Lurker > TsunamiXXVIII

iiicon posted...

thundersheep posted...

Also lol at all these predix placing Giants 3rd in the NL West.

it's not unreasonable to think the Rockies will finish above the Giants, though that being the consensus is strange

...Wait, what? *goes back and checks* Seriously? The Rockies? I just assumed when I saw the former post that some people had irrationally high confidence in the Diamondbacks.

Well, whatever. Baseball is back. I can walk into my house and immediately start bitching about Craig Kimbrel, and it makes perfect sense. Seriously, I might stay going gray in my thirties if the Sox keep him as their closer for more than another year or two. It doesn't matter how much of a cushion we hand him, the tying runs will be on base by the time he finally nails down the save--assuming that it was even a save situation to begin with, because I'm almost certain that on at least one occasion and most likely more, he came into a non-save situation last year because he needed the work and another reliever ended up getting a save.

(It was a save today, though. Sounded like his fastball was really sizzling today, which makes that 1-2 curveball that he hit a batter with all the more inexcusable.)
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Johnbobb posted...

VeryInsane posted...

https://vetstreet.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/3acf9d1/2147483647/thumbnail/645x380/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fvetstreet-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe7%2F72%2F0e9bf32843e4a3fef50b9339cea5%2FAmerican-Shorthair-AP-1RPWID-645sm3614.jpg

You are an American Shorthair Cat!

that is fucking adorable

Indeed.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Zero Stage 2
Soar
Theme of D4
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

KCF0107 posted...

I totally forgot to vote, but I swear that Blue Desert Hotel is my first nom that everyone had nice things to say about.

No, it isn't. It really, really isn't.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Swordfish
Yomitsu Hirasaka Corruption
Tuxedo Knight
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Neo Bamboo Forest in Flames
Id ~ Purpose
Theme of Simon
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

So with U.N. Owen Was Her in action today in the side bracket, I started thinking about Touhou in general, and dam, Imperishable Night has wiped the floor with the other games. Not only does it have the franchise's only retired song, but it boasts three of the top four unretired soma in the franchise--and yes, RFTM's score is largely fueled by longevity, but its 2.30 average is still 8th-best among Touhou songs, and that includes the retired one.

Perfect Cherry Blossom, on the other hand, has been an extreme disappointment, with an average round of 1.36. (IMO, part of the problem is that the wrong songs have been nominated--no Phantom Ensemble, really? No Ultimate Truth or Crystallized Silver either, though those both tend to get overlooked because of how short they are. Of course, 2 of the game's 4 wins belong to Border of Life which I find to be the weakest of all the PCB songs nominated so what do I know?) But that's actually not the worst average among games that were on that list of frequent entrants without a retiree.

1.07. Or more accurately, 1.0(6 repeating). That's the average round for Secret of Mana. Fear of the Heavens/Angel's Fear has a 1.20 average over 5 appearances, which is to say that it only even made Round 2 once and went no further, and every other song (Meridian Dance over 3 appearances and 7 others once each) has a 1.00 average. That is amazingly pathetic, and probably a sign that Secret of Mana shouldn't be in these contests.

...Except when looking for what the most appearances to produce a 1.00 average is, I found that Secret of Mana's 1.07 isn't the lowest on the list, either. Sonic Adventure 2 has a 1.00 average over 12 appearances. (Again, I feel that which songs have appeared is part of the problem: 11 of the 12 appearances belong to vocal tracks--4 each for Live and Learn and Escape from the City, 2 for E.G.G.M.A.N. and 1 for A Ghost Pumpkin's Soup. I feel like some of the more subdued songs like Trespasser or Supporting Me--and yes, I know that the latter has vocals too but Shadow's vocals are so mumbly that they might as well not even be there.)
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

+8 WiggumFan267
+7 KamikazePotato
+6 KokoroAkechi
+5 Articuno2001 (Arti)
+4 Solioxrz362
+3 RayDyn (Sgt Sphynx)
+2 KingBartz
+1 My Immortal
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Dungeon of Dreams
Scene Shifts There
U.N. Owen was Her?
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Other oddities:

If Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Sonic & Knuckles were counted as two separate games, Sonic 3 would still qualify for the list, and S&K would be just one away. Ironically, S3&K is the original source game for the only rewired track from Sonic Generations; however, the S3&K original of that song has never made a contest.

No contest has ended with this list being empty, though had the criteria been determined by the actual count of the game that spurred this inquiry (azuarc commented on the two RH songs that had a combined 8 appearances without ever losing in R1 or R2, but the game actually had 10 appearances, with two other songs appearing once each and combining for just one win between them), it would've still been empty at the conclusion of VGMC1. Both Final Fantasy IX and Chrono Trigger had eight songs in the VGMC1 bracket and neither retired a song until VGMC3, and FFVII had already reached 8 by the end of VGMC2 (and actually had eight different songs with at least one appearance by the end of VGMC3--the count at the end of VGMC2 was three songs in both and 4 others in one, for a total of 10.)

I stand corrected on FFIX being alone with the most unretired songs, actually. Super Smash Bros. Brawl also has 12 unretired songs--and has had this count at the end of every contest except VGMC1, which preceded Brawl's release, and VGMC6, when Bramble Blast retired to bring the unretired count down to 11. Interestingly, the number of appearances by unretired songs has always matched the number of unretired songs--after going 1 for 13 in VGMC2, Brawl has only made 4 other appearances--two by songs that weren't among the 13 that appeared in VGMC2 and the other two resulting in successful retirements (Shin Onigashima in VGMC3 and Bramble Blast in VGMC6). Interestingly enough, VGMC6 was in fact the last time a FFIX song made its debut (2 of them, actually), which means it reached its current count of 12 at the same time that Brawl dropped down to 11.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

Funny thing is, I feel like that list is actually short. I expected to see, for example, Fittest, which had 3 songs that were popular for a couple years.

Well, it may or may not be a few hours from getting longer. I did include games that only had 7 appearances prior to this year but have already had a song lose this contest, and while I haven't counted votes--for all I know, it could be getting crushed, or it could be crushing its opponent--but if Lava Dome loses, that's #8 for Final Fantasy Mystic Quest.

But the biggest disqualifier was having a song that actually did retire. I was scrolling down the list when creating this, and FFIX had song after song after song, but then, whoops! The very last song on the list in alphabetical order, You're Not Alone, was retired. I'm not looking at the spreadsheet right now but I think FFIX had the most unretired songs of any game, but it also has one that's retired so it doesn't make the list.

Edit: Okay, pulled up the list. The example you mentioned, Fittest, had only five appearances: three by one song and one each by two others. As for my assertion about FFIX, 13 songs have made the field at least once and only one has retired. Since Birth of a Good is making its debut this year, FFVII will tie it if none of its songs retire this year (0 out of 12 compared to 1 out of 13). But, yeah. If the list was simply based on the unretired songs instead of on the complete absence of retired songs, it'd be a lot longer.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Is there a year in the 16 bit era that stands out, or is everything a little too spread out to compete with the likes of 1998?

It's pretty well spread-out. 1994 is probably the best: FFVI, S3&K, DKC1. 1995 has CT and DKC2; 1991 has SMW, StH1, FFIV, and Street Fighter II...and, uh, you kind of have to count 1996. SMRPG and Kirby Super Star both came out that year (as did DKC3, but that holds probably the least weight of the DKC trilogy), and it also gets help from SM64 and a more established Playstation.

Huh. Yeah, 1996 could be really strong. Not 1998 strong, but it could probably give 1999 a good fight, maybe even 1997 (though it probably won't beat 1997). Actually...

My guesses, assuming bracket cooperates:

Winner: 1998
Runner-up: 1997
Semifinalists: 1996, 2001
Quarterfinalists: 1999, 1994, 1991, 2000
Sweet Sixteen: 1995, 1992, 2002, 2004, 1990, 1986, 2005, 1993

I think. I'm a little fuzzy on filling out the post-2004 years, so I might have missed a strong year that's more recent.

