Lurker > Dan_Haren-

Dude knows fucking everything wtf

VeggetaX posted...

Found I house I really liked but neighbors were hardcore Trumpers so I noped out

Good idea.

I lived next to hard-core bible thumping Trumpers for 3 years. While they were always very nice, easy to talk to, we would hang out often, everything was great but we could absolutely never talk about politics. They had the wildest opinions that would low key bother me. There was always that divide that prevents you from being too close and makes you a bit uncomfortable.

And honestly the economic stance of Republicans does not bother me one bit. It's their social views that make me go wtf. They are as extreme as the media portrays.

Sqqq to 53, I bought 35 sold 45, rebought at 50, I'm gonna hodl for a while now

I dunno how to short so this is my poor man's short.

My post is based on personal experience. Up til 19 I always thought I was ugly, never really socialized with women. Felt like the only one who had never socialized with women in a romantic way. Because of this I was completely oblivious to any social clues. In college I sorta reflected on myself and decided I needed to change and put myself out there. Everyone else was doing it, so why couldn't I. I did that, started talking to a girl I was practically in love with. Everything was going well but I didn't know how to make a move. My friends all gave me terrible advice and it lead to the whole thing withering away. After this episode, I thought to myself, fuck it, I'm gonna put myself out there and make a move on a new girl, and fuck any advice my friends give, I'm not even gonna tel them about it. I kept reciting lines in my head and eventually found something that worked. I shot my shot and it was successful. It was literally as simple as, "I think you're pretty cute." She reciprocated and we started dating. Granted, we were already having casual conversations and stuff before that, so that wasn't an ice breaker. Eventually she gave me alot of insight into how girls think. That was eye opening. After this broke up, the rest was easy.

U gotta work on urself a bit. Dress with some style, groom appropriately, get in good shape. Thats the basics. Sometimes if you get out of your comfort zone in regards to style you may find that different styles fit your personality better than how u currently dress. So if u get in good shape, wear fitted clothes, nice shoes, nice grooming that will br a solid base.

Beyond that, you just have to put yourself out there. You have to step out of your comfort zone. There's no harm in rejection. You only know what's in your comfort zone if you never step out of it. Like I said, if you step out of your zone and do things that are not characteristic of you, you may like the new zone better. So approach a girl and shoot your shot. It takes practice you might get rejected 50 times in a row before you're successful and when you are what you're doing wrong will click and you'll be a pro soon enough.

But tsoi is very intriguing to me

I don't think today's press conference should have any relevance to the market.

Interest rates have been increasing...all we've seen thus far is the markets reaction to it and not the actual effect of the interest rate....that will take many months to years.

So they can increase by 0 or 100 either way it wouldn't mean that the Outlook is good or bad, there just hasn't been enough time.

No sympathy for anti vaxers

Watched it as a kid, my older sister fast forward the titty part. All the kids at school were talking about it and I got left out of that talk.

Didn't trump appoint that special master judge in the first place

Long term philosophy is just buy and don't look back until a couple decades from now. And in that philosophy you really can't look at the day to day stock market.

If ur a fundamentalist then that works. IMO there is a very obvious recession coming and I think it will span all if '23. So I rather hold cash until late '23 then buy a bunch if VOO. Although technically that's timing the market which you shouldn't do. But I'm gonna do it anyways because I'm a new investor. 5 years from now if the same thing happens I'm not even gonna bat an eye and just keep everything where it's at.

U know what fuck Sq, I'm looking into bonds now.

doomcrusader posted...

I did end up entering sqqq. I'm not up much today but at least I'm not losing money.

I posted about it when it was at 35 and since then it got to mid 40s and has been fluctuating between 45 and 48.

I sold at 48 and haven't bought back in yet. But I'm thinking I will today.

I've been telling you guys this for a while now. But nope, don't listen to good ole Dan haren

Are people praising the hacker? Because he's pretty clear cut in the wrong here. FBI is now investigating.

Im in the same boat, if I was to do any coffee at night, it would be probably a half cup of decaf coffee, poured into one of my smaller coffee mugs, so it looks like a 3/4 cup.

The only thing about decaf is that its somewhat unpredictable how much caffeine there is. Thats why they never list the actual amount. Can range between 2 and 15 mg of caffeine. The single digits really shouldn't affect you much, thats about the same as a square of dark chocolate. If its on the higher end you may slightly feel it.

Every girl that has ever gone to a bar or club has been groped at some point. 100%.

SrRd_RacinG posted...

Color?

Gray

Puma pride

5am wake up, gotta be done by 6 to be able to get ready for work.

Real estate absolutely needs to be regulated tighter. I really wish cali would do something about it.

Owning a home is the best way for families to build wealth and that ability to do that is shifting upwards on the socioeconomic class scale.

D4 is gonna be sick.

I've used airbnb alot almost every host is very easy to work with.

1 dude was a stickler but he chilled out. He was just mad cuz the last people that stayed were wreckless.

