Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

PunishedBen posted...

The theory that he is Troy says it :/ That was the day he could suddenly vote

Yeah but that theory was based upon HIM saying he scanned guilty after failing a reputation vote. For all I know that's not even part of it, I was just theorizing his role based upon the information he was providing. The loss of vote has been confirmed several times, but not the loss of reputation.

Meow1000 posted...

A Death townflip would essentially confirm I stopped the kill and that Ulti only claimed the scan on me because he knows I need to die for it.

And in that townflip case you burn both Ulti and Ctes to the ground without any hesitation at all.

Ultimately I guess it's up to IGCD who he's gonna shoot.

It feels like we learn a ton from a Death flip either way. Best case scenario he flips godfather, but even if he flips town we learn that igcd must have been the target last night and that you prevented it.

But I still wouldn't be upset if IGCD wanted to shoot the guy who also claims to have access to a vig shot. But I guess death and Ctes can't BOTH be scum unless Ulti is also scum. Cop would be pointless if there were two innocent scanning scums.

Then again we've the night kills have been repeatedly avoiding killing claimed protection. That would imply either the protection is lying, or the scanner is lying. Scanner can claim he's still alive because the protection never died so of course scum wouldn't aim for him.

That would still result in some really convoluted play in Ulti's part N4 as I mentioned yesterday so it doesn't feel likely.

PunishedBen posted...

Remember that Red and Ctes were swapped though. Surely scum didnt try to make Ulti scan a guilty Ctes instead of an innocent, right?

Who says ctes even really scanned guilty n4?

PunishedBen posted...

It was me. He asked how I would use the ability, so I looked over the role again and said he should aim to win the double vote. I dont feel like scum Ctes would be able to pull out a double vote. And it would be pretty hard to believe they would have access to one. So i wanted him to prove he could double vote because that could prove him town. Not just to me but the whole game. A prosty result would only get to happen a day from now and it would just be another question if we can even trust the result or not. A double vote is host confirmation that he can do what he says he can do.

That's fair, but if he's Evil Troy as I've suggested then he never has to "guess correctly" and he can remove his own vote by choosing to scan innocent whenever he wants.

The only thing we've learned is that if Ctes is town, none of us will ever go to Vegas with him.

changmas posted...

i went and checked, ctes unvoted before Lopen vanished day 1 and then never voted again

Look at me and my boomer reflexes taking 17 seconds longer than you -_-

changmas posted...

WAIT HOLY SHIT DIDNT HE NOT HAVE A VOTE DOWN ON DAY 1

ctesjbuvf posted...

Well not by the end because we were considerate with not hammering Knightz so IGCD could be last, but you should see in votals that I could vote that day.

Just went back and check, your only vote and unvote came about 3 hours before Lopen vanished.

Not to say that it's definitely related, but you did not even attempt to vote on day 1 after that happened.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Last. two?

Shouldnt there be 3 left?

It is at worst 3 (because 4 is not possible). Only 2 is possible because there have been multiple ways claimed for town to unalive themselves but we really should not be assuming it's only 2.

I think I really just want to live in a world where Kirby successfully jailed the scum sending the kill twice in the same game.

Meow1000 posted...

Option 5: Death is scum bus and was planning to use his bus to prevent IGCD from being saved.

Shit yeah. I guess I have it assumed in my head that bus can't be an every night ability or we'd have seen it's effect before Night 4.

So the 4 options are clarified:

1) IGCD was the NK target
2) Death was the Scum who submitted NK
3) Death was the NK target
4) Scum decided to NK

Now I don't know if I want IGCD to shoot Death or Ulti more

Okay I think that's all the actions. Spreadsheet update:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1586547f.jpg

TotallyNotMI posted...

I don't see any reason for kirby to not reveal his block yet

Yeah, not anymore. I think if we allowed some discussion before any night actions were revealed there might have been a point to it, but now he might as well just say.

