Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 468: South Carerdddd (The D stands for Dementia)

(+) Yeah! (+)

Like they can huff their chest about all that stuff passing if they want, but....of course it passed. It was all worded in a way designed to pass in a low engagement election. And it WAS low engagement, Texas votes weren't even a blip on the radar for most people. It was all performative.

I don't expect Texas to suddenly vote blue, hell I doubt there's even much of a chance for a Senate win there next year (it's possible, but if Crockett decides to run it's lost. She is good and popular in her district, but she loses statewide. Worried she's mistaking national popularity for having a chance), but on the house side these maps could bite them in the ass, something that the new California map doesn't look like it's going to have to worry about.

Poking in to say I disagreement somewhat with how MTG is being labeled here. I could be wrong, but my view on her is not that she's just another politician seeing the way the tides are going and putting herself in the best position - but rather that she was a true MAGA believer who has become disenchanted by realizing the movement was all lies. So I think what we're seeing from her has a ring of honesty to it. She believed in drain the swamp, and has seen how much of the swamp Includes Republicans.

Doesn't make her less shitty, per se, but I do believe she just has less party loyalty than actual political beliefs.

However one thinks about MTG, the thoughts should not be charitable or sympathetic in any shape or form. She's poison.

colliding posted...

She's poison.

https://youtu.be/j5ME0aPNTVE?si=JpxQdYHfxFPaYk7i

?

UshiromiyaEva posted...

I present to you the definitive Getty Image of 2025.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/6/6cb5e413.jpg

Trump looks like he carerdddd a lot about that poor guy

Poison for sure - but I don't think her actions are unsurprising. She represents actual MAGA - not the politicking other Republicans do to hold onto power while the beast they created tweets about South Carerddd

Looking at the NJ map for 2027 and New Jersey could end up one of the most solid blue states in the entire country.

Chris Christie was a last hurrah.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

but rather that she was a true MAGA believer who has become disenchanted by realizing the movement was all lies

This is possible but it means she is exceedingly, almost unimaginably, stupid.

The reason why I don't think it's true is because she gained heavy notoriety during the rise of Trumpism. She was riding the wave and it was working really well for her. It's unlikely that she agreed with everything in the movement for nearly 10 years, and then only now realized it was BS. It's far more likely that she recognized how valuable the movement was to her, and now she doesn't see that value anymore.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

And it WAS low engagement, Texas votes weren't even a blip on the radar for most people. It was all performative.

Right, but my point is that if the rest of the country was able to get out for things but Texas didn't engage, I'm not getting excited about next year.

Is it possible? Yeah, definitely. Would I love to see it? Absolutely. Do I have any faith? Nope.

foolm0r0n posted...

This is possible but it means she is exceedingly, almost unimaginably, stupid.

Good point. There's nothing to suggest MTG is particularly uninformed or unintelligent, at least as long as we ignore most things she has ever said or done.

That's an imaginably stupid response, for contrast

FFDragon posted...

somehow I don't think this will apply to trans youth for some reason

well, are the parents pro or anti trans? it'll be case by case

Mamdani said AOC 2028 let's ball

Vacation extended to the 16th by Mike Johnson.

I hope history does not look fondly on that man.

Mike Johnson is such a loser

How are they not making the fact that the house has refused to meet in 6+ weeks the most important focal point of the shutdown?

It used to be that when the house passed a no-compromise bill that didn't have enough support to clear the Senate we would call that "Dead on Arrival" and insist that they keep working.

It also used to be that if something failed a Senate vote so many times they would actually try to craft a compromise in the Senate. Then they could pass it in the upper chamber and have something for the House to consider as another means of stopping the shutdown.

This is such a fucking stupid shutdown.

FFDragon posted...

I hope history does not look fondly on that man.

History won't know who he is. It was busy those days.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

How are they not making the fact that the house has refused to meet in 6+ weeks the most important focal point of the shutdown?

It used to be that when the house passed a no-compromise bill that didn't have enough support to clear the Senate we would call that "Dead on Arrival" and insist that they keep working.

It also used to be that is something happened a Senate vote so many times they would actually try to craft a compromise in the Senate so they could pass something in the upper chamber and have something for the house to consider as another means of stopping the shutdown.

This is such a fucking stupid shutdown.

The House decided the Senate calling things "dead on arrival" was too powerful and decided to up their game by making so that whatever the Senate passes will not even arrive in the House, because the House isn't meeting. So the Senate bill, if it gets passed, will be dead before arrival.

But yes, the House refusing to meet is absolutely ridiculous. This is their job, and among the worst times they could take a 6-week vacation.

Seems like a great time, objectively. What are the downsides for them?

foolm0r0n posted...

Seems like a great time, objectively. What are the downsides for them?

People correctly calling them out resulting in extensive negative taking points during next year's midterms?

If they step out of line they won't even be in the midterms due to getting primary'd by Trump, or maybe even assassinated.

Pretty much all Republicans are just absolutely fucked right now. All the basic rules are out the window. It's desperate survival. The shutdown at least keeps them out of the spotlight.

Senate Dems offered a resolution that was exactly the same as the Rs today except ACA benefits lasted until after the midterms, exactly as they currently are.

Reps rejected. Of course they did, because they know if those benefits are on the ballot even more next year then they're fucked.

However, this also fucks them NOW because their arguments about "illegals" and "transes" have been completely shot.

So yeah they're just more and more fucked on this. Their denial that this election mattered while they just lost 2 GA seats by 25 points because the electricity bill was higher is not going to age well for them.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

However, this also fucks them NOW because their arguments about "illegals" and "transes" have been completely shot.

That wont change anything. They will keep saying that is what Dems want and lie about it being in the bill.

They are actively withholding SNAP funding while arguing that its Dems that stopped SNAP.

