Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1272

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yuri_LowelI posted...

squexa posted...

So how strong do you guys think '92 is. The year doesn't have much depth but ALttP is one of the best anchors you have hope for and SMK (almost beat Super Metroid in 2009) is a great second fiddle. How does '92 compare against the other strong SNES years ('91, '94, '95) and overall.

Well it beats 95 and 91 though 95 and 92 are about on the same level probably. Not sure about 94 as that has two legitimate strong games in ff6 and super metroid. 95 92 and 91 have one elite tier game each with a bunch of midcarders and fodders. It's why 97 is in trouble as well becuase it only has ff7 carrying it. 2001 and 98 have several top tier or top 10-20strength games.

You're so confident it beats 1991? I'm not too sure about that. It's also not impossible 1995 beats it.

creativename posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

squexa posted...

So how strong do you guys think '92 is. The year doesn't have much depth but ALttP is one of the best anchors you have hope for and SMK (almost beat Super Metroid in 2009) is a great second fiddle. How does '92 compare against the other strong SNES years ('91, '94, '95) and overall.

Well it beats 95 and 91 though 95 and 92 are about on the same level probably. Not sure about 94 as that has two legitimate strong games in ff6 and super metroid. 95 92 and 91 have one elite tier game each with a bunch of midcarders and fodders. It's why 97 is in trouble as well becuase it only has ff7 carrying it. 2001 and 98 have several top tier or top 10-20strength games.

You're so confident it beats 1991? I'm not too sure about that. It's also not impossible 1995 beats it.

91 and 92 for me are identical. Lttp is stronger than world and would sff it a little. That's my reasoning.

95 looked terrible against 87.

TBH they could all be of similar strength indirectly but I would pick 92 over them.
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creativename posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

squexa posted...

So how strong do you guys think '92 is. The year doesn't have much depth but ALttP is one of the best anchors you have hope for and SMK (almost beat Super Metroid in 2009) is a great second fiddle. How does '92 compare against the other strong SNES years ('91, '94, '95) and overall.

Well it beats 95 and 91 though 95 and 92 are about on the same level probably. Not sure about 94 as that has two legitimate strong games in ff6 and super metroid. 95 92 and 91 have one elite tier game each with a bunch of midcarders and fodders. It's why 97 is in trouble as well becuase it only has ff7 carrying it. 2001 and 98 have several top tier or top 10-20strength games.

You're so confident it beats 1991? I'm not too sure about that. It's also not impossible 1995 beats it.

Yeah, '92 might actually be the strongest SNES year. I feel like people are underestimating ALttP for some reason but it should still be a top 5 game on the site. Under optimal pictures, '92 has Sonic 2 and Mortal Kombat as well.

'92
A Link to the Past
Super Mario Kart
Sonic 2
Mortal Kombat

Possibly the strongest SNES year imo.

I could have sworn that 2005 was the Guru favorite. Man...
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When making my own bracket I voted 1996 as the winner because of Pokémon, but in this contest the date is (logically) set to 1998. Eh, who knows.

I don't really take these things seriously anyway (and I don't think anyone should), mostly I just like voting for stuff and the occasional time when I am really surprised by the result :)
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Thanks B8 for convincig me to change to 2003 in the last minute!

I'm pretty sure I picked 03 because it is closer to 1998.
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and with that my interest in this contest vanishes.Hopefully we get a character battle next time.
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I put 2005 because I thought it was the guru favorite!
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Wind Waker carrying '03...well remember not to pick RE4 or SOTC in a debated match again.

Would WW get 56% on RE4 in a games contest match? Probably would, I shudder at the thought.
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I chose 2003 because of KoToR. Nothing in 2005 compares with that.

I also believed in SotC
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UltimaterializerX posted...

I picked 2003. I remember thinking "RE4 isn't strong enough to carry a year and 2003 has a Zelda".

This was my rationale for backing '03 as well. Good choice!
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I really don't understand why I picked 2003 > 2015. If 2015 had enough support to bear 2005 it shoukd also beat 2003.

Then again my bracket sucks anyway since I forgot to pick a winner of 95/87.
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I appreciate the Ultima love
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Rip leaderboard stay, much shorter visit than during BGE 2015.

