Current Events > The housing bubble is about to burst, interest rates up over 6%

(+) Yeah! (+)

Can we ever admit we are in a recession?

SauI_Goodman posted...

We need another housing crisis ala 2008. About time for me to buy.

if that actually happened good luck lol, you think youll outbid real estate mongrels and companies who will be buying up everything they can?

lol

House prices will go down but it will only matter to people who absolutely have to sell. The rest of us will just ride the wave on our low rates. Who knows if the rates will ever get back to what they were before.

Monolith1676 posted...

Can we ever admit we are in a recession?

The only people denying it are the ones in the white house. Any sane person with their eyes open should have acknowledged by now the fact that we're in a recession.

Zeeak4444 posted...

65% up from what I bought in 2020.

thats pretty nuts.

Three times what I paid for it in 2013.

Worst housing crash in *40* years? That's quite the claim. 2008 was specifically a housing crisis, this economic downturn is more spread out.

hyperpowder posted...

Crazy how stupid people thought I was for buying a house during Covid. I look at my house now and Im on a 15 year 2.5% interest and it increase like 20k from what I paid.

What's "smart" or "stupid" can change as circumstances change. You could look back on this and see it as smart or you could see the price of your house drop to 25% of its currently price and feel stupid, since even a much greater interest rate results in a smaller payment at that price and you can refinance down (extreme example, but just for illustrative purposes). Ultimately it's too difficult to tell the future, so do your best, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

Dan_Haren- posted...

The smart strategy would be to buy when interest rates are peaked. That's when house prices will be lowest. You would have to overpay for a few years until interest rates go back down and then refinance. That's how you get the best long term deal.

With as much research I've done I think the amount of drop depends on the market. I think you may see 20% drop in some markets. In others it may be closer to 10%.

Depends on how long high rates last. Low rates are a recent phenomenon, it's not necessarily a guarantee. The key is to make sure your situation is sustainable. Certainly not worth it to gamble on a high rate if you can barely sustain it.

SauI_Goodman posted...

We need another housing crisis ala 2008. About time for me to buy.

It will depend on your timing, but these crises are mainly just for the rich to scoop up assets on the cheap. You may get a couple droplets, but the vast majority will be screwed as usual.

Only way I see a crash crash is if alot of people lose their jobs from a really bad recession, and they lose their investments and retirement from a market crash, and they have no choice but to default.

Dan_Haren- posted...

Only way I see a crash crash is if alot of people lose their jobs from a really bad recession, and they lose their investments and retirement from a market crash, and they have no choice but to default.

If this happens then idk what to say.

Dan_Haren- posted...

Only way I see a crash crash is if alot of people lose their jobs from a really bad recession, and they lose their investments and retirement from a market crash, and they have no choice but to default.

Whats sad is a lot people are hoping this will happen just so they can buy a house for cheap. Its pretty sick.

Cleo_II posted...

Whats sad is a lot people are hoping this will happen just so they can buy a house for cheap. Its pretty sick.

It's the nature of the system. Artificial scarcity.

Cleo_II posted...

Whats sad is a lot people are hoping this will happen just so they can buy a house for cheap. Its pretty sick.

I may be stoic but I don't think hoping for it or not makes a difference.

But in order to squash inflation for long term we may actually need that to happen. If people keep their jobs and wages go up..inflation will stay high. That eats into people's savings and retirements. It just delays the inevitable suffering. It may be better for the long term economy to crash hard and go through a tough period and then get back on its feet.

The fed literally told us there will be suffering....people are now believing them hence the market plummeting. But alot of people still think he fed will be soft. The fed lost credibility last year. So you can bet anything that they mean what they say now and fully intend to get their credibility back. And the last thing the fed told us is "there will be suffering"

Looking at zillow my place is down from about 540 in May to about 510 today in the Denver metro area. My parents place (where I grew up also in the Denver metro) is down from about 890 to 810.

The interest rates are hitting the Denver metro real estate market particularly hard because prices were so high. We saw insane rises in prices in the past few years and they seem to be diving as fast as they were going up.

Cleo_II posted...

Whats sad is a lot people are hoping this will happen just so they can buy a house for cheap. Its pretty sick.

As if current home owners keeping the ladders raised from the rest of us so property prices can rise to the moon is any better.

And all the hedge funds will swoop in and buy low and squat on the properties till the housing market rebounds

Atralis posted...

Looking at zillow my place is down from about 540 in May to about 510 today in the Denver metro area. My parents place (where I grew up also in the Denver metro) is down from about 890 to 810. The interest rates are hitting the Denver metro real estate market particularly hard because prices were so high. We saw insane rises in prices in the past few years and they seem to be diving as fast as they were going up.

Just plugging it into the google interest calculator I'm paying about $1,450 principle plus interest for a place I got in 2018 and then refinanced down to a low rate (2.9) and if I was to plug in the price right now even after its dropped I would be paying over $3,000 principle plus interest. This is for a 2 bedroom condo far outside of the city center.

