Lurker > Corrik7

Waluigi1 posted...

My cousin is having a wedding in a week and I never RSVPd or tried to get the day off. It's mostly from forgetting but I just don't feel comfortable going to an enclosed event like that with potentially hundreds of people all crammed together. And I know my grandpa is a hard core Trumper and thinks the whole thing is a hoax so he won't have a mask and he'll probably try to convince everyone else not to wear one. Ugh.

I have been to 3 weddings since this started. None of them had masks at all, despite any recommendations, posted rules, or state guidelines/regulations. I doubt that one will either.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

red13n posted...

Are you talking Trump?

Because its very possible hes actually worth negative dollars while trying to proclaim himself a billionaire.

The NYT article claiming he has over a billion in debt claims he also has over at least 3.5 billion in assets. That's not even close to negative. It would put his debt to value ratio at like 33%. Which isn't too bad at all.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

DoomTheGyarados posted...

You don't understand how a billion dollars of debt, or 1,000,000,000 dollars in other words is a big deal? Really?

Chris, probably half the people here have more debt to value ratio than him. If not more.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

I have no idea why people think the debt thing is such a big deal. I think people doing that don't live in real life or something. Having debt is pretty normal.

Like, I guess they are reporting he has over a billion dollars worth of debt. And, I still can't figure out why this matters at all lol.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Seems Amazon has a decent amount of movies on there that I didn't realize. I watched Black Box also. It was decent too.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Suprak the Stud posted...

Also true and trafalgar currently has a C rating because while they were good in 2016 they were abysmal in 2018.

Harris is only a C+ btw so that isnt a great poll necessarily either.

Harris was a +11 anyways not +9 from what I saw.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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Wow a trump +1 in michigan. Granted it is Trafalgar which is republican led but it was also the most accurate poll of PA down the stretch in 2016 also.

New alaska poll kinda makes it harder to argue alaska being a possible flip in the Senate or presidentially.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

TheRock1525 posted...

Like I'm looking at your home state of Pennsylvania, and the unadjusted version had Clinton at 46.3% and the "skewed" version had her at 46.5%. She ended up with 47.5% of the vote.

Either I am woefully misremembering everything and we argued a vast space of nothingness in 2016 or his skews are changed from what they were in 2016.

His skews are stating it skewed in favor of Trump by a full %, and I do not remember that being even in the stratosphere of accurate for then.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

if you retweet something without comment, the implication is that you endorse it in some way, yes.

Except why? I mean I don't Twitter but I link to shit all the time, not because I agree with it. I assume it's just like sharing on Facebook. Because I think it's funny. Because I think it's stupid. Because I think it's accurate. Because I think it's self-ownage. Usually it's self explanatory

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

xp1337 posted...

rock as someone who has been in many arguments over how 538 works with corrik trust me this isn't going to go anywhere

538's "skews" are adjustments based on how a polling firm has historically over/underrated a party. If a firm consistently puts out results showing one party a point or two ahead of the actual results... it accounts for that. Like how we laugh at Rassmussen putting out absolutely crazy numbers that in no man's land until they hurriedly start releasing polls closer to what everyone else is saying in the last week or two so that they can try and point to those polls and claim they're a very serious pollster.

Silver isn't out there going "i think clinton should be up a point or two in this poll; just a gut feeling" lmfao.

And his skews were wrong. He was adding +1 or +2 to polls that had Clinton up already +10 and shit. He had polls that were oversampling the electorate for Democrats already to create their polls and adding an additional skew. Almost 7 out of 10 polls if not more always skewed to Clinton. No matter how clearly a Clinton outlier it was.

The polls are adjusted every year so a historical skew in favor of someone never made sense. And, it is likely why he stopped posting skews. If he hasn't skewed in 2016, he would have had a more accurate model. Simple as that. People from this year to then are always pointing to the skewed poll numbers for Clinton to why this year's polls don't matter. And it's why it is exhausting trying to explain to them they are insane to think Trump will win this year. They either call you a liar when showing you the skewed numbers or if they get it explain this is why polls can't be trusted because people can skew them.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

TheRock1525 posted...

Incorrect. The expectation was the more conservative leaning libertarian options would grab 5% of the popular vote and they fell way short of that.

