Lurker > SmartMuffin

The Leafs would just be hilarious, tbqh. I wouldn't even be mad.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Yeah, Pittsburgh and Edmonton are definitely the two worst possible options. Chicago is also bad, but not nearly as bad as those two. Florida also bad because they're basically just Edmonton-lite.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

and technically the system I want long term wouldn't include Pittsburgh or Edmonton, who both would have qualified for the normal 16-team playoff just fine

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

No. Not at all. But I'm willing to take the chance. I'll like it a lot if it goes to Columbus or Minnesota or Montreal... teams that by all rights should have called it quits months ago, but for some strange reason continued to actually try...

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Honestly, as annoyed as I was when I first heard about the whole #1 pick going to a playoff team thing... the thought is kind of growing on me. I like the fact that we're basically guaranteed to see it go to a team that did not tank. I could maybe come around to the idea of something like "Best team to not make the playoffs gets #1, from there it goes down with worst team first" and so-on.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

That was starting to remind me of those Caps series in the early 2010s where they would absolutely dominate and somehow fail to score...

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

The Stars might be the most overrated team in the entire NHL.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Carolina is firing on all cylinders - playing better than anyone else I've seen so far. Definitely wouldn't want to run into them in the first round (proper).

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

So many upsets! Some of them are quite shocking!

... and then there's the Leafs.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Honestly I'm not even that hype. Basically the only qualifying round series that are particularly interesting are Jets/Flames and Jackets/Leafs. Pretty much everything else is entirely pointless. But hey, at least it's hockey!

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Seanchan posted...

Ugh, thanks for that image...

It's from the bible. Sess is plagiarizing God.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Like said, people struggle to figure out sales tax

Do they get it wrong by a factor of 200x?

Like if someone is buying something that costs $10, and you ask them to guess what the sales tax will be, do they guess that it will be $500?

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

not that it makes the results way better, but id sooner buy that a bunch of people responding to that poll thought they were being asked what percentage of the people who got the virus in their country died rather than what percentage of their countrys whole population because thats a really weird thing to ask

OK but they'd still be wildly wrong.

if I thought about it Id come up with whatever 200,000 / 300 million is and then Id have to think about what that answer is a bit. did these people have calculators?

its just such a weird measurement to ask for

No, the most logical way to do it would be to think to yourself "How many out of 100 do I suppose have died from this?" To think in terms of percentages itself, not to try and estimate the numerator and denominator and calculate the fraction..

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Why would they pick a "low number such as 10%" and not a low number such as 5%? Or 1%?

If you asked them what percentage of people are billionaires, do you suppose the average answer would also be 10%?

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Mr Lasastryke posted...

still don't get why muffin is taking the reported number of covid deaths as gospel when he's admitted on several occasions that we have no way of knowing if these numbers are accurate, btw

I don't think they are wrong by a factor of 200x.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

To the average person, 10% is really, really low, because 10% of 10 people is 1 person. 10% of 100 people is 10 people, and so on.

I completely agree with everything except the bold.

People are, in fact, just picking a percentage. And I think on average, they do, in fact, appreciate that 10% = "1 out of every 10 people." And my point is that it's absolutely fucking insane to believe that one out of every 10 people in the US have died from COVID. If people just thought about their own circle of friends, it would basically mean that everyone should personally know 10 to 20 people who have died from it...

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

yeah, i see this as a "people are ignorant" thing. not excluding myself here either - if i had to take a guess at the covid death percentage in my country, i'd be way off too, i'm sure.

of course people like muffin and that guy are going to use this to go "THE PANIC PORNERS WON," though.

I don't expect everyone to get the answer right. But if everyone is getting it wrong in the same direction, as well as getting it wrong by over 200x, then that does, in fact, say something about what the public has been led to believe, in comparison to reality.

To flip the topic, If they did a survey and asked "what percentage of welfare goes to black people" and the average response was "99%" would you just shrug that off and say "well people just don't understand numbers very well", or would you take it as a sign of ignorance/racism/etc?

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Let me be very clear about this: There is ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE that the average person is answering this question by correctly recalling from memory the reported amount of COVID deaths, and then dividing by a population estimate so wildly wrong it produces a fatality rate of 10%.

To get at that figure, even if you rounded current COVID deaths up to 200,000 - that would require you to estimate the US population is ~2 million people. That's not just wrong, it's wrong by over 100x.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

You really believe the average person knows, off the top of their head, the exact amount of COVID deaths that have been reported, but cannot even so much as estimate, within an order of magnitude, the US population? Seriously?

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

And keep in mind that's the AVERAGE. It strongly implies half of the people said more than 10%. Yeah, sure, 3 is a low number. If the average response was 3, that'd still be pretty bad... but it's not nearly as bad as 9!

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

StealThisSheen posted...

The media is literally reporting the number. People just have no clue how many people actually live in the country, which is why guesses aren't going to be accurate.

The survey asked for a percentage, not a number.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

I don't think those case guesses are far off from actuality.

You think the official estimates of deaths are off by over 200x. Because that's how far off the guess is.



---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1288234943479414786

The average American thinks that 9% of the US population has already died of COVID.

This is what media intentionally inciting a panic gets you. No wonder lockdowns are popular!

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

iiaattgg posted...

To be fair, my world view was also heavily shaped by the ff7 remake. Only got to chapter 9 or so, but still the damage was done

What sort of chemicals do we need to start putting in the water supply to produce women shaped like Tifa? I will vote for whoever promises that!

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

This is your first official warning to stop talking against The Narrative.

You joke, but I literally believe I will spend time in a prison camp before I die.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Definitely not because the corrupt government is handling the data instead of the agency full of professional scientists.

