Board 8 > Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

Should of went with 55.56% Like I totally planned >.>..Oh well.

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Goemon vs. Dancin' for Greatest Game Rivalry! See below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJrnlFW4IMc

From: AppIekidjosh | #147
ugh the contest is still no surprised ugh rest of the crew bringin me down

scoreboard

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More Guest Sign-ups! - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/61277726




Mario vs. Bowser 70.58% 37989
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik 29.42% 15834
TOTAL VOTES 53823

Mega Man X vs. Zero 52.7% 27259
Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion 47.3% 24462
TOTAL VOTES 51721


Crew Predictions - 50/50

What Happened: Mario crushes Sonic, and the ninjas perform well against X/Zero

Why it Happened: SFF was never out of the question for Mario/Sonic, as we've known that Sonic's fanbase is made up of a lot of Nintendo fans. Sub/Scorp doing well could be attributed to the new Mortal Kombat game and being a more iconic mainstream rivalry.

What will Happen: MMX's fanbase is also made up of a lot of Nintendo fans so...



Crew Prediction Challenge - easy day

Moltar - 50
Leon - 50
Guest - 47
Kleenex - 46
Dante - 46
AKJ - 46
Lopen - 44



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for Mario/Bowser, Dante gets the point for X/Zero

Leon - 10
Lopen - 9
Moltar - 8
Kleenex - 7.5
Guest - 7 (Luster: 2, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1, Korayashi: 1, GfK: 1, Kotetsu: 1)
AKJ - 4.5
Dante - 4

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Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/61219380
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

nothing like being average

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Dante said that the match would be 60-40 no matter who wins.And man was he right...

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(1) Samus Aran/Ridley vs. (7) Big Boss/The Boss

(R1) Samus Aran/Ridley: 80.64% vs. The Kid/The Guy
(R2) Samus Aran/Ridley: 60.79% vs. Terra Branford/Kefka Palazzo

(R1) Big Boss/The Boss: 59.64% vs. Tidus/Jecht
(R2) Big Boss/The Boss: 56.6% vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker

I feel oddly confident in Samus, given that most people are a bit worried about this match. From what I can remember, Big Boss had a Naked Snake picture in R1 and still couldn't outdo Samus/Ridley on Terra/Kefka against Tidus/Jecht, despite having them in the day. It's possible that Tidus/Jecht are the stronger of the pair, but I lean towards them being about equal, or the advantage lying with Terra/Kefka, after CBVIII.

In round 2 the Bosses got melty artwork and did not look good whatsoever against Chris/Wesker. If you project them through onto Dan/Sagat they're expected to score less than Dante/Vergil did against Sol/Ky. Dan/Sagat might be stronger than Sol/Ky, but I'd be surprised if it was by very much, and I reckon Samus/Ridley could deal with that sort of pairing with room to spare. That's not to mention that other RE pairings have been unmemorable this contest.

This match is still going to be fairly close, especially if Big Boss gets a Naked Snake picture. Remember that he scored 37% direct against Mario with it in CBVIII - and rivalry factor surely grants him a bigger boost here. Won't see me banking, though!

Edit: picture doesn't seem to give a huge advantage to either side, but Big Boss is definitely identifiable as the guy you play as in MGS3. I'll stick with something in the low 50s.

Samus Aran vs. Ridley with 54.1% of the vote.

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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)

crap, I just remembered that I'm the guest for this match
I'll just write something quickly and post it after Moltar posts the others

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Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 18th ~Today's prediction: Trainers - 52.95%

Southeast Division: Round 3 - Match 52 – (1) Samus/Ridley vs. (2) Big Boss/The Boss

Moltar’s Analysis

Samus/Ridley
Round 1 - 80.64% vs. Kid/Guy
Round 2 - 60.79% vs. Terra/Kefka

Not a good showing for Metroid

Big Boss/The Boss
Round 1 - 59.64% vs. Tidus/Jecht
Round 2 - 56.60% vs. Chris/Wesker

Same here for The Bosses

Terra/Kefka vs. Tidus/Jecht, who ya got? In this format, I think the FF6 pair wins that because this site loves old-ass rivalries. Plus, we know that Terra and Kefka are stronger now than they were pre-2010.

The Bosses also haven’t really done much to make themselves seem like a threat here. That performance against Chris/Wesker wasn’t impressive at all.