Absolutely no reason for him to be anything but hawkish, while trying his best to not incite panic, which will inevitably happen.

I'm okay with not segregating through middle school but clearly there is a physical difference in HS and beyond. Just basic physiology.

No but in most contracts there's something about if u were to leave the company and do things to damage the company in any way they can go after you.

The party found a formula that they think works which is that most republicans aren't deterred by extremism. And if they bombard these moderate or centrist republicans with literal fake news and spinning every piece of news out there, they can slowly over time inch these people more towards the right. It makes these people start to believe the left is as bad as the right. At the same time their extremism works to fire up the far right base and get them to the polls. People who otherwise wouldn't have a great turnout. The goal is these people make up for the loss of the centrists who see through their bullshit.

They might be able to return to normal if they get hammered in the election again and they bring out a moderate candidate who openly speaks against division, kinda like how Biden has been, then over time people stop paying attention and we go back to normal.

I really don't think Trump has as much power as people think. The problem is theres no other GOP candidate thats even half decent. The best might be Cheney but she's not mainstream enough. The republican feeling on Trump has gone from "GOAT president" to "at least he's better than Biden/kamala/AOC/Bernie".

I really think dems should push Pritzker. He's young, he's a moderate democrat, he's got money, he's GOOD. He'd be perfect.

The only people who don't believe it are rednecks.

Pretty much no question about it they are better. My family has probably owned about 7 or 8 different japanese cars over my lifetime, most used. None of them had any issues whatsoever. Our current cars are camry, tacoma, and sequoia all from the early 2000s all still driving strong.

Good.

Well in the last 10 years or so I've bought like 2 pairs of dress shoes, 1 ted bakers and 1 super cheap brand I don't even remember.

I've been meaning to get some loafers for work and business casual, maybe nice date or dinner out..i need black,light brown, and dark brown. I got some plain black penny loafers from Jack erwin...200 bucks or so.

Now I need light brown and dark brown. Which I'll wear alot. One of em I want tassel loafers, not sure which one would look better with tassels, light or dark brown.

https://www.allenedmonds.com/product/mens-grayson-dress-loafer-3022874/walnut-brown-ec4002019

https://www.carminashoemaker.com/penny-loafers-brown-demasquable-10082

I had this entire album memorized I listed to it so much in middle school.

So many sick songs...
Cleaning out my closet
My dad's gone crazy
Square dance
...it keeps going

Carminas
Allen Edmonds
Jack Erwins
Beckett simonon
Crockett and jones

Etc...

1337toothbrush posted...

X quarters of negative growth is not *the* indicator of a recession. Recessions are determined quite arbitrarily, actually.

Yup. Technical recession is different than what's commonly accepted to be a recession. No one gives a fuck about technical recession.

Prismsblade posted...

This is the goverments fault 110%.

It is, but there was alot of pressure for covid relief checks which certainly made things worse. But I think the bulk if the blame goes towards the dumbass Fed. I dunno if Trump pressured them or what but their monetary policy is why we're in this mess to begin with.

Atralis posted...

Looking at zillow my place is down from about 540 in May to about 510 today in the Denver metro area. My parents place (where I grew up also in the Denver metro) is down from about 890 to 810. The interest rates are hitting the Denver metro real estate market particularly hard because prices were so high. We saw insane rises in prices in the past few years and they seem to be diving as fast as they were going up.

Just plugging it into the google interest calculator I'm paying about $1,450 principle plus interest for a place I got in 2018 and then refinanced down to a low rate (2.9) and if I was to plug in the price right now even after its dropped I would be paying over $3,000 principle plus interest. This is for a 2 bedroom condo far outside of the city center.

Exactly why it makes no sense for anyone who has a mortgage to sell their house and that short supply will also create a floor for how low prices will go.

I'm not experienced enough in this to know all the tools of research available, like how to evaluate supply and demand of housing specifically. This is what I'm gonna try researching next.

Cleo_II posted...

Whats sad is a lot people are hoping this will happen just so they can buy a house for cheap. Its pretty sick.

I may be stoic but I don't think hoping for it or not makes a difference.

But in order to squash inflation for long term we may actually need that to happen. If people keep their jobs and wages go up..inflation will stay high. That eats into people's savings and retirements. It just delays the inevitable suffering. It may be better for the long term economy to crash hard and go through a tough period and then get back on its feet.

The fed literally told us there will be suffering....people are now believing them hence the market plummeting. But alot of people still think he fed will be soft. The fed lost credibility last year. So you can bet anything that they mean what they say now and fully intend to get their credibility back. And the last thing the fed told us is "there will be suffering"

Only way I see a crash crash is if alot of people lose their jobs from a really bad recession, and they lose their investments and retirement from a market crash, and they have no choice but to default.

The last thing I wanna say is that house selection right now will be poor. 1. Because it's end of summer, people are settled in for school to start. Selection usually goes down in the fall and winter, and picks up again spring and summer. 2. Everyone refinanced when rates were low so now no one wants to have to give up that low rate and buy a new house with double the mortgage rate.

