Lurker > Dan_Haren-

You should email your landlord requesting accomodations for the said allergies so that you have a documented response on paper. Just feels like a minor and reasonable accommodation that they should be willing to provide and is probably supported somehow by the law.

littlebro07 posted...

if you ask the ENZC twitter cult it's the cure for HIV that big pharma has been holding down for decades

I see some trials started over a decade ago. I cant tell if its a vaccine or a treatment and how its used or what it targets or anything.

Seems like companies have alot of inventory that they are trying to offload. Already seeing crazy deals for durable goods.

I think this means people will keep spending thinking they need to grab this stuff now while prices are hot.

It will feedinflation

I tried googling around and I still don't get what ITV-1 is and how it works.

I might be more pessimist now than I was a few weeks ago.

Looking at august CPI data, pretty much everything increased except for energy. Energy was down about 5% for july and august, mainly driven by gasoline which was down 10% in august and 7 % in july.

Opec cutting production means gas prices are going to go up. (They cut the quota by 2mil but several countries weren't meeting quota to begin with, so the ACTUAL production cut is about 900k-1.1mil, somewhere in that range). And with the high demand in europe, that number is going to shoot up. We're going to see the highest gas prices ever this winter IMO.

And yes house prices are coming down but not nearly as fast as people think. House prices take months to go down and are still not at equilibrium.

The fundamental problem though is that wages are way up and unemployment is down. As long as that happens, demand will stay high, people will keep spending. Goldman Sachs says households have about 2 trillion still in excess savings just from the lockdowns, which is equivalent to 10% of GDP.

I still think the general public is too optimistic. Market will have ups and downs but like I've said many times, all we've seen so far is the market pricing in rate hikes. We haven't seen the actual effect of rate hikes. Businesses will start to trim fat to prepare for whats ahead. Winter is coming in '23.

Only in the rosiest of worlds will a mild rise in unemployment suffice to slow down price rises substantially. The worst of the fight to tame inflation is yet to come. - Economist Magazine

Hoping this rally lasts through next Wednesday when I go balls deep into sqqq before the cpi numbers

ADP reports more job hires than expected.

The tight job market saw another month of sizeable pay hikes, with annual pay trending up 7.8% from a year ago, according to ADP, which compiles the report in tandem with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. Those changing jobs saw a median change in annual pay of 15.7%, down from 16.2% in August for the biggest monthly drop in the three years ADP has been tracking the data.

as long as jobs remain strong and wages are rising, there will be no pivot in sight.

We still got a long way down, folks.

Stocks are rallying because of potential fed pivot...yields are going down....I think it's all based on the Jolts report of lower employment figures.

Unemployment report comes out this Friday and CPI next week. Those are the key reports people will react to.

Just transferred some more money to robinhood...doesn't get processed until next wednesday...WTF

And heres the counter argument against that video from a legendary bond investor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7X4BXxhbZk&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

theAteam posted...

What exactly is driving this sentiment? Does the market really think the fed will start lowering rates again? I don't think there's any indication we've slowed inflation, in fact it seems to be getting worse around the rest of the world.

Its all based on bond yields. This video explains it well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfUc0-zY3VI&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

Theres no sound basis for this rally. Its purely speculative that people think inflation is coming down and that the fed will pivot. Part of that pivot reasoning is also so that the fed doesn't obliterate emerging markets. Bond yields coming down is a good sign in general. Other reasoning is that job openings are starting to decrease, housing is starting to come down, etc.

Again if ur long-term (>10 years), it makes sense to buy this "dip". But my opinion hasn't changed, I think a q4 rally is almost expected then '23 will be a shit show. The fed will keep hiking. Businesses booming is counterproductive to the inflation fight. Housing hasn't come down nearly as much as it should. Energy is now going to start going up as the US is no longer going to its strategic reservoirs (which artificially lowered gas prices this summer). If we're not going to our reservoirs and OPEC is cutting production, gas will shoot up again which worsens inflation. Prices for goods are still high and still have increased month to month. The key number is going to be wages. If wages keep rising and unemployment is low, then inflation will continue and the fed will continue to raise rates.

