

lol at the amount of times ive heard this said throughout this contest
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hey that's a decent cut

hopefully this will still be close when I wake up
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After the performance 1995 put up on 2001, it is hard to deny that pictures matter a lot. Combine that with a close match and it leaves open the question of which entry would win if both side had their best picture.
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That's the thing though - if you want to give each entrant its "best picture," it's almost impossible to be fair. To be fair to a year like 2001, you need to show that it has something like 15 awesome/historic games. To be fair to 1991, you need to highlight the SNES significantly.

It's just impossible to do it in a way that captures the importance of every year because every year is so different. I mean shit, 2006 should have rightfully had E3 somewhere in the spotlight.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

That's the thing though - if you want to give each entrant its "best picture," it's almost impossible to be fair. To be fair to a year like 2001, you need to show that it has something like 15 awesome/historic games. To be fair to 1991, you need to highlight the SNES significantly.

It's just impossible to do it in a way that captures the importance of every year because every year is so different. I mean shit, 2006 should have rightfully had E3 somewhere in the spotlight.

I don't think it's unreasonable to ask that every year has the equivalent of what 1997 got.

It had the first line with it's top 2, the second line with it's third and fourth, the third having the fifth and probably it's best diversity pick avaiable, and two whatevers in the bottom.
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I can agree that getting it absolutely perfect isn't really feasible. But the closer you get to perfect (in a non-lopsided way), the less room there is for saying a losing year should have won. Like I don't think games 9-15 will really help 2001 much even if they could get on the match picture in some way.
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If 1994 holds its percentage, I'm not really sure you can blame 1991's loss on the match pictures. FF4 being in slot 4 is bad but 1994 is missing MMX altogether. If you move FF4 to slot 1 or 2 but add MMX as a slot 2 game for 1994, I'm not sure 1991 turns this around.
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Oh hey I'm back on the leaderboard and this time I'm here to stay unless 2001 > 1997 happens.
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This contest sucks.
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Getting killed by betting on the year I was born. The irony.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Getting killed by betting on the year I was born. The irony.

I bet on an upset that would have occurred on my 30th birthday. (Instead, I got eliminated on my birthday. Ha.)
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this isn't over. the fun starts real soon.
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Why in the pictures it says FF 3? I know this site is American but I am sure everyone knows that it is FF 6.
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hmmm, maybe Europe slowed 94 down. the next few minutes should tell us if 91 has a shot.
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yeah, 94 has this. 94 most likely wins the evening vote so it's up to 91 to make some progress during the day - and it's just not. most likely 91 just stalls during the overnight/Europe hours, kinda like 2000.
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Ugh, I backed the wrong horse in '91 on this one. There goes any chance I had at prize monies.
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transience posted...

I don't think there's been a comeback of more than 100 votes yet.

but years aren't exactly trend-y things given how varied they are

Pretty sure the highest is 56 votes - 2011 vs 2006.
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So close. Oh well.
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