No regrets, RE4>2003, I blame rotate job.
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Safer_777 posted...

I could have sworn that 2005 was the Guru favorite. Man...

How early did you get your bracket in? 05 was the Guru fav early on, but 03 became it later. Figured it made for a decent upset pick anyways. There goes bracket.

FYI: I have the same bracket as you so I was rooting for you to take the Guru lol
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After yesterdays' matches, does 91 still have a chance against 94
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foxhead84 posted...

After yesterdays' matches, does 91 still have a chance against 94

I think everyone (or almost everyone) considers 94 the favorite, but I still give 91 a realistic shot because it'll finally have the SNES in one of its match pics. No clue how consoles may affect things until we actually see them up there.
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Every contest I overestimate RE4. It's one of my favorite games of all time, I can't help it!
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BloodlustSweden posted...

When making my own bracket I voted 1996 as the winner because of Pokémon, but in this contest the date is (logically) set to 1998. Eh, who knows.

I don't really take these things seriously anyway (and I don't think anyone should), mostly I just like voting for stuff and the occasional time when I am really surprised by the result :)

This is the stats topic. Contests are serious business here!

foxhead84 posted...

After yesterdays' matches, does 91 still have a chance against 94

It appears 1994 is the Oracle favorite, but most have the match very close. And 1991 has some support. 1991 winning wouldn't be a big shock.

Link to the Past is better than Ocarina of Time.
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Revelation34 posted...

Link to the Past is better than Ocarina of Time.

A lot of people will agree. However 98 I still light years ahead of 92.
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Revelation34 posted...

Link to the Past is better than Ocarina of Time.

Amen
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so 2005/2013 is 51/49, huh?
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transcience posted...

so 2005/2013 is 51/49, huh?

Here are the adjusted 2015 stats from the pictures

2013
Grand Theft Auto V – 29.29% (2015)
The Last of Us – 27.36% (2015)
BioShock Infinite – 24.49% (2015)
Fire Emblem: Awakening – 22.89% (2015)

2005
God of War
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 23.32% (2015)
Resident Evil 4 – 33.17% (2015)
Shadow of the Colossus – 30.17% (2015)

God of War's 2010 value is likely overrated due to Fallout 3's overperformance against Brawl. If you keep it constant with other games from that quarter it falls to the 25-27% region though given Kratos' 2013 performance I'd argue the game is a bit weaker.

In a fair fight 2005 looks like it would get around the mid-50s against 2013. If you throw in the order of the picture and the fact that 2013 wins the first two match-ups the match likely ends up closer.
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Do you think 98 would have still taken down 92 if Pokemon was in 96 where it belongs?

Giant2005 posted...

Do you think 98 would have still taken down 92 if Pokemon was in 96 where it belongs?

Yes, and 98 would probably still be favored to win the contest. It was a really loaded year.
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Giant2005 posted...

Do you think 98 would have still taken down 92 if Pokemon was in 96 where it belongs?

If you take out OoT and left Pokemon in 98 it would still take out 92 and probably be one of the fav to win it though it would be debatable. People consider Pokemon RBY the 2nd strongest game on this site while others say it's either FF7 or CT. I personally think RBY would beat FF7 and CT 1v1. It's irrelevant as OoT is also a 98 game and that is the obvious and clear #1 game on this site by some distance not including shitty rallies and outside influence.

And 98 is by far the best year in gaming in terms of quality and quantity. So I have no issues of it winning.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Giant2005 posted...

Do you think 98 would have still taken down 92 if Pokemon was in 96 where it belongs?

Yes, and 98 would probably still be favored to win the contest. It was a really loaded year.

But is that just a knee-jerk reaction?
ALttP > OoT
Ultima Vii > Baldur's Gate
Wolfenstein 3D > Half-Life
Virtua Racing > Gran Turismo
Alone in the Dark > Resident Evil 2
Dune 2 > Age of Empires

And those are just the direct comparisons. What is left?
Mega Man 4 and 5, Final Fantasy 5, Kirby, Ecco, Super Mario Kart, Super Mario Land 2, Mortal Kombat, Sonic 2, Street Fighter 2 vs MGS, Yoshi, Starcraft, 1080 Snowboarding, Unreal, Banjo-Kazooie, Spyro, NFS 3, FO 2, Grim Fandango, Oddworld

Unless I am forgetting something big about 98, I just don't really see how it would compete with 92 if Pokemon was put in its original release year of 96. Although I could see an argument for 1080 Snowboarding bringing 98 out ahead - 92 really didn't have any sports games to offer.