Personally I'm going to just ride the waves with x-multiplier leveraged etfs like tqqq, sqqq, gush, etc. Its been fairly easy to predict because it seems like the entire market moves together. Either everything is up or everything is down and these ups and downs aren't instant.

I think theres growing concern over the treasuries market. Fed is selling because of QT. Foreign economies suffer from a strong dollar, driven by the fed raising rates, so they sell treasuries to protect their currency. All of this results in increased supply of treasuries => decreased prices => increased rates. That instability in the treasury market is why some people think the fed might stop selling and maybe even buy to stabilize prices, which is counterproductive to the inflation fight. BoE did the same thing last week. All of this is leading people to speculate a premature letting off the breaks by the Fed. Its a bad cycle overall though.

On top of all of the issues we have, now if Opec cuts production, estimated to be about 1% of their total production, that could raise prices, and increase inflation, and hurt business growth.

Since I first mentioned SQQQ and my negative sentiment posts...sqqq is your from 35 to almost 60. I think it's gonna go more. If the June peak was 66 were gonna hit 80+ IMO.

Tyranthraxus posted...

Rumor is several major banks are over leveraged on derivatives and fucked.

Where r you hearing this?

s0nicfan posted...

Plus Russia was the one that turned it off and blamed it on sanctions in the first place, when the actual manufacturers said that the needed maintenance was simple and wouldn't have been impacted by sanctions. So the whole argument that Russia isn't comfortable turning off their money maker is complete bullshit given that they were the ones that have had it off this whole time.

I'm not sure if you understood my post.

I'm saying yes Russia turned it off, so why would they need to blow it up when they could just turn it off.

Russia blowing it up to avoid europe from siphoning off remaining gas seems dumb. I believe its on the order of 1% or less of volume in the actual pipe that gets moved per year. Russia is not that stupid. They know that this war will eventually end and they'll be fucked without this pipeline. Why? Because they can keep selling oil and natural gas to asia but they are getting it at a huge discount because theres no competition. Theres no way anyone in asia is paying full price for any russian commodities when theres no other buyers, currently due to sanctions, but in the future, due to infrastructure issues from this sabatoge.

Very little gain from russia with devastating long-term consequences.

Russia is easy to blame but theres absolutely no logical reason other than "lol must be russia they are crazy"

Anyone give me just ONE good reason how this helps Russia medium or long term?

I agree about Ford. I think it might drop further though. With peoples savings dwindling, interest rates super high, and most EV manufacturers increasing EV prices the same as the tax credit amount, I'd imagine demand for cars goes down.

And I totally understand DCA...I've read the bogleheads books. But I don't see the harm in putting DCAing on hold for 8-12 months because conditions are just so bad right now. If you absolutely need to invest in something then do ibonds. And once that's maxed do high rated corporate bonds or long term treasuries. If anything now is a great time to diversify with bonds and treasuries. Then late next year keep DCAing into stocks and etfs.

Bros..don't buy.

I just don't see any way the market recovers any time soon. I'd love to hear logical explanation for optimism...other than just "no one can predict and anything can happen".

Inflation still high, demand still high, people employed, etc. We have not yet seen the effects of high interest rates...all we've seen is the market trying to price in those effects and honestly it still hasn't reached a price-in nadir. We got a ways to go. Then once business profits are down, layoffs happen even more, and stock prices go down way further.

On top of all of our domestic issues. Europe is completely fucked not only by worse inflation, worse central bank policy, worse fiscal policy, worse leaders, worse business strength, worse everything. Europe is big time fucked, as is Asia and emerging markets.

We do alot of business in Europe so that will also hurt our economy further.

There's going to be a world wide recession...ours not as bad as Europe but it'll drag us down further than we initially projected.

Take my advise with a grain of salt cuz I'm just another guy on the internet but im absolutely dumbfounded by anyone still buying anything other than inverse etfs. I'd ur plan is very long term and ur just DCAing then sure. That's all.

Definitely need some clarification on that post...none of that stuff made sense.

s0nicfan posted...

It makes sense if Russia is really committing to total war and is no longer expecting normalized business relations in a year or two.

