Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

ctesjbuvf posted...

Halt the votes on Ben. If he is truthful there is absolutely merit to hearing the remaining night actions.

Yeah I just got excited >_>

##Unvote:

just until we get the full picture last night. We still don't know how/why a kill was prevented.

Who wants to talk about Flavor meta now?!

Buddy?! I called that shit from minute 1.

The fact that he's claiming not scum is still concerning, but it means there can only be 2 scum out there, because if there were 3 + Ben then game would have ended, right?

Either way he wins WITH scum so we take the guaranteed shot every time.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I'm also going to have to continue to consider that you're wearing a Lopen mask and presenting a fake guilty scan now that we are possibly at Mylo

I would like to reconsider this portion of my post in light of recent events.

##Vote: Ben

UltimaterializerX posted...

Yes guilty on Ben.

I really want to believe you because I've been on his ass for days now, but if this is another gambit of yours I'd advise removing your vote before a 3 man scum team hammers.

I'm also going to have to continue to consider that you're wearing a Lopen mask and presenting a fake guilty scan now that we are possibly at Mylo

Guilty on Ben? I fucking knew it.

Not voting just yet though, we're at mylo and if Ulti is on a 3 man scum team a mislynch is GG.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Thanks

I feel like trolling FD for awhile. I deserve to play with my food.

So you're the scum wearing a Lopen mask? Is that what you're saying right now? Because that's what I'm hearing with these patently false inferences of yours.

UltimaterializerX posted...

There arent two roles on town that give out friendly stuff at night, so take a wild guess what it means buddy.

No one else has claimed a role that gives out things at night so how should I know? You sure as shit don't have a guilty scan on me if that's what you're getting at.

PunishedBen posted...

Yes I received it

Excellent, yet another indication that the redirection was a one off ability.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I wasnt neighbored last night.

Ah, then I'm confused what led to this:

UltimaterializerX posted...

And now that I know I can trust Ben completely (more on that later),

I originally assumed Ben would just neighbor kirby again, as discussed yesterday, but then you said this and it made it sound like you were involved in the chat logs that you were requesting ?

I don't see how any of this relates to a guilty scan reveal, but here's what I have so far:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/a/a5c206d9.jpg

Anyways my action doesn't really affect anything so I can say that I gave my love to Ben last night.
Action was successful etc. It'll be interesting to see if he got it or not

ctesjbuvf posted...

Relatively few options that could be given most powers are confirmable. So what do you think?

The most likely ones are Blade and Ulti. It's easy to fake cop because you can just reveal innocent scans on anyone who isn't an ally, and for doctor you just have to claim to have protected someone who didn't die. In the case of Blade there was actually a no kill yesterday so it would also involve submitting a no kill and pretending to have made the correct save.

The two alternatives is that there were 7 vanillas?
Or that scum is simply claiming their own roles and Lopen had a non vanilla role that is just lost to time?

It's messy, but we need either Kirby or Blade to help determine what happened last night.l

My biggest takeaway from MI's flip is that is 6 vanillas confirmed by flip. To me that means Lopen was almost certainly NOT a vanilla and someone masquerading as Lopen's role.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Can you check with the host and see if you're allowed to upload all your chats in full to like, a google doc or something? Copy-pasting in topic would be obnoxious.

I feel like this would fall under the paraphrasing rule, if it were up to me. But it's not up to me so we'll see what we can get away with :D

Hell yeah, no kill #3!

Please keep in mind that if there are 3 scum then we're still at Mylo so be careful about putting any votes down.

If there are only 2 scum then we're plenty safe.

Maniac64 posted...

Oh this is the first I've heard of ANMA confirmed as continuing! Awesome!

I may have spoken too soon? I was basing that off a reddit comment, but haven't found independent confirmation like i've seen with Face Jam and F**k Face

But on their latest episode description it says "Follow us at anarchymeanything.com for updates." so I guess we'll switch that one to a "maybe".

foolm0r0n posted...

you're f'd

i'm f'd

Face Jam rebranded as 100% Eat, got to keep the rights to all their old episodes, can keep the same RSS feed and is proceeding with a Patreon model. So that's at least one great thing that survived.

Edit: Similarly F**kFace podcast lives on as Regulation Podcast. Though it might have a new RSS feed?

Edit Edit: ANMA as well but I don't really listen to that one. Eric is new podcast overlord?