On to the big surprises: 1999 short of the semis? 1995 missing the Elite Eight? Well, yeah, sure. 1999 has some decent stuff, it's true, but what are its big releases? FFVIII, SA1, DK64...There's not much there that really inspires me. 2001 has Melee, Paper Mario 64, MGS2, SA2, Halo...hell, it could even get Zelda in there thanks to the Oracle games. 2001 is stacked. And like I said, 1996 is strong on multiple fronts. The Playstation actually came out in 1995, but its launch lineup was weak, so the first wave of great games was 1996, plus you've got the N64's launch (and SM64 is a hugely popular retro game) and a surprisingly strong batch of games for the waning SNES (Did you know that despite the system not coming out until November, there were twice as many GameCube games released in the U.S. in 2001 as there were N64 games? The N64 did get a couple of gems--Conker's Bad Fur Day and the aforementioned PM64--but the quantity was low.)

And 1995, Chrono Trigger is great, and DKC2 is probably the strongest of the DKC games, and I forgot about Yoshi's Island in my initial analysis, but it's not all that deep and it lacks any kill pressure. Yoshi's Island, more of a spinoff than a true Mario game, was the only entrant from any of the major franchises, except probably a Mega Man game because those came out pretty much annually. If you're counting on the two weakest Noble Niners (or maybe two of the three weakest; Sonic might still be weaker than Mega Man) to carry you, you might be in for a disappointment. 1994 has the #2 Final Fantasy game, the #1 Sonic game, the #1 Metroid game. ..need I go on? And 1991, again, the major franchises are all firing. (Though it, too, lacks a Zelda game; ALttP was 1992). SMW is iconic, and so is Street Fighter II. And there's a Final Fantasy game. 2000, well... "major franchises" doesn't begin to cover it. FFIX might not have the clout that VII or VI or IX or even VIII have, but it doesn't have to carry the year by itself: Majora's Mask and Pokémon Gold/Silver can handle the load.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Spoilers: 1998 wins. If the bracket allows it, it defeats 1997 in the finals.

HaRRicH posted...

MartinFF7 posted...

I'd like to believe that, once again it'll come down to FF7 (1997) vs. OoT (1998).

But 98 is so strong. Xenogears immediately comes to mind for me for that year... and FFT, MGS, Starcraft, Half-Life... struggling to think of 1997 besides FF7 and maybe Goldeneye? Damn.

1997's ace in its sleeve against 1998:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6134-best-game-ever-day-21-round-2-banjo-kazooie-vs-castlevania

I'm not much of a Sony fanny, but just from Ninty, 1997 had Star Fox 64 and I think Mario Kart 64 (that might've been late 1996, but I think it was January 1997.

Not that it matters, because your list of 1998's Murderer's Row left out the second-strongest game from that year: Pokémon Red/Blue.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

UltimaterializerX posted...

Do not let this distract you from the fact that the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals.

Yeah, but then the city of Cleveland gave it right back by letting the Cubs rally from a 3-1 deficit to win their first World Series in 108 years.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Monolith
Lava Dome
Dreams of Cobalt
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

That's...certainly an impressive list from a gaming standpoint.

1) Final Fantasy VII
16) Guilty Gear X (or would it be Guilty Gear XX?)

8) Sonic 3 & Knuckles
9) Secret of Mana

5) Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
12) Tales of Vesperia

4) Metal Gear Solid
13) Super Paper Mario

3) Final Fantasy VI
14) Radiant Historia

6) Earthbound
11) Sonic Adventure 2

7) Mega Man X
10) Final Fantasy XIII

2) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
15) Shadow Hearts: Covenant

...Yeah, that is definitely a region of a games contest. I'm guessing a little bit; I kind of hope that I made a bad call on which was stronger of MMX and S3&K but I know how disappointing Sonic can be. But, uh...damn. A region in which FFVI is only a 3-seed is pretty stacked.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Mac Arrowny posted...

What other games have 8+ appearances with no retirees?

Well, let's start with MGS1, since The Best Is Yet to Come alone has more than 8 appearances. Actually, ditto that for FFVI and Terra. (The other two songs that singlehandedly have 8+ appearances and haven't retired both come from games with at least one retiree)

Running down the list, looks like we have...Earthbound (Smiles and Tears 5, Pokey Means Business 4, two others 1 each); FFVI even without Terra (7 other songs with a combined 13 appearances); FFVII (11 songs and 25 appearances entering this contest); FFXIII (Saber's Edge twice and 7 other songs once each); Guilty Gear X (Awe of She 4, Still in the Dark 2, three others 1 each); Guilty Gear XX (Vortex Infinitum 3, Still in the Dark 2, three others 1 each); Katamari Damacy (Lonely Rolling Star 5 and Katamari on the Rocks 3); LoZ:ALttP (Credits 2, Dark World 2, Ending Theme 2, Overworld 1, Dark Mountain 1); Mega Man X (Spark Mandrill 4, Armored Armadillo and Boomer Kuwanger 3 each, Sigma Stage 1 and Storm Eagle 2 each, Ending and Sigma Stage 2 one each); Persona 4 (Heaven, I'll Face Myself, and Reach Out to the Truth 3 each (including IFM's 1st-round exit this year); Long Way 2, six others 1 each); the aforementioned Radiant Historia (which also has two other songs that made it once each); Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (Another Winter 6 including this year's first-round exit plus Rock Club and Technoman once each); Secret of Mana (Fear of the Heavens/Angel's Fear 5, Meridian Dance 3, seven others 1 each); Shadow Hearts: Covenant (Astaroth 6, The Fate 3, ICARO (Piano) 2, five others 1 each); Sonic 3 & Knuckles (Ice Cap Zone Act 1 four times, Flying Battery Zone Act 1 three times, Flying Battery Zone Act 2 and Hydrocity Zone Act 2 twice each, and Chrome Gadget Zone, Launch Base Zone Act 1, Lava Reef Zone Act 1, and The Doomsday Zone once each); Sonic Adventure 2 (Escape from the City and Live and Learn 4 each, E.G.G.M.A.N. 2, A Ghost Pumpkin's Soup and Keys the Ruin 1 each); Super Paper Mario (The Ultimate Show 4, Castle Bleck and Champion of Destruction 2 each); Tales of Vesperia (Fury Sparks 5, Resolution of the People 2, A Vow of Unity and The Thousand Year Slumber of the Blastia 1 each); Touhou 6 (Septette for the Dead Princess 4 including this year's first-round exit, U.N. Owen Was Her? 2, Beloved Tomboyish Girl and Lunar Clock ~ Luna Dial 1 each); Touhou 7 (Border of Life and Necrofantasia 3 each, Capital City of Flowers in the Sky 2, Doll Judgement, Dollmaker of Bucuresti, and Mystic Oriental Dream ~ Ancient Temple 1 each); and Touhou 11 (Nuclear Fusion 3, Lullaby of Deserted Hell and Green-Eyed Jealousy 2 each, four others 1 each)

Also, special mention to Kingdom Hearts 2, which doesn't quite make the list because the series' incessant remakes are counted separately, but the original has 7, Final Mix 2, and Final Mix+ 1, and none of them are retired.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Brickworks
Reach for the Moon, Immortal Smoke
Mount Vesuvius
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Septette for the Dead Princess
Red Locus
Overworld Adventure

Three even matches here, and the R2 match between the winners of the two main bracket matches won't be easy either. Six Feet Thunder might actually be more Touhou than the Touhou song. I like all four main bracket songs more than the two in the side bracket.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Birth of a God
I'll Face Myself
Right Hand from Behind
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

So in the case of RftMIS and TBIYTC, it would take 3 straight 1-and-done appearances just to drop them from 52.9 to 52.0, and after that, their score will start rising again even if they keep going one-and-done. BwM would also need three 1-and-dones to level off at 48.0 (currently 49.0), and will never be able to drop below that.

