Board 8 > Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

I was going for the elusive DOUBLE CAGE, but no one else read my mind and went with the upper bound.

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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN

(1) Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy vs. (2) Sora/Riku

(R1) Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy: 73.65% vs. Laharl/Mid-Boss
(R2) Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy: 66.76% vs. Siegfried/Nightmare

(R1) Sora/Riku: 60.21% vs. William B.J. Blazkowicz/Adolf Hitler
(R2) Sora/Riku: 50.85% vs. Dante/Vergil

Another match where there's been a little bit of talk about an upset, but I don't see it on. Squall faced Sora four times in 4-ways, and won every single time. In what I would determine their fairest match - with Sub-Zero and Sonic - Squall put 60.7% on Sora. I take this match over the other three because I subscribe to the theory that Kingdom Hearts has a mostly distinct fanbase to that of Final Fantasy. That's why, I think, in the '09 Games Contest Kingdom Hearts II seemed to hold back Twilight Princess so much, and FFX was unable to SFF KH1. That would lead me to conclude that the presence of Cloud and Aeris in two of the other three matches hurt Squall a lot more than Sora, hence why they were closer. As for that match with Fox and Yoshi - chalk that up to Smilin' Squall.

There's also the fact that Squall has been one of the most consistent entrants across every character battle he's been in, while Sora seems to be weakening. Comparing Sora/Laharl and Squall/Seifer's numbers on Laharl/Mid-Boss projects Squall/Seifer with 62% - allow a couple of percent for a night match underperformance in Sora's case and that stacks up.

Some people have theorised that Seifer is either a worse rival, or just simply weaker, than Riku and therefore rivalry factor will see Sora/Riku to victory, but I don't see it helping them out that much. Seifer has a clear rivalry with Squall in the early parts of FFVIII that will stick in people's minds, I think, and he held up okay in that 2002 poll. Their numbers on Siegfried/Nightmare seemed fine to me too. Riku did add enough to see Sora past Dante/Vergil, and KH never gets blown out badly, so I'd expect they'll do a bit better than Sora would 1v1, without ever threatening victory.

Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy with 56.75% of the vote.

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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)

Yes. 62% breached.

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I do because I can.....and because I'm bored.

Link vs. Ganondorf 75.26% 38913
Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily 24.74% 12793
TOTAL VOTES 51706

Alucard vs. Dracula 53.25% 24561
Frog vs. Magus 46.75% 21563
TOTAL VOTES 46124



Crew Predictions - 53/54

What Happened: SFF and Alucard beating CT again

Why it Happened: Like with Mario/Sonic, Zelda brutally SFFed MM into the ground. Then, we knew from 2010 that Alucard was stronger than Magus, and still today, Alucard is stronger than the CT characters.

What will Happen: It's Zelda so you know what will happen



Crew Prediction Challenge - easy points

Moltar - 54
Leon - 52
Guest - 51
AKJ - 50
Kleenex - 49
Dante - 49
Lopen - 47



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Squall gets the point for Link/Ganon, Leonhart gets the point for Alucard/Dracula

Leon - 12
Lopen - 9
Moltar - 8
Kleenex - 7.5
Guest - 7 (Luster: 2, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1, Korayashi: 1, GfK: 1, Kotetsu: 1)
AKJ - 6.5
Dante - 4

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Kotetsu should get the point because Janus was late tbqh

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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris

LOL guest

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crew conspiracy against the guest imho

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Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

XD at Moltar.

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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!

Northwest Division: Round 3 - Match 56 – (1) Squall/Seifer vs. (2) Sora/Riku

Moltar’s Analysis

Squall/Seifer
Round 1 - 73.65% vs. Laharl/Mid-Boss
Round 2 - 66.76% vs. Siegfried/Nightmare

Squall doubles the SC pair

Sora/Riku
Round 1 - 60.21% vs. B.J./Adolf
Round 2 - 50.85% vs. Dante/Vergil

KH barely beats DMC (lol chokers)

Well this might have been something if we haven’t seen Squall/Sora face off twice in both 2007 and 2008, and Squall is 4-0. This time, the format is different, but the result is probably going to be the same.

