Lurker > Corrik7

xp1337 posted...

*thinking emoji*

The data you are stating to argue your point comes from the December 16th 538 polling average. Why is it weird when I use it but not when you do?

I am arguing a polling cycle away. You are arguing mid one. It's just weird.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

xp1337 posted...

So are you.

Why is the start line "last week" and not "when it actually started"

I picked the last three days because:

1. I was constructing a timeline of significant events in the impeachment process. The 13th was the last significant day IMO. Nothing of note has happened in the past 3 days we're just waiting until Wednesday for the vote.
2. You were largely discussing recent polls. Polls that ****ing covered largely that 3 days period! If you're using them to argue a trend then why the hell would I not analyze that period?
3. My larger point, if you would read my post (ironic from the "you all remove context and lack reading comprehension" complains you level at the collective "us" all the time) was that I felt it was mostly flat and we're just poking at noise in the polls. The numbers are mostly flat and have been for a while now. But if you're going to insist we look at them by pointing out drops from "last week" (Still waiting for where 538's polling average showed 50% last week for you to claim this 3% drop.) I offered an alternate explanation by looking at the weirdness of the partisan breakdown trends over that period but still listed it after "probably noise".
4. why did gamefaqs start a list i didn't ask for this

There are not any polls out there that cover after the 13th. Which is why it is weird you are choosing the 13th to the 16th.

Best you have is 11th-15th polls...

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Better off arguing an outlier poll is screwing the independent numbers up then what you are.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Why are you comparing a 3 day period? Lol

So you are just picking and choosing arbitrary dates to try and argue what you want to argue. Lol.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

xp1337 posted...

Looking into the details of impeachment polling is more revealing than just going "IMPEACHMENT BACKFIRE!? RED WAVE!"

Here's a timeline. Polling averages are 538's.

September 24 - Pelosi announces the inquiry

Impeach - 38.7% (D - 70.9% / I - 34.4% / R - 8.5%)
Don't Impeach - 51.2%

November 13th - House Intel Public Hearings begin

Impeach - 48.5% (D - 82.6% / I - 45.4% / R - 11.6%)
Don't Impeach - 45.6%

December 3 - House Intel concludes and releases its report

Impeach - 48.8% (D - 83.8% / I - 44.5% / R - 11.4%)
Don't Impeach - 43.5%

December 13 - House Judiciary votes for articles of impeachment

Impeach - 47.7% (D - 84.7% / I - 42.8% / R - 9.7%)
Don't Impeach - 45.7%

So, Impeachment went from -12.5 from when the process started to +2 when the articles were adopted by Judiciary. So uh, literally impeachment is up 14.5 points hard to say it backfired lol. If you want to look at today's averages, 3 days later, because "oh no the sky is falling impeachment only +0.5 red wave red wave" yeah, the net is down 1.5 points. But look at the partisan breakdown: I's are literally exactly the same as 12/13 but Republicans dropped a point to 8.6% and Dems somehow dropped 1.6 points to 83.1%. I'd say "chill it's probably noise" or "unless you think democrats suddenly think it's totally legal and totally cool over the past 3 days, it's probably more likely it's a self-fulfilling prophecy reaction to IS THIS GOING TO BACKFIRE!?!?! that the media is playing with." but again, probs noise.

To look at specific polling outfits that released polls in the past few days... (parentheses indicate change from last poll by that outfit)

SSRS (A/B Rated): (December 12-15 against Nov 21-24)

All: -2 (-9)
D: +65 (-19)
I: Even (-2)
R: -87 (-10)

Independents basically even across polls, Democrats are the biggest drop, going from Impeach +84 to +65

Quinnipiac (B+) (December 11-15 vs. December 4-9)

All: -6 (Even)
D: +75 (+4)
I: -22 (-14)
R: -90 (+2)

Dems and Republicans actually more in support of impeachment now! Is with a big drop. No change overall. kinda weird.

Fox (A-) (Dec 8-11 v Oct 27-30; Yeah Fox has a huge gap.

All: +4 (Even)
D: +74 (-3)
I: Even (+9)
R: -73 (+6)

Fox shows that the reason overall support remains Impeach has stayed at +4 is because Independents and Republicans are more in favor of it now and are covering for a slight drop in Dem support lol.

Marist (A+) (Dec 9-11 v Nov 11-15)

All: -1 (-2)

No partisan breakdown. -2 is basically MoE stuff so whatever.

