Lurker > KamikazePotato

Man, I prefer that N9 way more to the one we have now (except Ganondorf).
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Auron's gonna get like 60%+ here and Alucard the other half of the division
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

The Wikipedia Badger Saga is incredible.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Hmm
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Thankfully, for the stats to 'make sense', he only needs 39%!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

To put this in perspective: using 2013 stats, Ike is currently projected to go about even with Prinny, a character he got 62.5% on back in 2010.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

charmander6000 posted...

Ike did barely defeat Proto Man and got 55% on Dr. Robotnik, he wasn't much above the fodderline.

Proto Man wasn't far below Ness back in 2010. His result against Ike in 2013 was almost exactly what the stats predicted.

Ness and Ike have had several contests so far where they performed very similarly. Phoenix Wright beat Marth cleanly and went even with Ike, and Marth has had good results too. There is no prior contest result that justifies just how badly Ike and Phoenix are going to look in the stats when all this shakes out.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Chris Redfield is currently projected to get about 63% against Cayde.

I trust that Kirby/Phoenix match less and less the more analysis I do.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Magus and Frog have done well this year, which is also a point in his favor.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I can't believe you people are still arguing Mario/Samus in 2018.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Yeah I think this is revisionist history. Kirby has done great against strong competition before. It's when he faces a strong Nintendo character that the Hierarchy apparently does him in.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

AxemRedRanger posted...

KP, how did you determine Ness's 2013 x-stats value? Locke and CATS round 1 then SFFed by Luigi sounds like a tough path to get anything out of.

Probably ripped it straight from 2010, where he had a straight path.

Some characters don't seem to ever change. Ness is apparently one of them!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Kingdom Hearts 2 didn't rank much higher in the Statz than KH1 when all was said and done. They're about as far apart as they were in Game of the Decade where KH2 won straight out.

Ness gets 55.33% on Shadow in 2013. He got 53.26% this year. So Shadow does a little better this year on Bowser/Kirby.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

LeonhartFour posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Ness currently gets 38% on Bowser. In 2013, he's projected to get 38% on Bowser.

what about Kirby

Bowser (2013c) has a strength of 35.94 against Base Link.
Kirby (2013c) has a strength of 35.60 against Base Link.
Bowser50.47%27,235
Kirby49.53%26,725
Bowser wins with 50.47% of the vote!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

LeonhartFour posted...

Well, I don't think the HIERARCHY always results in a lopsided SFF beatdown. Like I said, I think it helped FFIX beat KH1, and FFIX barely got 51%.

FF9 did really well that contest, so even if the HIERARCHY mattered, I doubt it was by much.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Ness currently gets 38% on Bowser. In 2013, he's projected to get 38% on Bowser.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Go away Red. You need to end up lower than this so Princess Peach can be the #2 in the division.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

While Shankar didn't give us any specifics in terms of what this all means for the series' overall story, he did inform us that he "acquired these (Devil May Cry) rights myself so the jabronis in Hollywood dont f*** this one up too." Shankar's financial investment should allow him more creative freedom, as he begins to build this wildly ambitious multiverse of his.

I'm on board.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

T H E P L A N (caps)
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Bowser is going to end up getting like, 3% more on Kirby than he did in 2005.

I really don't understand Nintendo.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Why is Yoshi just... such a clear step below what Bowser and Luigi have managed to do recently.

I'm guessing it's because he doesn't talk (you can't really put him in humorous situations like the other two) and maybe the Pokemon have usurped his lovable cutesy creature role.

Is he though? It still looks like he would easily beat Zero. Pikachu might do just as well on Bowser/Luigi (I think Yoshi is probably a little weaker than them, but yeah).
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Charizard's biggest overperformance that year was 46% against Mario which is totally bananas. Bowser looked good that year but not nearly that good.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Also, I feel this is now merely a "good" contest for Nintendo, not the unstoppable one that looked likely after the first two weeks.

Well, if you remove Alucard from the Division, Peach wins it.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

To be fair, 2010 Bowser is super inflated due to being stuck behind Charizard's bandwagon.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

up
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Boy am I glad I wasn't on The Show this time, because I would've been talking up Kirby's history as being way better than Bowser's.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Here's the real question to be asked:

Red. Over/under on Peach by the end of the match?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

tgs2 posted...