So of there's a house on the market that's constantly cutting prices they might be desperate to sell. So low balling isn't a bad option. Some people are forced to move for job purposes, like military or whatever, so they don't really have a choice.

Breh, air fried hot dogs are bomb.

AlCalavicci posted...

You can always look up the history of list prices on these common real estate websites: redfin, realtor, zillow, etc. Personally zillow is my least favorite of the 3. You can also use this site https://trends.pillr.io/ to track changes in prices over the last month. I don't know where prices will bottom out. If you can predict that then you could make a ton of money. I saw the JP morgan memo that estimated 5 to 10% decreases. I mean its good estimate but everything big companies say needs to be taken with a grain of salt. If they came out and said 40% drop is incoming, there would be a ton of panic and that ultimately hurts the market and hurts them too. But theres also some degree of realism they have to maintain. Thats why fedex coming out today saying their expected profits are way down and they expect a global recession is so significant, because their business depends on other businesses. Fedex stock is today seeing the single largest drop in its history.

You also have to consider the market you're looking at, how its changed over time and what factors are influencing it. In that price range you're looking at there is a ton of pent up demand. 430k is the median house price in the US, so naturally the largest group of buyers will be looking at that price range. That is the one factor that will set a floor to how low prices will drop, combined with the fact that the labor market is still strong and wages are going up. Strong labor + increasing wages sets a floor for demand, and that will maintain some degree of inflation. The fed is on a mission to decrease inflation, regardless of collateral damage. So to a degree, the economy MUST suffer and as a result people MUST lose money/jobs, thats the only way to squash demand. If it gets to that point, then I think house prices will drop more than we think, because housing demand will be tempered. If the labor market is strong, demand will have a floor and prices won't drop as much as we'd like. Inflation happens because demand is high, supply is low, combine that with 30% increase in money supply during the pandemic and that leads to the bad inflation we have now.

If inflation drops dramatically the fed may start decreasing rates but I don't expect that for the next year at least. Maybe in 1-2 year time frame from now they may start pivoting. Inflation numbers are higher than expected this month, so now everyone knows fed rate hikes are incoming more so than we previously thought.

So IMO, you can afford to wait another 8-12 months, prices will continue to go down, interest rates will continue to go up. But the strategy I posted for buying when rates are high is not doable for everyone. You have to be able to comfortably make that high monthly payment for at least a few years until rates come down and you can refinance. The majority of buyers will wait until rates are more reasonable because being able to afford the monthly payment now is a much bigger concern than having equity in the house or long-term spending.

What you can always do is just keep giving low-ball offers. If they take it then great, if not, so be it.

I would calculate out the difference between your payments now (based on down payment, total loan amount, mortgage rate, factoring in property tax, home insurance) versus if you were to buy a year from now with a higher rate, perhaps 0.75-1% higher and house prices 10% lower, but possibly an increased down payment, and see how things change. You can google any mortgage calculator and figure that out. Then use that same calculator and use a interest rate of maybe 3.5-4% which is what your payment would be if you were to refinance in 3-5 years time span when hopefully rates are down.

The reason I talk bout inflation so much is because inflation high => fed funds rate hike ===> increased treasury note yields ===> increased mortage rates => decrease home prices (similar to house the video described). Inflation lower => reverse of the above process....but not immediately, takes time.

Diablo 1

bigblu89 posted...

I bought just as Bush Jr started tanking the economy back in 2005, and was able to refi a year later at 2.6%, but kept paying my original mortgage amount and paying down the principal.

I'm on pace to knock 4 years off my mortgage, having it end in March of 2030 instead of Feb 2034.

If you had paid the smaller payment and put the rest into index funds you'd be better off right now.

It's almost always better to pay the same later than pay now.

The smart strategy would be to buy when interest rates are peaked. That's when house prices will be lowest. You would have to overpay for a few years until interest rates go back down and then refinance. That's how you get the best long term deal.

With as much research I've done I think the amount of drop depends on the market. I think you may see 20% drop in some markets. In others it may be closer to 10%.

AlCalavicci posted...

Is this video a reliable source ?

I've been doing my own hardcore research into the housing market as well as tracking house prices on a micro level...aka i check realtor.com almost daily and monitor prices, inventory, etc in a specific city i want to move to, and pretty much everything he said is accurate.

House prices lag behind interest rates by a few months. Prices we see now are reflecting interest rates from a few months ago.

Housing is a large component of the inflation calculation. For inflation to come down, house prices must come down. If they don't then interest rates keep going up.

There's some other factors like the fact that everyone refinanced when rates were super low a year ago, so supply will be down. No one is gonna sell a house that they're paying 3% on and move to a new house where they'll have to pay 6%.

Social security is undergoing a cost of living update aka adjusting for inflation. That means higher social security tax.

I dunno if it already took place, I think it was just approved yday or the day before.