Basically, your score can never drop below 4*your win total, no matter how many 0-1 contests you have; our big three are 13-10, 13-10, and 12-9.

Under the new formula, however, the "line" where a 1-and-done raises your score becomes considerably higher. If, for example, Awakening were to make a 7th appearance and go 1-and-done, its new score by the new method would be 31.3027, compared to...31.1769 right now, as you can plainly see because it has the same number of appearances and average as Face of Fact. Which is actually pretty mild; making that same comparison with one whose average is 3.00 after just one appearance, the jump is from 5.1962 to 5.6569. (...okay, actually, that's a poor example, because under the current formula, your score is 9 after a 3rd-round debut, and can only drop as far as 8 after a single 1st-round exit before starting to rebound again even with further first-round exits. But that's because your average drops to 2.00 on the first one.)

But what about starting with a 4.00?

4: 8
4, 1: 7.9057

4, 4: 16
4, 4, 1: 15.5885

4, 4, 4: 24
4, 4, 4, 1: 23.4361

Well, it is getting further away...

4, 4, 4, 3: 29.0474
4, 4, 4, 3, 1: 28.6217

4, 4, 4, 3, 3: 34.1526
4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 1: 33.8107

4, 3: 13.0958
4, 3, 1: 13.0639

...Yeah, seems like we're getting pretty close. When using the 3.5 average over 6 appearances instead of 2, the 1-and-done dropped the score from 39.2874 to 39.0018. So...I'm thinking that the "turnpoint", where even a 1-and-done will increase your score, is just a tad below 3.5. Given that this formula was made to gauge the strength of unretired songs and any unretired song has by definition an average no better than 4.00, this means that songs will almost inherently "grow stronger" the longer they fail to retire. Which, okay, already happens to some degree, since those with poor overall averages will grow with every appearance anyway, but right now, even though the top of the list is filled with entries that keep showing up, there are also some that just have really high averages over a few appearances. Id ~ Purpose is #8 on the unretired list after just three appearances; under the new method, its score of 24 would be beaten out by...okay, bad example; for four appearances, it would still take a 3.50 average; for five, it'd take 3.00; and as it stands right now, the spot directly behind Id ~ Purpose belongs to a 5/3.00.

Also, I think I just thought of a way to reward recency. Each time that an unretired song that has made a contest fails to make the field, put a 0 in its row (every other time starting with VGMC10, since the halved field size makes it harder to make the field). In doing this, a song that made Round 4 in VGMC1 but has yet to return would have had its average dwindle to...0.40? ...Okay, it needs some tweaking. Maybe every other miss, every fourth miss starting with VGMC10 (if a song had an odd number of misses through VGMC9, start with the second miss since then). So, yes, a single 4th-round appearance in VGMC1 would be worth less than a 1-and-done last year. ...perhaps we should also erase one previous 0 with each appearance, so that something that debuted early but came back after a hiatus isn't punished as badly as one that never returned.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

And, yes, if I were to give out scores to all of the retirees as well, Zero-Two would have the highest, at approximately 96.57.

Higher than STDWE? *fiddles with spreadsheet* Huh, yup, way higher. I had a different formula in place previously, and the values were really high for the retired tracks.

Anyway, I'll read the rest of your post later. I gotta run out and just cherrypicked that one sentence.

That's not surprising at all. STDWE only had one contest more than 02, and it only just managed to retire when it finally got there whereas 02 was a contest runner-up...wait, you're actually inputting the retired tracks for comparison? Albeit with a drastically nerfed formula, one that puts greater emphasis on appearances than averages, bumping STDWE up to 2nd among retired songs...

That's so disorienting, because I know full well that the retired songs should almost unilaterally have huge values. Even songs that went 1 and done on their first appearance, then lost just after retirement in their second have scores of 18.00 (this is the lowest on record, though far from the lowest possible as the numbers will continue to drop the more first-round defeats you add in. Seymour Battle, however, with a progression of 1, 2, 1, 5, has a better score.)

A full list of songs in this contest that can beat STDWE's score by the old method (66.125) and the round they'd have to reach to do it:

RftMIS 4
TBIYtC 4
Blue Radiance 4
Battle with Magus 5
Id ~ Purpose 5
Nefertiti 5
Eleganza 6
Another Winter 6
In the Final 7
MARIA 7
Emil/Karma 7
Red Locus 7
goldenslaughterer 7
Shrine of Solomon 7
FCDH 7
J-E-N-O-V-A 8
Temptation of the Butterfly 8
YOaTI 8
Halo 8
Big Blue 8
Dr. Fetus' Castle 8

I'm not really sure what I think about changing the formula; this new one only increases the reward for quantity over quality, and I know a lot of people are getting tired of the same songs being in it over and over again. (For example, under the new formula, Zero-Two is still #1 because it took 7 tries to retire but averaged a 3.00 over the six failures; STDWE is #2 because it took 8 tries and averaged 2.57 over the seven failures; Zero and SPHILIA are tied for third, with their 3.5 average over two failures followed by winning it all back when that meant 8 matches rather than 7...and RftMIS and TBIYtC are tied for fifth, at 34.88, for making it in 10 times and averaging a 2.3. The averages you'd need just to break 30, by appearances.

1: Not happening unless the contest expands to 9 rounds and a first-timer wins it all.
2: 6.50, which Hope has, but no others can get unless the contest expands back to 8 rounds and someone wins it all on their second try after just missing out on retirement in their debut
3: 4.67, which is...doable, but still requires a retirement on the third try with a very good average on the two failures.
4: 4.00
5: 3.40
6: 3.00
7: 2.71
8: 2.50
9: 2.33
10: 2.10
11: 2.00
12: 1.92
13: 1.77
14: 1.71

...the decay rate there is awfully quick. Keep in mind, that's just the arbitrary score of 30. I wanted to calculate how many consecutive first-round exits it'd take one of our regulars to actually get below 30, but it might not ever happen--the numerators on those last six are 21, 21, 22, 23, 23, 24. Going further back, it's 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 21, 22, 23, 23, 24--and that's all the way back to 4 appearances.

...Yeah, confirmed. Our three mainstays would all have their scores rise even with a one-and-done. Granted, even under the current formula, they won't fall much by going 1-and-done--as I stated before, if your average is 2.00, any appearance will raise your score.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

.and while we're at it, there are still two more songs with 0-2 records thus far that are making their third appearance this contest.

One of which is GBL Goddess Temple. I knew that without checking. But I can't find the other. Sigma Stage 1 and Hitomi no LAZhWARD already had their appearances. What's the other? The closest I see is Quell Excez Kranz, which has gone 2-1-1 and Septette for a Dead Princess at 1-2-1.

One thing I was surprised by with this field is that we have 33 entrants hae have reached R3 before. Considering only 60 songs are returning, that's a remarkably high proportion. Obviously that meant that during bracket placement, there were a number of songs that had at least one strong showing that didn't get an especially high seeding to reflect that. (Notably, Soar and Location of Power. Though I would argue both have winnable matches, even if I didn't favor them.)

Daddy Mulk. Listed as being 1-and-done in both VGMC5 and VGMC7, though I can find no record of it even being in the latter.

Update: I have officially found that Daddy Mulk was in fact in VGMC5 and VGMC9, and it was indeed 1-and-done both times. So it's almost certainly 0-2, unless it's actually 0-3; I missed VGMC8 completely so I can't use "my brackets" to shortcut back there.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Which, uh...kind of brings up the need for a recency factor in the formula. Even with it being Appearances times Average Squared, a single appearance reaching round 3 rates higher than one that's reached Round 3 and returned. It's...kind of strange, actually. If your average is above 2.00, you get punished for more total appearances, but if your average is at or below 2.00, the extra appearances are a reward.