The different format does give KH a chance here. Riku is a much better rival for Sora than Seifer is for Squall here. We’ve seen Riku in contests and know he’s legit, while Seifer seems to be hurting Squall. Still, KH looked bad in 2010, and doesn’t seem to have recovered going off their previous matches. Squall looks to be fine, and I doubt Seifer holds him back enough to win this.

Moltar’s Bracket: Squall/Seifer

Moltar’s Prediction: Squall/Seifer - 54%



Lopen’s Analysis

My LOGIC says that Sora and Riku will win this. Leon loses his KH fan support when he has that little kid Seifer with him, and the KH boost helps Squall quite a bit. I also think the pairing of Sora vs Riku is stronger than Squall vs Seifer. However, it's still up in the air, because Squall can very well SFF Sora.

Problem is, this contest is this contest, so an upset simply won't happen, and well, if you think it might be close? You know the drill.

Lopen's prediction:
Squall vs Seifer with 60.40%



Leon’s Analysis

Squall wins while Lopen continues to firebomb our Oracle Team by picking a bad upset with lame reasoning expecting to reverse the result of a match we’ve seen several times with the same result. Good day.

The only thing that gives Sora/Riku a chance to win here is if limiting Squall just to FFVIII appeal and expecting that to cause KH fans who normally sided with him before to side with Sora/Riku now actually holds true. I won’t completely rule it out just because it would add insult to injury to this bad contest, especially considering almost all the rivalries I wanted to win this round have lost.

Just as a side note to SBAllen (since I know he reads the Analysis Crew): Please put some more thought into Squall’s bracket placement next year because he doesn’t need to face Cloud for the 4th time, Snake for the 4th time, or Sora for the 6th time next year. Many thanks.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy with 58.88%



Kleenex’s Analysis

WARNING SALVO etc etc. Link/Cloud might end up being a good match after all. Probably the only thing left to look forward to in this contest.

Oh yeah, match today. Well, uh...Squall and Seifer win. Maybe Seifer is an anchor, maybe Sora ended up getting pretty close to Squall in one of those 4-way matches, but eh. Squall probably wins pretty easy. 60/40. Blah blah blah. Thank god there's only a week of this left.

Kleenex's Prediction: Squall vs. Seifer with 60% DON'T CAGE ME BRO



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

It's weird to me that this contest is already winding down, and it sucks that we have so few matches left to look forward to. Trainers vs Samus is going to be a blast though so i'll just sit tight and wait for that. Before we get there, though, it's time to test the Square Heirarchy again!

And nothing will have changed, Sora would need a Kingdom Hearts 3 release to be game of the year to catch up, and I don't see that happening. This match will be simple and dirty awwww yeah

AKJ predix Squall vs Seifer with 58.00%

Dante’s Analysis

Whoa, we're already at the end of round 3. This contest is flying by, or maybe its just so boring I've been ignoring it for the most part. Anyway, Squall/Sora actually isn't immediately obvious to me. I can't see myself taking Sora, but I could see the win happening. Sora's percentages still aren't helpful, since Hitler is a complete unknown and he essentially tied Dante, who beat "who". Squall could have done better last round but whatever, I'll cut him a break. I'm sure he'll barely beat his squeenix friend.

Winner - Squall/Seifer - 54.01%



Guest’s Analysis - Korayashi

It's time for a cocktail of SFF and results in the contest thus far that could be viewed as 'Meh.' Stats!

Squall/Seifer > Laharl/Mid-Boss - 73.65%
Squall/Seifer > Siegfried/Nightmare - 66.76%

vs.

Sora/Riku > BJ/Hitler - 60.21%
Sora/Riku > Dante/Vergil - 50.85%

First thought? Squall hasn't been putting up good numbers on some pretty fodder-ific fodder, especially considering the numbers everyone else was pulling out on weak RPG pairings in R1. Then Siegmare barely got doubled. For shame. Clearly that's all I need to consider! Sora/Riku have this in the ba--...