So yeah, give me Samus here. Her and Ridley haven’t looked great, but they didn’t really need to since it’s a Noble Nine character vs non-Noble Nine. The Bosses were the ones than needed to look strong enough to challenge Metroid, and I believe they failed to do that.

Moltar’s Bracket: Samus/Ridley

Moltar’s Prediction: Samus/Ridley - 57%



Lopen’s Analysis

Leonhart might be going for this, but upsets don't happen. I wanna think there's a chance of this one going down based on previous rounds, but if only I'd remembered my own advice... if you think an upset is possible, here's what you do! Who you gonna call?

Lopen's prediction:
Samus vs Ridley with 60.40%



Leon’s Analysis

I’m kind of in “Eh, why not who cares” mode after losing my perfect everything on today’s match. So even though I think Samus probably wins without too much trouble, I’m going to honor my bracket and my heart and support Big Boss/The Boss to win here because I can. I’m not going to try to justify it with some roundabout reasoning, but I think it’ll be close one way or the other because I think Bosses beat Terra/Kefka fairly easily.



Leonhart’s Prediction: Big Boss vs. The Boss with 50.33%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I feel like people are selling Samus a bit shorter than they probably should. Ridley is definitely an anchor - one that is probably TOO BIG to allow her to do anything significant this contest - but not one that's going to cause her to lose to the Bosses. Terra and Kefka aren't as weak as people seem to be making out - nearly 80% blowouts are nothing to scoff at, even if they are against Vyse. That being said, the Bosses should end up looking pretty good here, even though I don't think they stand much of a chance at winning the match.

Kleenex's Prediction: Samus vs. Ridley with 56.24%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

So here's the dealio, I've been awake for almost 40 hours and if I try to look at numbers I will literally fall asleep in my chair. I can't do this analysis thing tonight so instead look back at how I was awesome with my Trainers pick (even if I was like 4 points off lmao)

AKJ predix Samus and Ridley with like 53.35%



Crew Consensus: Leon is taking the upset, but everyone else is going with Samus/Ridley

Big Boss makes the impossible possible

here we go

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Guest: GrapefruitKing
I would’ve loved to take the Bosses here, especially considering the fact that it’s probably the best rivalry in the whole contest. Unfortunately, they would’ve needed far more impressive wins against Tidus/Jecht and especially Chris/Wesker for them to have any chance against Samus. Even though her rivalry isn’t really strong and she’s been disappointing in this contest so far, she’s still frickin’ Samus and that’s gonna be enough to beat the Bosses, unfortunately. Yes, 60% on Terra/Kefka is pretty bleh, but the FF6 characters haven’t stopped being impressive in every match they’ve been in in the last two contests.

At least Samus will get her ass kicked, HARD, by the pkmn trainers next round. As for % in this match, let’s go with something pretty safe... I don’t think anything crazy will happen in this match. If the Bosses end up being weaker than Terra/Kefka ... I just... Give up on this contest

GrapefruitKing’s surprisingly accurate prediction: Samus/Ridley with 54.96%

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Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 18th ~Today's prediction: Trainers - 52.95%

From: GrapefruitKing | #160
pkmn trainers

Pikmin trainers?

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Samus vs Big Boss

I always knew this was going to be the #1 match of the Contest for me, the one that would make or break my bracket and validate all the Rivalry Matters© talk I've been spewing the past month plus. Now the day has arrived and all of the above is true, but unfortunately-

Well first let me say that Samus has not looked anything like her usual Noble Nine self (as I expected), I'd take Team Tidus to keep it pretty close with Team Kefka in a 24 hour match, we vastly underestimated Chris/Wesker, and we're still underestimating how much melty art holds MGS back. Taking all those things into account, this is going to be a fairly close match. But as for being able to pull the trigger on the upset...

Nah, I can't quite do it. Not after what Nintendo has shown us in the last matchups featuring Mario and Link and now these Trainers. To be clear, I don't think Metroid has nearly the iconic or nostalgic pull of those series, and I'm still confident that Ridley himself is nothing but dead weight, and I do think this is a much better picture for the Bosses that should let them perform at close to full strength. But in the end it seems that in this format you're a fool to bet against the more established rivalry with the Nintendo backing, and so far I haven't sensed the return of that "anti-samenessFAQs" mood that led to wacky results at the end of the past few brackets. So while I have faith in Boss to make a good showing of it here, I've ultimately got to side with

Samus - 50.89%

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Ngamer more like cowardamer

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I for one missed Dante's scintillating analysis and sagacious predictions

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Call me numbers.