1-4 has a higher score than 1-3, which is higher than 1-2, which is higher than 1-1. (If we ever see 1-6, that will actually be able to outscore 2-2, but 5 appearances is the most we've seen from anyone with only one win.)

Actually, it's more like...being above .500 is better than being below .500, but being far away from .500 is better than being close to it for a given number of wins. Here's the list of records for the "top unretired", going down the list.

12-6
13-10
11-5
12-9 = 10-4
9-3
10-5
9-4
8-3
9-5
9-8
8-4
8-5
7-3
6-2
7-4
7-5
6-3
6-4
5-2
6-5
5-3
5-4
5-6
5-5
4-2
4-6
4-3
4-4=3-1
3-6
3-5
3-2
3-4
3-3
2-1=2-4
2-3
2-2
1-5
1-4
1-3
1-2
1-1=0-4
0-3
0-2
0-1

Actually, it was right as I got to the bolded point that I realized it's not strange at all--the "average" is essentially "(wins plus losses)/losses", while the "appearances" is essentially equal to losses. So the formula becomes (wins+losses) squared divided by losses--in algebraic terms, y=(x+c)^2/x. No matter what the value of c is, the function will have its lowest value at x=c, and thus, for any given number of wins (c), your total score will be lowest if your average is exactly 2.00.

It's not a simple parabola, though, which is why 3-6 is still below 3-1; in fact, you'd have to get all the way to 3-9 to equal 3-1. Again, this isn't surprising--if you look at all of the "equals", both records involved feature perfect squares for loss totals. The scores will be equal if (wins+losses)/(square root of losses) is equal:

(0+4)/2=2; (1+1)/1=2
(2+1)/1=3; (2+4)/2=3
(3+1)/1=4; (3+9)/3=4; (4+4)/2=4
(12+9)/3=7; (10+4)/2=7. Yes, if scores were given out to retired songs as well, songs that exited in Round 7 on their first try (6-1 records) would also have the same score, although champions' scores don't actually match this formula because the real scoring formula isn't technically counting losses, but rather appearances; the two numbers are identical for every song that isn't a champion.

And, yes, if I were to give out scores to all of the retirees as well, Zero-Two would have the highest, at approximately 96.57. Second place would be a tie between SPHILIA and Zero, at 85.33, followed in fourth place by Hope, at 84.5, and then Seize the Truth, which won it all on its first try, at 81. Can anyone break the 100 mark this contest?

...Yes, it is in fact mathematically possible. If Id ~ Purpose were to win it all, its average would become 5.00, so its score--average squared times appearances--would be exactly 100.00. And...that's the only one who would gain a score of 100 with a championship. Others of note (all numbers assume championship):

Blue Radiance: 96.00
Eleganza: 90.25
Nefertiti: 88.17
RftMIS/TBIYtC: 87.36
FCDH: 85.33
Battle with Magus: 84.10
MARIA, Emil/Karma, Red Locus, goldenslaughterer, or Shrine of Solomon: 81.00

Which, again, shows a silly point: with 64.00 being the new "first-time victor" score, to actually reach the eighties, you need at least 3 appearances (and to do it in that few, you'd need to go 4, 4, 8).
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

But enough about the best averages. This contest also features a number of songs with ignominious histories.

In blowing out Battle! Wally, Hitomi no LAZhWARD avoided becoming the 20th song to lose in the first round in each of its first three appearances. 15 of the first 19 have yet to return for a fourth try (though one of those 15 is the VLR version of Blue Bird Lamentation, which is back in the contest this year in its ZTD form...and, uh, the 19th song was Sigma Stage 1 in the opening match of VGMC11); three have gone to 0-4, and one, Solstice Title Theme, made it to Round 2 in its fourth try but now holds a record of 1-5.

LAZhWARD is the eleventh song to win its first match in its third appearance. 2 of those songs are now 1-3, and two others are 1-4, having returned a fourth time and making another first-round exit. 3 are 2-3, having made the third round after breaking through but never returning, while Frog's Theme is 2-4, having left in Round 2 but returning for another round 2 appearance. There is, however, some hope.

Magical Dreamers has managed to work its way up to a .500 record, aka a 2.00 average, having made Round 3 on its third attempt and then again on its fourth. And Meaning of Birth currently holds the distinction of being the only retired song to require three appearances just to make R2 for the first time, as well as the only one to make Round 4 in its third appearance after starting out its career with two first-round exits. It made Round 3 in its fourth try, round 4 again in its fifth, and finally retired on the sixth try, exiting just past the retirement round, for an overall record of 12-6. (It's not the only one to be 3-3 after three appearances with all three wins coming in the same contest. Still Alive, from Portal, made R4 in its first appearance but left in R1 in its only other two appearances, while Battle with Magus made R4 in its second appearance but left in R1 in its first and third. And I specify Portal because the other "Still Alive", from Mirror's Edge, is actually one of that trio that went 1, 1, 3 and then never returned.)

The 0-4 trio and Solstice Title Theme aren't the only songs with four first-round exits. Astaroth is 3-6, but two of the three wins came in the same year, while Reach for the Moon, Immortal Smoke, after reaching round 4 in each of its first 3 appearances (a record, though one that can be broken this year), Round 3 in its first four, and round 2 in its first five, is just 1-5 over its last 5 appearances. No song has lost in the first round five times. ...RftMIS certainly does hold a lot of records, doesn't it? Its four first-round exits are tied for a record, but so are its three fourth-round exits (with Id ~ Purpose and Zero-Two). Three songs in this contest have made it there twice and lost...and while we're at it, there are still two more songs with 0-2 records thus far that are making their third appearance this contest.

Interestingly enough, past performance tended to be a fairly accurate predictor of which returners on the bubble would actually make it. 19 songs were on the bubble, of which 12 had to make it; 11 of these 19 songs would be returners if they made the field. Now, the actual ratio of newcomers to returners was skewed--with that split, a 7-5 split would be expected, but it was actually 6-6--but based on the formula for "top unretired songs", the six that made it were 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and t8 among the 11. If It Has To Be This Way (3 appearances, average 2.33) had made it instead of Fear Not this Night (never made Round 3 in two appearances, though it made R2 both times), the bubble would have perfectly favored the stronger proven commodities. (Had the actual 7-5 split come to pass, the 7th one that would've needed to make it would be Don't Be Defeated by a Friend!--one 3rd-round appearance trumps a 2.0 average over two.)
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

This record can't be broken, but it can still be tied, because Sphilia only carried a 3.5 average into its third contest, not a 4.0; one that carries a 4.0 (like FCDH this year) could still tie it by winning it all.

It took me a solid two minutes to reason out this statement, because I'm a dumbass that forgot I shaved an entire round off the contest last year. (And didn't read the post line by line where it was stated previously.)

Also, shouldn't your first entry include Scars of Time? I mean, it did have to win 8 matches...


Speaking of things people need to do, I should probably prepare to start the first match, huh...ah geez, that means I need to start inventing poll ideas.

I just followed what the sheet said. I don't actually remember how the final rounds of VGMC1 worked, because the number of entrants wasn't a power of 2; currently it's marked as though the field was halved every round for 6 rounds and then there was a single 3-way final, which I'm pretty sure wasn't the case.

Also, on the subject of that statement, Zero actually tied Sphilia's record when it won VGMC7.