What if we let IGCD shoot ulti, then we'll know one way or the other if we can trust the scans and still have a lynch today?

Kirby321 posted...

Good grief Blade if you could just stop obsessing over Ulti for just one day.

FD, I dunno why you want us to wait when Blade already mentioned that he protected IGCD, but let me know when I can reveal my night action.

Evidently all the other actions have been revealed so you might as well say who you jailed. Thought there might have been a point to waiting and see if anyone TMI'd but oh well

changmas posted...

I did in fact receive it, no special text for getting a second one or anything.

just wanted to check for redirection

Good, good.

If I had to bet I'd say it was likely a single use thing, but I still don't fully understand blowing it that night on red/ctes rather than using it to kill protection.

Meow1000 posted...

Chang isn't hard confirmed a damn thing.

Nearly hard confirmed. More than Ben and those were my two options other than trying to send it to Ctes again.

...damn, maybe I should have tried to send it to ctes again.

Did you get it at least, Chang?

changmas posted...

FD, who did you send the cannister to?

Sent it to you. You're hard confirmed town (imo) and I said I'd start sending it to people I'd already sent it to before, didn't see any reason not to go through with that.

Running through the options here.

1) Blade prevented a kill by saving the NK target (and should not reveal who yet)
2) Kirby prevented a kill by jailing the NK target (and should not reveal who yet)
3) Kirby prevented a kill by jailing the Scum who submitted the NK (and should not reveal who yet)
4) Scum decided to NK, perhaps to try to mess with Ctes

Each of those presumes the person involved is in fact town.

Inno scan on blade rules out a Blade/Death scum team which is great. The math is gonna help us out a lot I thihnk. bit curious why Blade and not MI though.

Fuck yeah, someone did their job last night.

Pretty shocked at the red flip, his early game did not feel town and so even when he started playing better that felt like he was trying to make up for his bad start.

So ideally games from the same dev team(s) will have enough overlap that it reduces the amount of work for lets call them "adjacent" titles, and hopefully adding additional understanding that will apply to even further titles?

There it is

IfGodCouldDie posted...

It's a day vig that I earn.

I didn't remember this either. I thought the last time it came up you left it ambiguous.

Kirby321 posted...

However, we have the numbers for it, assuming there's at most 2 scum.

I think it's reckless to assume 2 scum, we should always assume worst case.

Didn't see the new topic, church is still just letting out.

Repost:

Meow1000 posted...

I'd actually argue that the second person who talked about that argument gets major scum EV for it. Scum generally wouldn't be the first to say it, but they'd quickly respond to the first town who did.

Who was second anyway

Idk where I fell, but I posted the screenshot showing it was 24 hours to nearly the second from your post. But I town read you for it. It still feels more like a frame job than something that you would actually do.

Maybe we should be looking for a combination of players foolish enough to waste a kidnap or day EK on Lopen. I hope it's a kidnap, I like to imagine Lopen is still out there and not allowed to join DTC

Meow1000 posted...

I'd actually argue that the second person who talked about that argument gets major scum EV for it. Scum generally wouldn't be the first to say it, but they'd quickly respond to the first town who did.

Who was second anyway

Idk where I fell, but I posted the screenshot showing it was 24 hours to nearly the second from your post. But I town read you for it. It still feels more like a frame job than something that you would actually do.

Maybe we should be looking for a combination of players foolish enough to waste a kidnap or day EK on Lopen. I hope it's a kidnap, I like to imagine Lopen is still out there and not allowed to join DTC

htaeD posted...

Also Blade if MI is scum than every lynch that day was scum, so what does that even say?

It wouldn't be the first time that day 1 was between 3 scum. I've certainly fallen into the trap of believing that sort of thing is "too unlikely" before.

Leafeon13N posted...

You literally and continue to ignore that you misread the tense of my sentences.

I recognize your tense now. You made no attempt to clarify on the moment which would have been easy to do since it was CLEAR what my thoughts were.