Ipsos (B-) (Dec 9-10 v Dec 2-3)

All: +4 (+2)

Again no partisan breakdown. Again a change of 2, this time in favor of impeachment. Again, MoE stuff.

~~~

tl;dr: Support for impeachment is significantly up from the beginning of the process with the inquiry being announced. Double-digits up. The polling average has dipped in the past three days, but looking at the partisan breakdown of these averages, the biggest dip is coming from Democrats. Independents are staying flat. Republicans have dropped a bit predictably but still not as much as Democrats. Unless you think Democrats are genuinely coming to the conclusion that Trump is innocent or something it's most likely noise or Dems reacting to hearing the narrative that it will backfire... causing them to get skittish... causing the average to dip... causing that narrative to be reinforced.

~~~

tl;dr the tl;dr: in the words of aaron rodgers: r-e-l-a-x. relax.

I just posted the current numbers and they are not what you just said they were. So unsure where you got those ones.

And it was over 50% for last week. It is now almost 47%. That's a 3% downslide. Which means at the moment it is trending down. I also shouldn't have to even point out that democrat support went UP while the overall % went down. And independents went down. The point of impeachment was to show a majority. Now the trend could not continue to reverse with some other polls, but if it goes negative approval again, the impeachment was a major failure. Especially if the slide continues with independents.

But only you can see it go from 83.8% to 84.7% for Dems and from 44.5% Indy to 42.8% Indy and argue the drop is with Dems and not Indy.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Impeachment is also swinging away from impeaching according to Nate silvers newest poll graph with 47.1 for and 46.5 against.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/

So, polls for Trump this week were relatively a lot more favorable than the couple weeks before.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

NFUN posted...

i wouldn't trust IBD at all. they really live up to their incidental acronym

Suffolk/USA Today rated A- with .5 dem bias.

IBD A/B with .8 R bias.

Fox News A- with 1.5 Dem bias.

According to Nate Silver.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Polls are so all over the place right now for the presidency, I love it. Lol

USA today/suffolk Trump beating Biden, Sanders, Warren, Bloomberg, Buttgieg in the general all by +3 to + 10.

IBD yesterday has Trump beating Sanders, Warren, Bloomberg, Buttgieg. Losing to Biden.

FoxNews has Trump losing to Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttgieg, Bloomberg.

I know they mean nothing but always funny to see how polls are all over the place lol.

Morning Consult which has polled presidential favorability all year has gone from at points -18 presidential approval (October) to -6 this week.

USA Suffolk has Trump -2 in approval. FoxNews -8. Both this week.

So have to wonder if this week with the impeachment happening and winding down if we are seeing the impeachment process hurt Dems chances or not.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Jakyl25 posted...

What would constitute losing a debate in your mind

It is subjective. But, Biden can barely get thru random speeches let alone a debate against Trump. Warren's ideas are just too far left to hit with the average person and she lacks the charisma of Sanders.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Can't see Trump losing a debate versus Biden or Warren.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

No credit card has the charge on it. Amazon and ebay weren't ordered from my accounts.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

KingButz posted...

Maybe a family member got a gift for your child

My child is a boy.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Wasn't ordered through my ebay or my amazon.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

I dunno. It came from Real Merch Limited in UK. It's a barbie.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

That came from overseas.

Um, what should I do? lol

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

GildedFool posted...

Uhhh, literally no-one expected a close vote. Every single poll that dropped in 2019 showed a conservative majority.

Where are American's even getting this bullshit from?

Nowhere have I seen that blowout predicted.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Can't they federally try some of the pardoned.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

skullbone posted...

You asked another user this questions so I came into the topic to answer it. I just thought it was funny that someone who's clearly an Xbox fanboy was accusing someone else of being a fanboy for saying "I have no interest in Xbox".

I definitely remember your KH topic you were mad that KH3 was on Xbox but you couldn't play the Story So Far on Xbox also. I remember it clearly because you were acting pretty childish which was out of character for you.

You are mixed up. Trust me.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Waluigi1 posted...

I mean... you're pretty clearly upset <_<

Highly doubt it. Sitting at work reading articles on websites and texting my fiancee. Pretty relaxed. Rebutting someone doesn't mean you are upset, bud.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

skullbone posted...

Says the guy who threw a pissy fit when he couldn't play Kingdom Hearts on his Xbox. I didn't even badmouth Xbox or Microsoft and I've said multiple times that if they put out some good games I'd gladly buy an Xbox. I even had an Xbox One and enjoyed playing the few games I had.