MI with the ninja -_-

in before Blade shows up and switches to Ben and our fate is in RNG God's hands

Kirby321 posted...

And what about all the times he's brought up posts from previous topics to make conclusions about who is town?

Does none of that mean anything to you?

I can testify that every neighbor chat I've had with Ben was us rereading posts and trying to solve the game. You guys didn't see that, but if you ever wondered why Ben always comes into each day with screenshots and analyses of previous posts, it's because he's summarizing his findings from the neighbor chats.

You assertion being that it is completely impossible for him to be trying hard as scum?

Anyways it doesn't seem like it's going to happen anyways so you're getting your wish.

Kirby321 posted...

They may not be well-thought-out, but every justification he gave lined up with his intents.

I don't think I agree, and I really want to believe that a Town ben doesn't focus on haymakers immediately after almost throwing the end game in Toy Story Mafia by trying to do way too much.

Kirby321 posted...

Because he lied about his role? Bro lied about his role in Toy Story Mafia and almost got Lea killed

It's not just the lie, it's the REASON for the lie. And it wasn't just ONE lie, it was layers of lies.

Lie to neighbors about having to perform a chant so he could be BP
Convinces neighbors to Lie on his behalf when it was time for town to full claim.
Lie two more times when you pressed him about his claim not being truthful.
Not even present the same claim he told you when he finally "came clean". He even hard the nerve to seem upset that you outed him as "bp", so he was going to stick to that lie even after being forced to claim neighborizer, until it made us suspicious of him.

lies on lies on lies.

PunishedBen posted...

FD, why aren't you voting MI?

Because I think you are scum and I would prefer to lynch you over the two others.

I've said this I don't know how many times.

Quick, who did you bet on each night?

UltimaterializerX posted...

If IGCD is scum, hes their extra kill

I suppose Lopen kidnapped himself then?

Kirby321 posted...

It would be comically embarrassing to start a special on Blade just for us to completely turbo off a cliff if he ends up being town. That would be... incredibly bad.

And yet, I feel way better about lynching Blade than I do MI. (Or Ctes or especially Ben, for that matter)

Somebody talk me out of this because I just might put my vote on Blade.

I think if we lynched blade today and he flipped town doctor I would completely lose the will to press on. If someone is hiding behind Lopen's role then it's something that will have to be dealt with at some point, but this doesn't feel like the time for a hail mary.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Where was thus argument doing the "can they coexist" part lol.

I'm pretty sure I've already said something to the effect. Maybe not IMMEDIATELY when you claimed, but upon reflection. What you claimed could coexist with IGCD. But I also just don't really think it coexists with itself -_-

It's too bad the gambling mechanic you're claiming is based upon making an unlikely prediction instead of a simple coin flip or you might have "won" 2.5 times already.

Kirby321 posted...

The question is whether or not those players, if scum, would agree to a gambit like that.

The main thing in IGCD's favor is that if his whole thing was a gambit it started day 1, when he claimed Vigi with a sidequest. I don't see that. A regular ass town vigilante exists in SO many games that you are effectively just deleting yourself to fake claim a town vigi, with or without a sidequest.

I still regret not making IGCD type ##Kill before the sidequest was complete, just to verify the quest was even part of it, but I just can't see him staking his entire claim on no town vigi.

And sure, you can count Ctes if he's town? But if that role is real then imo it only counts for like 5% of a vigi because that's how often I think it would even come to pass. So instead we have a regular vig with a 3 day delay (or 5 days when you screw up twice) and maybe 5% of a vigi in ctes?

Kirby321 posted...

Gonna be honest. If there's one person I'd choose to lynch right now completely disregarding roles, it would be Blade.

I don't know if anyone agrees with me, nor do I know if anyone else would be willing to share the shame if Blade indeed flips Doctor... but Blade just feels like the correct answer. Especially given how disorienting this game has been and how inexplicable the scum night actions have been (that we know of at least).

Vanishing Lopen? Killing Isquen and SBell? Bus Driving Ctes and Red? None of those seem optimal in the slightest. I feel like scum doesn't make those decisions unless they know they can hide within the chaos well enough to escape suspicion.

I absolutely 100% can see it. He through town for a loop in Bloodbourne and I think he would absolutely embrace the chaos after falling down 2 strong roles days 1/2.

But as much as I can see it I just don't think I can vote for that today. It might be right, but I just don't have the guts to do it.

PunishedBen posted...