You've also never addressed how abundantly Droid it is to declare that you'll be around during your session to respond to posts in the moment while simultaneously being unwilling to read the initial 3-4 pages.

So yeah I assumed what your post was saying was that you wouldn't really be reading the topic at all until the session was over, because that makes a LOT more sense than what you actually said.

But I'm actually done talking about it now.

I'm not getting into it again. If you want to read why I was right to question you then the first topic is still there.

Leafeon13N posted...

This is a very curious take because I'm very certain the last time i had a dumb lengthy day 1 talk with you i was town.

That was you helping me prepare for my December Disney trip, right? Not you arguing pointlessly about D&D availability and not even attempting or counter voting me for what was a genuine reaction to you appearing to be done with your session only to disappear.

Kirby321 posted...

Why Red over MI? I know everyone's gonna be busy but if you elaborated on why you place MI over Red or especially Ben, I'll go look for it. But that's rather puzzling to me.

MI was RB'd night 3 so there's that. It can no longer be combined with the ctes "vote suppression" but it's still a night where MI 100% didn't send a kill.

Also even though red has felt better since day 3 I can't shake how disingenuous and disinterested red felt before that, going back to his night 1 argument with me. If he had been killed on an early night he would have contributed absolutely nothing to the game, it does not feel like a red who was worried about being night killed.

I did feel like his reaction to the redirection was genuine though, so that gives me some doubt.

.

Meanwhile Ben is everything to do with the claim. The flavor itself. The fake BP. The justification for the fake BP. I did like the way his solving felt earlier in the game, but that claim

.

So it's less that MI makes me feel good, others just make me feel worse

As unfounded as the fears are I don't mind simply giving "love" to people I've already targeted.

.

I'm going to be pretty busy this morning at church (extra stuff to run for sound/media/livestream on mother's Day)

Then I'll be busy after church seeing my mom.

I'm guessing I won't be there only one restricted by the day. For now my vote remains on Ctes, if it's clear that simply won't happen then Ill probably switch to red, rather than MI. I would probably still lynch Ben over MI as well. But that's where my heads at right now since there might not be much opportunity later.

With all of that said I still feel like ctes is just lying -_-

Me with a signed Chet jersey (Gonzaga) wondering if now is the best time to sell <_<

But regardless of ctes some things remain unchanged.

-Faith in Kirby is more or less unquestionable, despite his abysmal action last night
-Ditto for Chang except for the night action part.
-Ulti feels much more likely to be town than not just based on the fact that the redirection occurred. It's an odd thing to do if the cop scans aren't real.

I can include myself as confirmed from my own perspective at least so that gives 4 confirmed* town in 11 remaining with at most 3 scum left.
(*as confirmed as you get without being dead and host flipped anyways)

So today is either 9 vs 2 or worst case 8 vs 3.

If 8 vs 3:
6 vs 3 after a mislynch.
5 vs 3 if IGCD shoots and misses.

So with only 1 mislynch and a failed vig shot we'd actually at Mylo, the vig shot on town wouldn't end the day right? But without the vig shot we'd have 2 mislynches before Lylo. Now ideally the shot hits so it's a moot point, but that's worst case scenario, Mylo tomorrow.

Or if 9 vs 2 then 2 mislynches and a fail vigi still puts us at 4vs2 = Mylo.

But I'd like to think it would be all but impossible to mislynch twice in a row from this spot.

Next we'll assume Ctes is scum.

My strongest belief is that he's not actually bookie and he really is Evil Troy who operates almost identically to how I proposed earlier. Either to lose his vote, but appear town, or to keep his vote, but scan scum. No bets, no RNG, just those options. Hell there might not even be options if he's lying, it might just be he's Evil Troy so he lost his vote for X number of days because that's what happens when you try to swallow a flaming troll doll. We have no way to prove the scanning guilty part which could just be a fabrication to make the redirection make less sense. "Why would I redirect a possible red scan to myself if I knew there was a chance I would scan guilty the second time around??" It just becomes WIFOM at that point.

