Lurker > Lopen

Also of interest

Lea followed my logic on "why would Peaf do this" perfectly and led me along the path of suspecting Dumey

Kirby was never proposed as a suspect which is weird because the more I explore this line this is the natural path

Kirby x Lea x Peaf just feels right to me

Everything kinda lines up that way. Peaf playing to our sympathy, Lea playing towards our hype, both subtly manipulating the town towards helping Kirby out

My only problem with that is why doesn't JC just get left with Lea and Kirby and JC is murdered? This feels easy to just let be. Unless Kirby was thinking pairing with Lea would make him look strange when JC had an open invite out?

Unless Peaf hadn't actually realized that JC and Lea had broken up at that point? He did say he didn't realize JC was trying to date Kirby-- could he have missed that as well?

I dunno. Kirby and Lea on a scumteam profiles as just the type of crazy one that would do something like this too.

I didn't say it was a gambit

I'm saying a busy scum player feels no compulsion to act if both paired with town and town is the one set to die

A busy scum player goes to work and lives to fight another day

If you want my guess it's that the play was to try to get me and FD to jump in first and isolate one of us that's why Peaf was woe is me about Kirby from the sidelines.

JCxLea breaking first messed with the calculations probably.

In any case the point is if Kirby is town and Dumey is town Peaf just afks. I can't imagine it not going down that way.

I think if it's just you and Peaf as scum Peaf feels no compulsion to jump in because the writing on the wall was Kirby pairs with Lea and JC dies

Someone from Dumey Lea JC is as necessary to make the play make sense as you are

Kirby321 posted...

Honestly, there's so many mental gymnastics you'd have to justify for saying anyone but me was scum in that last bit couple shuffling

I agree that's why we execute you today

You wanna follow the hot hand, he has spoken

You know Peaf, Dumey

You tell me if he thinks that it's worth the risk to make all that stink at end of day if Kirby is just town and he's tied to town.

Because this is a far cry from "not casting a tiebreaker vote." This is an insane gambit that puts all risk for possibly no reward. You'd expect it out of me or Lea, not Peaf.

The play there I think is Lea pairs with Kirby and JC and Peaf pair off as "team spurned lovers"

Once Kurt Angle got added to the mix I think the chaos just undid plans and Peaf was busy so they couldn't redo them

It can be three if it can be two. There is actually better reason to do it with 3 than 2 because you clear multiple scum if the narrative we are attempting to be fed is believed

You arbitrarily saying well two, sure, but three is based off of literally nothing.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

But Kirby wasn't drafting a message to pair up with JC or Dumey, he was drafting a message to pair with Lea.

I could buy Kirby Peaf Lea being it.

Chaeix posted...

Lopen baby if I were scum I would have just stayed shacked up with my girl Lea

The chain is

You attempt to save Kirby
Plan is aborted because killing Lea seems terrible
Peaf decides to play the shell game

Ultimately you need to have some reason for scum peaf to care to unpair. He doesn't just kill himself

That's why Kirby is probably scum. Figuring out the other scum is tricky but it's probably you Dumey or Lea

Lea is unkillable and wouldn't need Peaf to play hero

Like Peaf was putting EFFORT into a game where he was fairly passive and said he had things he needed to do

As scum. With "town" on the chopping block and being locked in a relationship with "town"

It makes zero sense. It's probably not Dumey and JC. It could be Dumey or JC and Kirby

EDumey posted...

Peaf was lone scum doing something dumb for town cred

Peaf was BUSY

I don't feel like it makes any sense with the amount of activity Peaf had and what he claimed (and why lie) was happening. It's so easy to just peace out if you have no vested interest in the result.

It probably is just Kirby

UltimaterializerX posted...

Red already explained why JC/Dumey/Peaf cannot be a trio with 2+ scum in it.

Can you walk it by me.

Kirby321 posted...

Then why would JC agree to be the first pair to split? Putting himself at risk when there was no guarantee that anyone else would follow is just as illogical as Peaf splitting from Dumey

He and Peaf would be on a scumboard at this point. Who knows what the scum would be scheming.