Again, they can simply shut the valve off. If anything it helps that they had the bargaining chip even if they didn't want to use it.

There's no way this is Russia cuz they get hurt the most of anyone.

Damn was hoping yday rally would last through next week until my deposit processes.

They are not wrong...winter is coming for the economy. As someone who reads about this stuff daily it seems like common knowledge to me but when I talk to people oblivious to the economy, they have no idea.

Not only are conditions rough and getting worse, but there's also the snowball effect. Right now the snowball is just starting to roll and just starting to build some momentum.

It just doesn't make any sense to me for Russia or any European country to do it simply because if they didn't want the pipeline to be functional, they could have just shut off the valves themselves. And again, it really does hurt both regions. Absolutely no benefit whatsever.

Like, this is major infrastructure that will lead to massive amounts of financial losses for both parties, its not as simple as bombing a freeway or an empty building.

NeoShadowhen posted...

but rather will see the lower and middle classes get financially squeezed until they are serfs

I haven't read about other countries' plans yet, but UK is already planning government subsidized price caps on energy. Germany is considering it. So that cost will allow these people to survive the winter. The problem is energy will be WAY more expensive this year than in the past because they have to import liquified natural gas. It'll be interesting to see how countries deal with it. Right now Germany might be the smartest european country in terms of leadership so we'll see what they do. UK and Italy's new leaderships are both fucking dumb, so both of those countries are fucked.

It doesn't make any sense for any european country to do this. They are pretty much all entering crisis mode due to exorbitantly high energy costs this winter. Its in all of their best interest to end this conflict and get natural gas through the pipeline. LNG is now their much more expensive alternative that they have to rely on. Its also in Russia's best interest to keep that partnership going after this war is over. The only culprit in Europe is Ukraine as a fuck you to Russia.

The US isn't dumb enough to do something like this. This does nothing to hurt Russia short term, and long-term it hurts European allies more than it hurts Russia. And our economy very much is interconnected with western europe. Many of our companies benefit from strong european economies.

Asia...its certainly possible an asian country could do it. This allows cheaper resources for them, from Russia, and potential for export to Europe. But again, economies are so interconnected. If europe does poorly, they won't import as much from China, because most of that is manufactured goods. Bed economy = less spending = less chinese imports.

Last but not least, I think the most likely culprit is not a particular nation, but a private company involved in shipping of LNG. Destroying this pipeline should boost their stock like crazy and keep them up long-term. So watch out for that.

I've held on to samsung phones for years and have never run into this problem.

Face is like a 5 or 6, body is a 9

Well the store I went to was Allen Edmond. I tried the 10, 10.5, and 11. They all fit fine to me, but the dude pointed out that on the bigger sizes it was loose on the sides and my heel lifted out just a tad when i walked. He also said with these nice shoes over time the leather breaks in and it gets much more comfortable.

My size has been between 10.5 and 11, depending on the brand. I've been getting mostly 11s in athletic shoes since I liked that little bit of space in the front, so when I run my toe doesn't smash up against the front.

I got it measured today and it turns out my left foot is size 10 and my right foot is size 10.5. I actually tried on some size 10 shoes and they fit perfect, a bit snug on the sides but the front was fine.

Biden should pull a trump and pull federal aid unless they're nice.

I posted this maybe a few months ago and got some replies, but we were in the moving process and didn't really look at details.

Now we've found a few nearby and actually scheduled a tour. Just curious if anyone did this as a child and do you think it made a difference in your education and success?

They have apparently 2 teaching styles to choose from, STEM, and Montessori style. Our kid is 3, but he would love pre-school. He loves doing new challenging things and puzzles.

ToadallyAwesome posted...

The UK equivalent of Reagan was Marget Fucking Thatcher. And she went even further than Reagan could ever dream of.

She's said to be the new Thatcher.

Front page of the economist:
https://www.economist.com/

TLDR:
How not to run a country
Liz Trusss new government may already be dead in the water

Put it on your car roof and hold it in place with your left hand sticking out the window.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


They can probably explain better than me but long story short....Truss is their new PM, the Uk equivalent of Reagan. Theres already high inflation in europe from covid, same reason as us.