A full list of songs with averages above 4.0 despite failing to retire on the first try:

Hope, 6.50 (4, 9)
Metal Gear Solid Main Theme (MGS2), 5.50 (2, 9)
"Reset" ~ "Thank You" Version, 5.50 (2, 9)
Papilliones, 5.50 (2, 9)
Dire, Dire Docks, 5.50 (4, 7)
Dark Cloud Main Theme, 5.50 (4, 7)
Solaris Phase 2, 5.50 (4, 7)
Re-CODA, 5.50 (4, 7)
Wicked Flight, 5.50 (4, 7)
EXEC_SPHILIA/., 5.33 (3, 4, 9)
Zero, 5.33 (4, 3, 9)
Despair of ELFERIA, 5.00 (2, 8)
White Devil, 5.00 (4, 6)
Tin Soldiers, 5.00 (4, 6)
Shop Music, 5.00 (4, 6)
Ricordando il passato, 5.00 (4, 6)
Dragon Roost Island, 4.50 (1, 8)
Trombe!, 4.50 (1, 8)
the executioner, 4.50 (1, 8)
Sburban Jungle, 4.50 (2, 7)
Potential for Anything, 4.50 (2, 7)
Rusty Ruins Act 2, 4.50 (3, 6)
Positive Force, 4.50 (3, 6)
Halo Theme Mjolnir Mix, 4.50 (3, 6)
The Liberation of Gracemeria, 4.50 (3, 6)
Tal Tal Heights, 4.50 (4, 5)
Paper Dolls, 4.50 (4, 5)
Yoru no Himawari, 4.50 (4, 5)
Memories of You, 4.50 (4, 5)
The Extreme, 4.33 (1, 3, 9)
You're Not Alone!, 4.33 (2, 4, 7)
Boss Battle: Big Arms, 4.33 (4, 4, 5)

32 songs in all, with an additional 11 that are at 4.00 exactly (including one that took 4 tries to retire, whereas no one on this list took more than 3). A number of songs can of course join this list this time.

2nd appearance: Anyone. As you can see there, even if your first appearance was 1-and-done, if you win it all on your second appearance, your average would be at least 4.5.
3rd appearance: 2.5 average or better.
4th appearance: 3.0 average or better.
5th appearance: 3.25 average or better.
6th appearance: 3.4 average or better.

And so on. This is to be better than 4.00; if Blue Radiance wins it all, its average would become 4.00 exactly after 6 appearances. The formula, I suppose, would be 4-(3/x), where X is the number of previous appearances.
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

The assumption is that it's strong, but maybe LAZhWARD will prove otherwise.

As for sending Paradission to the slaughter, something had to go there. My initial evaluation of the song placed it too low, which I'm able to admit now without looking at the match results. Kolima Forest, OTOH, I'm amazed is walking away with even 5 votes. (Not including more detail than that, because ongoing match.)


I will be closing prediction brackets soon. Consider this your last warning to finish bracket A.

I can't disagree there. As I said earlier, I'm a big fan of Golden Sun from a gameplay standpoint but I'd have never really considered nominating anything from it for a VGMC.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

I'll confirm xp's spoilers. Would have posted last night, but I was exhausted and just staying awake til 10 so I could put the post up.

Results, day 4
Battle! Wally < Hitomi no LAZhWARD, 8-21
Hopes and Dreams > Paradission, 16-14
Knight of a Foreign Country > Rain of Blossoms, 22-8

Wally probably deserved a little better than being blown out 2.5:1 to a song that is likely to lose in round 2. Then again, Paradission held up really well against Holes and Dreams. Is that a sign of weakness, or is the MUSECA track just that good?


Side question: I don't know how many people, if any, are using the playlists I made, but when I've done that previously, I've consistently updated the list to move the newest matches to the top and pruned the songs that lost. So far this year I've been lazy, and wondered if it provided a nice aesthetic to have the whole field. So just taking a straw poll here -- who wants the playlists modified?

I'm hoping it's a sign of weakness; I felt that Hopes and Dreams was the weakest song in its eightpack. Undertale has plenty of great songs, but HaD isn't one of them. Of course, I wanted Paradission to be strong.

Mac Arrowny posted...

dowolf posted...

LastPandemic's not losing that match.

it can't.

i don't know if my heart could take it.

It's a match of two weak songs, so it could easily go either way.

You're joking, right? Blue Radiance is a proven commodity--five appearances and it's never missed Round 3. Now, LastPandemic is right in the sweet spot for what I like in a song, so my favorites bracket has it retiring...but I'd take every last one of the four songs that it would need to beat to get there over any of the songs that its fifth-round opponent would have possibly had to face (at least, if things followed my favorites bracket; I highly suspect that something will go wrong before Round 4. Though with how bad B4 is, there's probably more than one potential Round 4 opponent for LastPandemic or whatever else comes out of its half of B3 that I'd take over any potential R5 opponent other than Shrine of Solomon.)
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

lixAxil
Eleganza (Cthylla Stage)
An Ill Omen
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Contest ruined already.

Actually Dr. Fetus's Castle is a pretty good song in its own right. Still can't compete with those epic violins imo, though.
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Hitomi no LAZhWARD
Paradission
Knight of a Foreign Country
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

To Make the End of Battle
Hidra Heteromycin
Mikazuchi
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Mystic Core
Besaid Island
Mikazuchi
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Unfortunately, I took so long that I can't properly listen to the Masters Tournament field before the tourney starts, because I've got class today.

Eh, I'll just throw a quick bracket together. ...Wait, what, I thought we never got any good BDFF songs into the bracket! How'd this manage to make this bracket? ...Huh. I guess I did kind of miss both VGMC7 and VGMC9, didn't I? Though Ringabel and Edea's are better.

I seem to have lost sound midway through R2. Good thing I'm not taking this too seriously.
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

FL81 posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

speaking of which, we should try using the fighting game remixes more often

and I absolutely agree with this

hisoutensoku grimoire of alice when

I was thinking the same thing! Was actually going to suggest it in another post. Guess one of us will have to remember to nominate it for VGMC12.
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

I know you tried to channel the spirit of Ed Bellis, and that means giving tough first-round opponents to Touhou songs. And Touhoulikes, apparently; Swordfish seems to have gotten off just as badly as Movin' Out did. ...Or not.

I give tough first-round opponents to the songs I don't anticipate performing well. Like Magnets and Peper Steak. That doesn't mean, strictly speaking, that the converse is true, though. However, some of the Touhou tracks have perfectly winnable matches, and the two new songs from 14.5 are in middle-seed territory.

It was kind of a joke. I'm fine with the first-round matchups.
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Ugh, should've just posted my R2 and beyond thoughts instead of trying to take advantage of the extra room to start on the Masters Tournament as well. Not that I had much to say, since so many R1 matchups had me talking about how I'd easily take the winner in R2 over either potential R2 opponent. Only real tough ones for R2 and R3 were LastPandemic vs. Liberated Liberater in R2 and the winner of that match against Big Blue in R3.

Retirement and finals picks:

Reincarnation > Fear the Dark
Quantum Sea Lindwurm > Scraper Sky High (close one)
LastPandemic > Don't Speak Her Name! (painful, but the right call)
Shrine of Solomon > Occult Attract (though I kind of hope the anti-Touhou crew kills OA before then so that the rest of the pro-Touhou crew doesn't accidentally believe that it deserves to come back)

Reincarnation > Shrine of Solomon
Battle! Zinnia > Reincarnation

Battery's running low so I'll just post this.

Okay, now that I'm back and have extra space, let's see about expanding that "best average after [X] appearances" thing I started on.