So yeah, that's where I'm at for scum ctes theory. Scum thought they were going to get another "Ctes is innocent" result tonight and he would have enough goodwill to coast on "it would be really bad for town if I full claim today" (which honestly isn't true based upon the claim we eventually got, if anything it feels pro town for scum to have an additional reason to question their night target)

But then who is scum with ctes? Hell if I know. Red or MI both still benefit from the redirect for the same exact logic as the Town Ctes scenarios above. It would be small jackpot for the same action to not only prevent a red guilty scan but to also result in a second ctes innocent scan, so that feels more likely? Because it's easier for either Red or MI to defend themselves from the other person being scanned innocent, much harder to defend yourself from your own guilty scan. Not conclusive either way.

Finally home and on PC. I've been mulling over the whole thing trying to wrap my brain around it and the different scenarios and it's hard to find logic that really fits everything that we know. It stands to reason that there's things we don't know and it's also possible that scum behaved illogically for precisely the kind of distraction that today has become.

.

I'm going to first assume that Ctes is innocent and truthful about how his role works.

If so, what do we know?

For one, his role sucks. It's not a good role. It has potential, but it's significantly worse than 50/50, I don't think it would ever be in our best interest for him to bet his own life. The odds are too slim, the EV is too low and the chance of town death is too high. And even in instances where itdoes work it's such a slow anti-tempo role. Making a fantastic guess only to get a prosty scan the following night? That's basically just an every-other-night prosty who can only act if they are also a predictive God.

But sure, we're saying he's town, and he has a shitty role, moving on. Next we can pretty safely say that scum assumes he scans innocent and always would scan innocent. Even in a world where Ulti is scum with Lopen's claim he would have no reason not to believe town ctes scans innocent.

Scum also would have no reason prior to today to believe that Ctes would have any trouble claiming his role, because why would he?

So if Ulti is town, the redirection between Red/Ctes was to take a scan on red and turn it into a second "Ctes is innocent" result. But the kirby roleblock on Ulti was not anticipated.
This could support red being scum trying to avoid a guilty scan on himself.
This could support MI being scum trying to avoid a town scan on red and becoming the presumptive lynch.

Alternatively, if Ult is scum, the redirection between Red/Ctes was irrelevant to the scan result because the scan we would receive would be a lie anyways. Ulti would simply say he received a Ctes result against despite targeting red. Now that's murkier because Ulti not only claimed to have targeted MI (which doesn't fit the redirection) but also because he knew he was roleblocked before Kirby said. So if he's scum then he still did something that wasn't a kill. And it wasn't the redirection because that still occurred. It also wouldn't be vote suppression because Ctes in this scenario is assumed town and claims to have done it to himself. So scum ulti does something, gets roleblocked and realizes now he can't claim to have received a second Ctes scan, so for good measure he claims he wasn't even targeted red to begin with?
For the same reason as above this could speak to red being both scum or town. Either a ploy to protect red for a fake guilty scan (though Ulti could just fake an innocent scan on red if they wanted to commit to it) or to protect MI from the inno "scan" on MI.

It's much more convoluted for Ulti to be scum in that scenario so I still buy him as town.

But that still doesn't give a clear answer on the redirection. If we're assuming the scans exist, then it could still have either been to prevent a red guilty scan OR to prevent a red innocent scan. So the redirect had to be both red and someone who was previously scanned to prevent any new information from being gained last night. That leaves Ctes or Death.

.

So trying to work it out in this way, that is what I would conclude if I assume Ctes is town and truthful:
-Likely a scum between Red/MI since either stands most to benefit from the redirection
-And possibly a bonus point in favor of Godfather Death theory since Ctes was selected for the redirection rather than him.

I don't think it says much about anyone else, but I could be missing an angle, it's confusing.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Scum however, definitely benefits from having this knowledge.

I still don't understand how.

TotallyNotMI posted...