60% on Hitler?

50.85% on DANTE?!

Say what you will about joke factor but DMC? DMC is not that strong.Sora/Riku are a pairing that those voting have decided they do not like. But they like slightly more then the competition. Well, until now anyway. That and the Squenix SFF? Prepare for a startling number!

Korayashi's Bracket: Hitler > Squall. Yeah, I don't know what I was thinking either...Battle Bracket is Squall wins, and that's been panning out much better.

Korayashi's Vote: Squall/Seifer.

Korayashi's Prediction: SQUALL/SEIFER with 62.31%.



Crew Consensus: Squall beats Sora again

Are people saying Riku is a better rival for Sora because he's stronger than Seifer?

Because we've already seen that's not what determines who's a better rival.

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they're saying it because of Seifer, not because of Riku! bad rival zone.

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xyzzy

Bad rival according to what?

Like, I'm not really getting where people are getting that from.

Squall's first two performances have been fine. Not outstanding or anything that indicates Seifer adds a whole lot to him, but fine.

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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg

Seifer tethers Squall to FF8 is my main problem.
Also it's a 1 game rivalry and not the main sell of the game.
Also no one cares about Seifer.

Squall/Seifer would lose if this contest wasn't so determined to not be interesting!

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Sora/Riku is essentially a 1-game rivalry. It doesn't get much of anything in KH2, really.

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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

Eh I don't think GameFAQs voters are smart enough to realize that the "rivalry" as a rivalry is mostly done in KH1. Not that there's any way to prove this or anything.

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

The match will prove it.

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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Only if Sora wins!

If Sora loses there are a lot of explanations that don't require you to assume that voters aren't stupid about Sora/Riku

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Yeah, I'll just stick with the "LOL people actually thinking Riku is a better rival" explanation.

Not that it even matters if it's true or not.

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http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png
http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png

Squall vs Sora

Now here's the kind of match that could make a fella really, really wish we hasn't seen it a million times before. 66% on Nightmare isn't the kind of performance that's going to wow anybody, and actually I was more impressed by Sora for at least getting the job done against Dante. And since he's got the better rival and will once again have a nice Day Vote advantage...

Nay, still can't give this upset much of a chance. Every time I start to give it serious consideration I'm forced to recall how much Kingdom Hearts has fallen off in the last 2-3 years, while Squall has seemingly stayed as consistent as always. HOWEVER I also don't see Squall turning this into a huge SFF blowout; for whatever reason Square rivalries don't swing that way in general, unlike what you often see out of Nintendo. Most likely result seems to be something in that 55-57 range, so let's just play it safe with

Squall - 56.47%

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thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com
I'd search B8 for The Show if I were you. *wink wink*

can't hear you over all this Sora

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xyzzy

Dammit dammit

I knew it but I let my cynicism suppress my upset sense :(

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Well uh.

60/40 in the wrong direction!

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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN

Far from over

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http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png

Nah Squall's got this.

The powers that be aren't going to let this one happen. It's too close.

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I have faith in the analysis crew, they haven't let me down yet.

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http://www.glogster.com/media/1/2/42/74/2427453.jpg

Well, at least I can solace myself with three straight accuracy points

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oh what the

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<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!

Oh good, everything's back to normal.

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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN

From: The Mana Sword | #229
Oh good, everything's back to normal.

man what an abysmal early vote though

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<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!

Taking Guest Sign-ups for the rest of the Round 4 matches in here


Red/Blue vs. Samus/Ridley -

Link/Ganon vs. Alucard/Dracula -

Cloud/Seph vs. Squall/Seifer -

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Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

i sign up for all three

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boring and mundane signature
Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold

Red/Blue vs. Samus/Ridley - PaulG235

Link/Ganon vs. Alucard/Dracula -

Cloud/Seph vs. Squall/Seifer -

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His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks

Red/Blue vs. Samus/Ridley - PaulG235

Link/Ganon vs. Alucard/Dracula -

Cloud/Seph vs. Squall/Seifer -GrapefruitKing

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Mario vs X

Normal Human Being's Take: Yawwwwn. Mario rolls over MMX in a snoozefest to set up a battle with the Pokemon Trainers next round that... might be pretty fun, actually! Assuming Nintendo Hierarchy doesn't crush them out of the gate.