And I need you to read this so I'm going to bold it: undecided voters broke heavily for Trump on the day of election. This one of the key reasons for Trump's over performance on election day and his ability to make up the gap on election day. It had nothing to do with skewing polls.

I am sure you know the mindset of people who voted for who.

And, I have yet to see any Republican who said they were going to vote for a third party in 2016. I know many liberals in PA that voted for Gary Johnson however.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/1317092373516701696?s=21

lmfaoooooooooo

I honestly don't get the retweet argument either.

You don't have to be retweeting something because you agree with it.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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TheRock1525 posted...

Because models are about probabilities, not being "right." Hence why there was still a 16% chance Trump would win Wisconsin. If there's a 16% chance you miss an attack in Fire Emblem you don't go "IMPOSSIBLE!"

His purpose is to analyze all the data and come up with a model that predicts the winner.

What you are saying is that the 99% Hillary models were just as right as his because they predicted 1% of the time Trump would win and it was that 1%.

That's not the purpose of the models. The purpose of the models is to correctly predict with all available data.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

TheRock1525 posted...

You keep saying "HE SKEWED THE POLLS" but the unadjusted average in Wisconsin had Clinton with 46.4% of the vote and the "skewed" version had Clinton with... 46.4% of the vote. The issue was once again an under performance by the third party candidates and a massive amount of undecided voters (Trumps average was 40-41%).

You don't have to raise the % to skew the poll. You can lower %s elsewhere.

Under performance by the third parties? If the third parties did more, Hillary would have lost by more. They were siphoning her votes. Why do you think the Democrats spent so long working to get the third parties off the ballots in Wisconsin and PA and such this year.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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TheRock1525 posted...

Like earlier they posted an article about historical data should have shown that Wisconsin was a swing state and not part of the fabled blue wall in the midwest, as shown by the incredibly tight victories for Gore, Kerry, and Trump.

He didn't have Wisconsin and PA as toss ups because he skewed the polls.

If you literally unskew the polls in 2016, his model gets a good bit closer to being right. Being closer than the rest doesn't make you right. And don't start some odds nonsense argument to say models can never be wrong either.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Mr Lasastryke posted...

why are you still posting here then

Easy way to pass some free time. Why not

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Seanchan posted...

Well, that's not good news. Maybe FIFA shouldn't have been doing all those international soccer matches...

Yeah, it's weird because now that USA has basically run the gamut already all these other countries will catch back up likely with cases and we will likely all end up around the same spot give or take some. Or the other countries will continue locking down repeatedly. Maybe both.

In vaccine news

https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/16/pfizer-says-it-hopes-to-seek-authorisation-for-its-covid-19-vaccine-in-mid-november?fromBreakingNews=1

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Theres a whole lot wrong with the entire post, but this part is the easiest to rebut. Corrik, people wrote entire articles in 2016 saying Nate Silver was being irresponsible in giving Trump the odds he was.

Literally what are you talking about

You guys love to argue nonsense always.

Here we go yet again.

Silver's odds weren't as dismal as everyone's because he accounted for a PV/EV split which others did not and polling errors. His polling numbers were higher for Hillary due to his skews. If you remember, we very many times had a discussion about his skews and how I said his skews did not make sense a lot of the time. His skews are gone and Biden's lead is greater than Hillary's. However, the polls were deceivingly higher than for Hillary because of his skews. It is why we have articles left and right saying "no, Hillary isn't polling the same as Biden". Silver has unskewed his polls to show that difference.

You act like Silver is a God, and he is the only person that exists. If his terminology and findings aren't agreed upon that you are right. Wrong.









Like, you aren't superior to anyone just because you have your nose up Nate Silver's ass.

The reason Iowa is more 50/50 to Silver is because he learned from 2016 it is a presidential year and down balloting will happen. That's why despite the larger spread in polling iowa he sees it as close. However, the latest presidential polling in georgia has a very slight democrat favored coin flip as well. Hence why the georgia Senate race could follow georgia on its possible flip. If georgia goes blue, so will the Senate race. That's common sense.

And in the georgia Special, the democrat is out polling every single republican challenger 1 to 1, which will tighten when 1 republican exists but is a good sign for the democrat there.

Like it is kind of ridiculous that you guys argue everything that you are literally arguing against yourselves here.