IGCD being scum requires Blade being scum though, right?

Yes, it only works if there was a deliberate No Kill last night.

..

well actually it also works if Death was the kill target, but I think we can discount that?

Two of the towniest people, Kirby and IGCD, are the only ones without a vote down (not counting ctes). I guess better they decide than the scummiest looking people.

I've made my case against all 3 of the vote leaders and could see any of them flipping scum. But I very much doubt that all 3 of them are scum, if only because that would be too easy. So it stands to reason that it's still possible to miss today.

I feel like we're still just circling around the MI lynch and I'm not sure how it makes me feel. Logically all the arguments are there for MI to be scum, but that's always going to be the case for the final claimed nilla after all the other vanilla flip town. I'm trying to reconcile the defeatist attitude from earlier and how that contrasts with this game. Not only were scum lynched back to back on day 1 and 2, but there was a kill prevented night 1 and both of the roles were incredibly powerful. That is definitely a strong justification for anyone to feel a bit demoralized. But SINCE then we've had 3 mislynches, a bunch of night actions that have felt sub optimal and a series of night kills that, to put it mildly, are baffling.

So does a scum STILL feel demoralized when you consider how well things have been going for them since day 2 ended? I guess it's possible, especially if you felt like you've just been going through the motions but never realistically had a chance to win?

it's not enough to make me actively oppose MI's lynch, but it's enough to give me pause. I would still prefer Ben in any case.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I still think they are all quite likely.

Wouldn't this mean you consider Ben, Blade, Chang, IGCD, Kirby and MI to all be equally likely of being taunted by Mzero?

I think the most likely would be MI personally, but we can't know for sure if MZero's death was even taunt related.

ctesjbuvf posted...

You have IGCD, Chang, MI left.

I was making a long post pointing out the logic, but I think it would be quicker to say that only Me, You and Ulti can be confirmed to have not killed MZero via Taunt. I'm pretty sure the logic exists, however unlikely it would have to be, for everyone else.

My canister reaching Red.
Ulti being in jail.
You being under the effect of some kind of bus/redirection (which is hard to say how it would interact) are the only certainties that would have impacted MZero's death if it was taunt related. Everything else is circumstantial.

So it's a legit terrible idea, but the only way we could 100% guarantee ctes has another shot to prove himself would be to no lynch today. Assuming another kill isn't prevented at night that gives us 8 tomorrow and either 9 votes or 7 votes depending on ctes, but either way enough to outvote a potential 3 scum.

We could also simply lynch scum, but I've felt pretty good about all the recent lynch targets and they have all flipped town so I don't have a lot of confidence in that. Anyways I couldn't convince town to NL when it was objectively the correct play, so fat chance it happens when it's clearly a bad idea.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I haven't even been one to suggest I could confirm myself if I got the double vote. Ben was. You agreed to yourself Kirby. Just right now.

Then vote me for agreeing to that while adding that scum would want to mislynch me before the thing you yourself said was confirmable potentially happened.

We have to assume there are 3 scum, so the issue is that even if you are town you can't afford to bet your vote again unless we lynch scum today. I still think Ben is our best chance of that happening.

Enchantress posted...

Votals
[4] Ctes - Blade, MI, (Ulti), Ulti, Kirby
[2] MI - Kirby, Ben, (Ulti)
[1] Ben - (Ulti), FD
[0] Ulti - (Blade)
[0] Chang - (Ulti)
[0] FD - (Ulti)

With nine alive it takes five to lynch. Day ends Wednesday, May 15th at 6 PM EST

Did you steal Ctes' role and bet on NoKill last night?

Diabolical!

Kirby321 posted...

My thoughts are currently 100% invested in trying to figure out who I need to jail tonight.

I would suggest Chang, personally.

Feel free to use my suggestion as a misdirect and do something else, but Chang has never been blocked, is likely town so the possibility of protection will prevent scum from targeting him, and if he's scum the possibility of being blocked will cause him to be reluctant to send the kill tonight.

UltimaterializerX posted...

FD is one of the best endgame players

I don't think this is true. I don't have a strong "gut" for finding scum on vibes and generally consider myself a weak scumhunter. I just try not to get distracted by the kind of poor logic that typically derails days. Last game we had a sizeable lead and a pretty secure PoE so I just stuck to it even when the red and death lynches didn't feel exactly right. This game the PoE feels much less clear, so many of the vanillas have already flipped vanilla which is just crazy, I was particularly shocked by red's flip.