Ngamer's Take: This should be neat! Both Mega Men bowed out to Nintendo's titans last year, and it's happening again in this bracket. In 2010 Mario scored 58% and Link 67%. Now, if Leon is right and there's virtually no difference between X and Original, then proportionally Link's 75% last week means Mario should be set to score 65% in this one. BUT WAIT. Just look at this match pic:



X and Zero look cool, sure. But in a Best Rivalry setting where history and nostalgia are taken into account, how can you possibly compete with the top half of that pic? You can't! This gives Mario a significant advantage versus his normal 1v1 strength, so his team should push past that 65% estimate without too much trouble. Then you factor in how he easily blew past 70 on Sonic while X struggled with Mortal Kombat, or how he's got to keep pace with the world-beating percentages Link and Cloud have been posting, or how there's no anti-favoriteFAQs lately, or how X is going to be murdered overnight (even Sub-Zero 56%'d him in Europe and Australia!), or how the Day Vote should also be kind to Mario (as it was to Link), and 70% sure looks possible!

I'm not QUITE so crazy though... let's stick with a more reasonable

Mario - 69.11%

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I'd search B8 for The Show if I were you. *wink wink*

Red/Blue vs. Samus/Ridley - PaulG235

Link/Ganon vs. Alucard/Dracula - Luis

Cloud/Seph vs. Squall/Seifer -GrapefruitKing

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"Eet's game time..."

Quarterfinals: Round 4 - Match 57 – (1) Mario/Bowser vs. (1) X/Zero

Moltar’s Analysis

Mario/Bowser
Round 1 - 85.36% vs. Jim/Butt
Round 2 - 80.47% vs. Ike/BK
Round 3 - 70.58% vs. Sonic/Robotnik

Mario vs. Sonic - Winner: Mario

X/Zero
Round 1 - 80.45% vs. Falcon/Shadow
Round 1 - 77.20% vs. Bartz/Gilgamesh
Round 3 - 52.70% vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion

X/Zero barely beat the MK ninjas

Well this is great, another Nintendo SFF beatdown who doesn’t love these.

Yeah we saw Mario get 70% on Sonic and Link get 75% on MM. X is weaker than the two, but Zero is a better rival than Robotnik and Wily. This may mean that X/Zero won’t get killed as badly here, but the winner isn’t in doubt.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mario/Bowser

Moltar’s Prediction: Mario/Bowser - 69%



Lopen’s Analysis

Start with Link vs Mega Man's result, subtract 10 or so because X vs Zero is stronger. Not because Mario/Bowser is weaker, like you might be thinking, no no. Hey... this isn't a 60/40 I feel cheated! Oh... oh... I can do this. Mario has less power ups so there's some power-up SFF. Subtract 5 for that. Or so you thought... see people cannot grasp that power-ups carry over through games, and their puny minds cannot fathom that Mega Man and Zero get 8 sub-weapons per game-- they just see it at 16, and there are of course more than 16 power ups in Mario 3. Well, actually, there probably aren't that many, but I'm pretty sure the humanoids can't count, and the suits look like animals so they'll be sure to win their hearts.
So 5% will in fact be added. Ah yes, a clean 70-30 affair.

Lopen's prediction:
Mario vs Bowser with 70.30%



Leon’s Analysis

This contest has been bad about killing hype for upcoming matches, especially where X and Zero are concerned. After round 1, we were hyped about X/Zero vs. Ninjas before their round 2 matches squashed that hype. Then we started to get hyped about Mario/Bowser vs. X/Zero before the Ninjas squashed that hype. Not much to look forward to here if you’re hoping for a close match.