Giant2005 posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Giant2005 posted...

Do you think 98 would have still taken down 92 if Pokemon was in 96 where it belongs?

Yes, and 98 would probably still be favored to win the contest. It was a really loaded year.

But is that just a knee-jerk reaction?
ALttP > OoT
Ultima Vii > Baldur's Gate
Wolfenstein 3D > Half-Life
Virtua Racing > Gran Turismo
Alone in the Dark > Resident Evil 2
Dune 2 > Age of Empires

And those are just the direct comparisons. What is left?
Mega Man 4 and 5, Final Fantasy 5, Kirby, Ecco, Super Mario Kart, Super Mario Land 2, Mortal Kombat, Sonic 2, Street Fighter 2 vs MGS, Yoshi, Starcraft, 1080 Snowboarding, Unreal, Banjo-Kazooie, Spyro, NFS 3, FO 2, Grim Fandango, Oddworld

Unless I am forgetting something big about 98, I just don't really see how it would compete with 92 if Pokemon was put in its original release year of 96. Although I could see an argument for 1080 Snowboarding bringing 98 out ahead - 92 really didn't have any sports games to offer.

You're quoting games from 1992 that no one on this site gives a crap about
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UltimaterializerX posted...

yoblazer made a great point, as usual (love you bro). Melee is the only game to ever beat Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy 7 1v1. LOL x-stats would have never predicted how the 2015 contest played out.

Is that excluding OoT, or does the 2009 bonus match not count?
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I don't think OoT and CT have ever been in the same poll of any kind. Definitely not a 1v1 match.
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Not_Wylvane posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

yoblazer made a great point, as usual (love you bro). Melee is the only game to ever beat Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy 7 1v1. LOL x-stats would have never predicted how the 2015 contest played out.

Is that excluding OoT, or does the 2009 bonus match not count?

OoT has never had a match against Chrono Trigger.
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Giant2005 posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Giant2005 posted...

Do you think 98 would have still taken down 92 if Pokemon was in 96 where it belongs?

Yes, and 98 would probably still be favored to win the contest. It was a really loaded year.

But is that just a knee-jerk reaction?
ALttP > OoT
Ultima Vii > Baldur's Gate
Wolfenstein 3D > Half-Life
Virtua Racing > Gran Turismo
Alone in the Dark > Resident Evil 2
Dune 2 > Age of Empires

And those are just the direct comparisons. What is left?
Mega Man 4 and 5, Final Fantasy 5, Kirby, Ecco, Super Mario Kart, Super Mario Land 2, Mortal Kombat, Sonic 2, Street Fighter 2 vs MGS, Yoshi, Starcraft, 1080 Snowboarding, Unreal, Banjo-Kazooie, Spyro, NFS 3, FO 2, Grim Fandango, Oddworld

Unless I am forgetting something big about 98, I just don't really see how it would compete with 92 if Pokemon was put in its original release year of 96. Although I could see an argument for 1080 Snowboarding bringing 98 out ahead - 92 really didn't have any sports games to offer.

What are you talking about? your opinion or Actual Gfaqs Contest?

If it's the former then fine thats your opinion. If it's the latter you must have been born yesterday or something.

If you had a poll 1992 vs OoT. OoT would win. on it's own. So I dont' see what you're getting at.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I don't think OoT and CT have ever been in the same poll of any kind. Definitely not a 1v1 match.

Well that would have been the Final two years ago if the Tumblr trannies didn't ruin it.

NowItsAngeTime posted...

Giant2005 posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Giant2005 posted...

Do you think 98 would have still taken down 92 if Pokemon was in 96 where it belongs?

Yes, and 98 would probably still be favored to win the contest. It was a really loaded year.