You said har har we might get 52-53 seats. I analyzed how that is probabkt going to happen and how the Democratic Senate is basically a guarantee. And you are arguing against your own position now.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/us/politics/ben-sasse-trump.html

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/15/record-breaking-day-in-europe-with-highs-of-daily-covid-19-cases-in-germany-italy-and-pola

That would be like 160k in 24 hours in the US.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

North Carolina is 66 to 34 and considered a toss up everywhere.

Toss ups are polls within the margin of error.

If you read my own post, I stated who is favored to win them a lot of them because it is going to be a lot of down balloting from the election.

This is why you guys thought Tim Murphy would lose in 2016 in PA when I said he was a lock and acted just as superior as you are now. Election years = down ballot voting. A few not favored to win in 2016 by Nate Silver because he failed to realize this went on to win that year. Silver has changed his modeling some based on 2016. Notice how people who say Clinton had the same polling as Biden are right but wrong? Silver used to skew his polls all the time, and his Clinton skews made her lead look bigger than it really was last time.

A toss up is an election within the margin of error however. You can have favored toss ups. When you start to move outside the margins of error is when you get to the safe areas on predictions.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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TheRock1525 posted...

Nobody cares what his analysis is and nobody said they are coin flips either. Toss ups are races within the margin of error. Not sure if you are serious.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

It was aight. No boobs is a hard thing for a horror movie to overcome. Ending could have been better. Was decent.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Graham might be distancing in SC but all 4 of those races are tossups. What are you talking about.


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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

The one person said their new projection is +7 Dems.

Here is what we know. Dems need a +3 to gain the Senate with the WH.

Alabama is a lock for Repubs.
Arizona is a lock for Dem.
Colorado is a lock for Dem.
North Carolina is a lock for Dem.

Then we get all the tossups.

Iowa, Georgia, Maine, South Carolina, Alaska, Georgia Special, Montana.

The toss ups will VERY likely go in the direction of the Presidential vote.

Meaning Iowa, South Carolina, Montana will likely all end up red.

Maine will likely go blue.

The Georgia regular is a toss up. Alaska is likely red but we lack some polling there. The Georgia Special will not matter on the Presidential vote ultimately.

So the Senate is likely a wrap for the Dems. With potential to pick up a few stragglers.


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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

It took me forever to even find the movie on prime video. Starting it now tho.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/15/health/remdesivir-covid-who-trial-mortality/index.html

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

I'll watch it tonight or tomorrow.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

TheRock1525 posted...

I'm not watching the Town Halls but I heard someone asked Trump "Do you owe $400 million in taxes?" And his response was "No I don't owe Russia money."

Any truth to this?

Obviously not.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

LordoftheMorons posted...

Speaking of Mitch

https://twitter.com/josephzeballos/status/1316842777767018496?s=21

That article is out of context. He never says he won't put an agreed bill up for vote. He says they are putting up the skinnier bill up on the floor (cuz they are cuz the other bill isn't done).

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

There is a super hot girl behind Trump that agrees with everything he says with head nods and gee golly is she hot.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Back up to 60k cases a day in the US.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

You can do that stuff online but it is always better to talk to them in person and see what deals you can haggle out of them.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

DAY 10: The Haunting of Bly Manor (TV Series)
On Netflix

So I absolutely love The Haunting of Hill House (I'll probably make a small blurb about that later!) and was extremely excited for this follow-up series. There are strong horror elements in this, but it is absolutely a gothic romance, and it's an amazing one at that.

The Haunting of Bly Manor follows an American girl in the 80's moving to Britain to be a caretaker for a pair of kids in a creepy mansion. The kids act strangely, there are strange occurrences in the house, and it all seems decidedly random.

Nothing is random. Because this show is crafted so meticulously that each question you have will be answered by the end. It crams so many amazing details into this series and while it doesn't hit it's stride until episode 5, when episode 5 is done, it's a deluge of following through on every single thing they set up in the first four episodes, and it does it masterfully.

You shouldn't go in expecting a ton of scares. When they do scares, they do them effectively. When they want you to be unnerved, it does it effectively as well. But this is where you need to understand it's different from Hill House. The Haunting of Hill House is a story about coping with death, and moving on. Bly Manor is about acceptance of death.