The main thing to gauge from this match is to see what Mario/Bowser vs. Trainers (or possibly Samus/Ridley, I guess) is shaping up to be. I’m not sure if X/Zero beats Ryu/Ken or not, but I wager they’re not far apart. If Mario/Bowser gets under 60% here, I’d say they’re in real danger of becoming the next victim of the Trainers. I think Mario/Bowser win this one pretty easily though. Will X/Zero kill hype for yet another match?! We shall see.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mario vs. Bowser with 64.45%



Kleenex’s Analysis

What a match yesterday, huh? It took 6 weeks, but we finally got an upset! That was quite the ASV that the Kingdom Hearts duo managed to pu-wait what's that? There was no upset? The match went exactly as expected just like every other match in this contest? The last week of the contest is pretty much pre-determined with almost no chance of deviation from the cookie bracket? There's going to be like 50 perfect battle brackets by the end of this thing? Lopen's going to predict every remaining match at 60.40%? Dante's going to write a one-liner for his analysis? AKJ's going to forget to send his in?

Nah, that'll never happen.

Kleenex's Prediction: Mario vs. Bowser with 60.41%

Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Unexpectedly good match yesterday. A sign of things to come? Cause it would be pretty freakin awesome if X vs Zero pulled the upset here. It's not going to happen, but it would definitely be awesome!

X vs Zero has proven itself in the contest to have legit strength, one of those rivalries that is definitely given a significant boost by the rivalry factor. Unfortunately ever since 2005's stats topic made me buy into Samus > Mario I've never doubted the Nintendo Heirarchy. This match is in the bag.

AKJ predix Mario vs Bowser with 59.05%



Dante’s Analysis

He came so far, only to lose to an italian plumber and a giant dinosaur. What a sad story for our favorite guru nom :(. I'd write more but lets face it I have a splitting headache and this match is super dull.

Winner - Mario/Bowser 63.17%



Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534

Mega Man was able to withstand Mario's SFF well last contest, holding him under 60%, but it would seem that the Mega Man rivalries aren't adding anywhere near as much as his is. It's hard to imagine Mario/Bowser wouldn't greatly outdo 52% on the MK ninjas - this match would likely be a very comfortably victory even before taking SFF into account. But Sonic/Robotnik got SFF'd to below 30% last round and the other Mega Man pairing got tripled by Link, so I'd expect Mario to pummel X/Zero well under 40%. It's worth remembering that Mega Man X did hold up better than Sonic against Link last contest, so I'd think that would mean X/Zero can withstand the SFF a little better than Sonic/Robotnik did. Still, I would be surprised if this wasn't a doubling.

Mario vs. Bowser with 67.5%



Crew Consensus: Mario/Bowser dominate again

From: Ngamer64 | #235
Now, if Leon is right and there's virtually no difference between X and Original

I can't tell if you're being facetious or you don't actually pay attention to anything anyone says!

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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

(1) Pokemon Trainer Red/Pokemon Trainer Blue vs. (1) Samus Aran/Ridley

(R1) Pokemon Trainer Red/Pokemon Trainer Blue: 76.92% vs. Jim Raynor/Sarah Kerrigan
(R2) Pokemon Trainer Red/Pokemon Trainer Blue: 77.96% vs. Luigi/Waluigi
(R3) Pokemon Trainer Red/Pokemon Trainer Blue: 60.04% vs. Ryu/Ken

(R1) Samus Aran/Ridley: 80.64% vs. The Kid/The Guy
(R2) Samus Aran/Ridley: 60.79% vs. Terra Branford/Kefka Palazzo
(R3) Samus Aran/Ridley: 53.47% vs. Big Boss/The Boss

Samus was the favourite to win through this quadrant before the contest began, but it would take a minor miracle for her to advance here. I have a fair deal of respect for Terra/Kefka, but they're not troubling Ryu/Ken. I'm not even sure the Bosses would beat the Fighters - 56% against Chris/Wesker, or 65% against Fox/Wolf? I'd expect that match would be close. Setting them even projects the Trainers to win with 57%. But it seems to me that the Trainers are catching a bit of momentum, so they might overperform here naturally, and that's before considering SFF. After how badly they crushed Luigi/Waluigi I'd expect them to benefit again from it here, though not to anywhere near the same degree - Samus is many tiers above Luigi, and Ridley, while not much of a help, isn't an anchor like Waluigi. Something in the low-mid 60s seems about right. Anything higher, and Mario had better watch out.

Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue with 63.54%

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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)

Quarterfinals: Round 4 - Match 58 – (1) Red/Blue vs. (1) Samus/Ridley

Moltar’s Analysis

Red/Blue
Round 1 - 76.92% vs. Raynor/Kerrigan
Round 1 - 77.96% vs. Luigi/Waluigi
Round 3 - 60.04% vs. Ryu/Ken

Trainers turn a debated match into...that


Samus/Ridley
Round 1 - 80.64% vs. Kid/Guy
Round 2 - 60.79% vs. Terra/Kefka
Round 3 - 53.47% vs. Big Boss/The Boss

Metroid looking unimpressive again

We’ve come a long way since 2006, when Metroid was the stronger series over Pokemon.

Now, after Trainers put up 60% on Ryu/Ken, one of the stronger rivalries in the contest, while Samus only managed that against Terra/Kefka...this won’t be close. In fact at this point I think Fighters vs. Metroid would be a very close match.

Plus there will also be some Nintendo SFF so lol

Moltar’s Bracket: Samus/Ridley

Moltar’s Prediction: Red/Blue - 62%



Lopen’s Analysis

I think Samus holds up against SFF to some extent, but I also think Samus at base is weaker than the SF crew. However these pics are the weakest for the trainers by far-- I think their support base got lazy and decided to stop shoehorning Pokemon into their pics at every opportunity. That's going to hurt them. Enough to lose? Probably not, but I'm expecting a disappointing performance this round, which is somewhat unfortunate because Samus/Ridley is one of the few rivalries in the bracket that I dislike more than the Pokemon Trainers.

Lopen's prediction:
Pkmz Trainerz with 56.55%



Leon’s Analysis

Pre-contest, picking Samus to lose before the semifinals was considered an upset, but now, most people are expecting the Trainers to steamroll Samus/Ridley here, and for good reason. They’ve looked very impressive in all of their matches, while Samus has…well, not looked so impressive. I think we’ve seen that coupling characters who get appeal from sources other than their main series with a rival from that series has hindered them somewhat. That’s my theory anyway. Not everyone agrees with that. It looks like it’s hurt Samus, Snake, Kirby, and Squall, all characters who get a significant portion of their strength from other games (Smash Bros. and Kingdom Hearts).

And I think that’s ultimately going to be Samus’s undoing, to say nothing of the RIVALRY FACTOR Red/Blue is benefiting from here. Samus/Ridley got 60% on Terra/Kefka and essentially 60% on Chris/Wesker through the Bosses. I take Ryu/Ken to beat either of those pairings fairly easily. Heck, I still think Ryu/Ken would have a decent shot at Samus/Ridley, too. The Trainers win this one easily, but I’m not sure I’m buying into all these people who are talking doubling or better here.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue with 60.60%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Well, at this point there's no reason to support Samus in this match. Unless the Nintendo Hierarchy of Things is really out of whack, Samus can't win. Her first three matches haven't been terrible impressive, and the Trainers, well. You know. However, I don't think she'll get killed quite as badly as everyone seems to think. I'd be surprised if this was a doubling or anything like that. Still, the Trainers win fairly comfortably. Next.

Kleenex's Prediction: Pokemon with 58.90%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

This match. THIS MATCH MAN! In a perfect world Red vs Blue would make it to the finals like my glorious bracket says but in a realistic world this will be the last fantastic match they win this contest. Let us cherish it while we can!

