Current Events > One American century was enough

(+) Yeah! (+)

This is the american century of humiliation

This is the Chinese century probably

UnsteadyOwl posted...

This is the Chinese century probably

Yeah, that's my guess unless we do something moronic like nuke them to the stone age. Though I bet Trump is planning that for his second year.

Has there ever been a case of a major world power voluntarily lobotomizing itself as Trump/Republicans are currently doing to the US?

Sure, there's the standard decline and fall story of decadent empires, but that's slower and not a deliberate choice to decline vs. not decline.

UnsteadyOwl posted...

This is the Chinese century probably

and thats a good thing. The rest of the world suffered at the hands of the western powers. China will treat them better. by the end of the century I see many nations become much better off than before.

EPR-radar posted...

Has there ever been a case of a major world power voluntarily lobotomizing itself as Trump/Republicans are currently doing to the US?

Sure, there's the standard decline and fall story of decadent empires, but that's slower and not a deliberate choice to decline vs. not decline.

It really is damn embarrassing. Virtually every single move done by the United States under Trump has the predictable and obvious consequence of making China look much more reliable and dependable than we are. I know that many of the upper-level leadership of the GOP are really just Russian intelligence assets, and I could buy that they might be so stupid they dont realize that theyre just doing Russias bidding for them, but at this point the consequences are still incredibly fucking obvious and yet they *still* keep doing Putins bidding for them.

It really is going to be the century of China, and Chinas biggest asset is Donald Trump.

Yeah it's insane the country literally wants this downfall.

Ubergeneral3 posted...

and thats a good thing. The rest of the world suffered at the hands of the western powers. China will treat them better. by the end of the century I see many nations become much better off than before.

Doubtful.

That said, does this century need to belong to any specific country? It would be better to have a century where no country really dominates the world.

Ubergeneral3 posted...

and thats a good thing. The rest of the world suffered at the hands of the western powers. China will treat them better. by the end of the century I see many nations become much better off than before.

Do you actually believe that? I'm sure the people of Hong Kong would disagree.

EPR-radar posted...

Has there ever been a case of a major world power voluntarily lobotomizing itself as Trump/Republicans are currently doing to the US?

Yes, actually. It's quite common - virtually all powerful empires in history were brought down from within by corruption and decay. It's very rare to see one fall any other way.

The cycle of empire is an oft-studied phenomenon and empires all tend to follow the same lifecycle.

The first step is the rise and expansion of the young empire. A new power, backed by moneyed interests who want to see the destruction of the remnants of the old order fund a young, upstart state which fights its way to dominance. This period involves a lot of bloody warfare, backstabbing, politicking, and conquest. Old powers past their prime are swept aside, as citizens hopeful for change and a better life flock to the banner of the new power. The cost in blood and treasure is high - sometimes extreme - but the empire eventually establishes itself as a regional power, if not a global one. Economically, the empire will often drive itself to near-bankruptcy at this point, but after it stabilizes a sudden burst in productivity, combined with prudent fiscal policy, typically sees the debt (in terms of its ratio to GDP if not actual amount) diminish quickly.

The second step (some models divide this into two different steps - growth, then prosperity) is the golden age, where the empire shifts from a warmongering state to a ruling one, with administrators replacing conquerors as rulers of the realm. Peace reigns, laws and rules (which are typically quite fair for their time) are created and enforced. There is a burst of productivity and creativity, as industry flourishes under the new order. The economy roars - sometimes sputtering here and there, but overall on an unmistakeable upward trajectory. Life is good for the people of the realm, as wealth inequality is typically low. At its peak, the empire uses its massive clout - typically a combination of an extremely powerful military, one of the biggest economies in the world, and cultural outreach - to cultivate allies and cow enemies. Soft- and hard-power is wielded judiciously to shape the region, or sometimes the whole world, into a shape more conducive to how the empire wants to do business.

Part three is when things start going south. The population of the empire at this point has often spiked thanks to the prosperity of the previous eras, with both immigration and native birthrates high, leading to a more unwieldy populace that can stretch resources thin. The empire starts to get comfortable resting on its laurels, while ambitious, power-hungry, and greedy men from within learn how to exploit the laws of the land for their own profit. This frequently involves the hording of land and/or critical resources, creating monopolies (real or de facto, it scarcely matters). This might be the doing of the nobility, the business class, the oligarchs, or some other privileged caste. More and more wealth and resources are horded in private hands, which then seek to consolidate their gains amongst fewer and fewer people. Wealth inequality soars and a financial bubble starts to form. The state is now a much weaker entity in its own lands, struggling for influence and power with both regional governments and private interests. Intrigue at the court is commonplace, as interests compete to bend the ruler's ear and set policy in a way that will benefit them.

The fourth step is the downfall. This is often, but not always, precipitated by a particularly inept ruler taking the throne. Poor fiscal policy finally causes the empire's now-precarious financial situation to collapse, and an economic crash occurs. The ruler tries to fix the situation by generating capital however he can - printing money and credit, increasing taxes, demanding tributes and tithes from protectorates and territories, nationalizing key industries, launching ill-conceived wars of conquest. These invariably don't work and make the situation even worse. If the empire is lucky, a competent leader will launch a palace coup and replace the old leader, short-circuiting the process and returning the empire back to step 2 where massive reforms refresh and rejuvenate the empire. However, the powers that be are now so entrenched and find the status quo so profitable that they will typically see off any such coup attempts, violently if necessary.