Best average after 1 appearance: 9.00, Seize the Truth. This is a record that not only can't be broken, it can no longer be tied; with the reduced field size, a first-timer winning it all would only have an 8.00 average.
Best average after 2 appearances: 6.50, Hope. Again, this record can't even be tied anymore, because it took Hope losing in the retirement round in its first appearance and then winning it all in its second at a time that the field was larger; if YOaTI, Big Blue, or Dr. Fetus's Castle were to repeat that feat this year, they'd only have 6.00 averages.
Best average after 3 appearances: 5.33, EXEC_SPHILIA/. This record can't be broken, but it can still be tied, because Sphilia only carried a 3.5 average into its third contest, not a 4.0; one that carries a 4.0 (like FCDH this year) could still tie it by winning it all.
Best average after 4 appearances: 4.00, Memories of Distant Days. Huh, didn't see that coming. MoDD only just managed to retire on its fourth try, but it brought a 3.67 average in. That means that Id ~ Purpose will break that record if it retires, and can tie it just by reaching the retirement round for the 4th straight year and falling short.
Best average after 5 appearances: 3.40, Reach for the Moon, Immortal Smoke/Awakening ~Nurburgring Suite~. Neither of whom is even retired, but they came damn close an awful lot. J-E-N-O-V-A would have to reach the contest finals to break that record this year, while Denshou no Shi -Verum- or YO-KAI Disco could break it by winning it all.
Best average after 6 appearances: 3.00, RftMIS/Zero-Two/Meaning of Birth/A~NS~, as stated previously. Also as stated previously, Blue Radiance only needs to reach Round 2 to tie that record, Round 3 to break it.
Best average after 7 appearances: 3.71, Zero-Two. Again, already said that--and again, it's a breakable record, since that was only a runner-up finish, not a championship, and Blue Radiance can break the record this year. If it does fall in the retirement round this year, it'd only have to reach R6 next year.
Best average after 8 appearances: 2.88, Someday the Dream Will End. Not surprising since it has the most appearances of any retired song.
Best average after 9 appearances: 2.44, RftMIS. If Terra ever does get brought back for a 9th appearance, it'd need to retire to tie that record and reach R6 to break it.
Best average after 10 appearances: 2.30, RftMIS/TBIYtC. Battle with Magus would tie this one with just one win this year.
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Okay, I'm used to really long songs taking awhile to get good--I remember last year's ToC, I judged The Extreme as being utter crap that should've never made it out of R1, much less won a contest, and then I realized that it's actually a really good song in spite of the first 30-40 seconds being utter crap. GBL Goddess Temple, however, is under two minutes long and takes 40 seconds to get good. Goodbye and good riddance, and good thing that even if it does make it out of R1 it's up against a superior song in R2 regardless of R1 result--not only to itself but also to its R1 opponent. Again. I'm not even sure which one I want to win that R1 match...wait, yes I am, this is the best rendition of Big Blue yet and I'm a fan of the earlier versions. God, I'm such a sucker for horns; that's probably why I like Touhou music so much.

Oh, hey, it's Ciel no surge again! And unfortunately, it's up against something really strong; Blue Radiance has a 3.20 average over five appearances, tied with Ezio's Family and Face of Fact for 2nd-best among songs with at least 5 appearances, behind only Zero-Two's 3.71. Face of Fact and Zero-Two both have their eventual retirements factored into those averages, though--and Someday the Dream Will End, Godsibb, and Meaning of Birth all have retirements as well and couldn't reach 3.2, or in StDWE's case, even 3.0. (Though that's not surprising; our three longest-tenured contestants would still have sub-3.00 averages if they won this contest. Battle with Magus could retire with a 3.00 average by reaching R4 this year and then winning VGMC12 (or whatever its next appearance is); RftMIS and TBIYtC would both have to reach R4 twice more and then win it all in VGMC13 to get their averages up to 3.00. Zero-Two managing to maintain such a high average is actually an impressive feat; it did take a 3.00 average into the contest that it ultimately won, one of just four entrants to have a 3.00 average after their sixth contest. The others are Meaning of Birth, which got helped out by its sixth contest being one where it retired, Awakening ~Nurburgring Suite~...and RftMIS. All of them were at 3.00 exactly. Though obviously, Blue Radiance only needs to beat LastPandemic to become the fourth, and it's not the only song that can join the club this contest: Nefertiti will get there by making Round 3, Another Winter by making R4, and In the Final by retiring.

Ah, I've been so caught up in this statistical stuff that I've been letting songs play out in their entirety and only half focusing, and I get back to focusing for...Fallen Angel vs. Daddy Mulk. The former, easily, but neither is great compared to what's before them.

Oh, good. I liked the last Drakengard song in the bracket, so I was a little worried when I saw one against Shrine of Solomon, but it's nothing to worry about...for me, anyway. Then we get into the crap zone--7:30 of boring Super Monkey Ball music, really? Occult Attract is probably the worst Touhou song in the contest and I advance it to R3 without a second thought.

FL81 posted...

azuarc posted...

I'm curious how well a random Touhou song would do if nobody knew it was Touhou. Would it overperform?

There's a reason I nominated Rose-Killing Carmilla!

;)

Well, worst Touhou song unless you're like this guy and count music from the fangames as actual Touhou music. It's not ZUN's style so I don't see why people would hate it... (speaking of which, we should try using the fighting game remixes more often; I personally think the Hopeless Masquerade version of Hartmann's Youkai Girl is amazing, better than the original.)

Actually, correction: I take Occult Attract to Round 4 without a second thought. This had better be the year that Shrine of Solomon retires.
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Okay, Bracket B time...oh, right off the bat. I guess I'll go with The Whereabouts of Light, but neither of these are songs that I'd definitively say that I "like" or "dislike"--it probably depends on how I feel on the day of the voting. Well, at least I won't have to worry about "how I feel" about the winner in Round 2, because I'd easily take Death by Glamour over either of them--almost as easily as I'm picking Twelfth Chapter against Death by Glamour in round 1.

Ugh. End of All was 1-and-done last year, and I think it will be again this year. Which is a shame because I think it's better than its predecessor, Id ~ Purpose--you know, just the third song in contest history to reach Round 4 in each of its first three contests? Not that I'm disappointed in that, because Id ~ Purpose is really good--as are the first two songs to do that, even though I've had my complaints about both of them already. (The second song to do that was Boss Battle: Big Arms, which actually retired on the third try after falling in Round 4 in each of its first two--for now, it's the only retired song to reach the retirement round in every contest it made that required three tries to finally retire, though 13 other songs retired on their second try after losing in the retirement round in their first, including VGMC4 champion Hope. Though there are 5 songs in this contest with an "average round" of 4--three making their second appearance, one making its third, and as stated, Id ~ Purpose making its fourth. As for the first song to reach R4 in its first three appearances...well, it's easy to forget since its "underperforming" meme has morphed into frequent early exits, but it's RFtMIS.)

Ooh, cool, an 8-bit track! And it's against snoozy AT3 music! Of course, this board actually loves AT music (and a lot of it really is good), so it won't go far. Speaking of slow vocal tracks, I already know that Fear Not This Night will beat Quantum Sea Lindwurm and I will be very unhappy when it happens, because that's B8's trends. On the subject of trends, it looks like Sonic's usual poor performances will actually be a positive this time, because Work it Out really sucks. Not that Atrocious Raid is any great shakes--this is another of those "I care less about the two first-round matches than that the winner of one beats the winner of the other in Round 2" fourpacks, in this case wanting Atrocious Raid/Work it Out to lose to Got hive of Ra/Boss Battle.

Okay, yeah, I can all but confirm now that what I was remembering from last year on the "it's not all bad" front was that it's not all Atelier music I hated, just Atelier Ayesha. I can't necessarily say that I want FCDH to become the fourth song to reach R4 in each of its first 3 contests, especially not up against a Touhou song in R1 and potentially an Ys song in R2...wait, hold up, I don't even think I'd vote for the Ys song in R1! But given B8's usual horrible picks, there's a very good chance that if it does make it out of its 4-pack, I'd vote for it in R3 and maybe even R4.

Damnit, FF7, stop screwing around with my expectations! I'm supposed to choose DKC2 songs just out of hand! Not that it matters because Ace Attorney songs have a fairly bad track record in this contest which means I probably don't have to worry about another awful R1 result, and there's no way either of those tracks can measure up to Don't Speak Her Name!.