Or maybe instead of sagacious I should call them cagacious, ohoho.

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Call me numbers.

hey Samus is keeping this close to my percentage, I'm on a roll

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(1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (2) Mega Man/Dr. Wily

(R1) Link/Ganondorf: 85.3% vs. Arthas/Illidan
(R2) Link/Ganondorf: 83.69% vs. Amaterasu/Orochi

(R1) Mega Man/Dr. Wily: 77.48% vs. Banjo/Gruntilda
(R2) Mega Man/Dr. Wily: 66.11% vs. Zidane Tribal/Kuja

There's been an undercurrent to these first few rounds that would've, I think, been a lot more talked about it we didn't know Link crushes Mario heads up. Mario opened up by breaking 85% against Earthworm Jim, and Link, try as he might, couldn't outdo that number against Arthas/Illidan. Mario comes out in round two and quadruples Ike, surely putting up the highest number two rounds in a row. Not so, because Link comes back with an utterly crazy number against Amaterasu. Mario changes tack, and beats Sonic even more heavily than Link managed. So Link drags out another Noble Niner and... you can see where this is going.

Link/Ganondorf have looked impregnable through two rounds, and I don't think that will change here. If anything, I suspect this might be their most jaw-dropping performance of the whole tournament. Mega Man/Wily failed to double Zidane/Kuja, who I doubt are much stronger than Zidane individually, and I don't think Mega Man in general has looked as solid this contest as last time. Rivalry factor is also on the Zelda team's side here, so expect something noticeably higher than the 67.28% Link put on Mega Man X in CBVIII.

I want to over-estimate Link at least once, so I can at least feel like there is perhaps a chance the semi-finals and final could get interesting, so I'm going to go for close to a tripling here.

Link vs. Ganondorf with 74.75% of the vote.

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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)

South Division: Round 3 - Match 53 – (1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (2) Mega Man/Dr. Wily

Moltar’s Analysis

Link/Ganondorf
Round 1 - 85.30% vs. Arthas/Illidan
Round 2 - 83.69% vs. Amaterasu/Orochi

Quintuplings for everyone!

Mega Man/Dr. Wily
Round 1 - 77.48% vs. Banjo/Gruntilda
Round 2 - 66.11% vs. Zidane/Kuja

Definitely not as impressive.

Look at Link/MMX, look at LoZ/MMX, even look at Mario/Sonic from a few days ago. That should be enough proof to see that this is going to be a nasty SFF beatdown. I’ll take what Mario did on Sonic a few days ago as a base and then add on a bit since Ganondorf/Anchor are stronger than Mario/Bowser and Sonic/MM is probably around the same.

Moltar’s Bracket: Link/Ganondorf

Moltar’s Prediction: Link/Ganondorf - 74%



Lopen’s Analysis

All robots in violation of the LAW will be sent to be refurbished immediately.

Crazy old men will promptly be taken into custody by the LAW for being in violation of The Robot Upset Prolification Act of 2004. His sentence shall be carried out in the form of 400 characters worth of top 20 characters lists, with at least 100 getting write-ups.

Do not oppose us.

Lopen's prediction:
Link vs Gutter Trash with 80.01%



Leon’s Analysis

Apparently, someone told Link that people were talking about him not winning the contest because other entrants are landing big blowouts.

And neither Mega Man nor Dr. Wily were ever seen again.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 75.25%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Gee I wonder what happens in this match.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3826
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3300
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1778

Yes, I realize that two of those are actually Mega Man X, but whatever. Everything points to a doubling or better. And it's Link, so that probably means better.

Kleenex's Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 72.45%



Dante’s Analysis

Okay, Link versus Megaman. This is a really interesting match on paper, if the paper is shaped like a dragon playing an air guitar while surfing through the flames of hell. Because really, anything on that piece of paper would be pretty interesting. Link steamrolls zzz next

Winner - Lnk/Ganondorf - 72.49%



Guest’s Analysis - Xcarvenger

Link vs. Ganondorf with 74.20%

Now that is outta the way, let me explain to you the two reasons why the LAW will not and cannot be challenged any time soon:

1. Link always wins, so many people who don't like him "leave" the site/stop caring about these polls while people who like him stay/keep voting for Link in these polls.

2. The few who do not fall in the category above and still stay and vote religiously in the polls are doing it for their bracket/battle challenges. And of course to win those, they'd have to predict Link to win it all based on historical results, which means they'll more likely voting for Link when it counts!

That's right, folks, that's also the exact reason why Link gets anti-vote now early on in matches with fodders -- from the few of us who are still here and don't particularly like Link so we knew he's gonna win anyway so we just wanna show how we actually feel about Link. But when it counts, just you watch Link getting his normal NINTENDO POWER HOUR VOTES and kill everyone worse than he ever did in the past (you think Link has overperformed too much already this past two rounds? ha ha ha you haven't seen nothing yet !!). Cloud/Seph/Mario/Pokemon no chance. It will take an organized outside force to break the LAW, but no one cares about GameFAQs anymore anyway LMAO

BONUS REASON: FINAL FANTASY ALWAYS WINS

One last thing: prediction wouldn't be so much fun if attempt to cage someone were not made.
Real prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 75.02%



Crew Consensus: Ganon he come to town

A real time summary of what just happened

<Moltar> post write-up in topic whenever you finish it
<akj> whoops
<akj> how the *expletive deleted* is it after 10
<akj> *expletive deleted* terraria I swear to god

Alright ugh gotta load up gamefaqs man I wonder if I'm still like .01 away in my prediction. Nope I hate you Samus why would you do this to me. Alright what is the next match anyway ugh I don't want to have to put any thought toward this OH MAN YES IT'S JUST A DUMB LINK MATCH! I know, to pad time I'll include a play by play of what happened when Moltar told me to-

and that, as they say, is that.

AKJ predix Link vs Ganon with 65.00%

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man look at all that range

time for the Marvel vs Capcom Factor to



oh, wait...

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<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!

Link vs Mega Man

So to recap, Link destroyed MMX with 71% of the vote last year, which looked great... until Mario smashed Sonic with 71% a few days ago. Now Mario's just a few days away from trying to lay an even worse beatdown on MMX, so Link's got no choice but to bring out the big guns tonight!

There, that's my best attempt at making something interesting out of this no-doubter of a match. Ganon > Wily and Zelda rivalry > MM rivalry ought to ensure something 72 or above in this one, and after that Sonic result people are going nuts and saying Link goes over 75% here... but then again, maybe that's not so nuts after all! 84% on Ammy might be the most amazing result we've seen in years, while 66% on Zidane looks pretty crappy right about now.

This is sure to be brutal, but I'll be a little more conservative and say

Link - 73.41%

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Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 60.04% 35329
Ryu vs. Ken 39.96% 23514
TOTAL VOTES 58843

Samus Aran vs. Ridley 53.47% 27360
Big Boss vs. The Boss 46.53% 23810
TOTAL VOTES 51170


Crew Predictions - 51/52

What Happened: lol crew got a match wrong we suck

Why it Happened: Trainers really are that strong and benefiting from this format even more than a hugely respected rivalry in Ryu/Ken. The Bosses also do well, showing that Samus/Ridley just isn't on the level of the other strong Nintendo rivalries

What will Happen: Trainers are going to SFF Metroid, ugh



Crew Prediction Challenge - one perfect left

Moltar - 52
Leon - 50
Guest - 49
AKJ - 48
Kleenex - 47
Dante - 47
Lopen - 45



Crew Accuracy Challenge - AKJ gets the point for Red/Blue, OKJ gets the point for Samus/Ridley

Leon - 10
Lopen - 9
Moltar - 8
Kleenex - 7.5
Guest - 7 (Luster: 2, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1, Korayashi: 1, GfK: 1, Kotetsu: 1)
AKJ - 6.5
Dante - 4

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Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/61219380
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

From: Master Moltar | #174
What will Happen: Trainers are going to SFF Metroid, ugh

yessss

Crew Accuracy Challenge - AKJ gets the point for Red/Blue, OKJ gets the point for Samus/Ridley

man I wonder if my orangekidjosh account is still alive

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(2) Frog/Magus vs. (4) Alucard/Dracula

(R1) Frog/Magus: 56.13% vs. Raiden/Vamp
(R2) Frog/Magus: 51.51% vs. Chell/GlaDOS

(R1) Alucard/Dracula: 63.23% vs. Commander Shepard/Saren Arterius
(R2) Alucard/Dracula: 56.67% vs. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth

Another match that's raising a lot of upset hype that I'm reasonably confident in. The starting point for this match pre-contest was Alucard beating Magus 58.5%-41.5% in CBVIII - it's been up to the CT team to show why their rivalry means sufficiently more than Alucard's to overthrow that. I don't think they've done that. I could try to excuse one of 56% on Raiden/Vamp and 51% on Chell/GlaDOS, but it feels a bit hopeful that both teams have surprisingly strength.

To put things in perspective, that number on Chell/GlaDOS leaves Frog/Magus projected to get 60.3% against Ness/Giygas. None of the other Smash-based pairings have been worth much and I don't see why Ness/Giygas would be any different. Alucard/Dracula got 63.2% on Shepard/Saren and are projected through Phoenix/Edgeworth to almost exactly the same on Freeman/Breen. I'd expect both of those pairings are worth more than Ness/Giygas since (I'd argue) Freeman and Shepard both outdid Ness last contest, and none of the partners add anything. Even setting them equal gives Alucard/Dracula 53.5%.

Still, I'd love to see Frog and Magus win a division, even if my battle bracket would be going down in flames. It might be the last time CT ever does.

Alucard vs. Dracula with 53.99%

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Glad I rebounded with an ASTOUNDINGLY ACCURATE PREDICTION after missing two straight matches due to blatant fanboyism

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Southwest Division: Round 3 - Match 54 – (4) Alucard/Dracula vs. (2) Frog/Magus

Moltar’s Analysis

Alucard/Dracula
Round 1 - 63.23% vs. Shepard/Saren
Round 2 - 56.67% vs. Phoenix/Edgeworth

Lawyers can’t handle Vampires in the day


Frog/Magus
Round 1 - 56.13% vs. Raiden/Vamp
Round 2 - 51.51% vs. Chell/GlaDOS

Of course CT gets the close matches.

So I don’t know if it’s just perfect battle bracket jitters, but this is the one match left that worries me a lot. I picked Alucard’s team here pre-contest because he beat Magus with 58% in 2010 and that’s about it. The Trainers have shown that 1v1 results aren’t worth much, and Magus being paired with Frog, while Alucard is paired with Dracula, can swing this in the opposite direction.

The good news is that Alucard/Dracula have looked more impressive, putting up good numbers in R1 and then beating the top-seeds of the division easily. Frog/Magus have struggled the entire way, not looking good against MGS and almost losing to Portal. Going off what we’ve seen, Vampires are the statistical favorites here.

Yet it’s Chrono Trigger vs. Castlevania, two older games, and that kind of worries me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see older gamers prefer the classic CT rivalry over the Castlevania rivalry, but that just might be me overanalyzing things.

I’ll stick with The Vampires here, but I don’t feel good about it. Then again, this contest has shown that it’s better to go with the ‘favorite’ in these kinds of situations.

Moltar’s Bracket: Alucard/Dracula

Moltar’s Prediction: Alucard/Dracula - 52%



Lopen’s Analysis

This match was in the air at contest start. But well, long story short, lower thine guard and thourt allowing thy enemy in. Or something. The only vaguely interesting part about this match at this point will be seeing if Magus can outdo Phoenix Wright. Call me crazy but I don't think he will.

Lopen's prediction:
Alucard vs Dracula with 58.88%



Leon’s Analysis

This is one of the few debated matches we’ve had this entire contest, before it or during it, but after their first couple of matches, most people on the board seem to believe those performances favor the Vampires here. You have 63% on Shepard/Saren and 56% on Wright/Edgey vs. 56% on Raiden/Vamp and 51.51% on Chell/GlaDOS.

To me, doing the same on Raiden/Vamp as Alucard did on the Lawyers is probably the most concerning thing for Frog/Magus. While the MGS rivalry might be stronger than we had originally anticipated, I still don’t think I could pull the trigger on them beating Phoenix/Edgeworth. That being said, I still think I’d take Frog/Magus over Phoenix/Edgey themselves, so I think this finishes within 55/45.

If our expectations are somehow off base (and as far as picking winners is concerned, that would be a rarity for this contest), maybe Frog/Magus have a shot, but as it stands, the Vampires are the faves and rightly so. CT’s gradual decline over the course of these contests makes it hard to believe in their ability to pull out THE CLUTCH at the end. Chrono Trigger has blown more close matches than it has won in recent years (Knux/Magus, Crono/Sonic, Crono/Vincent II, Magus/Sandbag, CT vs. Mario 64 twice, and Crono/Missingno vs. Frog/Axel and Crono/Vincent III).

Leonhart’s Prediction: Alucard vs. Dracula with 52.20%

Kleenex’s Analysis

In this humble crew member's opinion, this is the last somewhat debatable match of the contest. It's pretty much smooth sailing from here on out, and you can take that to the bank.

Sadly, despite being the most debatable of what's left, doesn't mean I think it's going to be that debatable. Based on the first two rounds, Alucard should probably be a decent favorite here. I suppose we can't really rule out any kind of Frog shenanigans if this ends up being close, but it has to be close for that to even be considered. I think Alucard takes this fairly comfortably. Prove me wrong, Frog!

Kleenex's Prediction: Alucard vs. Dracula with 54.69%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

I hate this match, this division, and everything else. I don't think frog is that strong, and I hate how strong alucard is. There are several people in this division that deserve to be here more than these two scrubs. I'm at a debate tournament atm and can't look at stats and stuff so guess I'm goin with gut

akj predix alucard vs dracula with 56.78%


Dante’s Analysis

okay heres the deal It's 11 pm and I'm slightly drunk and I just graduated university today and I just don't give a crap about this crap so heres your analysis the first guy in the poll will win a match that will start so amazingly close it will knock lopens socks off, before immediately turning into a dull one sided match which will just ruin his spirit even more

Winner - Whoever's in slot 1 - 57.24%



Crew Consensus: Alucard/Dracula sweep? Oh boy...

Crew Curse? Just the way Chrono Trigger likes it...!

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no Guest no curse tbqh

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Just use Kotetsu or Ngamer's analysis in place of the guest like we usually do whenever the normal guest no shows.

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I had the vampires in my battle pic, but the Crew Curse is imminent, so I'll switch to Frogus.

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.-#Elements of Water#-.

I think Kotetsu's analysis should be used, as he posted his before Ngamer.

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Tied up at work, just going to say % for now, rest later.

Alucard - 52.33%

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Alucard vs Frog

Everything lines up: Alucard > Magus with 58% last year, Phoenix should be ahead of Raiden, and after the number GlaDOS managed, Ness couldn't possibly be strong enough to justify a Frog win. And yet when I look over those match pics, I want to believe.

Unfortunately blind faith is no substitute in the face of this much hard evidence! kao set this line at 53%, which seems pretty fair to me- between the great pics and the good start we'll give him, I see Frog managing to somehow overperform in this one... but it just won't be enough. I'll cross my fingers and hope he's able to at least beat the line as a small consolation prize!

Alucard - 52.33%

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Dante writes the best analysis.

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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Lmao dante I had 6 beers and 7 shots last night myself, graduation rox



Of course I sent my analysis in ahead of time geez

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(1) Cloud Strife/Sephiroth vs. (2) Solid Snake/Liquid Snake

(R1) Cloud Strife/Sephiroth: 76.64% vs. Lloyd Irving/Kratos Aurion
(R2) Cloud Strife/Sephiroth: 76.78% vs. Kratos/Zeus

(R1) Solid Snake/Liquid Snake: 58.77% vs. Crono/Lavos
(R2) Solid Snake/Liquid Snake: 67.64% vs. Pac-Man/Blinky

There was a little bit of (very hopeful) upset hype around this match initially, but it died right around the Snakes failing to break 59% on Crono/Lavos. With Mega Man and Samus both apparently weakened by their poor rivals, it seems to me that the Snakes should have went considerably higher if their rivalry was perceived as being an excellent one (which you'd think it would need to be to win the rivalry factor over Cloud/Seph). Even with a picture disadvantage, I don't think 67.6% on Pac-Man/Blinky is an elite number either, considering they took part in the lowest vote-drawing match of the whole contest. The only reason I can think of as to why pairing Solid and Liquid together doesn't result in a top tier rivalry is that it, perhaps, restricts their vote draw mostly to fans of MGS1 - not Brawl or the later MGSs. That's especially bad when you think about who they're up against here.

The high water mark in FFVII/MGS matches was set back in 2004 when FFVII put 71.3% on MGS. The low water, excluding Snake's antics at the end of the 2008 contest, was Solid Snake's beating of Sephiroth and subsequent 47.9% on Cloud in CBVIII. But bringing Sephiroth and Liquid Snake into the equation clearly helps out FFVII in terms of pure strength, and, as I've suggested, in rivalry terms too. The FFVII team did worse than expected in round one, and better than expected in round two. I don't think this is going to be anywhere close to as ugly as the beatdowns Mario/Bowser and Link/Ganondorf have laid on Sonic and Mega Man, because a) any SFF present here isn't going to work at close to the same degree as in those matches and b) Snake and Liquid are stronger individually than the respective parts of Sonic and Mega Man's pairings. It'll still be an easy victory for Cloud/Sephiroth, and if they go much over 60% I'd think Link has a little work to do yet.

Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth with 59% of the vote.

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Dante talked about me while drunk so he loves me more than the rest of you.

Just sayin. That's like the fifteenth rule of being drunk or something.

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No problem!
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Oh man looks like another accuracy point for me

two in a row!

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Technically Kotetsu would get the accuracy point if Moltar accepts his write-up in place of the Guest.

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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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West Division: Round 3 - Match 55 – (1) Cloud/Sephiroth vs. (2) Solid Snake/Liquid Snake

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud/Sephiroth
Round 1 - 76.64% vs. Lloyd/Kratos
Round 2 - 76.78% vs. Kratos/Zeus

Tales beats God of War again!


Snake/Liquid
Round 1 - 58.77% vs. Crono/Lavos
Round 2 - 67.64% vs. Pac-Man/Blinky

Snakes can’t blowout an iconic rivalry in Pac-Man

We’ve seen Snake take on Cloud and Sephiroth before, and he has shown that he can beat one half of that duo. Unfortunately, Cloud is still stronger than him, and even more unfortunately, now he has to fight both with Liquid holding him down.

Rivalries matter in this contest, so I doubt Snake is going to do as well as he did in 2010 against FF7 since the Cloud/Sephiroth rivalry is pretty damn strong. If the snakes can keep it until 60%, that would be a good enough showing.

On the other hand, Cloud/Seph need to win big here since Link/Ganon and Mario/Bowser are looking godly so far.

Moltar’s Bracket: Cloud/Sephiroth

Moltar’s Prediction: Cloud/Sephiroth - 60%



Lopen’s Analysis

I'm expecting a blowout here for a few reasons. Mostly cause a lot of the votes against Cloud and Seph in both rounds are what I perceive to be anti-votes. Also throw in that FF7 tends to SFF the Snakes, and that this format lends itself to blowouts, and this one shouldn't be pretty, with Seph's lengths growing to numbers that will make even the Legendary Solid Snake look flaccid.

Oh uh WARNING SALVO I guess.

Lopen's prediction:
Cloud vs Sephiroth with 67.61%



Leon’s Analysis

Cloud/Sephy rebounded from what was perceived as a disappointing round 1 win over Kratos with what was perceived as an impressive round 2 win over Kratos. The Twin Snakes have looked good, but not great, in their two contest matches, but when you’re facing Cloud and Sephy, “only” looking good is a bit of a problem. They needed to look like monsters in their first two matches to make me think they had a chance here, but as it stands now, I can’t see it.

While Snake may have beaten Sephiroth and gave Cloud all he could handle in 2010, we all know that a large part of Snake’s strength (as far as what makes him capable of even having a close match with those two to begin with, that is) comes from Brawl. I think pairing Solid Snake with Liquid Snake limits that power somewhat because then you’re dealing exclusively with Metal Gear Solid. I think that has been part of the problem with Samus in this contest as well. Plus, while Liquid is not a bad partner, he’s so much weaker than the other three characters in this match, so that won’t help.

Don’t expect something on the level of Mario/Sonic or Link/Mega Man here because Cloud/Sephy won’t be dishing out any SFF on the Twin Snakes (OR WILL THEY), but I think they’ll look impressive as long as you aren’t expecting 70% here.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth with 61.75%

Kleenex’s Analysis

For the first time in who knows how long, Cloud and Sephiroth actually impressed in an early round match. Normally everyone would be calling for Link's head (and hey, some still are), but Link's been absolutely killing it so far. But that's for another day. Today - Snake. Pre-contest this might have been a neat little upset pick, but I honestly never saw it. Snake couldn't get the job done against Cloud 1v1 last year, and Sephiroth is far far ahead of Liquid. I expect the early vote to be pretty silly in favor of Snake, but Cloud and Sephiroth likely end the day with a pretty comfortable victory. How comfortable? Take a guess.