Ukraine war => Sanctions on russian oil which was a huge supplier => have to spend ALOT more on energy imports from elsewhere, specifically liquified natural gas which is very expensive to transport across seas => super high energy costs. So what the UK did was set a price cap on what energy will cost the consumer and the government will absorb that cost. They will pay for it with bonds...more on that later.

Now on top of that they decided lets create massive tax cuts to stimulate growth. So how does the government pay for things when they bring in less tax money? More bonds. Also growth is inflationary. At a time when theres supply side issues and already pent up demand, tax cuts is moving in the wrong direction and will worsen inflation.

Now they are issuing so many bonds to pay for everything, bond prices are plummeting (increased supply of bonds => decreased price of bonds). That also means bond yields go up.

Now peoples pensions are in bonds right? Its supposed to be safe growth. This part gets alittle confusing for me too but long story short, their bonds are worth alot less because the government just dumped a shit ton more into the market.

The bank of england was planning to sell a bunch of bonds, which effectively takes money out of the economy, to help inflation. Now it to reverse that and buy bonds as a safety net for everyones pension funds. If the central bank buys bonds => dumps more money into their economy.

And they cut taxes to stimulate growth when literally the bank of england is trying to do the opposite to control inflation. Increased bond yields also increases interest rates for borrowing => people borrowing for spending, businesses borrowing for growth. And on top of that the bank of england will likely increase their base interest rate soon....which again means higher interest rates => less borrowing => less growth => good to control inflation but counterproductive to what the government is doing.

TLDR: They have high inflation, and now they are in this bad cycle where they have to do things that worsen inflation rather than fight it. And alot of these problems are caused by this new regime. The central bank and the government are completely on different pages.

fucked?

Looking for a new 65-70in TV.

Full depth or nothing. I just pulled out.

With Sqqq in the last 6 weeks I've turned 600 to 770 bucks, about 28%.

Just transferred alot more money from my bank account to robinhood, it gets fully processed next week. Looks like there's a mini rally starting up now. Hopefully this continues for a bit.

I'm waiting for another bear market rally so I can buy SQQQ when its low. Its at 57 right now. if it drops below 50 I'm going balls deep.

VeggetaX posted...

I remember building projects and shit for homework and mother fuckers be bringing in shit that their parents obviously did for them.

Yup.

They will get to that point sooner or later, you are delaying the inevitable. And in delaying it you are prolonging suffering for many. So them buying russian oil isn't isolated to just them and russia, it indirectly hurts us and most of europe. ...not to mention all the ukranians/russians who have to die in the process.

I completely agree. CEman are a huge culprit to that mentality. Someone could literally make the most brilliant post ever and figure out time travel, and CE will point out 1 typo and be like, "see its all bullshit."

wackyteen posted...

It's morally questionable

Thats exactly the point. Europe is suffering right now in large part due to the sactions they are also taking part in. Russia is suffering because of it. India is letting russia release some of that steam. Its counterproductive to what the US and its allies are doing and its prolonging the conflict. Modi spoke out against Putin but its all bullshit cuz where it matters, he's helping them. Modi is also a known piece of shit.

Aitz posted...

So India can buy weaponry from Russia all they like and no should even bat an eye but Pakistan buys weaponry from the US and India gets furious, lol

Exactly. Fuck em.

All the US allies have joined in on Russian sanctions right now except India. India barely used to import Russian oil now it imports a huge portion of if.

Unknown5uspect posted...

I'm one of those weirdos that loves the green label but isn't a fan of the black label.

I also love green label, but I'm a fan of black as well. Green definitely my favorite tho.

If she has not had any pain management and she's in constant pain she should definitely see a pain specialist. There's many ways to address pain beyond just opiates.

I have yet to find someone else irl who enjoys it as much as me.

I've met people who say, yea it's not bad...but it turns out they drink it mixed with coke.

And honestly if you go to any doctor and ask for std testing even if its not warranted, it shouldn't be a problem. Even if you don't give them a reason, they will and should just assume you aren't comfortable discussing it but there must be a reason if you're asking for it.