Is it? He doesn't ever have to prove anything

He proved that he can't vote at least. So whether that's his actual role or something else is, there is actually a loss of vote mechanic involved.

The part I don't really understand though, is ctes effectively has to be perfect 2 nights in a row for us to receive a tangible benefit. He would have to guess correctly night 5 to receive something and then actually use the thing successfully night 6, it's so slow

If he can actually bet his life on guessing the NK then I'd say he probably doesn't ever do that, so he would just be a really damn unlikely prosty/double voter.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Because they choose the thing I bet on of course.

Which changes.. what exactly? Can you think of not unlikely night kills than the ones we've seen so far? Isquen and Sbell were wayyy out in left field. At least MZero can be reasonably explained by his own night action, though it's equally possibly he was directly shot.

I still don't like it for flavor reasons, but that is... oddly specific.

Have we seen a role like this before?

ctesjbuvf posted...

This role has so much potential to be fun but you're straight up not allowing it.

You had 4 nights already. And if it was truly RNG that screwed you then shit that sucks but sometimes that's the breaks.

ctesjbuvf posted...

How the f*** can anyone insist something is smart that the rules of the game straight up says isn't.

Those rules are copy pasted and say nothing of how likely Lea and Sultan were to pick flavor that fits.

If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. But I don't think I'm wrong.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Is there a limit to how many you can send out? I'm not sure if this has been asked yet.

No limit, it's just an every night ability. The only quirk is that I must use my ability each night. I don't have the option not to act.

I also helped the lynch on knightz day 1 by pushing him on flavor related justifications that he was completely unable to answer resulting in multiple flubs. Which is less to toot my own horn and rather justify that flavor can have a purpose, especially when it all seems to fit very well.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Then more people should tell him to look for scum equity instead of going against host wish of no metagaming.

I think you're just upset that your flavor fit what you've revealed too well and I figured it out.

Sorry

As far as I can tell I can target the same person multiple times. Do you want me to just keep giving pineapples to chang?

Or hell I wouldn't mind being an option for Kirby's jailer action. Safety from death with no important role lost. (Though I still think Chang is a better target for that)

ctesjbuvf posted...

Also did FD seriously spend time looking at what could possibly fit with a role.

Nah I just consulted my Community themed pocket encyclopedia.

You were the one suggesting that "the hosts just wanted a bookie" and that they couldn't think of anything better than starburns.

ctesjbuvf posted...

You guys are forgetting that my positive effects are tied to what I bet most of the time.

How can we "forget" something you haven't really told us about.

Please explain.

That wasn't too be dramatic or for effect. I literally want you to explain.

Okay, characters in community who could be a Bookie:

Coach Bogner from the Billiards episode. He makes a very with Jeff about whether or not you can play billiards in shorts.

Juergon, Karl, Lukas or Reinhold. The German Foosball players. They wager access to the foosball table in a match against Jeff.

Richard, Joe or Pearl, the 3 old friends of Leonard who in one episode are bad influences on Pierce and are seen playing poker before the Dean showed up to break it up.

.

Characters not seen doing any gambling or wagering: Starburns

He has star shaped sideburns
He gets a lizard at one point
He does drugs
He sells drugs
He fakes his death in a drug lab explosion

That's about it.

And there might be even more better suited characters for Bookie, but there's also the fact that Ctes has yet to demonstrate any actual Bookie-ing.

But based on the partial claim information we have from Ctes I'm sticking with this:

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I think ctes is Evil Troy.

Evil Troy loses his voice when trying to eat a flaming troll roll (yes, really) and he is later seen speaking using some kind of mechanized voice box.

So I think his two options are to stay silent (lose his vote) and scan innocent (because he looks like regular Troy)

Or to keep his vote (voice) but it gives him away so he scans guilty.

ctesjbuvf posted...

That red and I are faking that?

If red is faking then he did a masterful job. I thought it was really strange last night when he started to ask me about my action confirmations, but now it fits.