It's a shame you take it so personally when someone says something as neutral as "I can play Xbox games on PC"

You are the one calling something worthless repeatedly. Not me. And, nope, didn't throw a "pissy fit" (whatever that is) over kingdom hearts. I said I would be pissed if Final Fantasy 7 Remake was a full PlayStation Exclusive as sites were reporting it as when initially announced due to the direction of Square with Xbox and how that wouldn't make sense and be a slap in the face to the gamers on Xbox. I said I had zero problem if it was time exclusive and lo and behold it is time exclusive.

I own 3 Xboxes, a PS4, and a Switch. I don't think I am the one who gets salty and take things personally. I am not the one running in here to tell everyone how worthless a system is and how bad buying one is because of the history of a company that you can only buy the games on PC you are deeming makes the console worthless because of their consumer friendly policies.

You are basically saying that consumers should push companies to be anti consumer because being consumer friendly makes you not want to spend money on their product.

I bet you are like why should I pay for Netflix when I can find someone else's account I can use. Netflix is worthless to buy a subscription! But Theoretical Subscription A (HBO Max for giggles) is a great subscription because they lock it specifically to one user so I had to buy a subscription! HBO Max is definitely worth the money. Why would anyone be loyal to Netflix when you can just use someone else's account!

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

skullbone posted...

Yeah if there were more PC gamers they'd realize how completely pointless the Xbox is

I am sorry that your wife cheated on you with Microsoft. I hope you recovery.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Backwards compat, sure, but what about forwards?

If hypothetical Xbox Series X1.0 comes out in 2020, 2.0 in 2021, 3.0 in 2022, theyre still going to have to develop with 1.0 in mind, and then the purpose of 2.0 and 3.0 etc is greatly diminished.

When game development can take 4 years to make towards one spec of console, this is an awful idea.

Not how it works anymore. They just put in options to downgrade the settings ala computers. Same as wow can run on a rtx 2080 or a gtx 960. Etc.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

No way does this happen, thatd be a disaster for game development

They are saying everything will be compatible forever going forward.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

MoogleKupo141 posted...

I think in this hypothetical situation were discussing the law would change through proper channels to incorporate the professionals were discussing.

Your hypothetical from any crime to possibly free based on a professional opinion will never happen.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Probably the coolest thing ofc is that all peripherals from Xbox One carry over to the Series X. All controllers, saves, subs, backward compatibility, etc. Also, the new Series X controller works on PC and Xbox One even also.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

MoogleKupo141 posted...

laws can change

do you think our current justice system is 100% perfect?

No but any changes and evolution need to happen via the proper channels by legislation and decree. They are likely not less perfect than any supposed professionals are.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Jakyl25 posted...

There are professionals that can help determine this. There are steps between full incarceration and freedom.

There are laws and justice that can determine if someone should not have parole or retain their life also.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Waluigi1 posted...

This is fucking confusing... are you implying that this thing they just announced, the Xbox Series X(terrible confusing name), is not the next gen xbox? And they'll also be releasing two more new next gen consoles next year/in the future??

It isn't entirely confirmed yet 100% but Scarlett was never a console name. It was the plan for next generation consoles. Anaconda being the upper tier system. Lockhart being the lesser specced system. They want the strongest console possible and an entry level console to get the cheapest price of entry also.

Series X appears to be the Anaconda console. And Lockhart is rumored to be the Series S. But, this isn't entirely confirmed right now.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

MoogleKupo141 posted...

if you somehow knew for sure that he was rehabilitated, why not? What would keeping him in prison accomplish?

The not breaking down of your societal system and rules of law. Just because you think someone may be rehabilitated does not mean they are.

If a guy molests and rapes 34 young children under the age of 7, are you going to let him out of jail if he appears rehabilitated? How the fuck can you even determine that and quantify that in a way that could go across the spectrum fairly?

A lot of crimes should err more to rehabilitation than retention. A lot. Especially non violent crimes. But, an arbitrary if you were sentenced to death/life without parole but you appear to be rehabilitated you get out? What? Some crimes have repercussions that extend past what you may have learned from them. You aren't gonna let Hitler live peacefully in your town if he appeared rehabilitated for the Holocaust. Hell, they are still taking down members of the German Army just for carrying out orders from their superiors regarding it here and there to this day.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

ninkendo posted...

I'm still banking on this being the last xbox console and it just being a game service going forward

They will have a shorter upgrade cycle ala phones likely going forward.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Jakyl25 posted...