I mean no matter what Peaf's actions in an all town situation make zero sense. I think you need to assume scum exists there be it in Dumey Kirby or JC

Here's the mindset

Kirby JC Lea (Lea is dating Kirby probably and JC dies-- this is when Peaf jumped off)
Kirby JC Lea Dumey Peaf (now JC can take the Peaf life vest and Dumey or Kirby die)

Then you threw Kurt Angle into the mix when FD and I broke up and the chaos ate Peaf

Let's kill JC

Also I think if the pool is Kirby JC Lea

JC almost certainly dies

If you look at the pool at that point the play is Peaf is playing to save JC

Big thing that weirded me out about JC is he claimed vanilla like right away when he broke up

Almost like he wanted to get that claim out of the way when it was less sus

JC is also an option if you want Spice

FD and me don't enter the calculation as we weren't in the pool when he broke off
Lea doesn't either because Lea is never at any real risk

The hot hand thinks we just purge Dumey and/or Kirby

We go back to the old Razor and the only way Peaf breaking from Dumey makes sense is if other scum were involved at a critical point in the transaction

If it's town Kirby and town Dumey Peaf just... goes to work, like he said he was.

It makes no sense otherwise.

This is my official stance on the day. I think seeing Lea continue with Dumey reinvigorated me.

Oh you're still on that one. Yeah I dunno

I think C can be done without being informed (I felt the same way) and B was basically what you and Peaf did so it feels odd for you to call out on it.

And I still don't feel A had a lot of weight in terms of Sultan's actual gameplan. He said it wasn't a joke post but I do feel like him feeling compelled to post was a joke phase like energy

I just think there should be more at this stage. All your pings are very early game stuff aside from the Mzero reaction test (which is imo NAI-- Sultan does that kinda stuff as either alignment)

I think if I had the gun I'd kill Red atm.

But a lot of day left.

Like Dumey was the main thing I was out for because I'm basically the only person saying Dumey isn't towncleared

SirChris posted...

I don't even know why you bothered with the night chats

I was getting data to sanity check whether Lea was just going along with any suspicions I gave and being friendly or actually trying to help find scum

That was just an interesting find

Kirby321 posted...

It's like... what is there to analyze? Death is dead. Chris isn't. Death is bodyguard, so it's either him or Chris that was NK'd. There's not a whole lot of possibilities here, so it's no wonder most people ended up at the same conclusion.

I literally gave you a detailed analysis of night chat discussions that makes it pretty obvious that scum doesn't kill Chris

You being obtuse and claiming it's still a 50-50 situation feels scummish.

My point is people should basically be treating Death's flip as vanilla right now. It has basically no value in clearing Chris.

I honestly would like a better reason to actually lynch Sultan

Feels like it's mostly "these guys are town and Sultan is not" which is cop outty

EDumey posted...

MZero is the one you didn't mention here

Mzero I'm leaning town but soft bus of Peaf is possible despite me thinking it clears him. He also said occulam's Razor and cleared Chris quick which I did not like.

Kirby321 posted...

I don't think Death being the NK target is alignment indicative to Chris

I don't think so either that's not my point

I'm saying the analysis surrounding Death and Chris doesn't feel organic and people are eager to jump to conclusions one way or another

It feels like this shouldn't weigh a lot if you were already suspecting Chris, and the 99% if Death was shot is a nonsense statistic that is likely irrelevant because what scum team shoots Chris here

Ultimately I think that my logic of "Death Corrik and Isquen are town because scum doesn't play passively enough when finding dates to be left there" is pretty solid. And Peaf was battling that too, note.

EDumey posted...

Lopen and Lea, if neither of you are comfortable throwing me in the townie list, who out of Chris, FD, Red, Corrik, MZero, Sultan would you want to take out of the fight?

I'd sooner date you than Red at the moment. I think Sultan feels town. I think Corrik actually feels town. I think FD is probably town. Chris I'm on the fence and probably town but literally everyone in the game having some suspicion of him and multiple people willing to just say "well yeah he was bodyguarded" rather than reaching the better conclusion of "Death was killed" has me nervous.

The dumb answer here is that Ulti and Red are just the scumteam being blatant with a smart cop with awestruck rookie gimmick thing going on and I could see it.

So I'd date anyone but Red on that list.

Don't love the Lea post there. I don't think "turning" is exactly what I was doing.

Also think it's interesting that Chris supported my line of attack on Isquen which wasn't really great but violently battled my line of attack on Peaf at every step.

People who pushed for your suspicion today after bg flip

Ulti
Sultan
Isquen
Also me but I don't count imo

Red was also perhaps a bit basic in his analysis which pinged me as well. He insisted you were cleared as though you were obviously shot-- a lot of people in the game did not do that and after some analysis of suspect lists I would be extremely surprised if Death was not shot directly. He also insisted that scum would not shoot a bodyguard but would use their roleblocker on it perpetually? Did not make any sense to me.