Probably my favorite part about this match is statistics-wise it doesn't make sense. The entire match hinges on Red vs Blue having a top tier rivalry and Samus being crippled by her own. I love this. This is probably the only good thing that can come out of a contest format like this, and it's just a shame the gimmick format isn't enough to dethrone people like Mario or Link. Oh well! I'll take Samus! Hell, I'll call it revenge for her ruining mine and most of B8's bracket back in 2005.


Anyway if this doesn't work out and Samus wins I'm going to kill myself just fyi

AKJ predix Red vs Blue with 68.08%



Dante’s Analysis is Amazing

Okay so we've got the pokemon trainers in one corner, constantly hyped to hell more and more, and we've got samus in the other corner being dehyped more and more as her wins get worse and worse. My gut is leaning for a Samus win, but after samus got 54% or so on the bosses and trainers got 60 on ryu/ken I just can't justify it. Going to go with a low percentage though, as I do think it'll be a close match either way. Actually, I just realized this is nintendo versus nintendo - Samus always folds here. that actually makes me feel better. Still going low though!

Winner - Pokemon Trainers - 53.58%



Crew Consensus: Trainers beat Samus because Pokemon > Metroid

LOL guest

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http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif

wait what

lmfao I definitely meant to type 58.08 but you know what that's fine

GO RED

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http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!

Oh yeah, forgot...

PaulG235's Belated Guest Write-Up
I'd like to take this opportunity to rub it in everyone who picked Metroid pre-contest's faces that I took Red/Blue to the Semi's on the grounds that Ridley is weaksauce in these contests and Red/Blue is the internet's favourite gaming rivalry, to which I point at the various pokemon comics about them (Vgcats and Nuzlocke for example). Anyway, Trainers to fall in the late 50's percentage-wise in this match.

Winner - Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue - 56.89%

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The Gamer In Me
His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks

Red vs Samus

It's finally here, the most exciting matchup of the bracket! That what we all thought we'd be saying tonight, and if you'd told me ahead of time that Samus was going to struggle against Big Boss and manage only 53%, I'd have been super psyched! Unfortunately Cloud's recent butchering of Snake combined with his poor outings against Crono and Pac-Man have me reconsidering how much MGS was actually worth in this format... And oh yeah, almost forgot, Red just hung 60% on Ryu.

Kefka > Ryu is too insane to even consider, and as yoblazer pointed out you don't go from scoring 78% on Luigi to losing versus Samus, so this result is pretty well set in stone. The only possible defense for Samus would be the Nintendo totem pole, but ehhhhh, I really don't trust that Metroid's weak win over Pokemon from back in 2006 would hold up these days- so if anything Nintendo SFF's going to work in the OTHER direction! That combined with a bandwagon effect could result in the kind of percentage that will send a chill down Mario's spine.

COULD, mind you. Personally I still can't picture a Noble Niner getting completely blown out unless it's against another NNer. Pokemon should win easily and pull down some huge percentage during the ASV, but I think Samus limits the damage to around

Red - 62.27%

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thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com
I'd search B8 for The Show if I were you. *wink wink*

More boring matches on the way

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I do because I can.....and because I'm bored.

(1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (4) Alucard/Dracula

(R1) Link/Ganondorf: 85.3% vs. Arthas/Illidan
(R2) Link/Ganondorf: 83.69% vs. Amaterasu/Orochi
(R3) Link/Ganondorf: 75.26% vs. Mega Man/Dr. Wily

(R1) Alucard/Dracula: 63.23% vs. Commander Shepard/Saren Arterius
(R2) Alucard/Dracula: 56.67% vs. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth
(R3) Alucard/Dracula: 53.25% vs. Frog/Magus

Alucard/Dracula fought bravely to win their division, and their reward is to be roadkill for the machine that is Link/Ganondorf. Last contest Link got 72% on Alucard in a night match, and so before the contest I would have thought that with Dracula presumably bringing as much of a rivalry factor as Ganondorf, this match would give something just under a tripling, but since Link/Ganondorf have blown past expectations in every match I'm adjusting that figure up a little. I doubt they'll look quite as impressive here as they did in tripling Mega Man or hitting nearly 84% against Ammy since for the first time they're up against a solid rivalry that cannot be SFF'd.