Kleenex's Prediction: Cloud vs. Sephiroth with 59.99%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Phone dying still @ tournament cloud over snake with 60% which sux even though I love cloud I'm starved for upsets



Dante’s Analysis

I'm very, very tempted to go with Snakes here. Before the contest started, I picked them for this match out of gut instinct - The MGS games have been on the rise (or so I thought), and the FF games have been on the decline for years. Problem is, looking at last round, I just can't support choosing him. I'd take Kratos over Pac-Man any day of the week, and Cloud did way better on Kratos than Snakes did on Pac-Man. Unfortunately, I almost took my random no reason MGS upset in the way of vamp so I can't do it again. Come on Lopen take snakes I believe in you!

Winner - Cloud/Sephiroth - 57.42%



Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

I'm not giving any consideration to an upset here, because Snake couldn't upset Cloud last year with a bandwagon. It's hard to get a good read on where Snake stands in comparison to Cloud, because he was bandwagoned in the past 3 Snake/Cloud matches going back to 2008. The last reliable Snake/Cloud match was the round 4 match in 2008 involving the Cube, where Cloud got about 57% on Snake. I don't think Cloud would pull that off again on a non-bandwagoned Snake. With Cloud being weaker now than in 2008, he probably ends up around 55% on a non-bandwagoned Snake.

As for the performances by Solid/Liquid in this contest, they haven't been that impressive. They had a good reason to break 60% on Crono/Lavos, because we thought they would get a rivalry boost while Crono/Lavos suffer a bit for being a bad rivalry. Then the Snakes failed to break 70% on Pac-Man/Blinky. Even the other 2 MGS rivalries have looked more impressive than the Snakes.

This match might give us an idea on whether or not Cloud/Sephiroth are benefiting from the rivalry factor. We'll get an idea if they are stronger than just Cloud himself. Cloud alone would beat Snake, and maybe even Sephiroth (in a re-match). Sephiroth would be able to get around 70% on Liquid, so this match probably ends up being greater than 55% in a regular Cloud/Snake match.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth
Luster Soldier's Prediction: Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth - 58.24%



Crew Consensus: FF7 wins

Cloud vs Snake

I've already gone over the HOT STREAK Snake has been on against FF7 a couple times now; suffice it to say he's gone stone cold here in 2011. Granted he was dealing with the bad pic last round, but even so there's no excuse for allowing Pac-Man and a joke rival to look so good on you. And even though Frog's hanging in there pretty well tonight, it still doesn't excuse Snake's complete inability to take advantage of Crono's bad rivalry. I could give the MGS duo a pass on either of those if FF7 hadn't looked dominant last round, but that beatdown of Kratos was almost unbelievable.

In other words, everything imaginable is trending against Snake tonight... another pic disadvantage, Cloud looking like he wants to get serious leading up to the Link match, the MGS series not getting the job done so far this bracket, and the fact that FF7 just got done murdering a different Sony-exclusive pair. Snake's expanded himself onto the GameCube and Wii at least a bit, so he should hold up a little better, but even so I'm having trouble keeping Cloud out of the 60s here. I'll say that Snake gets out to a respectable start before getting his face smashed in for the next 23 hours to the tune of

Cloud - 59.97%

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...I could've sworn I sent in my guest analysis for Alucard/Frog.

Well whatever here it is.

Right now, the Vampires are the big favorites here, and it's not hard to see why - Frog/Magus have looked unimpressive for two rounds now, while Alucard and his daddy have done respectably against both their opponents. The lawyers may not be the strongest, but it's clear that Phoenix Wright has gained plenty of exposure and is no longer fodder, and most fans of the series would agree that Edgeworth is a great rival, so his rivalry should be decent.

But 56% on Gordon Freeman and I don't even know who hasn't convinced me of much more than Breen being a huge anchor. While fans of the series might argue that the lawyers have a great rivalry, I would still be stunned if Edgeworth helped Phoenix more than he hurt due to being comparatively obscure (just look at their relative strengths). As such, I don't think getting 57% or whatever on them is a particularly good performance, and you might want to ask yourself what you think they'd do against Raiden/Vamp, which as a non-MGS fan I don't really know much about but Raiden has a modicum of strength so maybe it's worth something. Given how big Portal 2 was I'd easily take Chell/GlaDOS over the lawyers, so Frog/Magus inching by them isn't necessarily a death knell.

I'll still go against my bracket and take the Vampires here just because I'm never trusting Magus ever again, but it will probably be close.

Janus' predix: Dracula and Son with 51.03%

so yeah not accuracy but got the match right so whatevs

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should've just swallowed it and let Kotetsu get the Guests a point tbqh

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Thanks, Janus.

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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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"oops"

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ngamer and akj/moltar all over dat kleenex huh

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