It's a poignant look at just... acceptance. Death is inevitable. Death isn't fair. But death doesn't mean you need to give up. It's about embracing the beauty in life, and what you had, and not taking any of it for granted. In ways, it overlaps with those themes from Hill House, but it makes something stunning by weaving together each character's point of view of death. When Bly Manor is at its best, it creates something beautiful.

I don't want to get into it too much, but I could talk about it for hours. The Haunting of Bly Manor is a wonderful gothic romance with scares peppered in. Just watch it. It's better than anything American Horror Story craps out on a yearly basis.

Rating: 9.5/10

Definitely wasn't as high on Bly Manor as you were.

It is also based on a book.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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Morey steps down from the Rockets. China appeased.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

metroid composite posted...

Wait, people complain about grumpy old Luke? Like from star wars episode 8? But he was the best character in that movie....

Dot dot dot

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Okay, I'll at least admit Hillary Clinton probably would have won the election without the Comey letter, but the fact something like that could even derail it speaks words.

Doubtful

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

What's all this about Hunter Biden?

Either way not likely to do the damage that Hillary's e-mail controversies did since HB is not nearly as well-known.

People have already decided who they are voting for. The only way Biden could possibly lose the election is if he drops a racial slur bomb on live tv, but even then it would likely be handwaved away.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

red13n posted...

Trump is going to lose and the age of people forgetting how much they looked the other way in 2016 will end.

Lmfao

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

I am now watching The Nun, so I can officially say I've watched the entirety of The Conjuring Cinematic Universe.

Including La Llorona?

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/14/politics/pennsylvania-trump-2020-election/index.html

Lol where I live

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-05/cdc-says-coronavirus-can-spread-indoors-in-air-beyond-six-feet

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

I thought Child's Play remake was terrible.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

I have a weird question. Has anyone noticed a lot of Republicans complaining how they are polling them for who they are voting for this year and then posting on Facebook how they are fucking with the likely robots (lol) in their responses because it's annoying as fuck they are taking their time to poll them.

While they also every year, including this year, complain how the polls are inaccurate and don't reflect the truth and when you ask why... They always say "well who are they polling. Think about it. How many times have you been polled?".

Lol... Um... Lol.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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red13n posted...

Because theoretically it is easier to count smaller areas of the United States.

Census shouldn't be fucked with. Though it arguably is by counting illegal immigrants also.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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See quite a few people criticizing Nancy Pelosi based off her wolf blitzer interview today.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Why would they want to stop the count?

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Inviso posted...

How?

Like, you mentioned capping the transfer of estate wealth to 100k. Fine. But let's take Trump for example. Let's pretend that he's actually worth the billions of dollars he claims. If he dies, then Eric/Don Jr./Ivanka/Baron/Tiffany maybe all get 100k. However, each and every one of them has lived their entire life under the Trump umbrella and has been able to utilize the resources of their family to increase their wealth. Sure by the time their father dies, they will have less overall wealth, but they've still had a massive head start over someone who did not have that immense starting advantage.

But this doesn't really matter, since none of it helps to correct the wealth imbalance between black and white people. The two races are unequal, and that is a problem even if you start giving out UBI to everyone.

If they have over 100k in assets, they won't be able to receive anything from the estate.

The system alleviates the disparity over time. It will only take a generation or two before it's relatively even across the board.

I believe the California idea or whatever I saw which surely was nonsense cuz it is dumb was to give every African-American with a slave ancestor 250k or something. All you did was take those charts above and put African-Americans in the highest median wealth and exacerbate Latinos, while ignoring a lot of the White wealth is tied up in a small %.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37045/air-force-says-new-hypersonic-missile-will-hit-targets-1000-miles-away-in-under-12-minutes

This is cool and all I guess, but I can't see why we need weapons like these.

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)

Inviso posted...

Here's one of the other things, Corrik.

There is a racial disparity in wealth between black people and white people in this country. Even your own statistics (regardless of how accurate or inaccurate they are) agree with this.

There is also a massive wealth disparity between the rich and the poor in this country.

Unless your solution is: "we're going to fix wealth inequality by giving poor white people a specific sum of money, and giving black people a greater sum of money to bridge the racial wealth gap", then merely offering the same amount across the board does nothing to fix the racial wealth gap. And as a result, white people will continue to maintain an inherent advantage in wealth and opportunity.

Disparity will lessen by taking from the rich which is predominantly white

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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
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