And now we get an easy pick for an Ys song...but only that far; Nebula is quite solid. Running out of room so I guess it's time for another post!
---

FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Huh. There's a limit on edits? I'm not at the hour mark... Well, I wasn't when I started this, but seeing that, I waited until I'd finished to post this.

So, next opinion...ugh. An Atelier Ayesha track against something from a KVA VN? Well, I guess I'll go with the latter since that's just snoozy.

I was really surprised to discover that Spike in a Rail was one of the "newcomers"; I guess I just know it from BOST. It's really good, though. But that's by design, right? I know you tried to channel the spirit of Ed Bellis, and that means giving tough first-round opponents to Touhou songs. And Touhoulikes, apparently; Swordfish seems to have gotten off just as badly as Movin' Out did. ...Or not. Huh, glad I listened to this stuff before making up my bracket; I wouldn't have expected to be choosing either of the Acceleration of Suguri 2 matches the way I did.

...I'm going to have to try to listen through a lot of these songs all the way through just to get opinions, aren't I? I know how these vocal songs work; they often take a long time to get moving.

Again, why can't we get any good Bravely Default songs into this contest? I've played the game; I know they exist!

xp1337 posted...

Hidra Heteromycin getting Scrap I/O in Round 2. A1 is pretty mean in general but geez.

I think you mean Hidra Heteromycin getting To Make the End of Battle. Though I'll agree that that's an absolutely brutal 4pack--a brutal eightpack, actually; I ended up having to redo my first round because I just instinctively went towards the ORAS song in Round 1, then when I went to "confirm" that Hitomi no LAZhWARD was the only song in that 8-pack that I wouldn't be happy to see come out of that 8pack, I discovered that...I actually want it to come out of that 8pack. I think. Paradission's really good, too.

Speaking of "What's with Board 8 and bad taste in [x]", S3&K is full of great 16-bit music and the board keeps taking crappy remixes. I'm still happy that Big Arms retired, but it's inferior to the original, and this Flying Battery is far inferior to the original; I think I'm actually picking against it as early as R2, and the original is one of my favorite VGMs ever.

Ultimate choices for Bracket A retirement round and finals:

Battle! Zinnia > Hitomi no LAZhWARD
Birth of a God > Septette for the Dead Princess
Swordfish > Dungeon of Dreams
MAXIMUM HIGH SPEED > Soar

Battle! Zinnia > MAXIMUM HIGH SPEED

...what. I know that FF music didn't really start getting awful until the PS2 era, but I didn't expect to pick against Septette this early, and certainly not for an FFVII song. Well, at least I still ultimately went with something I was already familiar with as my favorite in Bracket A.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

trdl23 posted...

azuarc posted...

I'm curious how well a random Touhou song would do if nobody knew it was Touhou. Would it overperform?

You mean Battle Against a True Hero?

I've considered nominating Himorogi, Burn In Violet just to see if the Touhou name really does hurt things, but it's not as if The Decisive Battle has a stellar history itself--one round appearance in an early VGMC, then gone for six years and 1-and-done when it returned.

But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if an Undertale song would be able to qualify for that distinction; back when Homestuck songs were allowed in the contest, I had every intention of circumventing the franchise limit for Touhou by nominating Heir Conditioning. I actually did briefly have a nomination in this year for a song that is sort of a disguised Touhou remix in parts, but only vaguely.

ImTheMacheteGuy posted...

as a fan of Touhou music, I find it depressing beyond words that reach for the moon and ghost lead were nominated. I don't get how people can enjoy bland garbage tunes so much. Those 2 are like that nickelback you remind me song.

RFtM isn't one of my top Touhou tracks, either; I generally only throw support behind it if it's actually in danger, because Touhou is still better than no Touhou (that's why I ended up throwing support behind tracks others nominated even though I'm not familiar enough with the most recent games to have though to nominate much from beyond UFO myself).

But it is a song that B8 likes, in its own weird way. A few years ago, I ran a Touhou-only music contest, and RFtM lost in the second round...only to finish third in the X-stats, as it only lost by 1 vote and its vanquisher put up the best fight of any of the eventual champion's opponents. The next year, I ran another one, and while its own loss wasn't quite as close, bumping it down to 10th in the X-Stats (besides, "3rd" was actually tied with 2nd, as the champion won its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight matchups by identical scores), it once again lost to an opponent that immediately turned around and lost to the eventual champion by a margin close enough to make it #2 in the X-Stats.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Dang, I procrastinated...guess I'll just briefly listen to each song for first impressions to help fill out the more unknown songs for a favorites bracket, and only give them a full listen for the contest itself. Though I should probably extend the courtesy of a full listen to the first few songs since they'll be in action tonight.

And quick impression: Shit, man, Movin' Out vs. Hidra Heteromycin in Round 1? That's cruel! But no contest; Hidra Heteromycin it is, and goddamnit you'd better run BOST this year because seeing how well the Ar Tonelico/Ar Nosurge tracks have tended to be received, there has to be something on the Stella Glow soundtrack that people would like and I need to figure out what it is. Based on EXEC_LINCA/. only having a single 1st-round exit, though, I think there are a few songs I can rule out, though I'll reconsider that if it somehow goes on a run this year.

Other thoughts: Why did we nom Kolima Forest, anyway? I got on board because I'm a huge Golden Sun fan, but it's a kind of dull track imo. Also...I didn't really expect to like Seymour Battle, seeing as how I remember voting for the original version in its eventual retirement round because I didn't really care that much for its opponent, but would have much rather seen that song return for future contests than Seymour Battle. I remember being told that that's not the reason you're supposed to vote for something to retire, but that was my reasoning--I wanted it out of the contests. I kind of see where I might have disliked part of it, but...actually, I guess I can see why I might have liked it less when it wasn't HD. ...That said, I think I still prefer its first-round opponent.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

+3 KCF0107
+1 neonreaper
+2 Ngamer64

+2 LordoftheMorons
+3 pjbasis
+1 Maniac64 (muddersmilk)
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

Set 1
+1 Ulti
+3 GuessMyUserName
+2 PrinceKaro

Set 2
+2 Paratroopa1
+3 MysteriousStan
+1 Team Rocket Elite

Toughest choice was the second group's +3. If this were round 1, Para would get it for sure, but foolmo is literally the only B8 regular on my ban list.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

That's not a bad starting point. I'm basing positioning on more than strictly past performance, though, because some songs have seriously over- or under-performed before. GBL Goddess Temple is a great example. Although there's some bias here since I brought the track to the board, it lost really stupidly (IMO) in its first appearance by a single vote, to a song that got slaughtered in round 2. Because it was so low on the X-stats, it was slotted as fodder the next year, and put up a good fight but still lost. By outward appearance, its record is 1/1, but it's certain to be stronger than that record would indicate. Conversely, Soar and Location of Power have both made round 3 in the past, but I don't have much confidence for them to repeat. I seem to recall LoP emerged from a weak four-pack. I'm certainly not reckoning either to be the one to boss around its three closest neighbors.