But if it were on my shoulders I'm still lynching Ben first. As bad as Ctes' claim is and as well as MI can fit with any particular scum team I keep coming back to the lies surrounding Ben's claim and the strange logic behind them. If a Ben lynch is absolutely going nowhere then I'll move my vote later, but for now it feels the most right.

ctesjbuvf posted...

It would certainly matter if I got told a member of scum with certainty.

Which would require betting your life which you should NOT do. As far as I'm concerned you should pretend betting your life isn't even a part of your role.

But even IF you bet your life successfully you would then have to bet your vig shot the following night successfully.

To then be able to take the shot on the 3rd night.

So by all means go for it, I can't wait to see these fireworks on Night 8??

It's a shitty, slow role.

:O I can't believe you just said that, Ulti

ctesjbuvf posted...

But can you really not at least see how less players left and more claims open gives the role better chances of guessing correctly?

Yes, obviously, but it also serves to be even more and more restrictive on the NKs having less options and so many things to dodge.

But also your claimed role just sucks so much that it...wouldn't matter?

UltimaterializerX posted...

FD. Does his flavor track?

Neither Ben or Ctes flavors feel like good matches for what they are claiming. Now it's possible they are just the exceptions to an otherwise flavor perfect game. It doesn't help that they both ended up claiming in the most bizarre and terrible ways. Ben with all the lying and Ctes with all the reluctance to even claim at all for no reason. (yes, no reason, your belief that fully claiming hurts your role is just wrong)

But yeah, I have legitimately discussed this at length already -_-

ctesjbuvf posted...

This post is actually super frustrating after I spent a day saying exactly this but people kept saying "what are you talking about you can still do all the same things" lol.

It does not have anything to do with the fact that you claimed. If you are telling the truth and and the role is real, then the role just sucks and it takes luck almost to get anything out of it. It would basically never be worthwhile to bet your own life and the rewards otherwise are meager. It's just a bad role.

Your insistence that scum would somehow be hurt by your claim that you can benefit from predicting the night kill after 4 failed attempts to predict the night kill is the part that doesn't make sense.

Kirby321 posted...

we only know for sure that MZero didn't taunt me

Honestly almost everyone ctes listed could have been taunted, even you. Your jailer role is faster than MZero's taunt, so you could have still jailed ulti and had only the NK taunted by MZero. Now imo you're hella town for a bunch of other reasons, but the point remains that nearly anyone could have been MZero's target.

Kirby321 posted...

Blade strikes me as the kind of guy to absolutely go for a NK deliberately just to fuck with town.

It was absolutely a ballsy Blade play that won them Bloodborne Mafia so it's not impossible. But it's also just not as likely as the others imo.

We still have to assume there are 3 scum and make sure to lynch scum either today or tomorrow. Even if Blade is one of them I think he'll have a scummate that's easier to hit.

Or you just can't even understand why what you're proposing doesn't fit from a town perspective because you don't have a town perspective.

PunishedBen posted...

My death would confirm them if we all stayed silent about it.

It would NOT.

Do you know for a FACT that scum team does not have access to a strongman or any ability that can deal with a BP? If you do then you know more than me.

Because your entire plan hinges on something you should have no way to know for sure as well as the assumption that you successful convinced them all that your were a bulletproof neighborizer who required them to cast a spell on your behalf to make the BP part real.

And hell, with two other claimed ways to stop a nightkill what would it have even meant to the people you lied to if there was a night with no kill? They will all have it in their head that you might have been responsible which would lead them down a false rabbit hole?

It's a colossally awful play with next to no redeeming logic.

A REAL town neighborizer breadcrumbs their target and if they are going to lie they tell a lie that will draw a bullet if the person they neighborized is scum.

So yeah, it has very little to do with your flavor of Buddy (which is still awful and wrong) and everything to do with your play of the role and logical justification around it.

I did want to come back to this post really quick because it made me laugh so much.

UltimaterializerX posted...

They both fall into the category of sending messages at night.

One role spends the entire night talking to the person they targeted.

The person I target receives a PM from the host letting them know they received my love. I do not "send messages".

UltimaterializerX posted...

If I had either role, Id counterclaim the other.

Then you should probably have counter claimed Blade immediately this game. You both claimed roles that have a "c" and an "o" in them. Practically identical!