Link vs. Ganondorf with 76.5% of the vote.

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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)

Link vs Alucard

Well, it's a Link match, what is there to say? Guess I'll try this tactic- call me crazy, but I think Alucard outperforms Mega Man in this one! Link's obviously a monster (still shaking my head over that 84% on Ammy), but even so, 75% on Mega Man strikes me as "something fishy's going on here!" in the same way that Mario's 71% on Sonic did. I just get the sense that against beasts like Link and Ocarina, your (tiny) final percentage is often more a reflection of how well you "stand out" versus your opponent rather than your own inherent strength. No one would pick Ammy to score only 52% on those Warcraft clowns, but they were PC and RTS and MMO and Blizzard, all areas of this site that Link can't reach, and they put up an impressive (in retrospect!) final percentage as a result.

As for Alucard, he's Sony and PSX and PSN and Metroidvania, and although Castlevania has gone mostly in the Nintendo handheld direction in the last decade, Link doesn't have the same death grip on those systems as he does on the console side, so it's still a plus. Alucard should also have the advantage of a decent "push" overnight that might help keep this percentage down (something Mega Man couldn't say; remember, Europe hates him!), plus he's got Dracula by his side to nullify whatever small advantage Ganon might bring to the table. All that adds up to the kind of showing that will ensure future generations take one glance at the final 2011 x-stats, shake their heads in disbelief, then totally disregard them for the remainder of their lives!

Link - 75.25%

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I'd search B8 for The Show if I were you. *wink wink*

Quarterfinals: Round 4 - Match 59 – (1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (4) Alucard/Dracula

Moltar’s Analysis

Link/Ganondorf
Round 1 - 85.30% vs. Arthas/Illidan
Round 2 - 83.69% vs. Amaterasu/Orochi
Round 3 - 75.26% vs. Mega Man/Wily

Link crushes Mega Man again

Alucard/Dracula
Round 1 - 63.23% vs. Shepard/Saren
Round 2 - 56.67% vs. Phoenix/Edgeworth
Round 3 - 53.25% vs. Frog/Magus

Alucard beats Magus again

So Alucard made it out of the weakest division in the bracket and his reward is getting beaten by Link...again. In 2010, Link won with 72%, and now we’ve got rivalry factor (that’s right ganon is gonna carry link’s ass to an even bigger blowout) and Skyward Sword.

Triplings in the Elite Eight what a great bracket what a great contest. Also Zelda always overperforms so I’ll go a few percent higher than that for the hell of it.

Moltar’s Bracket: Link/Ganondorf

Moltar’s Prediction: Link/Ganondorf - 77%



Lopen’s Analysis

Alucard's plan no doubt involves putting us to sleep in this match. So we can be jilted awake caught unawares by... Cloud vs Squall? Hm. Maybe not. Well, in any case-- zzzzz. Huh? Huh? Oh. Yeah. I expect Alucard to do better than Mega Man because no SFF. Yeah.

zzzzz

Lopen's prediction:
Link vs 12% on Link with 70.30%


Leon’s Analysis

This match is basically another opportunity for Link to flex his muscles and respond to the WARNING SALVO Cloud/Sephiroth fired off in their match with the Twin Snakes. Don’t panic if Link doesn’t go as high here as he did against Mega Man/Wily because there won’t be any SFF here. It’s kind of weird to think that Alucard’s division will be one of the few with “clean” X-Stats because they won’t be ruined by an SFF blowout. Anyway, we already saw Link/Alucard last year, and Link won with nearly 72% there. That sounds about right this time, too.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 73.95%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Three rounds in and Link hasn't dropped below 75% yet. Will that trend continue today? Maybe. I expect similar numbers to what Link got on Mega Man, so THE STREAK could be in jeopardy. Possibly. I suppose. I dunno. Link's gonna win, so who really cares! Come on Sunday.

Kleenex's Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 75.01%