Do you think the government in every European nation is similarly corrupt?

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Corrik7 posted...

Got an email about the phase 3 trial I volunteered for.

Are you insane?

Do not let these psychopaths experiment on you.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19

Most bizarrely of all, when researchers tested blood samples taken years before the pandemic started, they found T cells which were specifically tailored to detect proteins on the surface of Covid-19. This suggests that some people already had a pre-existing degree of resistance against the virus before it ever infected a human. And it appears to be surprisingly prevalent: 40-60% of unexposed individuals had these cells.

50% of the population may be already immune. That would explain why the curves have topped out and fallen off virtually everywhere. And why we can seemingly reach herd immunity with only 10-20% of the total overall population being infected.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8564247/Are-masks-giving-men-licence-stare-Women-report-rise-aggressive-eye-contact.html

masks are cancelled

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

i guess i can agree that it's very likely all the data is flawed to a certain extent, but why the fuck are these the only two possbilities? this is a false dichotomy if i ever saw one.

Those aren't the only two possibilities - but they are the only two fair possibilities.

Yes, in reality, the actual state of affairs is that some countries are probably overstated, some are probably understated, and some are probably reasonably accurate. But as it stands today, we have no real way of knowing who is who. We can speculate, on a case by case basis, all we want. But it's also trivially easy to notice that the most common speculations correlate perfectly with political bias. CNN hasn't accused a single Blue-state governor or progressive European nation of under-counting deaths. Nor have they accused any red-state of overcounting deaths. Do you suppose that is a coincidence?

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Guess they didn't lock down enough. That or they aren't wearing masks. Those are the only possible explanations.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

That's a stupid characterization of my position and you know it.

I'm okay with either of the following: Trusting all the data we have (because even if it's not perfect, it's the best we've got), or admitting that all of the data is likely flawed in such a way that we cannot draw reliable conclusions.

YOUR position, and that of the mainstream media, seems to be something like "Any data that makes left-wing politicians look good or right-wing politicians bad should be trusted, but any data that does the opposite is definitely flawed and probably a lie." THAT is dishonest and unsustainable.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1287783752677183488

For all the people who keep baselessly insisting that the Florida data must be lies...

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

A baseball game delayed? UNPRECEDENTED! OBVIOUS PROOF THAT ALL OF SOCIETY MUST BE TOTALLY SHUTDOWN FOR 5 YEARS!!!

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

The biggest "surge" we have is a surge in negative tests, lol.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

is anyone arguing that the only people who refuse to wear masks are american trump-worshiping science hating rednecks?

In the US, nearly everyone believes this.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1287755381083701249

Still no mandatory masks in Denmark. Guess they're just a bunch of Trump-worshiping science haters, too!

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

https://twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1287718300340891649

Here's a chart plotting government COVID response intensity versus deaths per million. Spot the correlation!

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

No they havent. Its not herd immunity unless they could go back to life as normal and not go back to exponential growth.

They may have had 20-30% of the city get the disease, which certainly helps stop the spread a lot (reducing R by a factor of .7-.8), which brings them below 1 when combined with their currently sustainable level of distancing, mask wearing, etc. But they had to go through a completely unacceptable level of death and suffering to even get to that.

They have, and they could.

Their pathetic level of excess death compared to virtually everywhere else (including places like Sweden that had no lockdowns and no masks) is due entirely to Cuomo freaking out TOO MUCH and ordering infected patients back into nursing homes, because he was preparing the hospitals for a deluge of young and healthy people which never materialized.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Even abandoning all restrictions we would not reach herd immunity before having a likely vaccine.

New York has already reached herd immunity.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

weren't you arguing before that japan was doing great despite minimal lockdown measures?

My overall point has always been "the only way out is herd immunity."

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

For some reason a lot of people i know have this attitude. They want things to be as bad as possible. Latch onto the bad news and dismiss any good news. Its the same type of people who pop boners when natural disasters or stuff happen on tv

Stop pretending you don't know the reason. It's pretty simple... the worse this is, the better Democrats will do in elections, and the more justified increased government control over individuals will seem to be.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html

New outbreak rising in Japan. Must be because those science-hating rednecks refuse to wear masks.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

the cynic in me figures Trump gambled that this would actually go away in the late spring and the blue states would be the ones that looked bad.

It did go away in the blue states, precisely because they look so bad (because it spread everywhere and basically reached herd immunity).

Had the rest of the country waited a few weeks and not locked down until community spread was already rampant, it'd look just like New York. Which in terms of deaths would be catastrophic, but the media insists would be really good and awesome.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Its not, and its why baseball and football won't finish these seasons (at least without a break)

I will bet you up to $200 on this.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

I've harped on inter-sport comparisons before (why is soccer supposedly safe, but football definitely not?), so here's a new one

Why is it safe for baseball to travel around the country and play in everyone's home stadium, but not safe for hockey or basketball to do that?

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Corrik7 posted...

If you are heating or cooling a tent then it is no better than an indoor space.

Reminds me of how NY is preparing to mobilize massive government-provided daycares for people to send their kids to. You know, because sending them to school is unsafe.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

Schedule has been updated with TV network info BTW.

https://www.nhl.com/schedule

LOL @ the Leafs first game getting relegated to the "NHL network" slot in the US...

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

iiaattgg posted...

I think its okay to say there is no good solution to the school situation and the kids are kinda fucked. Charge it to the game

Homeschool.

I mean that was already the only good solution but now even more obviously so.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1286714336573104128

The "second wave" (aka the south's first wave) has peaked and will be over within another 1-2 weeks. Schools can safely reopen in September, guaranteed.

---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/