I suspect Isquen more than Corrik at the moment basically entirely due to Isquen immediately absorbing the nuance of the BG role when he said he didn't register Peaf was scum.

I'm not sure he's scum but really absorbing that it's hard to accept for me.

Anyway

I'll date you for realsies today if you don't find any dates. So no worries. Solve and stuff

Let's sweep em.

SirChris posted...

Yar

Also good work lopen. You manifested your day 1 scum kill lol

Day 1 scum kill always believe. That's what wins mafia games imo

Isquen posted...

I am also ashamed to admit just how thick *I* am for not realizing Peaf was scum until a couple minutes ago.

This is super interesting in the context of

Isquen posted...

Didnt read the flip. He either bodyguarded Chris or was directly targeted.

This.

Why did Isquen know THIS flip like instantly when me glancing at it didn't absorb that when he didn't absorb Peaf was scum for 24 hours

Part of me is thinking Death got shot entirely so Chris could not towncase himself and end isolated today.

Now I need to think who was really going on Chris today even after the BG flip.

SirChris posted...

mzeros interactions with peaf don't seem partnered at all

I think I believe Chris's recount entirely due to this

This was something I found when Isoing Peaf as well. And it was notable as basically the only person who said anything anti-Peaf aside from me until late day

Incidentally this is why I'm considering if scum Lea is possible

She didn't really seem to have suspects of her own. Those were all mine. She did help talk through it but perhaps that was just her feeding rope to hang myself with.

In particular that we were the only room that gave scum Dumey ANY talk (and that she was actually going for it perhaps more than I was) is certainly interesting to me. She also brought up Ulti as a suspect more than me to her credit, like it wasn't all sheeping me or anything but she didn't bring any suspects that were like "nope" and we were full vibing on Dumey at least being worth considering (though I had mentioned I don't think Dumey and Chris are paired because Dumey had a big rant post on Chris that didn't feel theatre)

Given Death was killed and we were basically talking up a gameplan where we went after Death first as a feint to see if suspected scum would pair though, I don't know. Kinda think I'm overthinking it and it's Lea's personality to play along with ideas given and explore them rather than provide her own contradictory ideas. I dunno.

EDumey posted...

You know my answer to this. Did you and Lea humour the idea of scum Sultan at all?

Our only scum suspect talk were the four I mentioned.

Lea talked about Sultan and Mzero but not in a suspect manner.

Mzero x Sultan Chris
Dumey x JC Chris Ulti
Corrik x Isquen None

Here are the teams that did not mention suspicion of Death

Doesn't necessarily mean anything but if you assume scum is out for mislynches I would imagine at least one scum would be in these rooms.

However I could absolutely have seen Death being a straight power read.

The other funny angle to consider is if it was done to frame Chris with scum seeing multiple rooms suspecting him and backfired tremendously.

Second question did any rooms have major discussions on suspects other than those 4?

Ok so all teams aside from Chris answered

Mzero x Sultan Chris
Ulti x Red Chris Death
Dumey x JC Chris Ulti
FD x Kirby Chris Death Ulti
Corrik x Isquen None
Chris x Death ?
Lopen x Lea Chris Dumey Death Ulti

Literally every team in the game that talked suspected Chris

Unless scum paired with scum I'd say its nearly impossible Chris was NKed and Death was shot directly as scum would know at least two town suspected him heavily and that combined with general vibe, I really doubt he's killed.

Also our team was the ONLY one who suspected Dumey.

Very curious.

Gordon

I'm sorta kicking around whether Kirby x Lea x Peaf makes sense

I'll have to think about it

Anyone who hasn't answered the previous question please do for more data

As many people who can answer that please do. I need to know.

Question

Did anyone analyze last night thinking one of the following. If so how many

- Chris was likely scum
- Dumey was likely scum
- Death was likely scum
- Ulti was likely scum

Just wondering

I would volunteer to pair with mzero but I want the power to murder people

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Maybe ulti has just never spent the night phase reading and analyzing the game, so this feels like magic to him the way modern science would in the 1800s.

Hahaha. This is hilarious by the way

Well played

red13n posted...

Hell if they claim bodyguard you still don't shoot them

... yes you do

You can push the narrative of "Chris was targeted by nk night 1 he's town"

I also kinda doubt the setup has roleblocker but you assuming it's a given is odd