Well, those things tend to sort themselves out.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

5-seeds, start with the other two with 2.0 averages over two appearances, then add in six of the other seven with multiple appearances and at least one R2 appearance. 6-seeds, the last of them, plus the six returners with 1 appearance who left in R2 and one of the two with multiple first-round exits. The other is a 7-seed (preferably opposite the matching 6-seed) along with starting on returners with just a lone 1st-round exit.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

But what I was trying to say before I had to cut things short was that it's tough to gauge the "strength" of a newcomer, especially since we did away with seeding and as such people withdraw nominations from things they legitimately want in, sometimes quite severely, if those things would be safe even without their votes; this means that there isn't much difference between the most-nominated song and one that was right on the bubble. (3/3 was the bubble, so it took 4 votes to get something definitively safe; a grand total of six songs managed to get to 5, and five of those were returners) But for returners, I'd assume that Blue Radiance, Id ~ Purpose, Nefertiti, Eleganza (Cthylla Stage), MARIA, Emil/Karma, Red Locus, goldenslaughterer, and Shrine of Solomon should probably be kept as far apart as possible--this newly reduced field only produces 8 retirees per year instead of 16, so at least one of those will have to fail to retire again, but it should probably be made possible for as many as 8 of those 9 to retire since they all have at least 3 past appearances, an average round of at least 3, and no first-round exits. (If I had to choose two to put together, it'd have to be Nefertiti and Blue Radiance, since they've each been in the competition 5 times and only reached round 4 once apiece, though they still maintain 3+ averages by combining for 0 first-round exits and 1 second-round exit.) To fill out the "2-seeds", probably go with Another Winter (5 appearances, no first-round exits, 1 4th-round appearance); In the Final (5 appearances, no first-round exits); Flying Clouds, Drifting Haze (only debuted two contests ago, but reached Round 4 in both of the last two); Denshou no Shi -Verum- (four appearances, exited in first round in debut but has gone one round further with each successive appearance); YO-KAI Disco (4 appearances, no first-round exits)...those five are the only ones that I'd definitely say "don't let them meet one of the previous nine until Round 4". For the others, I guess the best fits would actually be Battle with Magus and The Best Is Yet To Come, the former of which has made Round 2 of every contest since missing VGMC4 entirely and the latter of which has made Round 2 of every contest since VGMC4, though you could also consider J-E-N-O-V-A, which has a better average than both; I left it out because while it does have 4 prior appearances and a 2.75 average, it last appeared in VGMC5--and still has a more recent first-round exit than either of those two, since it went 1 and done in VGMC4.

3-seeds...we'll slot J-EN-O-V-A in there, along with RFTMIS (I know, it only still manages a 2+ average because it had a 3.75 average after VGMC4, but it's a mainstay--and besides, with just over half the field being newcomers, I'd try to make sure no pair of returners meets in Round 1--and newcomers trashing RFTMIS is a tradition.), Butterfly's Invitation (two appearances, 3.5 average), YOATI (only one prior appearance, but reached R4), Big Blue (same), Dr. Fetus' Castle (also same), Learning to Type-Pokémon Adventure Boss Battle (3 prior appearances, 2.67 average with one 4th-round appearance--I missed this because it's in the database under two different names, one for its VGMC 6 & 7 appearances and one for its VGMC 8 & 11 appearances), and I'll Face Myself (two appearances, 2.5 average)

4-seeds, we've got 6 songs with one prior apearance who reached R3, plus Fear Not This Night (2 appearances, R2 both times) and pick one of the others with a 2.0 average in 2 appearances (there are three who have 3, 1).
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

Just an update for the start of a new page...

Listened through mostly everything last night before bed, started to pick out some of the stronger songs for positioning. I placed maybe a quarter of the tracks. Assuming I haven't grossly mis-evaluated anything, that's actually the easier part. Positioning the middle tracks is a lot trickier, as is coming up with first round pairings. Inevitably, I will Ed Bellis you at some point, but I hope to minimize the number of songs that go out earlier than they objectively should.

Honestly not certain how much I'll get done today. I do have a few other things to turn my attention toward today, as well as several jobs later on.

That is a tough decision. I'm assuming that anything near the top of the "Top Unretired" list is automatically considered strong, except for the ones that got there on sheer attrition? I like the formula for "top unretired", by the way--number of appearances times average round squared, thereby putting stronger emphasis on the latter. I might tweak it slightly to find a way to break ties, but this is definitely good. An example of two that are considered tied: both Denshou no Shi -Verum- and YO-KAI Disco are making their fifth appearance, and both have averaged 2.5 over their first four, but the former is clearly getting stronger--1, 2, 3, 4, in that order--while the latter has made Round 2 in all four of its appearances but has never made round 4. At the very least, I'd consider the Round 4 appearance an advantage. Maybe a 2-point bonus for each R4 appearance and a 1-point bonus for each R3 appearance. In the example of 4 appearances adding up to 10, this would mean that 3/3/3/1 would still equal 4/3/2/1, but both would exceed 3/3/2/2 and fall short of 4/4/1/1.

...Although I suppose that some "recency factor" has to factor into it. After all, our two stalwarts, RFTMIS and TBIYTC, both have averaged 2.3 over their 10 previous appearances, but my proposition would have the former as the "stronger" one (3 4th-round appearances and 1 3rd-round appearance even though their "comparative record" is 6-3-1 in the latter's favor and 6-0-0 over the most recent 6 (the former's 4th-round appearances came in VGMC 1-3 and its 3rd-round appearance in VGMC4, which was the first time the latter reached R3; it's reached R4 once since then and R3 two other times.)
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

LeonhartFour posted...

Mac Arrowny posted...

I would've voted Sunleth Waterscape but it's gotten into a contest before and failed.

Lots of retired songs failed the first time.

Yeah. I just made a list of every song that's been in at least 4 contests (including those making their 4th appearance this time), and there are 15 retirees--10 that retired on their 4th try, 2 on their 5th, and one each on their 6th, 7th, and 8th.

Of note: 5 of the 10 that retired on their 4th try were on their 4th consecutive try, with 3 of the remaining 5 making their 4th try in 5 years. Only The Last Duel and Small Two of Pieces, both of which first appeared in VGMC1 and finally retired in VGMC8, missed multiple years.

Also never missing a contest between first appearance and finally retiring: Godsibb, which first appeared in VGMC2 and finally retired on its fifth try in VGMC6.

Other odd facts:

Every song that appeared in VGMC 1-4 also appeared in VGMC5 (even including retirees--not one song retired in VGMC4 that had been in each of the first three). The same cannot be said about any other 4-year span and the year immediately following it, but oddly enough, every song that appeared in VGMC 6-9 and did not retire in VGMC9 is in this year's field. (8 songs total, half of which were missing from last year's field.)

6 songs appeared in each of the first six VGMCs, only half of which appeared in VGMC7. None of the three that did appear in VGMC7 are retired yet, but two of the three that didn't are (Zero-Two, which came back in VGMC8 and immediately retired, and Someday the Dream Will End, which also returned in VGMC8 but didn't retire until VGMC9).

The only two songs that appeared in every contest from VGMC 4 through VGMC 9 are the two songs that have appeared in all 11 contests; this is not true of any other 6-year span, and four of the other five have at least one song that has only appeared during those six contests. (Investigation ~ Cornered for 1-6; Electric Power Building for 2-7; Awakening ~Nurburgring Suite~ for 3-8, and Blue Radiance for 6-11; the only song besides TBIYTC and RFTMIS that was in every contest from 5-10 is Battle with Magus, which has been in every contest except VGMC4.)

Three songs have appeared in at least four contests without ever appearing in two consecutive contests. Ice Cap Zone Act 1 was in 3, 5, 7, and 9; Krook's March in 2, 6, 8, and 11; and Septette for the Dead Princess in 3, 5, 7, and 11. Two others also have three separate occasions of missing at least one contest between appearances, but also have appeared in consecutive contests before: Solstice Title Theme, which appeared in the first 2 contests as well as 6, 8, and 10, and Sky Tower, which appeared in 1, 3, 4, 7,and 10.

The only song to appear in consecutive contests on 3 separate occasions (which is to say, with at least one missed contest between the end of one streak and the start of the next) is Meaning of Birth, which appeared in VGMC 1-2, 5-6, and 8-9. If it fails to retire this year, J-E-N-O-V-A can join it by making the field next year, as it previously appeared in each of the first five contests except VGMC3.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle

azuarc posted...

Not to undercut your work, tsunami, since I won't be doing any analysis, but I have also gone through the field and determined their past history. You can find that info under the "The Field" tab.

Fair enough. Was going to get disappointed about doing all that work for nothing, but your brief history didn't differentiate between something returning after a long hiatus and something that debuted recently and has been on the verge ever since.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle