Lurker > red sox 777

If you guys have any reason to disagree with me, you are free to make your argument. Otherwise, I think it's almost fair to conclude you don't have any.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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For people who want a more in depth look at this problem, read Paul Romer's paper, The Trouble with Macroeconomics. He's the 2012 Nobel winner in Economics.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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People are way too trusting of studies, especially the ones who use a 95% confidence interval. It means based on the data, X is 95% probable to be within some range.

But consider, what happens when a model does not produce significant results or produces boring ones? It doesn't get published and the author is perfectly allowed to try again. If you run 20 models with no real validity, chances are decent that 1 of them will appear significant using a 95% confidence threshold.

If the study results conflict with your intuition, you should be even less trusting of the study. Especially when the methodology (polling people) has directly underperformed Republican intuition in very recent history (the 2016 election).

And remember, this entire question is a matter of feelings. Whether one supports delaying the 2020 election is entirely a question of feeling. It is inherently not fact-based.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sounds like the European diplomats are salty that Trump doesn't want to be their friend. And probably, that two big elections went against them in 2016.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Far prefer Trump's foreign policy to Hillary's. Probably better than Bernie in this area too. And Jill Stein.

not sure if he's better than hillary but i disagree with him being better than bernie and i STRONGLY disagree with him being better than stein. i far prefer stein's ideas on dealing with ISIS to trump's brute force "LET'S BOMB THE SHIT OUT OF THEM WHO CARES ABOUT THE THOUSANDS OF CIVILIAN DEATHS LOL" method. and stein would have never, ever impulsively sent a bunch of missiles to syria because her daughter was crying about some news report.

The US is not really doing much there. The main impetus is coming from Russia and Iran. Although, I guess both would still fight hard against ISIS even if Hillary had been elected. Putin would still look strong for actually dealing with ISIS while Hillary complained about Russia.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Trump's foreign policy is reminiscent of Nixon- practical and unfettered by ideology, while talking like a scary ideologue to gain leverage. Hopefully, we'll see the same good results down the road.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Far prefer Trump's foreign policy to Hillary's. Probably better than Bernie in this area too. And Jill Stein.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Alaska
Washington
Oregon
California
Arizona
Nevada
Utah
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Illinois
Texas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland
Delaware
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
Minnesota

32 states. Hopefully I'll complete the whole set in my lifetime.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Republicans messed up in letting Democrats control the narrative. Should have pushed straight repeal from the start.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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By imperial decree the goalposts shall be moved 10 yards closer to the center of the field, to increase scoring.
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They did have a plan. Straight repeal.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

red sox 777 posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

red sox 777 posted...

That wasn't a red line, any more than NK's weekly promises to unleash nuclear war over the slightest provocation. NK can't cross a red line that doesn't exist.

If the world can't take the US's word seriously on matters of foreign policy that's a huge fucking problem (albeit, admittedly, less of a problem than nuclear war).

No reasonable person understood it as a genuine red line, so no credibility will be lost.

Like, asking NK not to threaten? That's like asking someone to stop breathing. It's about as plausible as the German ultimatum to Belgium in 1914. Threatening others is the foundation of the existence of the North Korean state.

There was no way they would comply with that, meaning either it was not a red line but just bluster, or it was an ultimatum designed to offer a pretext for a war. But I think everyone knew it wasn't the latter, from the moment it was said.

"Everyone knew it wasn't credible, so no credibility is lost"?

Precisely.
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And this was precisely Obama's problem with negotiation. He said what he wanted from the start! Then when the other side simply said no, he was left without good options.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

red sox 777 posted...

That wasn't a red line, any more than NK's weekly promises to unleash nuclear war over the slightest provocation. NK can't cross a red line that doesn't exist.

If the world can't take the US's word seriously on matters of foreign policy that's a huge fucking problem (albeit, admittedly, less of a problem than nuclear war).

No reasonable person understood it as a genuine red line, so no credibility will be lost.

Like, asking NK not to threaten? That's like asking someone to stop breathing. It's about as plausible as the German ultimatum to Belgium in 1914. Threatening others is the foundation of the existence of the North Korean state.

There was no way they would comply with that, meaning either it was not a red line but just bluster, or it was an ultimatum designed to offer a pretext for a war. But I think everyone knew it wasn't the latter, from the moment it was said.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Not sure what is scary about fire and fury. It's about as vague as possible, leaving maximum room to save face. Everyone already knows that the US can produce fire and fury.

Being vague about red lines is exactly how the other side accidentally steps across them and you get into a war.

That wasn't a red line, any more than NK's weekly promises to unleash nuclear war over the slightest provocation. NK can't cross a red line that doesn't exist.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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You mean improvisation is scary? The president needs to be able to improvise, and it's not particulary hard to come up with "fire and fury" on the spot. I could do that.

The most threatening thing Trump has done in foreign policy was launching the missiles against Bashar Assad's forces while having dinner with Xi Jinping, and informing him of it during dinner. There's almost no way that wasn't seen as a veiled threat.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Not sure what is scary about fire and fury. It's about as vague as possible, leaving maximum room to save face. Everyone already knows that the US can produce fire and fury.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Idling time is fair, it's time you need to spend on call, doing nothing else.
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And the way to stop farm jobs from being outsourced if illegal immigrants are not allowed to work here is to put up big tariffs on imported food. Then Americans will be able to earn a living wage through farm labor, and it will be paid for largely by the middle class, who will pay more for food.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Farm owners are so used to the low wages they pay that they refuse to pay the higher wages demanded by American workers. Going from $10/hr to $20/hr (which is probably where you'd need farm labor wages to be to attract Americans) is a 100% increase. Plus, they'll have to provide health insurance, a matching social security contribution, and if Americans are injured on the job, they are ready to sue. In total, we're probably looking at a 150% increase to costs, minimum.

And, I'm not sure $20/hr is enough. You can make almost as much driving an Uber, which is vastly more pleasant. It's driving around in a nice air-conditioned car vs. backbreaking labor in the hot sun.

Now, if we don't allow illegal immigrants to do the farm jobs, eventually wages will stabilize at a rate Americans will accept, once farm owners adapt to the new reality (with a big cut to their profit margins). Or, if they cannot turn a profit at any wage acceptable to Americans, then the farms will mechanize or shut down. If more mechanization is too expensive, we'll end up cutting our farm production and exporting less food. If it's extreme enough a shift, we might become a net importer of food.

Most uber drivers make minimum wage or lose money.

Lose money for tax purposes or actually have negative cash flow?

I mean, I guess the vehicle cost will eat the profits.

After taxes, gas, idle time, car depreciation, etc. Car depreciation and time idling is isually not calculated a lot by people. Some ubder drivers make decent money but they are the minority in it.

That's true, although I don't think it impacts my feeling too much regarding farm labor wages.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Farm owners are so used to the low wages they pay that they refuse to pay the higher wages demanded by American workers. Going from $10/hr to $20/hr (which is probably where you'd need farm labor wages to be to attract Americans) is a 100% increase. Plus, they'll have to provide health insurance, a matching social security contribution, and if Americans are injured on the job, they are ready to sue. In total, we're probably looking at a 150% increase to costs, minimum.

And, I'm not sure $20/hr is enough. You can make almost as much driving an Uber, which is vastly more pleasant. It's driving around in a nice air-conditioned car vs. backbreaking labor in the hot sun.

Now, if we don't allow illegal immigrants to do the farm jobs, eventually wages will stabilize at a rate Americans will accept, once farm owners adapt to the new reality (with a big cut to their profit margins). Or, if they cannot turn a profit at any wage acceptable to Americans, then the farms will mechanize or shut down. If more mechanization is too expensive, we'll end up cutting our farm production and exporting less food. If it's extreme enough a shift, we might become a net importer of food.

Most uber drivers make minimum wage or lose money.

Lose money for tax purposes or actually have negative cash flow?

I mean, I guess the vehicle cost will eat the profits.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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_Kaz posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Now, if we don't allow illegal immigrants to do the farm jobs, eventually wages will stabilize at a rate Americans will accept, once farm owners adapt to the new reality (with a big cut to their profit margins). Or, if they cannot turn a profit at any wage acceptable to Americans, then the farms will mechanize or shut down. If more mechanization is too expensive, we'll end up cutting our farm production and exporting less food. If it's extreme enough a shift, we might become a net importer of food.

Are any countries net exporters of food? The concept seems odd to me, even for countries with a cash crop (bananas, whitefish, etc.).

Also, another possible reality is that produce becomes "organic" (as in locally sourced) and prices raise significantly across the board.

Yes, the United States is a huge net exporter of food!
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Farm owners are so used to the low wages they pay that they refuse to pay the higher wages demanded by American workers. Going from $10/hr to $20/hr (which is probably where you'd need farm labor wages to be to attract Americans) is a 100% increase. Plus, they'll have to provide health insurance, a matching social security contribution, and if Americans are injured on the job, they are ready to sue. In total, we're probably looking at a 150% increase to costs, minimum.

And, I'm not sure $20/hr is enough. You can make almost as much driving an Uber, which is vastly more pleasant. It's driving around in a nice air-conditioned car vs. backbreaking labor in the hot sun.

Now, if we don't allow illegal immigrants to do the farm jobs, eventually wages will stabilize at a rate Americans will accept, once farm owners adapt to the new reality (with a big cut to their profit margins). Or, if they cannot turn a profit at any wage acceptable to Americans, then the farms will mechanize or shut down. If more mechanization is too expensive, we'll end up cutting our farm production and exporting less food. If it's extreme enough a shift, we might become a net importer of food.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Your view of who is a terrible person is greatly influenced by where and how you were raised.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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You guys really don't appreciate a good game of 4D chess! I think we need to reform the schools here.....cut something, and have more classes on 4D chess.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I'm not worried about Trump and Kim. They are both masters in the art of making ambiguous and threatening statements to get something, otherwise known as the art of the deal. I'm sure they'll eventually arrive at a deal which allows the two leaders to save face. That won't be war, as at least one of them is sure to lose face if there is a war.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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1850s plantation owners found abolitionism to be morally wrong, and would no doubt find it just as morally wrong in 2017 as in 1850. People in 2200 may agree with 2017....or maybe with 1850. People in 2400 may have yet another opinion.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I'd imagine Corrik's argument is that devoting resources to help drug addicts encourages people to use drugs, causing a net increase in drug addiction. I don't agree because I don't think people choose to become addicted with much of a rational thought process.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Pretty much, if you've been born you've sinned and don't deserve treatment. We should be devoting more resources to protecting innocent babies who have yet to be born.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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The death panels are coming.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Seems like he'd have a stronger case if Google was the government, which it isn't.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Presumably, if you won your medal 3 Olympics ago, you are retired from the sport and can't help America win any more medals.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Reg posted...

Selling health insurance across state lines will just result in basically every plan being sold in the state with the fewest costs and restrictions. The credit card market is already this way.

So lower premiums for everyone and more jobs for poor Republican states that voted for Trump.
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And in case it isn't obvious, no one is suggesting that anyone be forced to sell across state lines.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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State laws are not regulations under the control of the federal Congress, so I don't see the relevance to a federal bill to modify Obamacare (a federal statute).

As far as the rest, of course, economies of larger scale have an advantage. Now, if you let, say, California and Wyoming be in the same market, it's very doubtful CA would see much change at all. On the other hand, WY could see a significant change.

I don't buy the state lines thing as some panacea for the US because my sense is that overall, the state lines are not having a very big effect on health insurance now. But it's some small step in the right direction.
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Ashethan posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Selling across state lines is good.

Except you know... regulations aren't the only barrier to selling across state lines.

What other barriers are there? State laws? I mean, if a state votes to have laws that create barriers, that's their choice. It's actually not that easy for states to legislate about interstate commerce without getting superseded by federal law under the supremacy clause and commerce clause, by the way.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Selling across state lines is good.

Giving more money to insurance companies or setting up government funded reinsurance to "limit their losses" though, is not good policy in my opinion. Insurance companies don't need to be protected, if you pay them more they will happily eat the increased profits without reducing premiums.

In a market-based system, you need an incentive for insurers to lower premiums. This problem solver plan still doesn't do that. This kind of laser like focus on the supply side without considering the demand side at all is really spurious. All I can say is that Reagan won. Won really really hard.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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A grand jury does not have the power to impeach though. Only Congress can do that.
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Nixon and earlier had a pre-TV environment.

Besides, imagine Hillary saying, "I am not a crook." If she could say that, openly and directly, with no word games, like Nixon did, she might have won.
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Cuz Ted Cruz had a message. He was the true movement conservative's choice.
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And as far as elections go, it's better to be an evil shrew than privileged and low energy IMO. Just look at Jeb's disastrous results at the polls!
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That's because Jeb comes off as privileged and low energy, not as conniving, although both are really uncharismatic. Hillary was an exceptionally bad candidate. My guess for why she was so much worse than a typical politician for charisma is that normally, people without charisma don't get to run for high office. But Hillary has a very famous, charismatic, popular, husband who made her nationally well known. And Jeb has a very famous brother and father.
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They would probably do better to talk about the total wealth destroyed, rather than percentages. I think 0.3% of US stocks is pretty close to $100 billion.

And, since Trump took office, the average (arithmetic mean) American has gotten about $16,000 richer from stocks alone. And that includes children, retired, and unemployed people, so if you are an average (arithmetic mean) working person, you've probably gotten around 30k richer just from stocks.

Of course, Americans hold much more wealth in real estate than stocks, so really, you should be crediting Trump with a gain of at least 100k....and that's either gonna be taxed at 15% for stocks or 0% for real estate, as long as you always buy another house when you sell yours.

Given the high taxes imposed by Democrats on income from working, President Trump has increased your wealth by the equivalent of at least 150k in earned income in 6 months.

All while going on vacation every week and using most of his working hours fending off witch hunts. What a dealmaking master!

What's that you say? Median? No, no, arithmetic mean is much better, median is fake news, that's all folks.
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0.3% happens all the time. Like, without looking it up, I'd guess probably 30% of trading days experience a decline greater than that.
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If she can't talk to you, her first amendment rights are being infringed.
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I have no idea where you guys are coming from here. Zuckerberg would be a great candidate. Young, cool, built a company that makes products that the vast majority of the country uses and likes. Obviously very smart, and an outsider to politics.
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Cuz he ain't losing the 2020 election.
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SupremeZero posted...

Leafeon13N posted...

In a world where victory is usually decided by small percentage points, angering the portion of your power that supports trump is an easy way to lose an election.

Of course, angering basically EVERYONE ELSE is a rather better way, but hey!

You think those people are going to vote for Pence/Republicans even if they oust Trump? If they're voting against you either way, there's no benefit to catering to them.
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Trump has the votes. Republicans love power.
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If he said it's unconstitutional, it opens the door to him simply ignoring it and hoping a court will back him up, like how every president has ignored the statute on war powers passed in the 60s, claiming it's unconstitutional.
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