The fifth and final step is collapse. The empire falls apart as the influence of the central power finally dwindles to nothing. Allies flee and seek new patrons; distant territories may rebel or declare independence. Adversaries take advantage, picking off foreign holdings or establishing new centres of power in domains once held by the empire. Civil wars and revolutions take hold and shatter what little power is left. The now-vestigial empire is reduced to a shell of its former self, a pack of squabbling colonies ruled over by princelings and warlords. Eventually, the empire either fades into the annals of history, stabilizes as a much smaller and less powerful entity, or some suitable visionary arises to begin the cycle anew.

This is not a new idea, either. Ibn Khaldun, an Islamic scholar from the 14th century, observed this trend at the end of the Islamic Golden Age. It accurately portrays the life cycle of Rome, various Chinese empires, Mesopotamia, Russia, and Britain.

And yes, it's looking an awful lot like the US is following the script too.

Ubergeneral3 posted...

China will treat them better. by the end of the century I see many nations become much better off than before.

I struggle to name a single people that China has treated well since they emerged as a major economic power this century. I'm sure the Tibetans, Hong Kong democrats, Uighurs, and Taiwanese would probably disagree with your assertion, to say nothing of China's neighbours in and around the South China Sea.

darkknight109 posted...

Yes, actually. It's quite common - virtually all powerful empires in history were brought down from within by corruption and decay. It's very rare to see one fall any other way.

The cycle of empire is an oft-studied phenomenon and empires all tend to follow the same lifecycle.

The first step is the rise and expansion of the young empire. A new power, backed by moneyed interests who want to see the destruction of the remnants of the old order fund a young, upstart state which fights its way to dominance. This period involves a lot of bloody warfare, backstabbing, politicking, and conquest. Old powers past their prime are swept aside, as citizens hopeful for change and a better life flock to the banner of the new power. The cost in blood and treasure is high - sometimes extreme - but the empire eventually establishes itself as a regional power, if not a global one. Economically, the empire will often drive itself to near-bankruptcy at this point, but after it stabilizes a sudden burst in productivity, combined with prudent fiscal policy, typically sees the debt (in terms of its ratio to GDP if not actual amount) diminish quickly.

The second step (some models divide this into two different steps - growth, then prosperity) is the golden age, where the empire shifts from a warmongering state to a ruling one, with administrators replacing conquerors as rulers of the realm. Peace reigns, laws and rules (which are typically quite fair for their time) are created and enforced. There is a burst of productivity and creativity, as industry flourishes under the new order. The economy roars - sometimes sputtering here and there, but overall on an unmistakeable upward trajectory. Life is good for the people of the realm, as income inequality is typically low. At its peak, the empire uses its massive clout - typically a combination of an extremely powerful military, one of the biggest economies in the world, and cultural outreach - to cultivate allies and cow enemies. Soft- and hard-power is wielded judiciously to shape the region, or sometimes the whole world, into a shape more conducive to how the empire wants to do business.

Part three is when things start going south. The population of the empire at this point has often spiked thanks to the prosperity of the previous eras, with both immigration and native birthrates high, leading to a more unwieldy populace that can stretch resources thin. The empire starts to get comfortable resting on its laurels, while ambitious, power-hungry, and greedy men from within learn how to exploit the laws of the land for their own profit. This frequently involves the hording of land and/or critical resources, creating monopolies (real or de facto, it scarcely matters). This might be the doing of the nobility, the business class, the oligarchs, or some other privileged caste. More and wealth and resources are horded in private hands, which then seek to consolidate their gains amongst fewer and fewer people. Wealth inequality soars and a financial bubble starts to form. The state is now a much weaker entity in its own lands, struggling for influence and power with both regional governments and private interests. Intrigue at the court is commonplace, as interests compete to bend the ruler's ear and set policy in a way that will benefit them.

The fourth step is the downfall. This is often, but not always, precipitated by a particularly inept ruler taking the throne. Poor fiscal policy finally causes the empire's now-precarious financial situation to collapse, and an economic crash occurs. The ruler tries to fix the situation by generating capital however he can - printing money and credit, increasing taxes, demanding tributes and tithes from protectorates and territories, nationalizing key industries, launching ill-conceived wars of conquest. These invariably don't work and make the situation even worse. If the empire is lucky, a competent leader will launch a palace coup and replace the old leader, short-circuiting the process and returning the empire back to step 2 where massive reforms refresh and rejuvenate the empire. However, the powers that be are now so entrenched and find the status quo so profitable that they will typically see off any such coup attempts, violently if necessary.

The fifth and final step is collapse. The empire falls apart as the influence of the central power finally dwindles to nothing. Allies flee and seek new patrons; distant territories may rebel or declare independence. Adversaries take advantage, picking off foreign holdings or establishing new centres of power in domains once held by the empire. Civil wars and revolutions take hold and shatter what little power is left. The now-vestigial empire is reduced to a shell of its former self, a pack of squabbling colonies ruled over by princelings and warlords. Eventually, the empire either fades into the annals of history, stabilizes as a much smaller and less powerful entity, or some suitable visionary arises to begin the cycle anew.

This is not a new idea, either. Ibn Khaldun, an Islamic scholar from the 14th century, observed this trend at the end of the Islamic Golden Age. It accurately portrays the life cycle of Rome, various Chinese empires, Mesopotamia, Russia, and Britain.

And yes, it's looking an awful lot like the US is following the script too.

Make u think man

Ubergeneral3 posted...

China will treat them better.

No.

another 99+ years to tag along