If he is, then yes, free him.

That's crazy.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Jakyl25 posted...

Corrik already kind of called us hypocrites on this based on what we were arguing earlier about the guy being federally executed, but theres a difference between arguing for a criminals life and arguing for their freedom.

If he is rehabilitated why not according to yinz? That said, this is an example of why pardons just undermine the legal process by nature of even existing.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

skullbone posted...

Oh whoops I forgot they have the better customer support team! Silly me!

Gamepass is good but I can use it on PC.

I mean if you want to pledge loyalty based on a controller and customer support that's great but those are pretty minor things. These consoles are just vehicles for video games for me and Sony is providing more options. A PS4 is mandatory to play certain games, an Xbox just isn't anymore if you have a good PC.

So because Xbox is consumer friendly you would never support their console because they are? That makes sense I guess!

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Sony has been relatively anti-consumer this generation.

Gamepass is by far the best deal in all of gaming right now.

Best controller.

Best customer support and you can literally pay for GP/XBL for free using their ecosystem.

I mean, you can't even understand how someone can prefer it? Come on now.


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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

MoogleKupo141 posted...

where is somewhere of importance ?

NPD

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

MegamanX posted...

you say that but XBONE was used as a category

XO anywhere of importance.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Xiahou Shake posted...

And they'll likely have it! Still expect them to be in a similar position as they've been this gen, though. I respect MS's business strategy more than either of the other Big 3 members but their very open approach means they have literally no true exclusives (at minimum, everything they do comes to PC now) which unfortunately are what get people to buy branded hardware.

The main problem is that PS fanboys will never main Xbox. They will find reasons to not get it. PlayStation is planning to release their games on PC also now I think.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Xiahou Shake posted...

I'm still getting over that its final design is just straight up a lil' PC, lol. Like that's been the case architecturally speaking for consoles for a bit but now all pretense is gone.

He said to sacrifice design for power. This gave the console the most power. They want the strongest console.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Oh by the way, this console was never called Scarlett. It was called Anaconda. Scarlett is the next generation of consoles which includes Anaconda and Lockhart.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Bane_Of_Despair posted...

I never said they do, just that it's way cooler and hey they could have broken that trend by sticking with it

Their business model prefers to use this way. Lockhart will likely be Series S.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Ashethan posted...

Maybe you should stop getting your propaganda from state-sponsored Fox News?

Is that what I do? Lmfao.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Ashethan posted...

When a program benefits the poor it's 'Free Stuff'

When a program benefits the rich, it's 'Capitalism!'

Kind of funny how that works. You give relief to students trying to earn an education, and it's "DIRTY SOCIALISM!" But you give subsidies to millionaires trying to buy a yacht and it's "THE BEST THING EVER"

This is about as dumb as it sounds. Stop getting your propaganda from Facebook.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

TheRock1525 posted...

Tell that to my mom, who's current getting 40% of my dad's.

He earned it for her.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

ShadowDoomBlaze posted...

Its done under general anesthesia. Thats the easy part.

Taking 3 laxatives the day before is whats annoying.

2 ways to do it as far as I have seen. The way I did it was a lot easier than my fiancee's. I believe her insurance didn't cover the way I did it.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Bane_Of_Despair posted...

I don't even care about the number thing so much

Scarlett was just way cooler, I get why in the long run with further products "Series ___" would be more official and better for the brand but it's just kind of lame

They never use their code names. Scorpio anyone

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Murphiroth posted...

Nah it's just a bad name. It's the Wii U all over again and casual folks will be unsure if it's a new Xbox or just an upgrade to the Xbone.

Microsoft isn't doing traditional console cycles anymore. They are doing how phones do iterations. Expect a new Xbox series x2 in 2 years and etc

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Yes. I need one every 5 years now. And, yes, put to sleep for it.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Bane_Of_Despair posted...

Corrik surely even you can find humor in it

Xbox -> Xbox 360 -> Xbone -> Xbox SAD -> Xbox SEX

I guess?

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

The reveal for the new Xbox on TGA was likely a bad idea. They got to devote very little time to it unfortunately.

As far as some concerns, it does sit horizontal also. The design is because Spencer said to maximize performance over design and because the tower format is the most efficient design for cooling and quiet operation that exists.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained

Oh nevermind Life is Strange is out. It leaves today and I am at work on a double today. I thought it went on Monday. Oh well.

Maybe I will end up purchasing it.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Bloodstained