Ness really benefits from low votals and a small post-Undertale/LISA bump with those two games shining a bright light on Earthbound for the whole world. . Its not hard to see why Ness wins by that much. Fire Emblem was never worth too much. Smash is all Ike has going for him compared to Ness. To compare with another series character, Lucina at least has a tiny bump from FatesWakening being more well known compared to PoR/RD outside of the FE fandom. I am confident that Lucina > Ike 1v1 based on that alone even if it makes you raise an eyebrow.

1. There's no result to ever suggest that Earthbound benefits from small votals.
2. Lucina's 35% on Auron really isn't that great. These characters have all performed consistently better that in the past. Marth would do better than that and Phoenix already easily beat him.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Is there a reason why Kirby couldn't SFF Phoenix Wright: Guy best known for his Nintendo system games?

For the record this was thrown around in that match, and it was also right after that big Smash trailer
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

PrinceOfKoopas posted...

If Red is cutting now, can Alucard lose the match?

No
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

No because Cloud had 20+ results up until that point saying he would crush Mario, and there were very obvious reasons why - there was a huge site shift in 2003. There's not a single reason for Ike and Phoenix to have dramatically dropped in strength since 2013. Ike and Ness have been very consistently about equal over the years, and Phoenix has slightly boosted in most years, capping off his best results in 2013.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Hey, Red cut.

Maybe Peach won't be #2 in the division after all.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I mean, okay

What about the course of over 5 years, because lots of characters have stayed consistent from there, and the ones that haven't have had very specific reasons for boosting/decreasing

And 2013 alone implies nothing like this result happening
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

2008, 2010, and 2013. I can pull the all the examples and start explaining them to you.

How do we even get Stats from after 2013
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Maybe Phoenix Wright and Ike are just really weak.

Nah. We have a lot of results putting them around Ness in strength.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I think I'm going to have to entirely throw out the Phoenix/Kirby match when making stats. Ness currently gets like 60% on Ike or something.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3828-chaos-division-round-3-sonic-vs-ganondorf
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3843-chaos-division-final-sonic-vs-kirby

Such an obvious result today is.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

If you had to ask me if Kirby would do better against 2B (or other non-Nintendo characters) than Bowser, I would still pick Kirby.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

ShatteredElysium posted...

I have Bowser in my bracket at least and I'm on the leaderboard. Alucard not so much

I think Kirby is just one of those characters who blows out lesser characters and then doesn't sustain that against actual opposition. Kind of like Mega Man

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3843-chaos-division-final-sonic-vs-kirby
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5255-character-battle-ix-division-3-final-sephiroth-vs-big-boss

Not like he had much trouble doing well here. This is just a classic example of The Hierarchy at work.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Okay, hold up. No one is allowed to call pretty much anything in this contest obvious. Almost every person's bracket is in shambles.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I'm already considering how to adjust this nonsense in the stats (and it's not easy deciding how to).
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Perhaps it's too early to say this, but at the moment I'm feeling pretty good about my claim that everyone in Red's half of the division will come out of today looking terrible!

You're not too early. It's a correct claim.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Nintendo fans, I don't understand you.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Leonhart4 posted...

Looks like Red is gonna be weaker than Peach!

Just like everyone else in the division.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I'm going to officially call it now: this match is the biggest case of rSFF we've ever seen. Kirby did nothing but wreck everyone on his way here. Bowser had some good performances but nothing like what Kirby busted out. If you assume that Bowser=Kirby, Ness gets like 60% on Ike.

But Kirby is lower on the Nintendo totem pole than Mario, and Nintendo fans Fall. In. Line.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Red might go up, but it's certainly not because of the bracket vote. One Guru picked Alucard.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I'm not betting on Bowser here. I think Kirby is much better. But if we do get a surprising result, I'll be running straight to some 'rSFF'.

I believe in this by the way. Unless you think that Ness would Smash Ike or something.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

MasterMoltar posted...

guys

guys

...

rSFF

This but unironically
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Sup Alucard.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.