Exactly why it makes no sense for anyone who has a mortgage to sell their house and that short supply will also create a floor for how low prices will go.

I'm not experienced enough in this to know all the tools of research available, like how to evaluate supply and demand of housing specifically. This is what I'm gonna try researching next.

Know what would be useful? If this had happened multiple times in the past and we were able to learn from them

Smackems posted...

Know what would be useful? If this had happened multiple times in the past and we were able to learn from them

If only

fuckit lets revolt

I got a 30y at 2.99% and aint ever letting this crib go.

Prismsblade posted...

As if current home owners keeping the ladders raised from the rest of us so property prices can rise to the moon is any better.

Or maybe things should just return to how they were precovid before all the craziness. I think prices should come down and they will over time with these rates. But wishing for a crash like 2008 where so many people lost everything is fucking twisted.

And the problem isnt current homeowners. Its corporations that took advantage of low rates to buy up all the property and raise prices. Anyone with sense would recognize that.

Cleo_II posted...

Or maybe things should just return to how they were precovid before all the craziness. I think prices should come down and they will over time with these rates. But wishing for a crash like 2008 where so many people lost everything is fucking twisted.

And the problem isnt current homeowners. Its corporations that took advantage of low rates to buy up all the property and raise prices. Anyone with sense would recognize that.

Those corporations were able to swoop in because so many ma&pa landlords left the market due to the moratorium or just the fear of another. Which lowed supply vs demand. On top of interest rates being lowed to rock bottom which prompted them and countless others to buy up even more.

This is the goverments fault 110%.

But personally I don't really care anymore. If the opportunity presents itself I'm taking it.

Cleo_II posted...

Or maybe things should just return to how they were precovid before all the craziness. I think prices should come down and they will over time with these rates. But wishing for a crash like 2008 where so many people lost everything is fucking twisted.

And the problem isnt current homeowners. Its corporations that took advantage of low rates to buy up all the property and raise prices. Anyone with sense would recognize that.

Things were crazy *before* covid economy-wise. Interest rates were held near-zero for far too long. It's just that this covid economi is so much more crazy that the prior state seems normal by comparison.

Prismsblade posted...

This is the goverments fault 110%.

It is, but there was alot of pressure for covid relief checks which certainly made things worse. But I think the bulk if the blame goes towards the dumbass Fed. I dunno if Trump pressured them or what but their monetary policy is why we're in this mess to begin with.

Glad I own land and lease the pasture for property tax. I was done with a rent house of 8yrs.

Dan_Haren- posted...

It is, but there was alot of pressure for covid relief checks which certainly made things worse. But I think the bulk if the blame goes towards the dumbass Fed. I dunno if Trump pressured them or what but their monetary policy is why we're in this mess to begin with.

I don't think they had much choice because of the lock downs, and to avoid a depression. A depression we.....likely would have recovered from by now as we always do.

But all that damn money we printed, I shudder to think of the amount of housing we could have built on a small fraction of that.

TaylorHeinicke posted...

The only people denying it are the ones in the white house. Any sane person with their eyes open should have acknowledged by now the fact that we're in a recession.

Pretty soon we will have three consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Monolith1676 posted...

Pretty soon we will have three consecutive quarters of negative growth.

X quarters of negative growth is not *the* indicator of a recession. Recessions are determined quite arbitrarily, actually.

Prismsblade posted...

I don't think they had much choice because of the lock downs, and to avoid a depression. A depression we.....likely would have recovered from by now as we always do.

But all that damn money we printed, I shudder to think of the amount of housing we could have built on a small fraction of that.

what a world you live in. Like most conservatives youre hoping for something thats gonna hurt you more lmao.

1337toothbrush posted...

X quarters of negative growth is not *the* indicator of a recession. Recessions are determined quite arbitrarily, actually.

Yup. Technical recession is different than what's commonly accepted to be a recession. No one gives a fuck about technical recession.

bigblu89 posted...

Ha.

They'll all just sell to Chinese and Indian land developers. They ain't losing anything.

We should ban selling residential property to non permanent resident foreigners entirely in the vast majority of cases and also forcibly divest most them as well from resendential properties and land in residential areas.

We cant even make a humane housing market with our own rich fucks in play let alone the rich fucks from China and other places further fucking things up.

pikachupwnage posted...

We should ban selling residential property to non permanent resident foreigners entirely in the vast majority of cases and also forcibly divest most them as well from resendential properties and land in residential areas.

We cant even make a humane housing market with our own rich fucks in play let alone the rich fucks from China and other places further fucking things up.

Unfortunately, that would lead to less money for the government and the rich, so it'll never happen.

Real estate absolutely needs to be regulated tighter. I really wish cali would do something about it.

Owning a home is the best way for families to build wealth and that ability to do that is shifting upwards on the socioeconomic class scale.

I live in Florida so my home stays at a steady price. It's almost doubled since I purchased it in 2017, which is insane.