The difference now is that a lot of people just aren't buying it anymore, and are getting more and more annoyed by it.

They are not gaining any ground on public sentiment.

Their goal of shifting the blame to Dems has not shown ANY indication it is working, and in fact seems to be backfiring.

They have boxed themselves into a corner on SNAP, because the court order makes them own it. Complying with it now puts a spotlight on the fact they couldve always done it. Keeping it in litigation allows them to blame the courts and hope the Dems cave and get them off the hook.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/fe4fc578.png

Astonishing numbers here.

Most notably, actual New York voters do not give a fuck about Israel. That actual voter to respondent gap, geeze.

Abortion issue seemed tragic for a moment before remembering New York doesn't actually have this problem.

Progressive challenger in the Seattle Mayor race is making extreme gains with an extremely drawn out mail voting count. From 5 points down to 1.8 with plenty left to count.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/00098093.jpg

DDHQ called it yesterday for Harrell, but they took it down.

It also shows that Cuomo's priorities were far closer to the average voter than Mamdani, except for the top 2 issues. The real conclusion is that affordability dominates all issues. You can't run a campaign of nationalist fear if the people are starving (UNLESS you make nationalism the solution to starvation, which is very successful historically, but US politicians aren't doing that at all)

foolm0r0n posted...

It also shows that Cuomo's priorities were far closer to the average voter than Mamdani, except for the top 2 issues. The real conclusion is that affordability dominates all issues. You can't run a campaign of nationalist fear if the people are starving (UNLESS you make nationalism the solution to starvation, which is very successful historically, but US politicians aren't doing that at all)

There's another factor that can't be discounted that isn't here though: Cuomo is a sex pest. They didn't poll that issue lol.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Progressive challenger in the Seattle Mayor race is making extreme gains with an extremely drawn out mail voting count. From 5 points down to 1.8 with plenty left to count.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/00098093.jpg

DDHQ called it yesterday for Harrell, but they took it down.

Oh shit, I was pretty certain it was in the bag for Harrell (who sucks ass btw, I was really disappointed by this)

This is perhaps, I say with confidence, some of the worst optics, if not THE worst optics given the timing, in presidential history.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/e/e601a0dc.jpg

This is shaping up to be Trump's Afghanistan pullout.

They (Dems) just need to airdrop these printouts over every house before midterms.

They (GOP) have just chosen to completely and unequivocally own Americans starving

UshiromiyaEva posted...

This is shaping up to be Trump's Afghanistan pullout.

The single greatest thing a president has done in our lifetimes?

I of course mean from a public perception/polling standpoint.

this is all really interesting to me because at least in terms of optics, trump normally has a decent political instinct about what plays to about half of the electorate. the whole snap thing is a wildly egregious misstep from him

It's almost like he doesn't expect public opinion to ever matter anymore

that's true, if he's decided this is his last go around he probably doesn't give a shit about anything but what satisfies him personally. i thought about him too much like a typical politician for a moment i suppose

So what happens if the administration just doesn't pay for SNAP anyway? We've already established that Trump himself has absolute immunity, and he can pardon anyone else who would be punished. What reason is there to believe the court order will be followed?

ivysnow posted...

this is all really interesting to me because at least in terms of optics, trump normally has a decent political instinct about what plays to about half of the electorate. the whole snap thing is a wildly egregious misstep from him

He doesn't have a mind anymore, he does what Steven Miller tells him to do.

Paratroopa1 posted...

Oh shit, I was pretty certain it was in the bag for Harrell (who sucks ass btw, I was really disappointed by this)

People are now saying Wilson is the favorite. However there won't be another update until Monday.

It's a taboo word but some of these places DO actually need some type of election reform lol.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

It's a taboo word but some of these places DO actually need some type of election reform lol.

Not sure what you mean by this

It shouldn't take this long to count! My understanding is they do actually have the ballots already, they just aren't counting anything over the weekend. Really don't think that should happen given how insanely conspiratorial some of these people get.

If I'm mistaken and they're still WAITING on ballots, then of course that's different.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

My understanding is they do actually have the ballots already,

Your understanding is incorrect. We are a mail-in balloting state and all votes need to be counted by hand. People are given time to fix their ballots if there are mistakes, too. It takes time, this is normal, the fucked up thing is people expecting immediate gratification the moment the polls close

Though the vote counts SHOULD continue through the weekend; I assume there must be someone who's not in though so they don't do a vote count update. I don't know exactly, when I worked elections I did work the weekend after the election but I don't know who does vote count updates

Understandable, my beef was mainly with them not counting over the weekend rather than the count actually taking time, if that's not normal and is happening for some extraneous reason.

Yeah, I'm not really sure why there's no update until monday, it SHOULD be all hands on deck but I guess there's some interruption over the weekend. But yeah all the people doing ballot counting will be doing it over the weekend.

We still get new ballots in about 4-5 days after election, so having all the votes counted right away just isn't possible. Mail takes time. Speeding up the process would cost a lot more money for no real benefit because the elections aren't certified for a while anyway.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

How are they not making the fact that the house has refused to meet in 6+ weeks the most important focal point of the shutdown?

It used to be that when the house passed a no-compromise bill that didn't have enough support to clear the Senate we would call that "Dead on Arrival" and insist that they keep working.

It also used to be that if something failed a Senate vote so many times they would actually try to craft a compromise in the Senate. Then they could pass it in the upper chamber and have something for the House to consider as another means of stopping the shutdown.

This is such a fucking stupid shutdown.

Yeah when I tell people Im notnoptimistic this is what Im talking about. Last time theybwere talking and working on compromises from day 1 and it still took 35 days.

We havent even GOTTEN to day 1 yet.

https://x.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1986983537858228574