But is that just a knee-jerk reaction?
ALttP > OoT
Ultima Vii > Baldur's Gate
Wolfenstein 3D > Half-Life
Virtua Racing > Gran Turismo
Alone in the Dark > Resident Evil 2
Dune 2 > Age of Empires

And those are just the direct comparisons. What is left?
Mega Man 4 and 5, Final Fantasy 5, Kirby, Ecco, Super Mario Kart, Super Mario Land 2, Mortal Kombat, Sonic 2, Street Fighter 2 vs MGS, Yoshi, Starcraft, 1080 Snowboarding, Unreal, Banjo-Kazooie, Spyro, NFS 3, FO 2, Grim Fandango, Oddworld

Unless I am forgetting something big about 98, I just don't really see how it would compete with 92 if Pokemon was put in its original release year of 96. Although I could see an argument for 1080 Snowboarding bringing 98 out ahead - 92 really didn't have any sports games to offer.

You're quoting games from 1992 that no one on this site gives a crap about

Well I'm not so good at the mind reading thing, so I have no idea what people will give a crap about or not (I'm a little surprised though considering this is a gaming site).
Xo what about 96 then? If it had proper credit for Pokemon, it would take down 98 and fairly easily really:

96: Pokemon, Duke Nukem 3d, Mega Man X3, Civilization 2, Time Crisis, Super Mario RPG, Kirby Super Star, Resident Evil, Metal Slug, Quake, Super Mario 64, Tekken 2, Elder Scrolls 2, Crash Bandicoot, Street Fighter Alpha 2, Red Alert, Destruction Derby 2, Dead or Alive, Killer Instinct Gold, Megaman 8, Diablo, NBA Hangime.

98: Ocarina of Time, Baldur's Gate, Half Life, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil 2, Age of Empires, MGS, Yoshi, Starcraft, 1080 Snowboarding, Unreal, Banjo-Kazooie, Spyro, NFS 3, FO 2, Grim Fandango, Oddworld.

The only X-factor that is stopping it from being a clear-cut victory for 96, is that unlike 92, it doesn't have a clear cut winner up against OoT.

Januzaj_Dragon posted...

Giant2005 posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Giant2005 posted...

Do you think 98 would have still taken down 92 if Pokemon was in 96 where it belongs?

Yes, and 98 would probably still be favored to win the contest. It was a really loaded year.

But is that just a knee-jerk reaction?
ALttP > OoT
Ultima Vii > Baldur's Gate
Wolfenstein 3D > Half-Life
Virtua Racing > Gran Turismo
Alone in the Dark > Resident Evil 2
Dune 2 > Age of Empires

And those are just the direct comparisons. What is left?
Mega Man 4 and 5, Final Fantasy 5, Kirby, Ecco, Super Mario Kart, Super Mario Land 2, Mortal Kombat, Sonic 2, Street Fighter 2 vs MGS, Yoshi, Starcraft, 1080 Snowboarding, Unreal, Banjo-Kazooie, Spyro, NFS 3, FO 2, Grim Fandango, Oddworld

Unless I am forgetting something big about 98, I just don't really see how it would compete with 92 if Pokemon was put in its original release year of 96. Although I could see an argument for 1080 Snowboarding bringing 98 out ahead - 92 really didn't have any sports games to offer.

What are you talking about? your opinion or Actual Gfaqs Contest?

If it's the former then fine thats your opinion. If it's the latter you must have been born yesterday or something.

If you had a poll 1992 vs OoT. OoT would win. on it's own. So I dont' see what you're getting at.

I'm not saying it could hold up in a popularity contest, I am only talking about the actual quality on offer. Sure OoT is a champ when it comes to popularity, but you would have to be insane to think it was a better, or more important game than ALttP.

Giant2005 posted...

Well I'm not so good at the mind reading thing, so I have no idea what people will give a crap about or not (I'm a little surprised though considering this is a gaming site).
Xo what about 96 then? If it had proper credit for Pokemon, it would take down 98 and fairly easily really:

96: Pokemon, Duke Nukem 3d, Mega Man X3, Civilization 2, Time Crisis, Super Mario RPG, Kirby Super Star, Resident Evil, Metal Slug, Quake, Super Mario 64, Tekken 2, Elder Scrolls 2, Crash Bandicoot, Street Fighter Alpha 2, Red Alert, Destruction Derby 2, Dead or Alive, Killer Instinct Gold, Megaman 8, Diablo, NBA Hangime.

98: Ocarina of Time, Baldur's Gate, Half Life, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil 2, Age of Empires, MGS, Yoshi, Starcraft, 1080 Snowboarding, Unreal, Banjo-Kazooie, Spyro, NFS 3, FO 2, Grim Fandango, Oddworld.

The only X-factor that is stopping it from being a clear-cut victory for 96, is that unlike 92, it doesn't have a clear cut winner up against OoT.

First, outside of a handful of games GameFAQs doesn't care about PC exclusives. Second the average voter isn't be able to rattle off 10+ games from each year, they barely even make it to the end of the picture rotation.

1998 without one of OoT or Pokemon RBY would probably still win excluding picture sabotage. Maybe 2001 could put up a fight.
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charmander6000 posted...

Giant2005 posted...

Well I'm not so good at the mind reading thing, so I have no idea what people will give a crap about or not (I'm a little surprised though considering this is a gaming site).
Xo what about 96 then? If it had proper credit for Pokemon, it would take down 98 and fairly easily really:

96: Pokemon, Duke Nukem 3d, Mega Man X3, Civilization 2, Time Crisis, Super Mario RPG, Kirby Super Star, Resident Evil, Metal Slug, Quake, Super Mario 64, Tekken 2, Elder Scrolls 2, Crash Bandicoot, Street Fighter Alpha 2, Red Alert, Destruction Derby 2, Dead or Alive, Killer Instinct Gold, Megaman 8, Diablo, NBA Hangime.

98: Ocarina of Time, Baldur's Gate, Half Life, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil 2, Age of Empires, MGS, Yoshi, Starcraft, 1080 Snowboarding, Unreal, Banjo-Kazooie, Spyro, NFS 3, FO 2, Grim Fandango, Oddworld.

The only X-factor that is stopping it from being a clear-cut victory for 96, is that unlike 92, it doesn't have a clear cut winner up against OoT.

First, outside of a handful of games GameFAQs doesn't care about PC exclusives. Second the average voter isn't be able to rattle off 10+ games from each year, they barely even make it to the end of the picture rotation.

1998 without one of OoT or Pokemon RBY would probably still win excluding picture sabotage. Maybe 2001 could put up a fight.

I'm talking which is the better year of gaming, not which is likely to get the most votes.

Giant2005 posted...

I'm talking which is the better year of gaming, not which is likely to get the most votes.

But apart from being pretty subjective, that's also pretty irrelevant regarding GameFAQs contest predictions.
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Wasn't there a Chrono Trigger rally in 2015 or something? I remember people from the JRPG subreddit posting about it and some YouTuber who made a video about the game tweeted about the contest.
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People attempted to rally for it, but that's not really the type of game you can rally for.

UltimaterializerX posted...

LOL x-stats would have never predicted how the 2015 contest played out.

spoilers nobody uses X-Stats to predict everything 100% down the line and nobody thinks they're infallible, even the people who make them (like me)

I go against X-Stat projections all the time

you continue to tilt at windmills when it comes to stats and make irrelevant arguments about them because for some reason if something isn't successful 100% of the time it's worthless
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_SJimW_ posted...

Wasn't there a Chrono Trigger rally in 2015 or something? I remember people from the JRPG subreddit posting about it and some YouTuber who made a video about the game tweeted about the contest.

There was also WhiskeyNickRPGLord promoting an apparently big-ish Chrono Trigger Facebook group. Not sure how big that was.
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It made no discernible difference.
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Yeah, maybe there was a notable Chrono Trigger rally against Melee, but I find it hard to believe it was present in its first three matches, especially given its vote totals didn't differ too much from other non-rallied matches.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Chrono Trigger looked like our strongest game last year pre rally.

Can you explain to me how you come to this conclusion without using the principles behind the X-Stats? Like, walk me through this one example in detail so maybe I can understand your point better. I'm trying to understand how this fits in with the previous things you've been saying and I just don't get it.
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